2,700 units going live in Williamsburg in 2010

how about filling in some actual data, sources....otherwise, whats the point?....what is this 2700 number??

jerry -- there is limit of 10 idiotic,content-free postings per hour....just so you know

anyone can post saying sky is falling...and it might be right...but what's the point without some data, analysis, something....

jerry,
you "walked by" warehouse 11 and determined it was garbage?

jmgjag...that gem was what prompted by reference to content-free posting....

http://nymag.com/realestate/features/57904/

Yeah, the 2,700 number is pretty much unfounded. I should update that list I put together many months ago, but I'm fairly confident that the first number should be a 1 and you'd have a more credible number. There's a lot of inventory - that's never been denied. But the overstatements I've seen at times (5,000, no 10,000!) are truly la-la-land. There's a fair amount of rentals coming too (and yes, some of them were always intended to be rentals).

A six month old article that was heavily discussed on SE at the time but that you only ran across this morning. That's your content?

No, just trying to remind people this market has more downside potential.

great
so you swiped a NY magazine from your shrink's office
it has pretty pictures of problems in Williamsburg
and you levitated yourself to north 11th street.
How do you know that warehouse 11 is garbage?

Jerry, the New York Times reports no difficulty in renting the newer buildings:

http://tinyurl.com/yzf7ljl

... so the condos shouldn't be too difficult to sell this year.

Let’s not forget the units that were pulled off the market and the ones purchased by sponsors.

that new thread aboutr has going about new dev is interesting...the issue is how low psf manhattan new stuff has to go to seriously impact wmburg (not that it already hasn't already impacted wmburg some)...

alan, great post!

Alanhart, not sure how you can correlate renting condos with buying condos???

Never go full retard.

thxs.. sometimes I need to be reminded of the full retard thing.

i thought truthskr was referring to jerry

I was indeed referring to Jerry's kid.

And w67's comment could also be taken as just an "oh yeah" instead of at himself.

All kidding aside, you all must agree that prices will decrease by 5-10 percent in 2010 in WB.

Jerry, did you read the whole article?
Williamsburgh has sticktoitiveness ... it can only go up in value.

Come on man, there is more downside risk at this time.

Time will tell

hee hee its not "Sticktoitness" that W burg has. It has toxic waste dumps, gang wars, and excess capacity that will put units on the market for the next several decades. if you buy in this dump you will not get your money back......

Jerry the joker here must be a reincarnation of one of the old clown handles that got hounded off or blocked by everyone at SE. It seems that Jerry's kids and his sad newbie sister minocqua who apparently just arrived and decides to resurrect every old thread out there will be providing the entertainment for 2010.

You got it Baywatch

:-)

petrfitz is right. The waste dumps frequently travel on the J train from the LES, the gangs fight over whose mama was born on Pitt St, and the "excess capacity" refers to the brain cells vacated when one has imagined he lives next door to Celine Dion (a frequent occurrence in music-friendly Williamsburg).

bjw you can try to deny it all you want but W'burg aint Manhattan. And it is a fact that W burg has the highest rates of murder and gang problems in all the "prime" Brooklyn neighborhoods.

It is also a fact that it sites on former manufacturing sites that all contaminated and the Greenpoint toxic waste plum as well as the Gowanus superfund site flows underneath W Burg.

Stop denying these facts and maybe you will have some credibility.

petrfitz...several maps on the internet show the plume going only into greenpoint...do you have another source?

petrfitz, you're correct, Williamsburg is not in Manhattan. I don't know where you get your murder and gang stats, but those are quite wrong. It's a very safe neighborhood and like elsewhere in the city, the stats keep dropping year after year. The toxic stuff you're talking about is actually emanating directly from an unknown individual's bank accounts on Pitt St after he/she bought some derelict building there that magically doubled in value after the rezoning that everyone knew was coming into effect.

An updated tally of what's left/available, including "shadow" inventory, and anything at least 50% completed. And please, if anyone has anything to add/subtract/correct, feel free to do so - it's a work in progress, but should provide a fairly accurate picture of the true inventory in the neighborhood (which is roughly bounded by North 15th, waterfront, the bridge, and BQE). From this tally, 1,115 units essentially ready, and about 350 with big question marks.

1 Northside Piers = 23 units
2 Northside Piers = ~230 (have heard 30% in contract, but I'll say half of that)
The Edge = ~400
125 North 10th = ~25
70 Berry = 25
90 North 5th = 10
Warehouse 11 = 120 (just put back on market, presumably lost old contracts)
80 Met = ~50
471 Keap = 9
196 South 2nd = ~20
120 South 4th = 18
101 North 5th = 5
Rialto = 6
nforth = 1
111 Kent = 63 (not technically on market, but most construction completed)
14 Hope = 11
Aqua = 4
Sevenberry = 1
254 North 6th = 3
268 Wythe = 6
135 North 9th = 4
165 North 10th = 1
218 North 8th = 1
210 South 1st = 1
242 South 1st = 1
136 Met = 8 (not technically on market, but nearly complete I believe)
186 Grand = 4
170 North 5th = 18
144 North 8th = ~45 (best guess, no number released, could be rental)
106 Havemeyer = 1
55 Berry = 1

Some buildings with unclear outcomes:
349 Met = 42 (half were/are in contract)
Urban Green = 44 (all were/are in contract)
66 North 1st = 21 (some were in contract)
52 North 1st = 41 (less than 50% built, unclear if rental or sale)
173 Kent = 113 (less than 50% built, but looks on its way, though unclear if rental or sale)
Steelworks Lofts = 88 (conversion, but no work has been done)

Some extra units east of BQE that are worth mentioning:
135 Conselyea = 3
149 Skillman = 1
1 Powers = 14
116 Conselyea = 1
154 Skillman = 1
105 Ainslie = 1

ahhh, actual facts, thanks
i find that 111 kent bldg interesting, it looks near done and very nice, but not even listed
those ph's look very nice particularly ph2,3,4

52 north 1st appears to be an abandoned rusting skeleton
and there's a big one just rising out of the ground on Wythe and 2nd (I think)

i think the big unknown re: that list is how many of those contracts that are counted as off the market will actually close. i think a significant # will not

this is helpful bjw, thx. kiz - was going to say the same thing, i'm especially thinking of 80 met. also 105 ainslie is on my saved list and it looks like there are more units available - negligible though for purposes of this discussion given the size.

freewilly, you're right - there are 6 units actually available at 105 Ainslie, but yeah, negligible here. Thanks though.

kiz, looking at the contracts out that haven't closed (and are therefore at risk), it's less than one might think. NSP2 and the Edge are the big ones, with probably a few stragglers at 80 Met. Not sure if closings are scheduled yet for the first two, but that date will be rather crucial in determining what happens in the neighborhood going forward. I'd think most people looking to buy now should like to wait til then before signing a contract

when you look at 80 met, they had approx 45 contracts signed pre-completion out of approx 110 unit. Look how few have closed since closing began about 3-4 months ago. It seems the majority of the rest of those are not going to close. this may also occur at the edge.

Where's Jerry?

kiz, true, though I imagine many of those stalled closings are renegotiating whatever terms they can instead of truly walking away. On a side note, I could do without Jerry, even if he was pretty darn wrong.

I hope that there is some renegotiation going on, that would be healthy for the market
Yes, I would not shed a tear for a Jerry-free world. It seems he blew his whole load of nonsense in one day.

Thanks bjw..interesting.My ulimate interest is "where can I get a bargain...and when"....thoughts:

- projects that have followed more or less a policy of still pricing very high for most of the good units with views (edge, nsp) account for half or more of the inventory....so if you're thinking of ultra-bargain hunting, those aren't too fruitful an area to look; The Edge tells interested buyers it won't cut much, and nsp has cut strategically, and seems to be doing pretty well on nsp2 ( lots more units with great views), having sold 20% or more they say; i spoke to someone negotiating with them now,and nsp2 is playing pretty tough on concessions

- most of the other inventory is scattered around, so hard to generalize, but the rapid sales at 70 berry suggest you can clear inventory (apparently 70 berry now has 2/3 in contract or contract at lawyers)

- 111 kent looks nice (what cross st...will the one beds looking south have a view or be looking at a high-rise)

- there is a very big project going in at 201 berry, like at 3rdstreet, and i think the list would benefit from that kind of project on the list because it impacts what buyer choicees will be say later this year

- people on this board talk a lot about people walking away, but little evidence of it actually happening (altho some lawsuits, but that is a different tactic), and hard to say 80 met current prices so low that it will induce walking away

Being more specific, warehouse11 is offering high floor units for roughly 550$, bit more if small outdoor space, and might be amenable to throwing in storage or whatever. Does looking at these inventory figures make it look like that can be matched or beat, roughly, in other buildings this coming year?

Good work bjw. Nice change of pace to see actual numbers and not just baseless opinions.
As far as the numbers go the fact that the two major projects comprise such a large percentage of the inventory is particularly interesting. The conjecture on the board is always focused on the result of a price reduction at nsp or the edge. Just to play devils advocate what if those prices climb? or probably more likely what if edge turns into a rental property?

Moxie - good questoin. The hold-out against major price cuts at THe Edge is possible, I suppose, because they think they can keep selling at such prices (although the pace seems slow..), and I am guessing it depends on part on what happens in Manhattan new dev prices, because the place may seems cheap relative to that market....i dont know...aboutr would have a better view of how this might unfold

jim, some thoughts to go along with yours:

"so if you're thinking of ultra-bargain hunting, those aren't too fruitful an area to look"
I've been pushing that thought for a long time it seems. Your best bet, generally, is to look for sponsor units that are among the last few in a development. They're almost certainly in the black by then and probably eager to get out, so much more willing to negotiate deeper discounts/concessions.

"but the rapid sales at 70 berry suggest you can clear inventory"
Yeah, I agree. That corner of North 10th/Berry seems to have a bit of a magic touch though, if you will.

"111 kent looks nice (what cross st...will the one beds looking south have a view or be looking at a high-rise)"

111 Kent is pretty interesting - listings were on the market early 09, only to be pulled shortly thereafter. Construction seems to be about where the Edge is in terms of completion, but no activity on the marketing front. It's between North 7th and North 8th, so has protected views due to the waterfront park directly across the street. Prices were as aggressive as I've seen in Williamsburg, I believe even more so than the Edge/NSP2. No idea what will happen here, but I don't anticipate these being cheaper than say, Warehouse 11.

"there is a very big project going in at 201 berry, like at 3rdstreet, and i think the list would benefit from that kind of project on the list because it impacts what buyer choicees will be say later this year"

Yeah, that's the Quadriad building that had been a hole in the ground for years. It's going to be a fairly massive rental complex. I hesitated putting the big rentals on here (didn't the first time around either), but fully agree that they are relevant here. If we stick to the large rentals (which are most important for these purposes anyway), I think that gives us 229 North 8th (occupied), 184 Kent, 34 Berry, 44 Berry (occupied), Quadriad (completion is still a ways off), and 120 North 12th (ditto).

"people on this board talk a lot about people walking away, but little evidence of it actually happening"

Agreed - but it is worth mentioning as a possibility. We'll see what happens.

bjw2103,

Does your inventory included all of W'Burg or just the NS of W'Burg.

It's all explained pretty thoroughly in the post.

I don't believe 2,700 units are coming to or available in W'Burg this year but the number of units is higher than 1,115 units.

By how much? Your claims are empty without a little concrete proof behind them. That was the point in my tallying the inventory up by hand.

One way of judging the quality of any SE post concerning price action or inventory numbers is count the number of I's in the post (I believe, I feel, i think ect.) Where it is interesting to know what people think it sure decreases the data points.

as an owner with intentions of staying in N. WB for forever basically, i'm glad that there's lot's of inventory because it means more and more people, hence more gentrification. that brings more stores, restaurants, amenities, etc... AND it increases the middle class demographics and probably test scores at all local schools altho schools like 132, 31 and 34 in district 14 are great now. bring it on please. when i cash out 20 years from now, pretty sure i'll have done very well.

bjw2103,

I don't trust you as far as I can throw. I addition to your count, I think 200-400 new apartments are coming to W'Burg in 2010.

although slightly outside the parameters you guys set, there is oakland and bridgeview, that would maybe give you another 60-80, otherwise i don't see where these hundreds of units are (unless you add domino!!!)

kiz,

I will retract from 100-300.

mut -- not clear what you're saying with the word "retract"; can you list the units you're talking about

mutombo, I don't trust you period. You throw out numbers without any thought or evidence. Par for the course for you, but just makes it doubly hilarious when you talk about other people having ulterior motives.

kiz, not unreasonable to add those, though they're definitely in Greenpoint (along with a few others).

bjw2103, Thanks for the tally.
It's more reliable than some of the phony commentary you read on this site. It's exhausting reading useless comments like "I'll retract 100-300".. gimme a break. Back it up with some concrete information, and spare us the wasted pixel space!

this is from last year but a good map of projects....

http://archpaper.com/e-board_rev.asp?News_ID=3716

(i cant find anything showing 120 s 4th as active)

jim - that's a good find. Also more high rises coming to south WB by our favorite developer:

http://www.brooklynpaper.com/stories/33/3/33_03_ac_markowitz_rose_no.html

Rosenberg was reportedly looking to rezone that piece of land he owned since it would raise its value and allow him to raise money to buy back the 34mm loan owed to Capital One for w11. Did he make the deadline? The saga continues...

bjw...I went through most on the list. This gets confusing as to what's going on with some of these as you noted, say urban green, 349 met, 66 north first,...so you wonder if they will end up as sales at cheaper levels or rentals.

jim, that's a great find, though there are a couple errors on there, even for the time it was published. 120 South 4th is finished, or close to it, I believe, but has a lis pendens, which will hold up any activity for the time being, so maybe should have thrown it on the questionable list. With 349 Met and 66 North 1st, I think we'll see the same thing that happened to W11. Urban Green is a complete mystery to me however.

I have no idea what this thing really means..but...this Kent Avenue /Wmburg Plan..shows a proposal to channel truck traffic up and down 10th and 11th streets.....and also Metropolitan...

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/downloads/pdf/kent_ave.pdf

jim, that proposal is actually now a reality, with the floating parking lane, loading lane, and two bike lanes a reality. Part of the issue with the trucks was that, as Kent was a two-way street, they were using several different roads to travel through the neighborhood. Now, they are doing their best to divert all truck traffic to Kent, Greenpoint Ave, McGuinness, and Meeker, unless making local deliveries. It should only get better in terms of noise and traffic for residents.

jim, where do you see 10th and 11th street mentioned?

Look at the arrows on the map. I wouldn't have noticed but some blog mentioned it as a double-whammy back and front of w11 building.

Also...ny post article on trucks on north 11th:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/item_ELgM0sanMNCXHkfj25CxPP

Given that construciton and deliveries can start early...this is not such a minor issue, I would think.

Its not mentioned J but I'm afraid he is right. Look at the map at the bottom and look for the solid blue lines that mark out the routes. 10th st and 11th st.

If neighbors get riled up enough to go to a meeting specifically on that issue, it's not a good sign. No mention of n 10th, so maybe it's not the issue quite.

There's some confusion here - 10th and 11th Streets have always been truck routes. Some residents have been unhappy about that, and this plan has alleviated some of that. Trucks can no longer travel southbound on Kent, so North 11th is no longer viable as a route for those (they were mostly using it as a path to the BQE). Northbound trucks along Kent did the same thing, but are now being diverted up to Greenpoint Ave unless making local deliveries. Some trucks coming up Union would also North 10th in the same way to get to Kent; I'm not as clear if anything is being done there, but I would guess they'd be diverted to Metropolitan or Broadway.

guys,
traffic on kent goes south until 14th, where it turns east
next block, wythe goes south. One block east of that is berry, which goes north
traffic on north 10th goes west, so you can't turn east onto it from southbound wythe,
or east onto it from northbound berry.(or kent which goes north up to 13th st)
So, nothing that's been done, or is in the planning, will send more trucks down north 10th
other than the ones that have been going west on it forever.

Thanks guys. Honestly, I had no idea that north 10th and 11th had had always been truck routes, and just stumbled across internet blogs mentioning the issue. To me it's a potentially serious issue, and if, all things being equal there were other streeets without the issue, I'd prefer them. Even light truck traffic can be a big irritation if rumbling along at early hours when all else is kinda quiet, or if moderate during regular hours. I was more worried about this for 80 Met.

Brooklyn guys explain it to the manhattan guys..thx J

This is a bit astounding, even in light of how strong the rental market's been in Williamsburg. South 8th Street? That's legit South Williamsburg (ie: below the southside - it gets confusing, I know). Wow.

http://curbed.com/archives/2010/01/13/bidding_wars_break_out_for_new_williamsburg_rentals.php#more

FYI,

http://curbed.com/archives/2010/01/13/bidding_wars_break_out_for_new_williamsburg_rentals.php#more

Is this in the tally?

bjw
What a name for a building....Zazza. All I can think about is that scene in godawful godfather 3 when Andy Garcia(Vincent) kills Joe Mantegna(Joey Zaza).

"Hello Joe.....bang.....Zazaaa."

mutombo, again, if you'd read the original post, you wouldn't need to ask these questions. Rental and below the bridge, so not included. Besides, looks like they're going to be mostly occupied rather soon.

truthskr, count me among those who think that Godfather 3 gets a bit of a bad rap. It's not on par with 1 and 2, but not nearly as bad as some think.

bjw2103,

Again, your tally does not include ALL of W'Burg?

mutombo: read.the.post. Hopeless.

bjw2103,

I read the post SMH and your hopeless.

Did you change the boundaries in W'Burg? Thats what it seem like.

"but should provide a fairly accurate picture of the true inventory in the neighborhood"

How? You cut W'Burg in half.

My claim remains more than 1,115 units are coming to W'Burg in 2011 which coincides with the OP's mission statement. LIES.

No, I didn't "change the boundaries." As I've told you countless times, the Bedford area is largely its own market, and is truly the focus of the Williamsburg boom anyway, so it makes sense to look at it as such (you would know this if you bothered to actually gain insight on the real estate market here). The stuff that I would be excluding is largely non-existant anyway, as there's much much less development south of the bridge (in fact, there's only one building on Broadway that I can think of). Whatever you're trying to prove (unless you're trying to show how poor your reading and thinking skills are), it's not working.

My apologies to those who have to wade through this back-and-forth bs with mutombo - he 's made it personal and can't help myself.

bjw2103,

"the Bedford area is largely its own market, and is truly the focus of the Williamsburg boom anyway,"

That should not excluded you from tallying ALL units coming to W'Burg in 2010. As you marginalized the neighborhood to fit your needs. The 1,115 units available in W'Burg may be exact to the boundaries you outlined but does not tally the units available in the entire W'Burg. As the OP stated 2,700 units coming to W'Burg in 2010 not 2,700 units coming to W'Burg in 2010 where bjw2103 outlined.

I highly assume you don't venture out to "east" W'Burg as there are many of new construction bldgs there no matter how small the bldgs are the units available in those bldgs still add up to a greater total of inventory coming online in 2010 to W'Burg which is greater than the numbers you tallied which you called "accurate" (hilarious). Someone said you're incomprehensible, your not, to twist shit the way you do you have to comprehend you have such an AGENDA.

bjw2103,

"Some extra units east of BQE that are worth mentioning:"

This is hilarious.

bjw2103,

The L, I, E, S keys on your keyboard need more regular tune-up than the rest. Being the hall monitor doesn't mean your views are true - you know that right?

"That should not excluded you from tallying ALL units coming to W'Burg in 2010. As you marginalized the neighborhood to fit your needs."

You can't read. I added up units that are for SALE, not for rent. You also don't understand the principles of market segmentation. Regardless, all you do is criticize and offer no concrete facts or even analysis of your own. Sounds like you're the one with an agenda, brother.

"The 1,115 units available in W'Burg may be exact to the boundaries you outlined but does not tally the units available in the entire W'Burg. As the OP stated 2,700 units coming to W'Burg in 2010"

Why stop there? Why not add up all of Brooklyn? Or all of New York State for that matter? Think a little about why you'd want to look at certain areas instead of just adhering to neighborhood names. Do you think a buyer looking for a co-op on 5th/Madison/Park even considers anything on 2nd Ave? Different market. Same goes for the areas in Williamsburg that are further out - the area I looked at is actually quite large. It's too bad you've proven yourself to be a complete moron and seem to have a deep infatuation with me (really creepy). This thread was pretty good until you showed up.

Also, to clarify, there's been absolutely no corroboration of the 2,700 number. Maybe you can give it a shot...

Remember last May's article from the real deal?
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/new-york-city-s-future-ghost-towers

...."David Maundrell of brokerage firm aptsandlofts.com said there are 5,432 apartments available or under construction on nearby blocks."...

Even if some of the apt have sold since the article was published. that leaves quiet a sizable number of apt available in Williamsburg, even if you include rental.

While i don't trust brokers in general, in this case, since this guy specializes in Williamsburg and specialize in renting/selling apts, he has definitely more credibility than bjw regarding the inventory in 11211.

sledgehammer, really? Because there's no evidence that it's anywhere even remotely close to what Maundrell said. Maybe he just doesn't know - did that occur to you? Like mutombo, if you've just got empty criticism and zero facts, I'm not sure you're adding anything to the discussion.

An inherent problem with a lot of these discussions is the neighborhood boundaries in question. As i currently live in a nabe that has been called the UWS, Morningside Heights, Manhattanville, Central Harlem, SOHA(south harlem).....blah blah..As far as i can tell the only really clearly defined nabes are those that have some historic(landmarked) boundaries. One man's North Slope is another persons Prospect Heights...one persons brooklyn heights is someone else's Cobble hill..east williamsburg? or bushwick? clinton hill...
So with that being said i find it commendable when someone takes the time to put pen to paper and submit some data. If you want to refute that data do the same an offer a competing analysis of data. As we are now in 2010 offer sales info showing wburg(?) available property and property under construction that should be done in the next 11 mos. If you don't want to take the time and energy to do this(understandable) then you are really in a poorer position to defend your claims.

bjw2103,

If you only tallied units for sale and excluded units for rent your 1) leaving out part of the equation and your 2) incorrect, disseminating incorrect information, its all basic mathematics. To say only 1,115 units too be sold are coming to W'Burg within the boundaries you established and not include rentals along with for sale which will create a greater number of units is ludicrous.

You're too pompous thinking someone has an infatuation on you.

"Also, to clarify, there's been absolutely no corroboration of the 2,700 number. Maybe you can give it a shot..."

There's been a corroboration of the 1,115 units for sale you say are coming to W'Burg in 2010?

The rest of your post is complete gibberish. The fact remains more than 1,115 units are coming to W'Burg in 2010. You gave yourself all the rope you needed.

bjw2103,

This thread was going great because you were flooding it with your consistent lies and I put a monkey wrench in it?

"1) leaving out part of the equation and your 2) incorrect, disseminating incorrect information"

Read the whole thread - I definitely addressed rentals, but it's very tricky to add them up, especially given the transient nature of many renters. Most of this board is devoted to buying and selling real estate though, so don't give me your bs. It's correct information unless you think I have the wrong number of units in certain buildings.

"There's been a corroboration of the 1,115 units for sale you say are coming to W'Burg in 2010?"

Yep, in the listings on this site, as well as publicly available information as to the total number of units in buildings where they haven't officially released all (or any, as the case may be). And again, this isn't just units "coming in 2010," it's units that are already here or at least ~50% complete (which I'd expect to be done by year-end). What have you contributed here? Nothing. Read moxie's post - you're a joke.

I like Williamsburg. I like Saturdays. I like chocolate chip cookies. I think its going to rain chocolate chip cookies on Saturdays in Williamsburg........in 2010

bjw2103,

I'm not concerned about oxycotin, its between you and I. The fact remains, you lied about units available in W'Burg. You can't justify your lies.

FYI!

Neither can bjw2103, justify his agenda. bjw2103, knows how to read watch how this plays out LOL. Ahem...agenda.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12808-city-to-turn-unsoldstalled-condos-into-affordable-housing-willamsburg

Its going to rain price reductions in W'Burg.

FYI!

LMFBBAO @ the marketing billboard.

http://curbed.com/archives/2010/01/14/brokers_say_warehouse_11_fire_sale_will_only_burn_briefly.php#more

I should have just heeded this advice: http://gentoo-blog.de/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/please-do-not-feed-the-troll.jpg
I am too fascinated by incredible stupidity.

bjw2103,

You're too pompous.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12808-city-to-turn-unsoldstalled-condos-into-affordable-housing-willamsburg