Sales Unexpectedly Heating Up!!!!!

Qtip...activity is heating up..probably so. I made a prediction a few weeks ago that a bunch of condos at 340 East 64th Street that were priced below competition would go into contract shortly and they did.

But the fact is that the long term trend for NYC is still down.

Remember, buyer's have different thresholds for staying out of the market. There are those that will buy for 25% off peak, and those that won't. Each leg down will be absorbed by another group of buyers, until the long term trend reverses itself.

Right but when does enough people buying become a market? Many people still want to buy here. They just don't want to be the only ones to do it. With mob scenes at open houses being reported the last few weeks and the sustained and increased level of activity since MD weekend, it may just open up the doors again for full blown activity, enough to stabilize this market.

Very intersting, is it possible to reverse the long term trend...I guess it is. But you have some really strong headwinds hitting you right now. And these trends usually last a fairly long time. A bear market rally is a fun place to be until it is over.

Let me add McHale to my list of i-know-everything-your-an-idiot-if-you-don't-listen-to-me bears. McHale - do yourself a favor, go and vist 10 open houses for $1m and below apts in good to decent areas this weekend, and not just some overpriced crap. Come back here next week and post your findings.

Do you call yourself Qtip because you clean out earwax? Try it on yourself....

Bring it on Real Estate Bears!!! I've got facts on my side. You all are sure not doing your homework! Get off your lazy a$$ and start going to these open houses or just talk to some brokers who actually DO business.

I LOVE THROWING THIS IN YOUR FACE!!! The way you all have torn people apart who've remotely disagreed with you in the past, makes me relish and enjoy every moment of you eating crow!

Qtip, there seems to be this "community" feeling among these fools, and they feel entitled to bully everyone who came to "their" board. Juvenile and bitter. Don't mind them.

You are definitely right, good deals are being bid on and put into contract.

Just curious, are you taking the leap of faith, are you an owner?

nobody has denied that the ready cash available for conforming loans has goosed the entry-level market. i'm not interested in buying, but if i were, it wouldn't be that market. those who buy at $1mm or less now are going to be a bit disconcerted when those $1.3mm properties descend to the same level. just because something is over $1mm it's overpriced crap? that's a sweeping generalization, but i think i'd expect that here.

i spoke to a broker just yesterday. good friend. what facts do you have, btw? any numbers? are you perchance a broker yourself?

Qtip, sit back and enjoy the foaming mouths.

I'm not saying anything over a $1mm is overpriced crap. I'm saying don't go to an open house where the apartment is obviously overpriced.

Go to an open house where it is priced for the current market, which is typically 25% below peak, and an apartment that is priced below $1m.

Luxury apartments are showing strong signs of life too but only ones that have been reduced by 40% or more off peak.

And no, I'm not an owner.

Qtip-you sound like a broker who can't pay his rent as he has had no commissions. time for a new career. dreams die hard and current owners and developers are holding onto rapidly depreciating assets. as long as there are delusional bulls like yourself the market will not find a bottom. we've got another 30% decline coming and the recovery will be slow.

cfranch, you couldn't sense a recovery until it hit you hard in the face and then only if several hours have passed would you realize it.

aboutready, you don't need to speak to a broker to get your facts...try this...

pick an apartment that you think is the best deal out there (forgetting that you think the market is toxic right now etc etc). Track that deal for 6-8 weeks. If it is not in contract by that time or sooner, you either don't know how to pick them or the market is falling faster than prices are being reduced, similar to what we have had from Sept to March.

when has a real estate recovery ever occurred after a credit bubble with prices declining less than half of the ascent, particularly in a time of unprecedented un and underemployment? and when has it ever taken less than 2 years to bottom and another 4-5 of flatlining?

Oh i know, this time manhattan is different. or maybe it's that manhattan is special. we don't have to feel the consequences of a massively overinflated market that had no basis in income reality and only occurred due to financing that was incredibly lax. dream on.

unlike your emotional self i day trade for a living. i use technical analysis, sentiment and breadth indicators to guide by buying and shorting of stocks. you are a classic emotional investor who buys high and sells low. you are on this site to pump real estate as the falling market is somehow hurting you financially. when you and your ilk throw in the towel and take your massive loss i will know it's time to buy. as long as there are perpetual bottom callers the market goes lower. that said the stock market is in the grips of a vicious bear market rally. i am enjoying the ride but have my trigger on the sell finger. will sell my overinflated shares to neophytes like yourself as you jump on at exactly the wrong time.

Until the Wall Strret job market starts to recover - and it certainly isn't right now - then Manhattan real estate will continue to fall.

I know a number of people that were making 6 figure salaries that are now out of work and have nothing on the horizon.

If people are looking it is probably just a cheap way to pass the day. Going to the movies is too expensive.

lr10021, that's a silly exercise. of course it will sell. and then when the sales report for the quarter comes out and everyone finally sees that median prices are in the crapper and sales prices declined whatever percent they declined purchasers that haven't yet entered will say to themselves that they should offer something less because clearly the market is heading down. and in the meantime more distress will occur due to unemployment and severance ending and more apartments will enter the market due to said distress and new development units being added and voila, you'll have another leg down in the market correction process.

this is not rocket science, these are fairly simple economic concepts. they are happening in every overinflated market. NYC is always last to the home price correction party. we've shown up.

"If people are looking it is probably just a cheap way to pass the day. Going to the movies is too expensive"

Good point. I sort of liken the OH crowd to rubberneckers slowing down to look at car wrecks.

aboutready, I am with you, I just can't say that Qtip is wrong. He isn't calling a recovery in this thread, he is just correctly pointing out that a lot of people calling a bottom here...

The likelihood that the pace of the price declines will slow down over the next few months is fairly high..

Huh?

Qtip I have two close friends that are brokers and it's absolutely dead...... you new name is PreperationH.

cfranch, you are a over analyzer, you probably tear everything to shreds by analyzing every single small details, to a point where you can't make a hard decision in your life

And you probably have the I-know-everything-mentality, yet you sit on your lazy a$$ preaching about something you have not remotely spent anytime doing detailed research on.

If you think this is some knee jerk emotional reaction from me, you are dead wrong. I've been monitoring and following this market closely for the last several months. I've noticed the positive and gradual uptick in activity from the last couple months but have kept my opinions to myself while reading the overwhelming bearish posts here. It wasn't easy keep my mouth shut when you bears were tearing anyone saying anything positive about the market! But I patiently waited to see what post MD weekend would bring. I gotta tell you, it's even stronger now.

lr10021, the pace depends on many things. right now we are being propped up by huge infusions of cash into the financials by the gov't, and still things are declining. another leg down in the stock market, increased unemployment, declining rental prices due to greatly reduced household creation rates, these could all have a great deal of impact.

i can't count the number of times people, including economists, media talking heads, governmental officials, have said this is just about over, be it the economic malaise or the decline in NYC real estate prices, or global interdependence. actually, for a couple of years it wasn't even going to happen. then it started to happen, but it wouldn't be severe. then it was severe but it would be contained. then it was spreading but wouldn't last long. finally it was pretty f'ng awful for about six months but of course that's about as long as we can be expected to put up with bad news.

you don't hit a bottom in any overinflated market such as this with these economic issues in a couple of quarters. even with the government valiantly trying to reinflate the bubble. if you want artificially supported prices be grateful the government is giving away conforming loans. in the end that won't do buyers any favors, at least not near to medium term.

McHale, like I said talk to brokers who DO deals. There are plenty who call themselves that but couldn't even do a deal during peak times.

Like I said, go do an open house tour this weekend and report back.

And lr10021 is correct, I'm not calling this a recovery YET. But all signs show a continued stabilization in the market.

This is not some flippant observation. Like I've said, I've been following this market for the last several months VERY closely. We are potentially at a stabilization point based on my findings.

actually as a day trader i make quick intuitive decisions. longer term trades require less intuition and only slightly more analysis. i scan the entire S&P 500 and Nazz 100 nightly. takes all of 10 minutes as i recognize patterns i want to trade very rapidly.

as for RE-i do follow the market and my objective analysis tells me we are having a mild blip caused by the media chewing on green shoots and brokers like yourself leading the dumb lambs to slaughter. if you want to see what a market bottom looks like check out miami. price to rents ratios are inline and activity has spiked with smart money buying at the bottom. count me as one of those. new york is nowhere near the bottom. enjoy the ride down Q!

Let me make this clear: I AM NOT A BROKER NOR DO I HAVE AN APT TO SELL.

I expected these accusations to come my way. When you can't argue the facts you start questionning the the honesty and integrity of the author. I've seen this countless times on this discussion boards. I'm ready, give me your best shot. But try to at least stick to the facts.

cfranch, It is people like you who cannot grasp the current reality even if it is staring you in the face. And being a day trader and a casual reader of this blog does not make you a knowledgable real estate expert.

I am a seller, not a realtor and I can only report to you about my own experience. I am in Midtown, under 1M, and I am getting an average of 3 showings a day since right before the holiday weekend. It has gotten so crazy that I asked for the apt not to be shown for a few days so I could have some peace!! Today my broker showed it 3 more times. I have an offer on the table since last week but until I have a confirmed contract I will continue showing.

i use this blog as a sentiment indicator. the bulls/owners/brokers are the hysterics here and that tells me we are nowhere near a bottom.
i look at charts of real estate prices and read them like i do stock charts. they indicate a market in free fall with occasional plateaus. no market moves parabolically in one direction without pauses or slight retracements. these pauses and retracements come on lower than typical volume. we are definitely seeing this play out in NYC RE. if i could i would short this pattern in a heartbeat.
our difference lies in the way we analyze markets. you take the fundamentals approach mixed with hope. i prefer more objective measures as described above. but since you like fundamentals this article should serve as a rototiller to your green shoots:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Borrowers-with-good-credit-apf-15376981.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

this is the next big wave of foreclosures and they sound like RE buyers in NY from 2006-2008.

Qtip you forget the one wild card....interest rates...30 year hit 5.29 yesterday. Wait till it hits 7,8 9 % with all the money Treasury is printing. Game over!!!

QTIP - if you are calling for prices to stabilize I think we have to see the rental market stabilize a bit and new construction to begin selling off. By my calculations rental prices got a 20% haircut, and new construction is in the gutter. As a seller, you never want to be competing against distressed landlords or developers.

I think once the paradigm of power shifts back in favor of these two groups, prices can begin to stabilize.

westsider3, the same here. I'm selling my (non-primary) apt. in Manhattan Valley. Was dead quiet for 7 weeks, now have offers for full asking. Like you, will keep showing until a signed contract hits my desk. No rush. I think the tide has turned a bit.

Oh cfranch, you are hopeless, like so many of your bearish peers here.

There has always been and still exists a strong desire to own in this city. But nobody wants to pull the trigger and be left with a declining asset. But once people start seeing buying activity, it builds on itself.

You want to use macro level charts and analysis to explain something that is for the most part very local with its own dynamics, some of which are not about numbers. Home buying can be an investment (about numbers) but for quite a few it's an emotional thing. They want to own their own home, have a place to call their own, raise their children and grow old in. The lack of transactions and general fear of economic factors in 4Q of 2009 scared these people into sitting on the sidelines. But as more and more people started to buy, many of these people came back in from the sidelines.

You can't explain this with your charts or figures. And with increased demand, foreclosures won't be an issue as it will be scooped up by buyers.

"if you want artificially supported prices be grateful the government is giving away conforming loans. in the end that won't do buyers any favors, at least not near to medium term."

Again I agree with you, but I actually think behind the scenes the government is trying to stimulate inflation. This is the only thing that can cause a reset of prices, but not necessarily values. One thing is for sure, just about everything in NYC is going up in price with the exception of Real Estate.

Qtip:
You make no sense:
Qtip: "it may just open up the doors again for full blown activity, enough to stabilize this market."

Qtip: Go to an open house where it is priced for the current market, which is typically 25% below peak, and an apartment that is priced below $1m."

Qtip: "Luxury apartments are showing strong signs of life too but only ones that have been reduced by 40% or more off peak."

WTF is your point, that the bears are right? Well you have proved your point if that was it!

McHale, yes I think you are correct with interest rate being the wild card. I don't think rates will start affecting buying activity until it starts hitting the 7% range though. We still have quite a way to go.

But with an interest rate rise, it means inflation is back into play which probably means the economy is improvin and prices of real assets tend to move up in tanden with inflation.

the canard that your condo is not an investment but simply "a place to live in" is very dangerous for one's fiscal health and sanity. for most people there home is their biggest investment. just buy based on emotion is totally foolish. i see it everyday in the stock market. fading those trends can make one a good income. people like you are on the other side of trades i take so thanks for being there!

Patient09 - the bears here including yourself have predicted a continued and long term decline of greater proportions.

Gimme a break, California, Arizona and Florida properties are correcting in many cases over 50% to 60% and we've correct by 25% during the worst economic times since the Great Depression AND you don't think we've potentially dodged something here???

Luxury apartments were out of control and overinflated. $5MM for a 1,500 sq feet apartment, which is now still priced at $3MM? PLEASE. 40% correction is no where near a huge correction for something that was obviously irrationally overpriced to begin with. It was a bunch of Wall Street master-of-the-universe types with overinflated egos armed with outrageous bonuses driving prices up to those levels.

I like to focus in on a market where it was more sensibly priced by which the majority of Manhattan buyers could afford.

Isn't funny how communication works that some speeches come across like they come from real life experience and some others like someone is repeating a prefab explanation of why things are in a certain way? Like "But with an interest rate rise, it means inflation is back into play which probably means the economy is improvin and prices of real assets tend to move up in tanden with inflation." By the way, it spells tandem.

Qtip...you want to focus in a market..... Why, darling, why? Are you buying? Selling? Making deals? Renting? Why are u here. Most of us disclose why, it brings perspective to the different views. Brokers are even required to do so...

cfranch, of course you would think that way about a home because you view it as simply an investment. You can't live under a stock nor raise your kids under one. If it goes up in value, great but many could care less because they don't plan on selling anytime soon, if at all.

mimi, a bunch of posters like aboutready and the like stated several times that they do not intend to buy. So why are THEY here? Be honest.

Qtip:

As an imposter or newbie, you speak with forked tongue. Not once have I said as you would type "a continued and long term decline of greater proportions" If you have read this board for more than the last 24 hrs you would know I speak of exact targets and that I feel we are approaching a bottom and that in certain cases I have encouraged buying at the right prices.
Honestly Qtip, answer three questions.

1. are you being paid to post or do you have a vested interest.

2. have ever read a full thread here prior to the last 24hrs

3. have you in the past posted under a different name

Here come the Month-to-Month comparisons....

Good luck with that

inquirer, we all have a reason. Some of us, and I can think of a couple I know, got hooked while selling, others, like me, while waiting to buy. Others are brokers, I can also think of a few. SE is addictive. Now, aboutready disclosed a lot of who she is that help put things in perspective. I am not saying everybody should, but explain to me how this person shows up of the blue posting hate threads in SE talking about RE as she/he knows about it. Exactly as ericho did yesterday...Hmmm. This is not innocent.

I have been to several OH's and I will confirm, based on my direct obsevation, that the 'under 1M' group is getting alot of attention. Attended an OH 363 East 76th for a hair under 1M. OH was mobed...no question. Paniced RE Agent was overwhelmed and recieved no points for grace under pressure, like the lifeguard at a shark infested kiddy pool. There is no question that there is pent up demand. This is a big town full of lots of bright folks (with nest eggs) that have been patiently waiting their turn at bat. Lets think about mental barriers. Well, there a Million. For most Americans that's alot of money. For most Manhattanites that's alot of money. You thinking, I love this town for better or worse and I'm making it my home. The 'worse' is the cost of housing. You have been here long enough to have accepted the bizare economy of scale when it comes to Manhattan house pricing. Now, the bottoms falling out of housing and interest rates are like a dream. You click on the floor plan for a 2.6M two bedroom penthouse and there by the glow of the LCD screen lies you dream apartment. You eagerly show for the OH for under 1M because down deep you dream that you might grap this 2 bedroom for 800,000. Still way more than you wish you had to spend on these tiny 1200 square feet that could only measure that much if you used the same ruler men use to measure themselves. So there you stand at that open house with all the other dreamers thinking...the exact same thing. Only time will tell where this market is really going. Bear this in mind, if this market doesn't over correct it will be the first time in recorded history.

mimi, Thank you for correcting my spelling. If you look even more closely at my writings, you'll see plenty more typos and spelling errors. :-) Writing quickly without much care will do it.

You ask a good question. Why have I spent the time to write and respond to so many comments?

The truth? I was a potential buyer looking for apartments here and happened upon this blog. I was quite frankly aghast at how vicious these bears were on these postings towards others who didn't share their same views. There is something about being anonymous which can bring out the worst in people.

I was also appalled by the narrow minded, negative and I-know-everything mentality so many bears had on this site. Thus as I patiently waited for the market to turn, once it was more than a short lived uptick, I decided to stick up for so many who have been vilified on this site.

I don't care what your beliefs are, there is a line that I believe should not be crossed which many did over and over again.

well apparently he doesn't own as he has disclosed that much, and I am not a psychologist but I would put money on it that he is thinking about a purchase and the 25% decline will just about do it for him.

So you are an avenger for the poor bulls here?

Qtip,
A welcome face. I salute you for attempting to talk some sense with all these lemmings.

Qtip, I understand your feelings. Would you care to share some apartments that you are considering??? Lets get away from the personal attacks for a second.

mimi, why ascribe an anonymous board (addictive to some, as you said) so much power that a conspiracy comes into play? I do hope you're not serious.
I've been neither bull not bear but I have to admit that the tone of bears comes across as much cruder, ruder and angry than the other side.

"I've been neither bull not bear but I have to admit that the tone of bears comes across as much cruder, ruder and angry than the other side."

YES, and today's comment by AboutRight calling my purchase of LIC a 'piss-poor' decisions without even knowing one thing about my financial standings!!! How can anyone make such statements without seeing one's full financial picture???

ericho75, the off-hand comments you describe are usually a sign of a not too bright person who believes s/he is smarter than s/he really is.

Folks,

Prof. Roubini (Dr. Doom) himself acknowledges that there is LIGHT AT the end of the tunnel..he's seeing a small recovery by end of the year.

*don't kill the messenger*

inquirer,

Thank You, i thought i was the last person on this earth that sees this recovery coming.
Again folks, do you need me to list all the positive things that's happening????
After today, the list is over 15 items LONG!!!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/11595-new-counter-trend-re-assault-force

As per the above link, I'd say this is a propaganda thread. It's a RE cold war, the board's being infiltrated by a 5th column. Are you now or have you ever been a member of the RE ponzi party?

earth to ericho75: Dr.Doom is talking about the economy in general, this is a NYC REforum

Qtip=Viral Marketer

dwell, like I have told every non believer, GO TO 10 OPEN HOUSES this weekend preferably under $1MM in moderate and good neighborhoods and report back to us.

Like so many of your fellow bears on this blog, nothing anyone can say here will change your stubborn a$$ views. You will have to see it for yourself.

patient09,

Are you saying NYC realestate is not affected by the economy? I hope you agree, if not it goes to show how brain wash some of you bears are.

Da, Comrade Qtipovich, I go to open haus.

dwell,
cracking me up!

falco,

whut "crack up"? I buy many partmints. Market good.

er: all real estate is local

ericho: settle down, why do you think my condo in fl is down 40% and my land on the Chesapeake bay in Md is unchanged. It is all local, beginning of story, end of story.

Buffett Aide Says Housing, Economy are not Near Recovery

By Michael McKee

May 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing market is nowhere near recovery and signs of stabilization are premature, said David Sokol, a top aide to billionaire investor Warren Buffett who oversees the nation’s second-largest real estate brokerage.

Sokol was among money managers who told an investment conference in New York the economy is still deteriorating and they don’t have a lot of confidence in President Barack Obama’s economic policies.

“We’re not seeing the green shoots,” said Sokol, head of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., which owns HomeServices of America Inc. “We don’t see improvement.”

MidAmerican is owned by Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, and Sokol is considered a possible successor to Buffett as head of Berkshire. Sokol spoke before reports today showed new-home sales posted their second increase in three months during April, and mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures rose to records in the first quarter.

Homes in the process of foreclosure are creating a “shadow backlog” of unsold properties that will continue to hang over the market, Sokol, 52, said in a speech yesterday at the Ira W. Sohn Investment Research Conference in New York.

While official statistics show a 10- to 12-month supply of unsold homes, “we believe the backlog of homes for sale is twice that.”

Balance in 2011

Many people who want or need to sell their homes haven’t put them on the market yet because the outlook for sales has been poor, he said. “It will be mid-2011 before we see the market in balance,” with no more than a six-month backlog, he said.

The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that the number of previously owned houses on the market in April climbed 8.8 percent to 3.97 million, a 10.2 months’ supply.

Sokol suggested government efforts to ease the crisis are actually drawing out the recovery. “We really need to let the economics work through the system,” he said.

It is still difficult and costly for businesses to borrow, Sokol said, creating “headwinds” for recovery. He predicted the U.S. unemployment rate would rise above 10 percent from April’s 8.9 percent.

Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal who now heads the $2 billion San Francisco-based hedge fund Clarium Capital Management LLC, told the conference the stock market’s recent gains will fade and the price of “long assets” such as houses will continue to fall, while Federal Reserve pump-priming will mean “inflation in all the wrong places.”

Solving ‘Wrong Problems’

The administration’s economic policy is aimed at solving “the wrong problems” by trying to raise short-term growth instead of creating conditions to improve long-term productivity. “We’ve had phenomenal growth but median incomes have barely gone up since 1971,” said Thiel, 41.

That’s because a drop in support for research and development means “there is far less happening than meets the eye” in science and technology. “Innovation is barely enough to keep up,” Thiel said. “There can’t be a V-shaped recovery until we fix the science problem.”

Paul Singer, founder of the $13 billion hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. in New York, said he sees a period of volatility ahead, as “deflation, inflation and monetization clash over the next year or so.” A rush to impose new regulation on the financial industry may backfire, Singer, 64, said. “I rue and fear this upcoming period of retribution,” he said.

‘Back to 2006’

Greenlight Capital Inc. founder David Einhorn accused the Obama administration of slowing recovery by trying to “take us back to 2006” economic conditions through deficit spending and by propping up failing institutions.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is “leading us down the wrong path” by refusing to force banks to recognize big losses in their portfolios and recapitalize, Einhorn, 40, said. Instead, Geithner is counting on banks to earn their way out of trouble as the economy recovers, a strategy that postpones expansion, he said. “Hope is not a good strategy.”

Einhorn, who announced at last year’s Sohn Conference that he was betting against Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., criticized Geithner, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for their handling of the financial crisis. “Why wasn’t more done between Bear Stearns and Lehman to protect the system?” he asked.

Peter Schiff, who oversees about $1 billion as president of Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Connecticut, also criticized the combination of deficit spending by the government and a massive expansion of bank reserves by the Fed, saying they risk “out of control” inflation.

“We can’t solve a problem brought on by too much borrowing and lending by more borrowing and lending,” he said. Schiff, who forecast a debt-driven recession three years ago, said the Fed’s purchase of many of the new Treasury securities issued to fund the deficit resembles a Ponzi scheme.

“I don’t know why they got Bernie Madoff in jail,” Schiff said. “They ought to make him secretary of the Treasury.”

cfranch,

You claim to be a chart guy...
What pattern are you seeing here?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IYR#chart1:symbol=iyr;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Inverted head and shoulder? Peak volume at the lows? Both MACD and RSI continue to have positive divergence. Say no more...you are NOT watching your charts carefully.

I feel quite sorry for the entry-level buyers. It's going to be quite a shock to them when the market corrects from the top down. That apartment they got for $875k isn't going to seem like such a good deal when the next level drops down from $1.2mm and above to under $999k, which is what we are seeing.

I am on here for many reasons. One of them, i'll confess, is that a few years ago i WAS interested in buying. I looked around and what did i see, a massive bubble. On this forum i was frequently told i was out of my mind, there was no bubble, i was an idiot to rent, and a loser if i couldn't buy or hadn't already bought. i saw brokers encourage their clients to stretch. i am witnessing the pain that occurs when people foolishly follow their hearts and not their heads. you might say i'm here as a bit of an activist trying to encourage an environment that includes a bit of rational thinking and perspective, and moves beyond the frantic hype of purported momentum.

aboutready - what evil empathy. How is an entry level buyer supposed to take your comments? Are you trying to save them from themselves? Or make them feel horrible about their purchase? Is that another reason you are on here? Yes, by all means please let us know when its OK to buy again.

i can tell you that the time is not now. and what are your thoughts for buyers and sellers? what are your goals for them? how can everybody make out well?

i am one of the few that is supportive under many circumstances. but to encourage anyone to buy just because a bubble is showing a bit of renewed froth is nasty. there is NO hurry.

those who have recently bought, with a couple of really uptight, insecure and seemingly overly defensive people (and if they're so certain they bought at the right time why do they present thusly?), are not on this board. you really don't get me, and that's fine.

and it's just the truth. this market will, because of restrictive lending at the top and excessively easily lending at the bottom, correct top down. and yes, i do feel sorry for people who listen to people like you.

If you're a buyer, grow a thick skin already! Regardless of the state of the housing market, if buying suits your personal needs & finances are not an issue - why should anyone be able to make you feel bad?

Exactly, and under those circumstances, and even some slightly more tenuous ones, go for it. my comments are meant to address the notion that it is generally a good time to buy because everyone else is doing it.

10023, the OP referred to you as one of "the bears." happy to have you as company in the cave, but a certain lack of nuance seems apparent.

If you are a first-time buyer and these negative sentiments are making you feel bad, could it be that you would not be able to stomach a drop in the market? Then, you really should not buy. I am not an optimist, but I own - latest purchase '06. Because I made a thorough analysis of the situation, and continue to monitor the market - I don't feel bad about my decision. The minute I start feeling a little wretched, I would bail (partner has veto vote of course). I just wonder if you are buying for the first time, if you are going to be truly prepared for market turbulence. Certainly, if I could find a long-term lease for a place comparable to my residence, I would start getting ready for a sale.

I am happy to be a housing bear. Actually, I am bearish & cynical about everything - to the extent that bears fretting about the market seem almost positive to me.

Look, if you are a first-time buyer, do the analysis I did when we first bought a decade ago. Be prepared to walk away from all your equity and possibly have to bring something to the table to close (or short sale!) If this is your inheritance or some hard-won savings that won't be replenished for a long time, don't do it. Ask yourselves how stable your jobs are and what your prospects are. The problem with prices now is that unless you are in a super-stable profession is that any decline could mar your financial picture for a long time.

I dont get it? Ive been reporting on the pickup in activity since we dropped to first comfort zone since late JAN?

Whats with you people?

I just dont get it. Your uber bearish in late 2007 when Manhattan is at peak, and S&P at 1500. Stocks tank, but Manhattan holds. Bulls claim Manhattan is immune, in a world of its own, supported by weak dollar and foreign buyers. Bears continue to argue their points about macro fundamentals and nature of this crisis.

Late 2008, Lehman fails, sparking manhattan's plunge as sales volume completely freezes. It lasts a good 4-5 months. Come FEB, with prices down a good 20-35% or so depending on price point, a fall that BULLS comepletely argued was not possible, occurs and buyers step in during what is normally the most active season for Manhattan real estate.

So, uber bear turns way LESS bearish now that process started and publicly announces this months ago, and openly discusses the pickup in activity now that we reached the first comfort zone - on a month to month basis yet warns about such a analysis in seasonal markets. Markets operating as they should - prices high, volume stalls, prices fall, buyers re-enter at new level. Bulls scratch their head that prices can actually fall in Manhattan. Year over year, this is most sluggish bonus season in past 10 years. Yet, now all the bears were wrong.

This is your argument?

What am I missing?

"Like I've said, I've been following this market for the last several months VERY closely"

Oh, well then I apologize. You are indeed an expert then and although your telling us nothing new, I for one, will listen. Thanks. Several months, wow, must take a lot of time/energy.

UD, you're not missing anything. They just want to turn this into a pissing match. The bears, as cfranch points out, are not busy typing things in all caps and adding numerous exclamation points and making breathless exclamations, we're not full of rage or bitterness. We are simply reporting. There are a few bears who like to throw out gratuitous insults and attacks, but that is not the common bear on this board. Some of us own, many of us have owned in the past, quite a few of us could have bought over the past few years (although we may have had to make compromises we felt were unacceptable), but what they can't stand is that we have no regrets and have no sense of urgency. That's what they want to whip back up, a sense of urgency. They want us to feel stupid because we just don't get it, can't see what they can see, a market full of life and vigor. Well, i guess one can see many things when one puts on the rose colored glasses, and somebody seems to have been handing those out by the truckload.

As Jeff wrote, the bottom will be in when everyone is so sick of the topic they can't muster a good paragraph to discuss it.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/392484-coop-22-east-88th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

22 E 88th Street - 6F is asking 2.5M

10F SOLD at peak for 3.375M. Why is this not selling? Certainly, we dont expect 4 floors to deserve a $875,000 premium do we, $218,000 per floor the new formula? I dont get it? Sales are heating up? Its asking 24% less than same unit that sold at peak, and is renovated? And thats the asking price! Why is it not selling? If things are so active, this should move immediately no?

Im on record for saying this market is way more active, but to say bears are wrong because of a tick up after a big drop in prices, is quite silly isnt it?

i think they are talking up the under $1mm market, which of course our fearless leaders are goosing like mad. this will only skew the sales numbers even more surprisingly to the downside, when they come out in little over a month. the bulls had those numbers consistently exaggerated up due to new construction and the high-end market for a couple of years. this could get interesting.

aboutready - Everyone has their own reasons to buy. Feeling sorry for those who have thought their decisions through relative to their own circumstances, seems like just another form of bearish rant wrapped up in pretty paper. All I have been doing is looking at data and offering that comparing it to past years is risky given the new world in which we now find ourselves. I also think the inventory of properties -the data point upon which everyone seems to be hanging their hats, is seriously corrupted. I disagree with those who are calling a bottom and any other seers who pretend to know where it's all heading.

under 1M is least affected by this crisis, is moving the most, and is trading down about 15-25% from peak depending on the usual variables that come into play for a property valuation.

unrenovated, low floor, no light, poor view, and just OK location units are still hard to move without a discount closer to 25% though.

the effect of no recruiting classes for banks and law firms is just starting to hit. I sense desperation in the rental market which will further impact the for sale market. all RE will be further impacted by the rise in rates. good morning!

but marco_m, open houses are packed and phones are ringing off the hook? Stop talking about this reality stuff, Qtip doesnt like fundamentals.

UWSmynabe, i get your point. remember, my post here is in response to Qtip's post. i don't think that we're that far apart on the issues. my point was simply a factual one, with an underlying real concern for those who are once again feeling unnecessarily pressured. so many people have overbought, and seen assets decline in value. i have been speaking with many young first time buyers, and they are genuinely afraid that if they don't buy now they won't be able to in the future. and many are encouraging those thoughts. i do feel for those who buy under those circumstances, for those reasons, when the top-down issue is very real.

the data has been corrupted fairly consistently. there have always been properties on the market for extended periods of time. the difference now is that the property that's been on for two years is more likely to have become desperate than in the past. the data is immeasurably better than it was just a couple of years ago. then just about the only accessible data you could get was the miller/samuel data as spun by elliman. i will totally concur that there is a lack of transparency, but if you've been following this for years you get a fairly good sense of what is happening. and the data is getting better, and people like you who question it's content and reporting will only make it more so.

marco_m, that rental market should be something else this summer. all those huge west side buildings going on, the ones in harlem that should be converting soon, the condos. i think the atelier alone has 65 units available for rent. so much supply, so much less demand. even many of the top law firms are rolling in their first years over a 6 month period. and going forward, there's no demand for new people, at least without getting rid of more of the current people, for a year or two. increased supply meets decreased demand.

ericho
lots of charts like that and as i said i am long this market based on such patterns. lots of resistance coming up though. on the monthly chart it is stalling out on lower volume. not what you want to see unless you are looking to short. what the real estate ETF has to do with manhattan RE is a mystery to me however. i believe only toll brothers has any developments here. maybe you should read the following stories:

some good news:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKIMFZ8iTLFA&refer=home

yet:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUqBHrdSoP6s&refer=home

my contention is that as the economy heats up, rates climb and RE falls. the stock market attracts cash from investors not RE. unemployment still rising especially in NY. law, finance, media, arts, communications, advertising and even government shedding jobs. only healthcare adding jobs and that usually means a drag on the economy. NY consistently enters recessions later and hence revives later. RE going down. no fundamentals to support it. buy in miami. classic signs of bottoming there.

the rental market is toast

AR, you know I like you and respect you but I think you over react to positive posts. I think stevehjx got a lot more abuse than you did and even if you did feel like you got abuse, there is no need to dish it back out again. You're coming across a little too strident in my humble opinion.

I can see and support qtip here because I agree with him/her with this quote:

"I was quite frankly aghast at how vicious these bears were on these postings towards others who didn't share their same views. There is something about being anonymous which can bring out the worst in people.

I was also appalled by the narrow minded, negative and I-know-everything mentality so many bears had on this site. Thus as I patiently waited for the market to turn, once it was more than a short lived uptick, I decided to stick up for so many who have been vilified on this site."

This is less to do with a pissing match but more to do with common courtesy. let ppl post both sides of the argument without disparaging replies.

Too much to ask I know but good on qtip for doing this in the first place and keeping their cool with the responses.

and patient09, I have been on SE since the start and don't remember your reasoned purchase recommendations so I guess it's easy to miss them.

Just sayin'

divvie, you may be right. a certain confrontation yesterday left me with a nasty taste in my mouth.
but, if you look at the OP, there is a certain mention of throwing things in certain people's faces.

i have a tough skin, much tougher than earlier. but i don't think it's unreasonable to respond to a comment like that with like. and you must be referring to other threads? because i re-read this and i made a brief reference to being a broker (probably uncalled for) but certainly nothing else that i see as personal in nature.

and i still hold that i am far more supportive of individual decisions than many. i am not a one-size-fits all bear. i value your opinion, so i'll try to be mindful. but i won't respond very positively to being referred to as a grandparent attending an orgy.

Thanks ar, for taking that so well.

I must now sheepishly admit that I did not read op's last line about throwing it ppls' faces so when someone (you?) referenced nyc10023 being called a bear that one confused me.

Yeah, I am really talking about other threads but you're right; of course you have every right to dish it back out to the ones who insult now.

divvie, if you are referring to my comment about my earlier days on this forum, that was just a reference. believe me i am over that, it seems comical today with where we are now, but it is interesting in that it shows the evolution of commenting here. these days i get far more random and gratuitous personal attacks, regarding my husband's fidelity, my supposed appearance, my bitter lonely existence. but those don't bother me in the slightest.

i would generally agree that in most investments at some point the bears would wake up and realize that they had missed the boat, but as much as many would wish that of the bears here , my point is that it doesn't happen in real estate corrections. the bears can be quite late and still do fine, and the bottom will be fairly apparent. and if that isn't true here, well then we're talking another bubble. and i wouldn't want to be anywhere near that, and i would hope that others wouldn't be the victims of that as well.

our last two threads crossed. one thing that i might add, it is apparent that i spend much time on here. i also have a very good memory. not excusing poor behavior, but a comment on one thread may very well have been influenced by a comment on another, if you know what i mean. youcannot is a prime example. he calls me numerous names on threads, insults me, then says he doesn't want a fight so i try to engage reasonably, and when it deteriorates i can't help but have a bit of fun with it. petty and childish, but human.

posts, not threads, crossed.