The Great-Manhattan-Crash: New York Vs. Detroit

Aren't you the idiot buying Swiss Francs? Nice bank run possibility there. :)

swiss francs and gold. the mix provided return of 7% YTD. beats T-bills and most other asset classes.

Fair enough, maybe Swiss Francs may have some troubles, but the gold hedge should secure substantial losses.

Nothing wrong with another 40-50% drop in Manhattan real estate. As we are in deflation, be patient we're going to have low 90's level prices much sooner than most expect.

The question is who's going to be buying? Taxes in the U.S. and the city of NY will be astronomical in a few years, then you have all the new regulations in the financial realm, add salary limits and the 250K + which will be double sawed in the tax bracket.

Fair enough, 100-150K for a ncie studio , and 170-250K for the 1 bedroom doorman building.

These of course maybe "high prices". If things get to worse case scenario, well Manhattan could be foreclosure central.

Just be patient, lots of downward movement to come....

What i wonder is how the world the co-op boards will be able to maintain the immense maintenance dues?

Furthermore, I wonder if Real Estate Brokers are just as delusional with property as brokers on Wall Street were with equities 6 months back........

comments, thought?

and btw, YTD Swiss Franc, CHF is only down 5% vs. dollar. Beats the -25% DJIA beating.

lol, you are comparing swiss francs to the djia? who not just compare swiss francs too....dollars, which you could have owned with a lot less headache.

but the bigger point is, yes, i agree that new york real estate is going to continue to fall, but no, that doesn't make new york city comparable to detroit. the comparison is just laughable. the car industry completely dominated detroit's economy in a way that finance never has in nyc.

I been in Detroit downtown and there is not even a remote chance of comparison. That city is far gone down the drain, plus the run to the suburbs has destroyed most of what is left. No point in comparing Detroit to Manhattan

by year end 09, i'm pretty confident CHF will outperform USD on %.

my comment is i believe that NYC is systemically linked to the world of finance.

you break down finance in Manhattan and it has a domino effect on sub-sectors. If one wants to argue that Manhattan, in particular is not systemically linked by +/- equation of the Financial realm, kindly speak.

I think the city is so dependent on incomes on Wall Street that a breakdown in the industry which is ongoing (for some time to come) will be detrimental to city as a hole.

Sure, who am I? just a simple guy with a simple plan. i could be completely wrong, just a thought........

HimWhoKnows, interesting that you bring up Detroit, a city that has totally lost is major economic engine. The similar comparison was also made on CNBC a month or so back by long time folks on WS.

Investment wise, I'm looking at commodities or equities in countries mostly outside the US. Way too many Regs & policy changes being thrown at the US economy to make investment decisions at this time. There are other markets out there where one need not worry about Cap & trade, rising corporate, dividend & capital gains tax rates, health care reform and heaven knows what else.

HWK - finance definitely accounts for a disproportionate share of income in the City but certainly not overall employment figures. The reversion of the size of the industry to roughly 1998 levels will have its impact but will not wreck the city. There is a lot to the finance industry that is healthy and doesn't get spoken about: global transaction services, merger & advisory, retail brokerage, municipal debt underwriting, etc. that while slower, will certainly come back. What won't return to recent levels is the securitization side of the business which has shed many jobs for good. NYC is the center of many industries, not just finance. Media, publishing, cancer research, all have robust homes in the city - as do over a dozen universities, dance groups, theater, movie production, music production, etc. Things will get worse, but we will be OK. There is only one Manhattan!

@OTNYC

i only hope for the best in NYC,as the people here are wonderful individuals. I´m an internationalist myself, so surely I think we have to readjust the traditional manhattan landscape.

there´s a trickle down effect, and why can´t the M&A , advisory, retail brokerage, etc be headquartered in a different region of the world?

are you telling me the leading minds are going to stay in an environment where regulation, high tax rates, and unstable political influence co-exist?

History shows that money goes where money is. and the United States is surely not where the money is, the money has been transferred east.

Take away the 7digit wall street incomes and you´ll quickly evaporate a large portion of the 7digit apartments. History also shows that no matter how remarkable a city maybe, history proves that over time things emerge and things decline. Yes NYC is remarkable, but it cannot maintain the current price levels listed on this site.

We´re not even half way through the crisis. Yes culture and arts are a significant aspect of NY, but how many artists can afford current price level? NYC incomes will be the same as incomes across the country in a few years. Big players are already positing themselves with access to markets in asia and emerging south america. That in my opinion is where the money will be post-crisis.

I´m sorry to say this, but why in the world would a company headquarter itself in NYC when it can get large tax breaks and high skilled open visa solutions in other regions of the world?

Welcome to globalization, high to fly, deep to fall. People better understand the ropes of internationalism and what is to come in the new world or they´ll be left in the dust.

HWK - "unstable" compared to what? :)

NYC is the most open to international influence of any city in the world, except maybe London. The US elected a black guy in a secret ballot democratic election and had a peaceful transition of power. I am not asking you to like his policies, but we have a stable democracy and rule of law.

Most places in the world do not.

I'll keep my money here, thanks.

The comparison he's making is not that NYC = Detroit....it's that the rate of change can be comparable. I don't think finance is as dead as the US auto industry...But making $500k two years out of business school may be as dead as the US auto industry, which may make NYC prices fall to 10x rents that will fall 20%. Call it the $6,000 x 8 for a nice 2 bed, which would still be more expensive than anywhere in the US...and it will be 60% off the top...and will still be a premium to Boston, Chicago. HimWHoKnows knows that everything that set NYC flying in relation to the rest of the country since say 1994 is coming unwound. I used to say 2002 prices would do it, but now we are probably looking at 1998 prices...Which means the $3mm seven-room apartment could be $1mm before its all said and done....The $1.5mm 2 bed with dining in a nice hood...call it $500k or $600k. The developers are FUCKED. They are going to crush the market by flooding it with rentals and at the same time slashing their asks.

Happyowner, what happened to London real estate?

The comparison he's making is not that NYC = Detroit....it's that the rate of change can be comparable. I don't think finance is as dead as the US auto industry...But making $500k two years out of business school may be as dead as the US auto industry, which may make NYC prices fall to 10x rents that will fall 20%. Call it the $6,000 x 8 for a nice 2 bed, which would still be more expensive than anywhere in the US...and it will be 60% off the top...and will still be a premium to Boston, Chicago. HimWHoKnows knows that everything that set NYC flying in relation to the rest of the country since say 1994 is coming unwound. I used to say 2002 prices would do it, but now we are probably looking at 1998 prices...Which means the $3mm seven-room apartment could be $1mm before its all said and done....The $1.5mm 2 bed with dining in a nice hood...call it $500k or $600k. The developers are FUCKED. They are going to crush the market by flooding it with rentals and at the same time slashing their asks.

Happyowner, what happened to London real estate?

London real estate - I own there, and before purchasing, looked into the history of the neighborhood and Greater London with respect to recession/depression. Many parts of Central London were owned by a few entities - they own the freehold and the building/flat owners were really leaseholders. This has changed significantly over the last 2 decades, in part due to laws that made it easier for leaseholders to buy the freehold. Prices were depressed right through the depression and well into 70s (echoing New York City compounded by the Blitz) - prices were very low compared to income and then shot right up until the late 80s when they crashed hard. Steady upward climb since then, with the usual stories of spectacular increases in gentrifying/ied neighborhoods (Chelsea = Upper West Side, Fulham/Islington = brownstone Brooklyn). A few differences in financing properties - fixed rate mortgages are not available, the most one could get a fixed rate for would be 5 years - I believe this leads to properties turning over faster in a downturn because people's costs may escalate if interest rates goes up. Right now, the Bank of England interest rates are at historical lows, so people's costs are decreasing because most are on mortgages that closely track BofE rates. I'd say in central London, prices have dropped 20% (maybe even more for trophy properties bought mostly by Russian oligarchs).

Another huge generalization - the Brits are famous for frugality (at least old school types) and even if over-extended on mortgages are able to cut back further than Americans. Brits also have the highest rate of home ownership compared to Western Europe and a lot of things will be cut before people walk away from their castle.

christ. guess i'm waiting til 2012 until i can afford.

A couple of points that may be interesting to you:

1 - Today's FT has an article on page 19 of the Life and Arts section looking at Detroit's role not as one-off failed metropolis, but as canary in the coal mine for urban USA in general. Intersting to see the comparison becoming more widespread
2 - Bit of an over simplification on London properties. There was no "steady upward climb" as NYC 10023 puts it, London real estate shot up like an eagle with a firework up its ass in the late 90s till now.
3 - A comparison of London and NYC real estate is not really apples to apples as property taxes in London are a fraction of what they are in NYC and you get aid if you are unemployed. For instance, the highest property tax band in Westminster (Knightsbridge, etc) is about $3k per year. If you lose your job, or your income goes down, property tax won't clobber you like it will here
Just my $0.02

"London real estate shot up like an eagle with a firework up its ass in the late 90s till now." That's kinda like NYC. "Property taxes in London are a fraction of what they are in NYC and you get aid if you are unemployed."

Honestly is it even a discussion that NYC is going to hold up better than -50%? Worse if interest rates can't be held lower and worse still if rents really retrace. Seriously its just over.

gopher_1: in most central & sw london & nw london nabes, the price appreciation overall is a little less than equiv. areas in nyc - whether the appreciation came in fits and starts or steadily, i haven't looked into as much. Property taxes in London are lower, but you would never send your kid to state school. The proportion of middle-class and up population that uses private education (up to end of HS and then universities are state-funded) is much higher than NYC met. area.

There are good state schools in London(look at 'nappy valley' in Wandsworth for example), but I agree they are few and far between; only slightly more available than good state schools in Manhattan. Admittedly, most Londoners I know went to private school (doesn't stop them from pretending to be 'salt of the earth cockney working-class heroes')

himwhoknows: I never participate in these type of discussions on public forums. But... Swiss franc?? makes me cringe..I am a long term dollar bear. I like Canadian dollar and Australian dollar and their companies related to energy, mining and minerals. What say you?

p09 - I like Canadian dollar and Australian dollar and their companies related to energy, mining and minerals.

You, like Schiff, forget that debt deflation hits commodities as well.

R86 - Good point re: London. With a strong dollar and weaker London real estate, it might be a good time to get my pied-a-terre there.

Y'all are ignoring the fact that America is as good as it gets (have you read about those Swiss franc mortgages to Poles who earn in zlotys? Yikes.) and NYC is as good as America gets.

No, I don't forget. I clearly realize that is a distinct possibility. I just like these two ideas as part of a larger portfolio. I am am too deep in this to make it part of my public discussion. just curious what HWK thinks of this idea with regards to CHF.

R86 - Honestly is it even a discussion that NYC is going to hold up better than -50%? Worse if interest rates can't be held lower and worse still if rents really retrace. Seriously its just over.

Boy are you a real Debbie Downer today. Cheer up. Spring is coming. Find a date. Get laid. You live in the best city in the world. :)

Ha listen I am happy. Back in the 1990s when the math told you it was time to buy, I didn't have the money. Luckily after 2005, when I did have the money, something always got in the way or told me it didn't make sense. So I'm the happiest guy around. Its not happy or sad, its just a market that goes up and everything tells us now it goes down...a lot.

Just an interesting anecdote. A friend just flew over London to NYC. Major airlines. Normally one of the busiest routes in existence.

less than 25% full.

Mind you, I've taken a bunch of flights recently. Some just as crowded as a year ago, some less, some more. Granted, there are fewer flights around right now, so that could keep some of the "crowds".

But under 25% on a NYC - London flight?

Wowzuh.

"Y'all are ignoring the fact that America is as good as it gets (have you read about those Swiss franc mortgages to Poles who earn in zlotys? Yikes.) and NYC is as good as America gets."

So is Katz's deli. And then can charge 3x the regular price of a sandwich... but they can't charge 30x.

I believe NYC will stay at the top, sure. But the mountain just got chopped in half.

Nobody is ignoring that fact... you are simply ignoring that being on top means you are guaranteed a certain level of price. With your logic, just about any price is justified. That makes little sense.

nyc: Katz's deli

Ooh! Thanks for reminding me. Gotta go back there this week. Yet another reason NYC stays on top!! :)

At any rate, stuff may happen, but I'll ride out the storm here, thanks, and not in the Swiss Franc or German gov't bond or any of the other stupid stuff mentioned here by the sky is falling crowd.

@ happy owner-

there's more Gold in Switzerland than any other country. I think there's a good chance the UK or USA gets a AAA downgrade on debt before you see a major Swiss bank fail.

Listen, although the Swiss Franc is no longer fully backed by gold, i'd guess if you add all the quantity in the vaults it's at 20-30% CPH:Gold ratio........

Whats going on with the dollar is temporary, as soon as an appetitite for risk returns. WATCH OUT!

HWK - although the Swiss Franc is no longer fully backed by gold, i'd guess if you add all the quantity in the vaults it's at 20-30% CPH:Gold ratio.

Ok, let's go back to Econ 101 - the value of a fiat currency is based on the economic productivity of the country behind it, not the amount of jewelry sitting in a vault somewhere.

Put another way, we could solve the "Gold in Switzerland" problem with one of our nuclear subs and maybe one of those new special forces units Obama's gonna be funding, 'cause our economy is more productive and dynamic and can afford these things, and theirs can't.

Switzerland is a small country dependent on (1) banking and finance and (2) selling expensive luxury good watches to rich people for ostentatious display.

Yup, sounds like a winner to me!! :)

in that case the dollar is absolutely @#$#@$ , we've outsourced our factories to China..FYI.

Look it's my decision to hold CPH and gold vs. realestate/equtiies. your free to hold whatever you wish.
i dont think you should critique investments of others. worry about yourself and the double digit losses year over year to come in Manhattan real estate through 2012.

any if must know the diversification. 25% gold, 25% CPH, 25% agriculture and 25% net short S&P500.

what is CPH? I know what CHF is, but not CPH

HWK - You don't have diversification. You have gold, and then the Swiss Franc - why? - because it is backed 20-30 percent by gold. Ha.

As for outsourcing to China - yeah, Apple has the ipod made there, we get the profits, they get a few pennies an hour. I have visited China. Trust me, you want to live here. You can't breathe the air in Datong province.

Productivity is brainpower, not assembly lines. The US university system is first in the world. No Chinese University breaks the top 50.

Maybe in 150 years things will change, but not now. Didja hear that Buffett's buying American?

The dollar is toast? Please explain how the world's reserve currency is a goner. My FX quotes show some very nice numbers for the dollar versus all other fiat currencies. You tell me that when risk appetite returns the dollar will drop. Mind if I quote you on that next time you print some bs sky is falling thread?

You know Peter Schiff and Jim Rodgers have been talking smack like yours for a few years about US stocks and real estate. So what did they do? They bought all kinds of commodity and commodity stocks that got whacked 70-80 percent instead of 10-50 percent. Wow. That must really bite. All that brainpower predicting the future, and the guy who just bought a 50-50 stock/bond mutual fund dollar cost averaging in their 401k lost less than a third of these geniuses.

Correction: I meant Datong city, in Shaanxi province. Don't want anyone nitpicking my post there. :)

happyowner, what u talking bout? Rogers made a fortune shorting financials, and companies like fannie mae. he also made a fortune on on china..buying china in mid 90's and still up...

i suggest you look at global imbalances...it's idiots like you who are in denial.
i could buy put options on happyowner i certainly would, as would others on this board:)

and not only that, but your so arrogant happyowner. one of the most arrogant, protectionist, and incompetent intellectual people i've heard from.

just cause of your statmeents, DOW is going BELOW 5000.

MARK THIS POST. I PROMISE DOW <5000.

THANKS.

"As for outsourcing to China - yeah, Apple has the ipod made there, we get the profits, they get a few pennies an hour. I have visited China. Trust me, you want to live here. You can't breathe the air in Datong province.

Productivity is brainpower, not assembly lines. The US university system is first in the world. No Chinese University breaks the top 50. " -happyowner

a lesson to HAPPYOWNER:

Don’t forget your employee is also your consumer. Better keep him wealthy.

*sure we can get gadgets made by next to nothing from China, but what does that matter if the USA has nobody left to buy them???

hint hint..what's to come.........

>Don’t forget your employee is also your consumer. Better keep him wealthy.<

I think Henry Ford thought along the same lines. :)

BTW, I totally agree. Gutting the US manufacturing base is one of the most ridiculous examples of zero foresight that I have seen. Perhaps our military manufacturing capability should be next. We could probably save $billions with such a move but then the already battered California economy would be in for another bath.

Of course, none of these actions have had any effect whatsoever on our tax base.

well put serge. it´s people with thoughts along the lines of happyowner that destroy there own nation.........

Happyowner you must be one of the clowns and masters of the universe who helped destroy the us economy.Peter Schiff was so right on in predicting the collapse of the us economy.They all laughed in his face but watch the following video....who's laughing now? This guy nailed it right on. We become the world economic power house because we produced. Now we financially engineer toxic waste thru debt and leverage
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

And take General Electric a bellweather of the American economy now at $6 a share and on the verge of collapse along with GM. The company founded by Thomas Edison prospered over the last 130 years because it always modeled itself after the American economy. America prospered, and so did GE. For the last three decades that meant shifting much of its emphasis from selling light bulbs, aircraft engines, sitcoms and appliances to selling credit - often to finance its own products, but more increasingly mortgages, commercial real estate and credit cards.

And like the rest of the country, GE flourished with its newfound emphasis on financial engineering, making it the place where it earned more than 40 percent of its profits. That is, until 2007, when the credit crunch began in earnest. And like most Americans, GE was slow to realize that the party was over.
You're such a jackass along with all the other so called experts like Kudlow and Art Laffer Reagan's supply side economist.

Before we kiss Schiff's ass lets remember he bulled emerging markets and energy stocks right up to the top and both are down more peak to trough than the S&P 500. That is not to say Reaganomics hasn't been proven dismally wrong or that NYC real estate has any hope of holding better than half its peak value.

HWK -- interesting points and I'm not altogether saying you're off base, but today, in the Times, the following article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/business/09dollar.html?hp

it does appear the dollar is in better shape than your beloved swiss franc, though I agree in a perfect economic world, the dollar would be in a free fall. Ah, China.

The Chinese feel the need to keep parity with the U$ to continue to finance their export engine. What do you foresee happening to change this?

also, how did HappyOwner become the protectionist in this conversation? I couldn't follow on that one HWK.

HappyOwner, we may have the best universities, but in what country were those students born?

Can anyone disagree with the following:

1) Fewer jobs on wall street -- fewer finance jobs overall, more based in other locations -- charlotte, london, hk, shanghai, mumbai
2) Compensation ratio changed -- great base salaries, more bonus tied up in clawbacks/unvested shares
3) derivative job losses at law firms, advertising firms, restaurants, nail salons due to less compensation on wall street
4) Eventual cuts in employment by ny city and state (maybe even layoffs of teachers, firefighters, etc.)

All this adds up to less demand for housing in NYC.

On the supply side:
1) Tons of new construction -- billyburg, HK, LIC, etc.
2) gentrified neighborhoods -- evill, ft. greene, bed stuy
3) serious distresss -- real estate broker flippers, overseas buyers, pied a terres, people who lost their jobs.

And this adds up to more supply

The unknowns:
1) us visa laws (h1b, etc).
2) us federal tax policy
3) nyc and ny state tax policy
4) underfunded pension liablilties
5) hedge fund redemptions - hedge funds being forced to sell their more liquid assets to cover redemptions (which they have so far delayed)
6) collapse of one or more developed or developing economy -- iceland, ireland, hungary, etc.
7) depreciation of US currency (extremely doubtful IMHO)
8) establishment of a "new" global financial center outside of NYC and London (shanghai or mumbai)
9) widespread labor protests in China -- to the point that the communist party loses control
10) liberalization of internal markets of China/India, so that consumers can spend more on credit - biggest/fastest way to save the global economy
11) bank nationalization -- probably not much of an unknown at this point.
12) how long before banks relieve builders of their obligations -- I could see new developments staying empty for 2-5 years as the bank and builders attempt to resolve legal issues.

jm: we may have the best universities, but in what country were those students born?

All over the world. America has had a special capacity to attract talent and integrate it into society. Remember, we are the only white majority country in the world to elect a black guy president in a legitimate secret ballot and have a peaceful transition of power. Like his policies or not, this is a unique multi-cultural achievement of integration, symbolizing our flexibility as a society. You don't see that in Switzerland, now do you? Or China.

As for NYC real estate: eh, I am an optimist. We probably have 3-5 years of some problems, but I'd still rather be here than almost anywhere else in the world. Dynamic cities always bounce back. Have you been to the new Alice Tully hall? The acoustics are great.

And thanks, I may be arrogant and incompetent, but I am certainly no protectionist!!!

I am totally ready to buy lots of guns, move somewhere with an easier climate and raise chickens. People will always want to have chickens and eggs.

@NYC10023, not bad not bad.

@Happyowner, just realize the party is "over". realize it's going to take a lot of time to rebuild americas internal model. the world of easy profits in finance and real estate is finished. It was all an illusion. All "imaginary" wealth unless you were one of the few who got out.

Again, i do agree that the Swiss Franc could have downside potential, but i'm firm that the UK and USA will have bigger troubles. I may diversify into one of the scandanavian currencies...

With that said, all it takes is for a Tbill auction to go short, and with the amount of debt we're issuing who knows when i a buyer won't show up.

then what? a run like never before.

Didn't read the entire thread but I agree that NYC RE priced will be very 'challenged' over the next two years. That said...

The premise of the thread as it regards Detroit is absurd. The auto manufacturers failed to innovate and/or re-invent themselves and allowed the unions to lock them into extremely high cost structures (one was likely the result of the other). Wall Street is 180 degrees different. Sure, some undeserving folks were paid extraordinary sums, but that was a 'one off'. If nothing else, Wall Street is EXTREMELY good at re-inveting itself and developing new markets. To say that they have run out of ideas is to admit to a lack of imagination and/or innovative prowess.

Is NYC RE going down in price, yes. Are there difficult times ahead, yes. Does Wall Street = auto makers, not a chance.

Walter-

why does the financial center of the world have to be in NY?

Why won't capital move to where capital is? Why won't capital move to where capital is favored?
China for. ex has 0% Capital tax on capital.

you know what tax brackets in NY are going to look like in a couple of years?

HWK.."why does the financial center of the world have to be in NY?"

It doesn't and I never said it did.

"Why won't capital move to where capital is? Why won't capital move to where capital is favored?
China for. ex has 0% Capital tax on capital."

Mexico is also 0%

The main point I tried (and apparently failed) to make was that the financial industry (where ever it might be geographically) is FAR from the US auto makers in terms of innovation and invention.

Bank of America is rescinding offers to people who require H1 sponsorship

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa648182-0c3d-11de-b87d-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

let's hope this does not spill over to the other banks or I will follow HWK in thinking that NYC is the next Detroit. Can't integrate immigrants if you won't let them work here.

@jim,

this is surely the decline, keeping away the world's best talent. You gotta short BAC on this one.

these protectionist ideals are insanity. DOW <5000. Mistake after mistake in Washington.

Wow, HWK is more doom than Dr. Doom!

Wall Street profits largely depend on using the highest leverage possible

Bear, Lehmann, Merrill, MS, GS they all had leveraged into the 30-40x of capital

Now B, L and M are gone, MS and GS became banks which are 12x leverage allowed.

So forgot about HUGE bonuses plus the oversight will be much tougher. That's not the news one wants to hear when owning RE in Manhattan.

HWK is right I espect 500 for SP500.
If we are lucky we see that in fall these year. If not, it will be a looooong drag

Himwhoknows is a star. I followed this guy's advice from the notes he posted in the year 2007 and made a small chump of change.

if himwhoknows says NY real estate is going lower, it is going LOWER.

walterh7...wrote Wall Street is EXTREMELY good at re-inveting itself and developing new markets. To say that they have run out of ideas is to admit to a lack of imagination and/or innovative prowess.

You mean at reinventing fraud and deception? Or greed and delusions of grandeur? My bad these aren't mutually exclusive! The party is over, this time they took down the whole world economy and it ain't over yet.

according to the Telegraph, London home prices fall another 55% from current levels....

Goldman Sachs may re-int there price target on manhattan to fall in line 55% from current levels (03-09), vs. their 44% decline call from level in January....

just something to reflect on...

i would expect GS to change the drop in price due to current regulatory and economic conditions. of course GS has not stated a 55% decline, that's my opinion.

Whether Manhattan gets cut in half or a third is a mostly a function of interest rates and is anyone's guess. The idea that something better than -50% can hold is anyone's fantasy. All the finance stars of 2006-2007 already own...the many of the renting rest got zeroed or are unemployed. Are there industries killing it these days enough to absorb the condo supply at offered prices? I don't think so.

The great Warren Buffet said NY will be the last to come out of The Great Depression II. Detroit already has properties on sale for $1.00 unlike over supplied NY.

NY lags because Wall Street lags. Wall Street lags because capital expenditures of other industries drive capital raising activities. So Wall Street doesn't turn up until other industries' fortunes get good enough for them to want to invest in their business.

HimWhoKnows, do you have an education? Your terrible writing style, grammatically incorrect screen name and constantly misusing the variances between their, there and they're is reflective of someone who, at best, has an 8th grade education.

Funny that you should attempt to throw your weight around on an anonymous discussion board.

Again, took FOUR YEARS for manhattan RE market to bottom after 1997 market crash.

And our stock crash was bigger... and our RE bubble MUCH bigger.

Won't be long before large corporations move headquarters east.

Afterall, aren't corporations in play to 'MAXIMIZE SHAREHOLDER VALUE'?

Remember this idiot?