Buy now or miss the recovery!

The Recovery -- I miss it already.

l o l

Recovery - from debt addiction? Do you get the debtors equivalent of the heroin/methadone swap, turn in six credit cards/get one debit? Maybe they can start a clinic in Kips Bay, further depressing the values.

Actually it is a great time to buy if Manhattan is down 30%. nyc10022, what are you waiting for, at 30% off and these rates, you are well below the rent vs. buy equilibrium that you have been waiting for right?

Hell's bells, JM. I've waited this long, i can wait a bit longer to see if it overshoots. Where's the fire?

"Actually it is a great time to buy if Manhattan is down 30%. nyc10022, what are you waiting for, at 30% off and these rates, you are well below the rent vs. buy equilibrium that you have been waiting for right?"

Uh, not when rents are down 30%, too. And prices are headed to 40% down at least.

Didn't you say to buy last year, too? And who said buy at equlibrium... you buy when BELOW equilibrium.

And a bargain about to become a bigger bargain is no bargain at all.

Sorry.

Carpetbagging time in Detroit residential real estate! You can get more bang for your buck there now.

alanhart, You admitted that as late as Spring 08 you still advised clients to buy. Now you turn around and toot Steve et al's horn. How do you feel about your clients you sold apts to last year? Do you also share these opinions with them? UD was right on months before you so I think you should be a little bit more quiet on this board!

I don't know nyc10022, you should redo your equilibrium math. 30% off compared to current rents and these rates......now that's assumming that things are really 30% off of course but that's not an assumption you seem to mind taking.

JM - are you here just to bash people like Steve or do you HONESTLY believe that there's any realistic chance that prices don't continue to plunge throughout 2009? Seriously, what could possibly keep them from falling further? I mean, inventory will keep climbing and there's virtually no buying interest out there right now. I don't have an axe to grind and I'm looking to buy (assuming I can get a good deal), but I simply don't see prices magically levelling off at today's prices or heading back higher. Do you?

No, not really BSexposer. Things are not good and don't seem to be getting better.

That said, I'm not bashing steve, we have been debating back and forth for a long time. There are two sides to every number BSexposer, it would be foolish to take what people say on this site at face value. Would you rather just read a bunch of posts that say the same thing from the same angle? If so, there is always CNN.

"Things are not good and don't seem to be getting better"

Right - I think that is all most people here are saying. Things look VERY BLEAK for NYC RE. Could a miracle occur and suddenly thousands of buyers are rushing in to push prices back up? Theoretically it's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

"There are two sides to every number BSexposer, it would be foolish to take what people say on this site at face value"

Fine, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, as the saying goes. That doesn't change the fact that (A) NYC RE prices were a bubble, (B) all bubbles inevitably pop, and (C) we are currently witnessing the bubble popping. It's not just people on this site saying it - the media is pretty unanimous and, most importantly of all, buyers and sellers in the market are acting in accordance with this reality (inventory rising, sales plummeting). So, feel free to make whatever arguments you wish, I just don't understand why you would try to attack the "bear" arguments as insistently as you do - like, what's in it for you? It appears that, unlike some of the other people I've seen who are claiming there's no downturn in prices, you have a decent level of intelligence, so I'm just asking...why not accept the obvious? Unless you are just doing it out of spite for the "bears".

because its not kool to be a bear

Sounds mighty similar to those who kept egging people to buy Tech stock because they were soooooo cheap during Dot Bust.

Except.... it got even cheaper... all the way down the drain leaving many people either bagholders or broke.

Pass the popcorn while we watch these lemmings get all excited over themselves as they continue walking down the plank to the cauldron of fire.

I guess ignorance truly is bliss until you suddenly get your arze handed to you.

"why you would try to attack the "bear" arguments as insistently as you do - like, what's in it for you?"

Well the main reason is because the site would be a dreadful bore if everyone just posted "the sky is falling" 24/7 and the other is that I don't believe the correction will be as harsh as some think. The main reason is I think it is fun to talk about real estate and I learn a lot from intelligent debate. Throw a few laughs in there and we got some really good entertainment between meetings.

"It appears that, unlike some of the other people I've seen who are claiming there's no downturn in prices, you have a decent level of intelligence, so I'm just asking"

Who has said there isn't a downturn in prices? That's one of the funny things about bears. Anyone that says something positive or doesn't agree with egregious numbers is labeled as "prices always go up!" Why is that do you think?

"because its not kool to be a bear"

I disagree Digs, being a bear is very much in fashion. Just think of all the Roubini lectures you get invited to

i dont get invited anymore! It aint kool anymore

UD, give it a couple of weeks. a few nasty earnings reports might make it cool again. i noticed a remarkable shift in sentiment back down today.

tribeca,
I have no clients, and never did.
Who's tooting Steve's horn is very much his business, or pleasure, or whatevs.
I sold my condo in August 2007 and am not currently looking to buy, which pretty much sums up my view of the NY RE market for the last couple of years, and the next couple of years (at least) as well.
Find that "admission" post you're referring to.

"I don't believe the correction will be as harsh as some think"

OK, you are entitled to your view - maybe it's just me, but it seems like you've been in the "bull" camp for many months (at least since mid-2008) and, now that things are turning out differently than you previously thought, you are sticking to your guns - to the extent it doesn't appear completely ridiculous - rather than admitting that you were wrong. I believe the correction will actually be a tsunami on the downside. It appears to be a perfect storm to bring prices down to rock bottom levels. Look at the early 90s and what happened to prices then - do you really believe things will turn out better than then? I can't see it - maybe you can present some argument for the contrary view?

L O L @ buy now or miss the recovery.

1st it was buy now or be priced in forever

2nd it was buy nor or be priced in forever

"I don't know nyc10022, you should redo your equilibrium math. 30% off compared to current rents and these rates......now that's assumming that things are really 30% off of course but that's not an assumption you seem to mind taking."

Juiceman, are you kidding with this?

Prices are *still* declining.
Carrying costs are also increasing (remember that assessments take FIVE YEARS to fully phase in).
And rents are *still* declining.

Are you honestly suggesting that its time to buy?
Well, I guess you said that a year ago as well, so we know the answer on that one.

So, do you actually think the rent/buy equilibrium has shifted to buy, or are you just being difficult so noone notices that the market has decline 20-30%

"Well the main reason is because the site would be a dreadful bore if everyone just posted "the sky is falling" 24/7 and the other is that I don't believe the correction will be as harsh as some think. The main reason is I think it is fun to talk about real estate and I learn a lot from intelligent debate. Throw a few laughs in there and we got some really good entertainment between meetings."

So, you know you've been consistently wrong for at least a year, and its funny?

Weren't you the guys who said you spent time on this board to "teach" people.

That didn't go so well, did it...

Wait, is it me, or is every bear who swore there would be no bubble pop going to now say "APRIL FOOLS, I KNEW IT WAS A BUBBLE ALL ALONG?!?!"

Is perfitz next?