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"Job Growth In New York City Is Blowing Everyone's Mind"
"( ) the NYC economy added more jobs in January than in any month in 23 years.
Some 31,200 jobs were added in the month, according to a seasonally adjusted analysis of new state Labor Department figures.
"It is an understatement to say that these gains exceeded all expectations," said Barbara Byrne Denham, chief economist with the real-estate services firm Eastern Consolidated, who conducted the analysis."
"However, the city’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 9.3 percent in January 2012, up from December’s 9.1 percent and 8.9 percent in January 2011. Byrne Denham says more analysis is needed to explain the increase despite such dramatic job gains."
is that like erichos bonus money ??? hahahah
wheres zerohedge on todays numbers ?
"The Enduring Consequences of Unemployment"
"Our economic malaise has spurred a wave of research about the impact of unemployment on individuals and the broader economy. The findings are disheartening. The consequences are both devastating and enduring."
"Not since the Great Depression have so many Americans been unable to find work for so long."
"Losing a job also is literally bad for your health. A 2009 study found life expectancy was reduced for Pennsylvania workers who lost jobs during that same period. A worker laid off at age 40 could expect to die at least a year sooner than his peers.
And a particularly depressing paper, published in 2008, reported that children also suffer permanent damage when parents lose jobs. "
another big week for zerohedge..how does he feel about todays adp numbers ?
"ADP Comes Right On Target"
"And... goldilocks. The ADP report, which was expected to print at 206K came just where it was expected, at 209K, almost magically so, in what is probably the closest number to consensus in a long time. The previous number was revised to 230K, which means this was the 2nd drop in 3 months, and the first drop of the 3 month rolling average in the past 6 months: peak private jobs? And while the ADP has historically been a horrendous predictor of the NFP headline, this gives no actionable hint to those wishing to trade the payroll data, which in turn means that if Bernanke wants to undo his "New QE" skepticism, the decision will have to wait until Friday when equities are closed."
alright lets hear the zerohedge gloom and doom
Employers Added 120,000 Jobs in March, Fewest in Five Months
Average weekly earnings fell to $806.96 in March from $807.56, today’s report showed. The average work week for all workers decreased to 34.5 hours from 34.6.
Would be nice to talk about the employment associated with the population buying real estate in NYC or Manhattan.
There's no one with an average weekly earnings of $807.56 who is buying property here.
U.S. Stock Futures, Dollar Fall While Treasuries Rise on JobsQ
Hey w67.. stock futures fall, so RE will fall too.. hahahaha
Gold Gains After U.S. Adds Fewer Jobs Than Forecast in MarchQ
no need for zero hedge to illuminate this shit number--pretty awful on all fronts--and we're losing discouraged unemployed workers in droves again
it'd better snap back nicely next month or bernangst will atart with the next bank handout
"Inital Claims Soar Again, Ninth Consecutive Miss To Expectations In A Row: BLS Back To Propaganda School"
"There are those who thought last week's massive Initial claims miss was the last one. They were wrong. Instead of printing at the expected 370K, an improvement from last week's already big miss of 380K, this week came at a whopping 386K, the worst standalone print in 4 months. Well, until last week's revision that is: instead of the 380K print that stunned everyone, last week's number has now been revised to a massive 388K. Why? So that mainstream media can declare, with a straight face, that this week saw the number of initial claims decline!
Here is the reality: last week's expectation was for a print of 355K. Instead we got a number of 380K. Now this number is being revised to 388K, and is the biggest initial expectation to revision miss since early 2011. Needless to say, this means two things: 1) the transitory bump associated with record warm weather, which was nothing but pulling from the future, is now over, and 2) the April NFP print will be another disaster, which is just as the Fed wants it - after all it is time to start setting the stage for the NEW QE (and certainly not QE3 which is already in place as Jeff Gundlach was so kind to explain) now that Obama is the margin hiker in chief.
The chart below shows the difference between the actual print (revised) and the expectation survey: 9 straight misses in a row."
so the fed wants a bad payroll number ? wow this guy is a looney
"BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE"
This was a big miss.
Headline ADP jobs created was 119K.
That's well below 170K that analysts had expected.
Last month was revised down from 209K to 201K.
Current consensus is for around 160K for this Friday's jobs report.
Those estimates might come down.
Futures are falling after the news."
thanks for the after the fact commentary. can I have some predictions please ?
about 7 weeks ago
ignore this person
report abuse "Job Growth In New York City Is Blowing Everyone's Mind"
All those are useless jobs that only harm the economic in a long term, such as TSA gropers, Tech bubble jobs, advertisement jobs, real estate sales jobs, high-end networking jobs, escort jobs. None of them are benefitial to human being.
Im taking the over...+180K
What if its below +100K? What would the market do then?
bonds rally stocks drop..stocks probably finish the day up since its just gonna be low rates that much longer
115k.,,, not good
marco, good one - no matter the number, it is bullish.
Wasn't below +100k, but 115k is much less than consensus... mkt sold off mildly and bonds rallied... let see if stocks finish the day up. so far you are right on in how mkt would react.
the revisions were good at least. gonna be a tough haul from here to close up.
marco, good one - no matter the number, it is bullish.
clear, concise, well thought out point.......
"People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981"
"it is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000. This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.
Let them eat cake.
O camp will love this unemployment #. next thing they'll pay people to exit labor force. marco will love it too
i agree in general the employment numbers can't be compared to historical numbers (i.e. 8.1%) when such numbers don't count so many people who fall off the backend. participation rate can be used to see real level of employment and recovery. Although, there may be a case to be made that even in better times we would expect these to be lower than historical values... but even so not this low!
i wonder what time equities are going to roar back up?
unemplyment rate is a joke of a number..no question. as long as we keep seeing positive pay roll numbers, the rest will take care of itself.
marco, payroll up 115k, population growth 180k. we need more than just positive payroll #
of course we need more, but at least we're moving in the right direction.
I agree with JButton, the line isn't zero, its population growth. So relative to that, the real payroll change is -65k. Not doomsday but not really in the right direction (recovery) yet either.
hmm with the 10yr at 1.875% eguities closed close to the lows of the day..
rates are low cuz the Economy blows.. economy blows
"ADP Private Payrolls Print At 133K, Miss Expectations; Manufacturing Jobs Drop Two Months In A Row"
"That the ADP would miss today's expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow's NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better - should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar. Which is why the ADP print, which indeed was a miss, of 133K raised eyebrows that it wasn't bigger. Still, 3rd consecutive miss of expectations in a row, and 4th out of the last 5, it gives the BLS enough rope with which to hang itself, and potentially the president, who may have no choice but to sacrifice job creation "momentum" heading into the presidential race, in order to keep stocks higher.
Note the -2,000 change in manufcaturing jobs. We for one, can't wait for that "doubling of exports in 5 years" Obama promised 2 years ago."
expect a sub 100k # tomorrow
69k ut ohh
the good news is that Obama is out!
"JOBS REPORT DISASTER: JUST 69K NEW JOBS CREATED, UNEMPLOYMENT RISES, DOW PLUNGES 2.2%"
"The number is out.... It's bad.
There were just 69K net new jobs created in May. That's well below the Wall Street consensus of 150K.
Unemployment ticks up to 8.2%. It was 8.1% last month.
The market hates the news. Dow futures are off 202 points.
But what about revisions to past months? In the past they've been getting revised up.
But they were ugly too.
Last month was revised down from 115K to 77K."
well we agree on something macro
Job growth was weak in May. Just as bad: the type of jobs the economy did manage to add.
According to today’s jobs report, 422,000 more Americans were employed in May than in April. (The figure is based on a monthly survey of around 60,000 households. The more widely cited figure of 69,000 payroll jobs is based on a separate survey of employers.) That isn’t a great number, but it’s better than April, when the number of Americans with jobs actually fell by 169,000.
But the job growth is coming entirely from workers getting part-time jobs. The number of Americans working full-time fell by 266,000 in May, erasing all the gains of the past three months. The total employment figure only rose because 618,000 more people got part-time jobs. Many of those people would rather be working full-time: The number of people classified as “part time for economic reasons” — meaning they’re working part-time because they can’t find a full-time job — rose by 245,000 to 8.1 million.
the headlines are calling this a "terrible" jobs report.
Jeez, who posted this thread with the horribly wrong title?
"CHART OF THE DAY: The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
"With today's punk jobs report, it's time to revisit this famous chart from Bill McBride at Calculated Risk...
What it shows is the trajectory of job losses and gains from the start of the recession and the "recovery" compared to all other post-WWII job losses and recoveries.
As you can see, this collapse was totally unprecedented compared to past ones, and the recovery was far weaker than any others.
Just check out that red line."
and some think we hit the lows in RE in 09'... just wait
well, they're already wrong in many cases....
"As Job Openings Plunge By Most Since May 2010, Beveridge Curve Goes Berserk"
"The BLS April JOLTS survey was released earlier and it was ugly - of particular attention was the number of "job opening" which collapsed from 3.741MM to 3.416MM, a drop of 325,000, which just happens to be the biggest decline since May 2010. It is also the 6th largest drop in history as the second chart below from John Lohman shows.
Adding to the dire jobs picture was the New Hires number which dropped by 160,000, the biggest sequential drop since April 2011, and finally separations, which after months of increases (remember: more separations is a good thing supposedly, meaning people are confident they can find better paying jobs elsewhere), had their biggest drop by 81,000, also the most since April 2011. "
"ADP Says Better Than Expected 176K Private Jobs Added, Of Which Only 4,000 Manufactuing Jobs"
"The ADP Private jobs report is out, and in June America allegedly created 176K private jobs, better than expectations of 100K, and up from last month's 136K revised print. What hasn't changed is the continued lack of correlation between the ADP and the NFP report, nor the ongoing deterioration in claims. More importantly, Obama's promise of doubling US exports in 5 years from 2 years ago may be in jeopardy, since of the 176,000K extra jobs created, a whopping 4K was in manufacturing, the rest, or 160,000K, was service jobs."
streeteasy is always hiring:
If you look at the fluctuation of the jobless claims between the beginning of June and today, which is for the end of june, the #s have been flat! No improvement.
"June Employment Report: 80,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate"
"Nonfarm payroll employment continued to edge up in June ( 80,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Both the civilian labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio were unchanged in June at 63.8 and 58.6 percent, respectively.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from 77,000 to 68,000, and the change for May was revised from 69,000 to 77,000. "
"This was another weak month, and the revisions for the previous two months were offsetting.
This was below expectations of 90,000 payroll jobs added."
"Obama Calls The Jobs Report A 'Step In The Right Direction' "
definitely no good. romney crushed obama on tv today
"It Could Take Longer Than Anyone Thought To Escape The Unemployment Black Hole"
"The more sobering view comes from the Brookings Institution. As of June, the U.S. faces a “jobs gap” of 11.3 million jobs since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007. Under the assumption of 208,000 new jobs per month, it will take until June 2020 – or eight years – to close the jobs gap. At 321,000 jobs per month, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels by August 2016."
"ECONOMIST: The Jobs Slowdown Is A Myth, And The Expansion Is On Track"
"The economy has created some 902,000 jobs through June of this year, running at the same pace seen in 2011 — when 1.840 million positions were created.
The question is, is that enough to put Americans back to work?
According to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Chief Economist Chris Rupkey, it is.
Rupkey notes that the 153,000 average in 2010 was fast enough to lower the unemployment rate 90 basis points in 2011 to 8.5 percent.
From the end of the labor market recession in February 2010 when private job losses stopped, the economy has created 4.372 million jobs."
Sorry, but the creation of 169,000 jobs per month after the largest recession and job loss since the great depression is not an accomplishment. I am agnostic on the NY RE market, I thought it would drop more but it hasn't. But I do know the US small business and manufacturing market and things are not all wine and roses. They are no longer dismal, but no one is adding jobs they don't have to and the only businesses I know that are doing gangbusters are in manufacturing automation.
Every businessman I know is spending more of their capital reducing labor than increasing sales.
July 19, 2012
"Unemployment returns to recession level"
"Job gains for the city were not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from hitting double digits, according to state data released Thursday."
" Despite continued job gains, the city's unemployment rate jumped to 10% in June, from 9.7% in May, matching its recession peak, the state Department of Labor reported Thursday.
The jobless rate was more than a full percentage point above last June's figure.
"It's definitely sending a message that residents are having a harder time finding work this year than last year," said James Brown, principal economist at the Labor Department."
Read more: http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20120719/ECONOMY/120719854#ixzz21Anr2uRo
job gains at the low wages level and job losses at the high wages level .. nice trade off ...
* [The bank said it plans to cut senior positions, but it still plans to hire junior employees through channels such as regular campus recruiting, meaning overall headcount may increase by the end of the year, Viniar said.]
"Deutsche Bank To Lay Off 1900, As Meredith Whitney Predicts 50K Total Wall Street Layoffs"
"Deutsche Bank is laying off 1900 people. 1500 of them are in the investment bank.
This news comes as Meredith Whitney's been chatting with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV this morning, and just as she started explaining why she thought Wall Street's big banks would initiate massive layoffs (50,000, actually)."
big number tomorrow...im taking the over....+125k
"JOBS REPORT CRUSHES EXPECTATIONS, BUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 8.3%"
"The jobs report number is out, and it's good. But it's not amazing.
There were 163K net new jobs, well ahead of last month, and well ahead of expectations. Analysts had only been looking for 100K new jobs.
PRIVATE payrolls surged by 172K. That's well ahead of the 110K that was expected.
But there is a dark side.
The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% although this was due to a miniscule move and a rounding error..
And U-6, which is a broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and the uneremployed, rose to 15.0% from 14.9%.
8.3% as you mention is also impacted by the shadow unemployment effect. As more jobs are created, those that were deemed no longer looking for work (discouraged workers), re-join the job searching population as unemployed again.
Still 1 in 6 are not working (or under employed)... Is it better than 2009, perhaps... But not far from good.
"Baffle With BS Continues: Non-Manufacturing ISM Better Than Expected As Employment Drops To Lowest Since 2011"
"The strategy to keep everyone utterly confused and merely chasing momentum and trends continues. After the surge in this morning's NFP report, driven entirely by statistical fudging and part-time jobs, which has sent the market higher by well over 1%, we next get a Services ISM update for July according to which the US non-manufcaturing sector improved modestly, to 52.6, on expectations of an unchanged print at 52.1, making the case for NEW QE even more distant.
But wait, just to keep everyone totally baffled with BS, the ISM says that the employment index dipped below 50 for the first time since 2011, printing at 49.3 from 52.3: in other words, the employment in the US services sector is now contracting, something which the NFP number roundly denied. Confusion? Mutual exclusivity? It doesn't matter to algos, who are confident that the Fed will certainly launch more QE with the S&P at 2012 highs no matter what the facts say. "
"CHART: The Dwindling Number Of Wall Street Bankers"
"News hit over the past few weeks that a number of Wall Street heavyweights, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, were once again cutting payrolls, while others, like Bank of America Merrill Lynch, were lowering bonuses.
Since the recession began in December of 2007, New York City has lost more than 18,000 bankers from its ranks, making it 10 percent smaller today."
"We thought it made for a pretty interesting chart."
"New York City’s unemployment rate stuck at 10%
Number of city residents employed has remained essentially flat over the last twelve months"
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/new-york-city-unemployment-rate-stuck-10-article-1.1138041#ixzz246rWr01E
SO bullish!!!! Buy now or FOREVER be priced out!!!!!
TSA gropers are hiring
Looks to me like the chart is in the same pattern as 2004 to 2006. Maybe it is bullish.
But rents keep going up. Go figure.
Mainly because people aren't buying, and finding renting more attractive, even at the higher rents. Of course, the "higher" rents are still lower than peak... one study said they were at 90s levels in real terms.
That being said, there was a report saying vacancies are up... we could see a decrease.