I feel a price hop coming... I'm getting a tingling feeling down there....

DAMN.. I can't spell for crap tonite... CHOP, CHOP.

But the baths are exquisitely marbled.

Ilan doesn't listen so good. I like your idea though. We're always hatin' on the brokers. Maybe we should be more helpful.

I've met Ilan... he needs a wake up call on this one... maybe he's using it as a stalking horse to get the $1200psf one done DOH!

For $1,500psf... the baths better be made of gold that I can shave off and sell to UD.

his blog is so bad. and why does he not put a little compass on his maps?

At the other end of the spectrum from the ever-sunny Mr. Bracha, we have Lisa Lippman, who appears to have adopted the Sy Simms automatic-markdown plan. We uptowners have watched with admiration and gratitude as LL has mercilously chopped the price of a prime Carnegie Hill maisonette in half, and sliced a variety of UWS listings to below the owners' cost.

Her latest project: this handsome CPW condo dropped $250K today, exactly one month after hitting the market. Opened at $2.85MM (http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/389925-condo-327-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york), now $2.6MM (http://www.bhsusa.com/detail.aspx?id=990476).

The risk, I guess, is that the price-chops become so predictable that there ceases to be much motivation to bid.

Hello West81.. .just missed you on the other thread.

IMHO, the risk is minimal in this market.... there are plenty of sideliners out there (myself included). If the chops keep happening then I am led to believe 1) the seller is serious 2) Chops cannot get to zero (?) 3) competitive juices get flowing and 4) prints happen (does p09 use that term?) on the way up and down. So if the seller is "desperate" and shows it by lowering the price.... someone will risk catching that falling knife... .just look at DJIA the last 2 months... :)

There lies the key... for some a $200K discount chop may just fit their risk/return criteria for the $2.6MM above and only you and your accountant know that answer.... :)

Do people still expect to make money on the purchases they made in 2005? I'm confused.

Rhino86.. the confusion comes from RE brokers walking that fine line between trying to get a listing (it'll sell at 2006/7 pricing) and facing the market (2003 soon to be 2001)...

Just a note to anyone that bought on RSD (that trump and below)....that cold feeling you get walking out... it's not the wind.. .that's how it feels to be underwater....

I dunno if its 2003 yet is it? I even see listings bought in 2007 being offered at the same price. I think people think they can maximize by asking too much and negotiating down to above-fair. I actually found a thread I started six months ago around a listing at 50 W 96th.... People were going wild about if prices fell 30% it would mean the city had been through Armegeddon. Pretty funny.

w67, you are such an unpleasant person. Is it necessary to insult all people living on RSD? Why do you get such a joy out of someone else's (perceived) misfortune???

rhino, not asking prices. prices going into contract.

Do you think prices going to contract are really 2003 levels? Not sure I see that yet, but I don't doubt it will get there.

Don't agree. Apt in our building just sold and it was well above 03 leves, more 05 levels. Stop creating panic. This is just wishful thinking of renters.

w67, if you haven't noticed (and I think you have) most of NYC is underwater. It's not just a RSD thing.

Rhino86, if most people sold at a 30% discount to '07 prices they would need to pay the bank at closing. Maybe the 50% down coop buyers would be spared the agony of having to pay a bank to be released from their mortgage bond upon sale but for the majority of the remainder, bring your checkbook.

Oh.... tribeca... are you gonna take my trade?

The kid dying in Africa bc he has no access to clean water (I've seen it first hand), now I FEEL for that kid.... the douches that "priced" my doctor wife and successful self in 2003-2007 b/c I refused to do a no doc, negative amortizing loan, with 1% down and can't seem to make the $10K/month mortgage.... I shed no tears.

Seriously, when I got my first job... I made $34K/yr.... I worked like a dog and saved $3K that first year... my wife after 15 yrs of med school made $150K/yr in academia.... until she went private.... so let me ask you, who is more deserving of a CPW 7.... a RE broker/i-banker/home flipper or yours truly?

Do you want to take the trade? Seriously? if you are not willing to sit on your phat 3000 sf tribeca loft or if it's more than 50% of your net asset.... take my advice or take my trade...

Really on a personal level... I am like totally fun to hang out with and my kids adore me...

Tribeca/80sMan: W67 obviously meant Riverside Boulevard, where a large percentage of owners ARE underwater. Not saying it's cool to rub their noses in it, but Trumpville is in a deep collective hole.

There aren't many underwater owners on Riverside Drive, for a variety of reasons. And besides, no self-respecting UWSer would ever insult dear old RSD, aside from the occasional joke about the wind.

67: I will hang wich u, when I get my 8 on CPW, see u at the gym.

westie... yes I stand corrected :)

What trade are you talking about? So you make it a class war now? Who is more deserving? I am not saying that a banker is more worthy of an apt. than a dr. All I am saying is that your comments are mean spirited. Not everyone on RSD is an i banker or home flipper. It's not necessary to make remarks such as "Just a note to anyone that bought on RSD (that trump and below)....that cold feeling you get walking out... it's not the wind.. .that's how it feels to be underwater...."

tribeca... I thought there were maybe 10 people on SE... how can a small minority affect the ENTIRE NYC RE market? Just relax... don't worry about all the open houses in your building... some people like having open houses even when they don't plan to sell...

I didn't say anything about you talking the market down. Do you have any reading comprehension. I said your comment is mean spirited.

tribeca... there was another thread....We take 10 comp listing today (offered price psf). I offered $5K month to you for 18 months... at the 18th month, if market flat/up then you keep my money. If market is down we take 10 comp (closed prices) times 3000 (your sf), and you pay me. That's the trade.

p09, how many kids do you have? CPW8... a bdrm too many for me.. :) cant' handle the monthlies....

tribeca... I apologize... but please trust me when I say, on w67th's level of mean spiritedness... that comment was like a soft whisper into a puppy's ear.

You are right... english is like my third language :) My english/math SAT split was 640/670.. that's when 1300 meant something :)

w67, why would I take the trade? I haven't made any statement where the market is heading nor do I know. My family is comfortable in the apt. and we plan on staying for a long time. I have enough cash to pay down the mortgage if I want to, so no concern for a fire sale. Meanwhile, I enjoy my apartment, just did an extensive renovation. My building has nice families, my kids hang out with them. So why do you try to tell me I should feel bad about my home? What kick do you get out of it? Let people live!

80sMan... yes I agree that most of manhattan is underwater... but the hood was particularly taken by investor/foreigners/nyc newbies that took pride in getting a $1MM + mortgage.... i don't recall anything under $1MM in that hood...so as an absolute depth of underwaterness... that takes the ricotta cheesecake...

tribeca..... I am laughing so hard at your "let people live" comment...... I almost spit out my protein shake....

I come to SE to vent. I come from an old school banking back-ground which meant people looked to see if you could pay off your mortgage... and tribeca, if you can and your income is not in danger of being slashed.. good for you, I guess I'll let you live :)

But you do know, some people took out NINJA loans to buy homes in (aghast!) NYC RE... like my landlord who works for the city and can in no way pay off his mortgage, but is biding his time bc he thought in 2 yrs everything will come up roses... my wife prefers tulips. So no matter how you slice it, you "over-paid" for your home as evidenced by you being on SE and having this back and forth e/ me. Push away from your laptop and "GO live" in peace and harmony.. .I wish you the best.

tribeca, none of us have yet made a mistake that wasn't followed by a "told you so" from somebody or other, so I'd guess any RSB folks on here can bear it. w67thstreet is actually a lot more compassionate than I -- for one -- am, and is funny to boot.

Yes, most likely I overpaid. Does this mean only you have a right to be on SE? I am not sure why you try to make every owner feel bad about his/her purchase. As long I can hold it for the long term, I won't lose money. And in my income bracket, an apartment such as I have is paid off in a couple of years.

nwt :)

Ohhhhhh.... now you've piqued my interest? What kind of a gig can payoff a 3000sq ft tribeca loft in a couple of yrs.... what movies have I seen you in... Gwenyth? is that you?

Tribeca 40 minutes ago: "Stop creating panic. This is just wishful thinking of renters."

Tribeca 25 minutes ago: "I didn't say anything about you talking the market down."

The first quote looks to me like an accusation of talking the market down.

Ahley? or Kate Olsen? is that you.... can I have an autograph?

w67, two bankers (at non-US banks), one of us with a 3yr guarantee. Not all bankers are poor.

It was pure luck that one of us signed guarantee. We were debating for the longest time whether it's a good deal. And now it covered the last two years and the 2010 bonus. Hopefully, that tied us over the worst years. So yes, probably bad timing for real estate but great timing for a guarantee!

Let me check.... mortgage is 30 yrs.... vs. 3 yr guarantee.... I used to work in the work-out dept.... you do know in case of a bankruptcy you become just another unsecured creditor in line with the catering cos., janitors and office max?

The older generation of bankers that I know think they are poor no matter how "guaranteed" their income or what their asset level cause they know the party is over. Enjoy your 3 years... then what?

Like I said, I already have enough cash to pay down the mortgage

tribeca. Congrats on the guarantee. Enjoy your 3000 sf home. Raise your child with the awareness of their "luck" in having parents, a home, water, food and place in the eons of humanity before us and the suffering of others as they play with their nannies and friends.

Know too that i would not want to be in a world where no one would want to argue with me, it would be a boring place and the reason I love NYC.

I'm getting another tingling feeling.... no it's not another price chop... I'm just hungry...

or the squirts. (Set yourself up for that one.)

Westie :)

NWT :).... if I was a lady... UTI :)

As a finance person (tho clearly not as successful as Tribeca), I think its fully acceptable to be annoyed that NYC was priced to runaway financial salaries. This is especially given that the leverage that made bank ROEs possible jeopardized the whole effing financial system. If you are fortunate enough to pay for a 3,000 sqft loft with three years of bonuses, the least you can accept the cheers of bears. Bears righly recognized that valuations got out of line. The finance industry grab of global wealth has really basically been proven irresponsible if not criminal. Not that everyone at banks made money from packing and selling mortgages and insurance thereof, but all in finance benefited from the leverage. Now you have to eat the impact of the credit contraction on your property in good humor.

And say "Oh, *that's* what the Economist meant three years ago...."

w67, the older generation of bankers never took out a mortgage. When I started on Wall Street (pre-housing boom) everybody paid cash for houses, cars, etc... You got your bonus then you made your purchase. If you couldn't afford what you wanted you waited until next year.

My guess is that Manhattan owners are schismatic: some have held onto their property long enough (i.e. since the stone age) to have actual equity while the rest are de facto underwater and really have no choice but to continue to admire the emperor's new clothes.

My feeling is that '03 is the watershed year whereas most people purchasing pre '03 are OK and most purchasing post '03 are in danger. If I had the data I'd do a more thorough analysis. I'm sure someone is already doing this as part of some study of manias. I'd be interested to see where the housing boom '02-'08 stands in terms of U.S. financial manias. I bet it's near the top.

80s man, not everyone who needs to sell bought at 2007 prices. Few properties are selling, but a fair amount are going into contract at prices that are around 2003 levels. I know people who worked at Lehman for 20 years who lost their jobs, and some of them still had a mortgage and a couple of kids in private school and not enough cash to want to hang around.

tribeca, i was abused mercilessly as a fool on SE for selling my Chelsea loft in 2004. they were right, i guess, i should have sold in 2007. hear that spunky, i just said that on some (very tiny) level you may have been right.

Rhino, absof'nglutely. if they hadn't driven the prices up, no one would be worried about the decline.

Does anyone know how many coops traded in 2004-2008 vs what is the existing stock? Same for condos? That alone could be a telling stat for consumer spending and the like, not mention estimates on coop and condo purchases in the coming years.

aboutready, what I'm saying is that if you bought '03+ and can sell at a profit today consider yourself lucky and hit that bid.

sorry 80sMan, my incomprehension.

My personal favorite at the Heritage is 20A - a 2,900 sf "trophy" property reduced to $2,411 psf. The only "trophy" the buyer of this apartment wins is "Biggest Idiot" if they pay anywhere near this price. Seller still trying to make almost a 100% profit from his August 2005 purchase - might want to read a paper every once in a while.

StreetEasy History
08/26/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $3,850,852.
08/07/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $8,250,000.
11/08/2008 Prudential Elliman Listing is no longer available.
12/05/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Olshan Realty at $7,795,000.
04/03/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $6,995,000.

tribeca's comments and other owners like him getting upset at real estate bears for posting on SE tells me we are nowhere near a bottom. they blame others, have too much hope; reality has not set in. when we see postings by owners lamenting their overpriced purchase and even linking to their listings, then we will be near a bottom. developers and individual owners are still in denial/hope phase. acceptance around the corner. then capitulation. it's coming. these cycles always play out the same regardless of asset class.

This is way too fast for a bottom. Real estate also lags like hell. People can easily sell at '03 levels today. The problem is that I know of no less than three apartments asking much more. One acquaintance is asking what he said in 2007. No typo. One friend is asking 25% more than the 2006 price he paid (to help cover the sponsor flip tax and closing costs!). Third, my wife's cousins are asking like 30% more than they paid in Columbia U area in 2005. Yes it was an estate sale so I am sure they put some money in, but come on. Honestly asking prices at 2005 is cutting edge for sellers these days... They are always 15% behind. A question near to my head and pocketbook...how long is finance on its ass and what is the 'new normal'? Finance was rocking and rolling in 1997-1998 (compared to any PRIOR period) and affordability in Manhattan was incredibly easier than even these "shocking" 30% reductions. The speed of the -30% speaks convincing to the possibility of -70%. What do things cost in Boston?

Here's a question. Is our friend "tribeca" also "ueside"? In the linked thread, tribeca answers a personal question posed directly to ueside. Bizarro - read the exchange. Then the question is answered minutes thereafter by ueside, to the contrary, as if tribeca realized he posted under the wrong screen name and tried to cover his tracks.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/10003-our-experience-renewing-our-lease

It's just weird. Am I wrong?

What's weirder is that even if tribeca weren't ueside (which seems unlikely), his answer suggests that he lives on the UES (i.e., his reference to PS6). What's all this talk then about a 3000sf loft in tribeca?

By the way, ueside/tribeca has an apartment on the market currently, which would explain tribeca's whining about the bears on this site.

i just read the thread you referenced. i think you are 100% correct. pretty damn funny

i thought ueside just went into contract, tribeca owns downtown. although i did notice the bizarre thread that you pointed out, and both ueside and tribeca are in finance, and the writing styles and irritation levels are remarkably similar. oh what a tangled web we weave....

Maybe tribeca is... wait for it... a liar??

beatyerputz... I now anoint thee SE's Sherlock Holmes... wear thee title well... you have proven yourself a sleuth beyond all others vanquishing colonelKlink, shrimpwrappedinbacon, and now ueside.

From the council of the Knights of Street Easy... you are hereby granted the rights and authority to post on SE with impunity... know that the other knights stand ready to fight with you to the end... signed, w67th, stevehjx, west81, NWT, aboutready, Julia, patient09, Rhino86, 80sMan, Admin, (who else am I forgetting), nyc10023, tenemental, nyc10022, jasonkyle, .....

Let us vanquish the Evildoers and poke little holes in this Bubble that does breath FIRE!

Sorry for taking the liberty of signing for all :)

So maybe tribeca is a broker mole impersonating an owner