Ta-da! We hit the magic number! 11,000+ Listings in Manhattan!

Great news for new buyers with good jobs and good credit. Lots of inventory,low interest rates and tax credits for new buyers. A friend of mine is finding some great deals in the West Village as prices have come down. Now he can quit renting in Brooklyn live in Manhattan and be much closer to work. He is planning on living there for 7 to 10 years. So, when he sells he should make enough to have lived for free and make a small profit. This is very good news. Plus cars are a bargin now as well.

Still too early to buy. It's just beginning.

I'll break out the champaign once the Larry post breaks 600.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/9261-open-house-today-130-400pm-high-floor-corner-1-bedroom-407-park-avenue-south-18b

I am new to SE but I've learned that one question often asked in response to a lovey-dubby, its-a-great-time-to-buy post (which is happily untethered to market reality) is: Are you a broker?...so, new2ny....are you?

Yes I am I broker. I moved to New York from Aspen,CO where I was a broker for 10 years. But my post is not is it a good time to buy for everyone in New York but it could be for some people. My friends decision is based on a quality of life reason. He may pay a little more but he wants to enjoy not having to commute to Manhattan for work,or to see friends or go the all the things he enjoys about living in NYC. He doesn't want to wait another year or two. Plus he wants to catch the low interest rates.Plus he can afford to buy. Sure people who bought in the last 2 years and have a crisis and have to sell will lose money. It's a very sad thing. I don't understand why people have such a low opition of brokers. Not all brokers are the same. The worst thing that can happen is you get some bad advice. It's not like you can lose your life savings or anything (Madoff). I could give you a list of clients you could call and would tell you how happy they were with the service I provided. Is now the time to buy for everyone? Of course not. But it might be for some people.

I'm not categorically against brokers, but for the life of me, if I was selling in a large,generic building I can't see much value in a broker, but that's another topic.

This market is moving fast,and toward the downside, so buying now is nutty,in my view, for anyone but the ultra wealthy who really don't care if they lose money.

"I don't understand why people have such a low opition of brokers. Not all brokers are the same. The worst thing that can happen is you get some bad advice. It's not like you can lose your life savings or anything (Madoff)."

The new broker marketing campaign: "We're Not Madoff!"

This site is to provide people with information about the NYC real estate market. One of the best bloggers is West81St. I've learned more about the upper westside from his blogs that would take hours to do on my own. If you wanted to buy or rent an apartment on the upper westside and West81ST was a broker would you use him? I would! He provides so much good information. And it takes a lot of time to do what he does.

Long term (say 5 to 10 years) this is great for NYC. The economic base and the types of people living here and moving here will diversify. The domination of the economy by a single industry (I-banking) lead to this short-term unraveling. Prices will continued to decline fairly sharply, finally stabilize, and then move upward at a slow and steady rate (less than 5% per annum). $1,000/sq.ft. for a mediocre 1-bedroom could not be sustained.

Stevejhx -- i posted this on one of your earlier inventory threads, wanted to get your thoughts:

Is it fair to count units in new construction that is less than 70% sold in calculating inventory? I'm thinking that new construction that is less than 70% sold is similar to coop conversions in the 80s/90s. Here's my thought about new construction under the 70% threshold, either:

a) it gets converted to rental (which would have an indirect effect on pricing as it would eventually depress rental prices more)
b) it gets zombied between the lawyers/lenders/developers and becomes available at auction in the future at which point it becomes actual inventory.

To include in today's inventory units that will not or cannot be sold doesn't seem to be fair. I would love to be refuted in my logic on this ... also, does anybody have an idea of how much of the inventory is comprised of units in buildings that are under the 70% threshold.

new2ny... Since you are new to NYC and SE here's a head's up: West81st, who is no doubt one of the most valuable people on Streeteasy is not a broker. But she is not a "he" either.

Lizank, I am not sure west81st (MVP in SE) is a ¨she¨ What makes you think this?

I believe she has identifed herself as such numerous times. If I am wrong, I stand corrected.

I am offended that you compared West81st to a broker. What an insult!

It's 12-18 months till we hit the bottom of the well. (Doc Doom's estimated time table)
Forcast is for another 20% decrease from where we are today.

"I don't understand why people have such a low opition of brokers"

Farquhar, I think it's because of two factors. 1)The huge uptick in real estate drew a large number of incompetent boobs to the RE broker profession. This obscures a good nimber of excellent qualified professionals. Good luck seperating the wheat from the chaff. 2)SE and sites like them provide a wealth of information and instant selection that was unimaginable 10 years ago. The role of the broker has changed and the industry is trying to redefine itself(even if they don't believe this, it's true).

the word is number...got to start reading what I write!

buy the way,
I agree about West81st. I have learned a tremendous amount from reading the open house reports and comps. Their are others but, the obsevational abilities of this particular contributer are extrodinary. I would rather have West81st with me when I'm evaluating my dream purchase than anyone I've herd from so far.
I have also formed a image around a women...I have no idea way!

Sorry to West81st if I made a mistake on your gender. I'm probabaly older than most people on this site( I was in college when interest rates were 17%). I've owned 3 homes in my life and the least amount of time I've lived in one was 8 years. I never bought with the thought it was an investment. It was where I wanted to live. So like many of you I have some knowledge of the ways of real estate. But, not the NYC real estate market. Which is a whole other animal unlike anything else in the country. When I rented my apartment I was required to have my CPA send a letter stating my tax returns were correct since I had worked for myself and was not working at the time.Plus I had to prove 45% my annual rent in income. Just to rent! So the information the people who share their experiences with buying,renting and living in NYC is really, to a large degree, for people like myself and others who need to be educated on the market. I've seen many ups & downs in the market,real estate markets,etc. in 40 years and it will come back. So my advice to new buyers who want to own their own home (and I know that feeling) if you are going to make NYC your home for the next 7 to 10 years and can afford it, the next couple years or so will be a great time to get into the market.

"It's not like you can lose your life savings or anything" actually, you pretty much can, if you use most of your savings on your 20%+ down payment, and the property declines in value by 20%+ by the time you need / have to sell. Then you pretty much lost your life savings.

That's why it seems insane for regular folks to buy NYC real estate now. This might be an OK time to buy if you have tons of wealth, and could survive some losses and/or don't care if you lose money. Otherwise, it makes no sense. new2ny - I understand your friend wants to move to Manhattan to be closer to his friends, but why not rent? Why does he feel an urgency to buy?

this is very true.
Renters rule the day.
Landlords are slow to realize but, little by little...
Want to buy? Start shopping, keep your powder dry and prepare yourself by becoming market savy. Know your choices, know your comps, learn how to evaluate, polish your hondeling ability and, search for an RE agent who is on the ball.
TIP* visit open house and evaluate the the agent showing the apartment. It's a good time to see what kind of workers they are. If there up, informed and, on the ball make a note...that could be your agent, the slacker, texter, cell-phone ignorer with little insite and info about the RE their showing is a waste of your time and should be disguarded as worthless.

one more thing
Timing is critical to all purchases. People who tell you timing is not an RE issue are not operating with your best interests. To buy and watch you investment decline even on paper is sooooooooo painfull. This I can tell you first hand. Patients is the key to this market. I think I hear capitulation off in the distance.

pjc His desire to own is just something he's always wanted since he moved to NYC 18 years ago. He's seen the ups & downs. And it's all realative. When you could buy a one bedroom apartment for $90,000.00 in the village it was still too high! Now things are different. He won't just rush into anything. But he's been in NYC long enough to know what he want's and has seen the prices go up and down. Even though there are a lot of properties on the market there are only 36 in the West Village in his price range. So it's more about just being ready to pull the trigger when the right place can be had for the right price. But, your points are well taken.

Many savy buyers are better off going without an agent. Avoid the conflict of interest, get more direct information in negotiations, and have your offer get double the attention from the seller's agent... as they contemplate twice the commission. It is amazing how quickly the seller's agent will start working in the buyer's interest in this case. Sad but true.

New2ny, I appreciate your optimism.

The same that has ruined many people prodded on by sellers over the last few years
You have to wake up. You may believe it yourself.
If your friend buys in the west village, he has a 90% chance of taking a loss when he sells in 5-7 years.
Do you have any knowledge of long waves in the RE values?
Have you ever seen a graph of RE purchase/carrying costs compared to GDP after WWII?

Moreover your friend does not exist

Your babble about the right price is demented or demonic

The mother of all bubbles exploded and you want to take a skiing expedition down its crumbling slopes.

Oh sorry I forgot, your job is just to sell sell sell

> Not all brokers are the same. The worst thing that can happen is you get some bad advice. It's not like you can lose your life savings or anything (Madoff).

Are you kidding? Have you read the stories on nytimes.com of people who put their entire life savings into a new development condo and now can't get the mortgage for the rest?

new2ny is another standard broker with a standard argument - push the argument away from the financial numbers and toward an emotional "own-your-own-place" "you'll have great memories" one. No one on this board denies that is a consideration, but plenty plenty of people do not want to lose money short or intermediate-term while they 'enjoy' their new asset.

asked West81st if she was an appraiser once ... this is what she had to say

admin - Who are you?
W81 - No one of consequence.
admin - I must know.
W81 - Get used to disappointment.

it's been true love since then

"The domination of the economy by a single industry (I-banking) lead to this short-term unraveling. "

You are a big fat LIAR. NYC is in fact FAR LESS dependent on Wall Street then it was in the 80's and 90s - Mayor Bloomberg points out these state on a REGULAR basis. The problems go beyond wall street - pharma companies have been laying off for a while, publishing is in shammbles, asare other media companies, as are fashion...now a lot of that if not most is because of the credit crises in GENERAL, but California having 11% unemployment is NOT because THEY were too dependent on Wall Street - and NYC and NYS have much lower unemployment than there...

Where is the most accurate site re inventory status, new apt on market, apt going into contract?

Most of these comments here at SE (incl my own) treat the purchase of Manhattan RE as an act of investment. Unfortunatly, the 'asset class Manhattan RE' has lost it's glitter.
IMHO I believe that this 'asset class' will be dead for a long time. I expect something between 5-10 years. Just look at the last 30 years. The real run came in the last couple of years after a lackluster performance for years.

Admin, true love is the greatest thing in the world. Except for a nice MLT... :o)

Thanks all for your kindness.

to blave - which we all know means, to bluff

Eurocash, check out the widget on urbandigs.com (see upper right of home page). He draws from this site. Also, see the quarterly reports from miller samuel.

Well all I know is I've always made money on my real estate purchases. Which has allowed me to live in places like Aspen, CO and Tribeca. Like a friend once told me"If you can't afford to lose it, don't do it". I know one thing for sure if your are renting and decide to move you leave with nothing but your deposit. When I sold my home in Colorado I lived for free for 8 years and made money.If one bedroom apartments in the West Village were $200,000.00 there would be 18 million people living in NYC. The truth is most people will never be able to afford Manhattan. My advice to young people who have the means and plan on staying around for a few years it's going to be a great time to buy. Will the market go up or down? Who knows. But it's not just about the money I just like owning my own home. Parr of the reason I got into real estate was so I would have all the information available when I was ready to buy. If I stay in NYC I will buy. I'm just sharing my experience. That's all.

Hi West81st. Did you check out any open houses? I'm considering the Upper Westside so thanks for all your information. To young buyers pay attention to people like West81st's post. Another great day in NYC.

Adding: waiting with bated breath, simply waiting for revelation.

There should be a song or something.

" I know one thing for sure if your are renting and decide to move you leave with nothing but your deposit. "

Better than what you leave a house with these days... debt/foreclosure/loss of equity.

And renters also leave with whatever they didn't put into the house (down payment), etc.

So new2ny you buying now? I mean f you can afford it, you've been flipping your entire... grt on your deathbed as Peter asks you what you've contributed, you can say "I took a bit from here and a bit from there, but did absolutely nothing to better mankind but sat on a new couch every 5 years!"

Go you... and if you are so up on NYC RE, go buy a half dozen and tell me how the cat food tastes like in 5 yrs.... cause if I was your client that's what i'd be eating in 5 yrs listening to your advice....

BTW, nice to meet you and welcome to NYC.... dumbass

"BTW, nice to meet you and welcome to NYC.... dumbass"

welcome backw67!!

" I know one thing for sure if your are renting and decide to move you leave with nothing but your deposit."

Maybe that's a good thing. If an owner leaves, its not like there's much equity hanging around these days. And renters didn't have to cough up maint + taxes in addition. You dont get that back.

Much better to have paid less each month AND not put $100k or $200k down and walk away with nothing...

Then to do all those things, still walk away with nothing, except for a lousy credit report...

This listing is a dog!
http://curbed.com/archives/2009/03/30/park_slope_coop_sales_go_to_the_dogs.php#reader_comments

...and a deficiency judgment, if you really want to pile on the worst-case scenarios.

new2ny: I appreciate your generous praise, and yes, I will post a few brief OH reports tonight. If you'd like to chat off-line, my e-mail address is my SE screen name at gmail.com. No worries about the gender confusion; it's one of the hazards of anonymity.

West81st you do have good OH reports - any chance of doing some outside the multi-million $$ range. it would be nice to see some commentary on the lower end of the market and OHs.

Yo! Dwell!.... this board is getting too nice... let's take it up a notch!

Just read that post... once and for all let's keep our on-line genders straight...admin wears skirts, waverly does not... West81.... r u a lady? (not that it matters at all... but I need to keep mental images straight....I'm all confused with agentrachel... cause I actually have a face... so now I can't be so "nasty" anymore... let me correct that ..... "too nasty" ) :)

dwell... maybe I the ex-re broker strippers should use little post its with units for sale on their.... mmmm... lady parts... just to be PC, guys could use a message written on a thong.... :)

I'M BACK BABY!

ncy10025: I've been visiting more properties in the $800K-$1MM range lately, trying to get a fuller picture of the UWS market. My focus in the OH reports is still on apartments with 5-8 rooms, just because I feel more comfortable inhabiting them mentally and evaluating them as living spaces. It's been a while since my family could fit in anything smaller, so I'm not sure my perspective on a typical junior 2BR would have much value.

sticky - did you break out the "champaign?" (champagne)

w67, yoos nasty. W81 is a lady, so treat her like a lady.

c'mon, no one got a giggle about the 'for sale' flyer taped to the dog??

dwell chk my prior post about post its... that picture of the dog speaks volumes about the current state of NYC RE :) That gave me a double giggler.....

Hey any update on Julia?

Hi west67, welcome back. Julia read the thread and seemed quite moved by it, I think she is waiting for some testing. It's melanoma, so the cure rate is very high. She got tons of good wishes.

Hey mimi.... next time we all go to Maui together... we'll get a group discount for SE posters !

W81st I keep that in mind thanks. I didnt mean to single you out but I think you provide great information and insight on what's happening on the Upper Westside. I feel there are a lot of first time buyers on this sight looking for direction. Maybe it's their first purchase or their recession! My advice you have to do your homework but posters like W81st are doing a lot of it for you.There is another very good post by RE_Economist for first time buyers or new buyer to NYC. For the vast majority of people who purchased homes in the last year or two they are still making their house payments loving their homes and haven't lost a dime. Nothing has changed. You won't know if you will lose money or make money until you sell it. Many people think it's too soon to jump into the market. I differ in I think it depends on your own situation. Now that prices are down 25%,interst rates really low and a tax credit maybe it is time for some people to buy.Neighborhoods are different. Some hold their value more,some have less inventory, the prices will not fall as low in some places and will increase faster.If your a first time buyer pay attention to the post you get the most info. Most people believe if you plan on holding on to your place for several year you'll be just fine.

new2ny... in a word NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

for the next 4 years rent a comp, put deposit into a gov't bond.... let's see who wins "I GOT MORE MONEY BF I DIE" race... versus your BUY NOW! cause 1) Interest Rate can only go up from 0%, 2) people will get more jobs that are better paying in the next 4 years and therefore will bid more and finally 3) lending restrictions will disappear completely in the next 4 years so the pool of buyers WILL BE HUGE.

GO away you self serving leeech... oh WELCOME TO NYC... DUMBASS!

Also first time buyers and new buyers to NYC.Get yourself a good broker. Don't try this on your own. I'm sure you could get a list of good brokers from people on this site. It seem Ali is a good one who posts on this site. Good luck.

The broker I used to sell my apartment was wonderful...yup, I (with her huge help)sold! She even understands why I am renting now and will be my broker when I feel the time is right to get back in. Now isn't that time...

I get they aren't all created equally...ask for recommendations, ask for referrals, and meet more than one. That goes for buying or selling.

Good luck...

> For the vast majority of people who purchased homes in the last year or two they are still making their house payments loving their homes and haven't lost a dime. Nothing has changed. You won't know if you will lose money or make money until you sell it.

I doubt you are saying this to owners when the market is rising.

and will you quit talking about the tax credit? How many New York buyers in this credit-constrained environment are both qualifying for mortgages AND making less than $75,000 a year?

"For the vast majority of people who purchased homes in the last year or two they are still making their house payments loving their homes and haven't lost a dime."

uh, suuuuuuuuure.

and if I never sell that pets.com stock, I didn't lose money.

Sorry, its a loss. Paint it any way you like, money was lost. SIGNIFICANT money was lost.

new2ny... my bad... you aren't welcome here anymore.... pls get you fat arse back to LA LA land....

If your stocks are down and you have to sell you lose money. If your house is worth 25% less than you paid and you have to sell you lose money. But if you don't have to sell and you stay in your home for the next 10 years I think the chances of you losing money is low. Yes I could wrong but who knows. For people looking to buy it seems much of the depreciation of the bubble market has taken place with properties selling for 25% less than a year ago. They could go down more. I think it depends on the location the building and even the unit in that building. I don't think it's across the board with every property being the same.If people have seen an apartment they wanted to buy 2 years ago fall by 25% and interest rates drop by close to 2% points and they have their down payment and their looking at the monthly note is 30% lower than they would have paid two years ago why not buy if you can afford it?

"If your stocks are down and you have to sell you lose money. If your house is worth 25% less than you paid and you have to sell you lose money. But if you don't have to sell and you stay in your home for the next 10 years I think the chances of you losing money is low. Yes I could wrong but who knows."

No, you are wrong and we know.

Unrealized losses are still losses. That you don't care to look at the numbers doesn't mean it didn't happen...

"I don't think it's across the board with every property being the same.If people have seen an apartment they wanted to buy 2 years ago fall by 25% and interest rates drop by close to 2% points and they have their down payment and their looking at the monthly note is 30% lower than they would have paid two years ago why not buy if you can afford it?"

Simple... a bargain about to become a bigger bargain is no bargain at all. If it was 200% overprices, a 25% decline doesn't mean much.

Monthly note 30% lower meants diddly when rents were already substantially cheaper and have already fallen that much.

You're like the guy who told folks to buy dot com stocks because they were 20% discount off bubble peak.

Sorry, but the logic is just bad.

nyc10022... ditto...

Okay new2ny = 0, everyone else 99 points.... 10 seconds to go, new2ny throws a hail mary 3 pointer... yes! But alas, it went into his own basket.... everyone else Wins 102 to 0... great game new2ny... same time next Monday?

This guy is pathetic. There are simpletons who will buy inane sunny disposition arguments but not on this board.

People on this board aren't going to listen to "Buy, it's down 25%!" and overlook the reality that
* employment is falling,
* longer-term income generation ability in the city is falling,
* real interest rates have actually risen in the last 6-9 months,
* rents have plunged the last 3 months, making math impossible, especially on high maintenance places,
* the fact that after about 10 "ifs" (if you have your down payment, if you found your dream place, if you can afford to be locked into this asset, if you don't depend on banks who are disincented to loan with deflation and falling asset prices),

that the demand market is down a heck of a lot.

today 3/30 was a good day for Manhattan RE

only ONE new listing
but although ONE closing

that's the best ratio I have seen for months.

The market is turning L O L