What???? Sale at 685 West End Avenue #11-F

Hubby and I are looking at apartments about this size (unrenovated, and with the possibility of creating a kid's room) in this area in the $625K-$650K range. So give them $50K for the renovated kitchen, $25K for the his-n-hers bath -- that brings you to $700-$725K. So somebody paid $45K-70K for great water views and a W/D.

Not for us but it doesn't sound crazy crazy either.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

ali...i posted this same comment on another thread but since you're in the business maybe you can clarify for me...the economy is heading to a deep recession or depression here and around the world yet people are willing to pay almost $800k for a one bedroom..wouldn't it make sense that real estate in manhattan is going to tank deep...

julia - Don't believe everything you read on Streeteasy.

Personally, I love living in NYC.

"685 West End Avenue is an elegant pre-war full service building in the heart of the Upper West Side."

It says full-service so it is a doorman building. The place doesn't look so bad, actually.

Ali - are you looking for UWS 2-bedrooms prewar? I wrote about 255 West End the other day, low floor on West End but a real 2-bedroom in PS199 (all important backup if you are a parent). It went into contract (ask 599k) but it strikes me that you could do better than a large 1-bedroom for that price range these days.

Well, julia, everyone's forecast depends on their own personal experience. I don't think that the economy is headed for a depression, so I have to hearken back to my experience of New York recessions. In 2001, the tech bubble burst, and our city was attacked, and 3,000 people got killed, and prices came down (anecdotally) about 10%.

In the late 80s-early 90s (when I first got to NYC; hubby is a native) prices came down much harder, again anecdotally about 50% peak-to-trough in many buildings and maybe 40% peak-to-trough in the "good" buildings.

So I look at a market that's already come down 20% (again, anecdotally; people please don't spit data corrections at me) and I think maybe at worst it has 20% to go, and that could take 4-5 years (based on watching it happen in the 80s-early 90s recession).

Do I want to buy an asset that WILL decline 20% in value in 5 years? Not really. But am I willing to buy an asset that COULD decline 20% in value in 5 years? Sure, especially if my alternatives are living in our current studio (which is too small for us) or renting and paying heinous taxes (I'm a freelancer, so my tax burden is higher than that of someone who gets their salary -- and half their Social Security taxes -- paid by their employer.)

Plus, I'm watching the stock market, and that's not fun -- the retirement funds I put in, what, a month ago? They've already dropped nearly 10%.

At least if a real asset I'm living in is going to drop in value, I can put a sofa in it.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

685 WE has a doorman from what I remember. Classic 6es here sell for a very high price compared to other West End co-ops, can't think why except that the layouts lend themselves to 3-bed conversion very easily while getting large EIK (small windowed DR) and the LR in the 6 is larger than average.

nyc10023 --

Yes, I believe we are -- we had made a bid in Gramercy and that bid wasn't accepted; I think we've now thrown in the towel on that whole neighborhood.

The problem for hubby and I is that we have to pass a board. $599K for 255 WEA sounds great -- but there's a $1600 maintenance on that apartment, which is somewhat softened by a seller rebate for year one -- but a board is going to look at us and wonder about year two.

As it is, I'm running the numbers projecting that my income is sliced roughly in half from last year -- I think that's quite conservative, even with the downturn in my two industries (real estate and publishing) but I think that's the kind of forecast a board will want to see, especially since we'll keep a condo that's an investment property, and they're going to worry about what the real estate market does to THAT.

So that puts us at looking for maintenances around $1,000 -- $1,100. I have watched some of your posts on other threads, so I think I know your faves, but feel free to repost anything that you think is a true gem. :>

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Ali - you don't need me, you have access to the whole database. I know I keep harping on this, but as a parent-to-be, it's nice to have a good PS zone as backup. From a personal perspective, it seemed crazy to think about it way back when, but I'm so glad now that we were always looking with the school district in the back of our mind.

There are quite a few prewar co-ops with the same 2-bedroom layout around me. The nice thing about this kind of 2-bedroom is that the 2nd bedroom is very large (compared to postwar/new builds), so 2 kids can easily fit in if you aren't a real packrat. LR is larger than most postwar builds too, which means you can fit a dining table and then open up the kitchen if that's your thin. At peak, selling at close to 1m - it looks like 599k is the bottom for now.

I know we have discussed this before but I still think these maintenance rebates are a scam. As a buyer, I only want to fight about one number, the price. It strikes me as wrong to artificially inflate prices based on maintenance reductions. The comps get all messed up because of these kind of shenanigans.