NY Renters Upper Hand Going Away?

"But already in Manhattan the days of mega-concessions seem to be seem to wrapping up, at least in the most desirable neighborhoods. In New York, Equity Residential, which has buildings on the Upper West Side, Chelsea, Murray Hill , the Financial District and elsewhere, said it has stopped paying broker fees for certain unit types. In better times tenants pay that fee, typically one month’s rent."

Ifanyone cares to look at the threads I was saying the same thing about a week ago. Start saving for that 15% of annual rent commission check boys and girls. Or be prepared to lose apartments to people who are willing to pay it. Just like 2 years ago

The bit that some are sure to trump up around here: "Of course, headwinds remain: A further drop in unemployment could push vacancy rates even lower. Still, we wonder if perhaps locking in a two-year lease is a good idea."

Frankly, a 2-year lease right now is probably a good idea if you're in no rush to buy, but who knows when interest rates will have risen considerably by then? It's a tough call, and I'm not surprised that concessions are slowing down, but that doesn't mean renting is a bad choice. I do disagree that this is pure spin though - that seems like an off-the-cuff remark.

And there is a fair amount of new rental inventory about to come online, if not already there. I don't see that helping things much, though it does seem that they rent quickly in my experience.

i think it's funny to see something in print that i have seen coming for a while now. i am sure i am not the only busy rental broker to notice. the people right now who are unwilling to pay a fee are frankly only seeing a portion of the market. inventory, has indeed tightened up. that has and will invariably lead to a tightening of concessions of all kinds. soon prices will rise. unless of course you are willing to live in the financial distict, above 96th st, west of 9th ave in the east 30's, and 40's. or brooklyn.

More apts. in NYC + Less jobs= cheaper rental prices

This equation wont change for at least a year

just listed and quickly rented out, on a 2 year lease, a 2br in the west village, prime but not super prime. tide def turning. very happy with price for both years.

I am with you Jim-I could not get a client a studio at Waterside Plaza three weeks ago! 2 apartments availible at 330 East 39'th. Rose took incentives away, Archstone not paying OP on select buildings Kibel only paying on certain units.I don't know if 15% is coming back on obvious open listings-but with the summer season coming up and hiring happening at JP Morgan, PWaterhouse. I just lost a deal with a girl who told Archstone she was moving out-they lowered her rent to $2200 on a one bed! Really good deal.I told her to stay. So I see inventory tightening, incentives slipping and prices staying level.

entry level jobs at pricewaterhouse is lower then a teacher salary. You know that right?

How the hell does manhattan rental inventory tighten during 2010? Seriously??? Do you moronic brokers really think there are masses of people moving to NYC? Everyone knows that there's less inventory during the winter because the vast majority of leases come up during the summer because that's when most college and grad school grads move to NYC (June-August) and their 1-2 leases stay on that cycle for as long as they live in the city. It's blatantly obvious that the landlords are trying to ease off the incentives before the summer turnover which they don't have a chance of pulling off bc no one is moving to NYC bc there are no jobs and more supply is coming on the market. I think the landlords will capitulate in July as soon as they realize the demand isn't there and one of the larger managers moves back to two months of free month. I live downtown and every single no fee building in the neighborhood is still offering one free month and as soon as you mention that another building offered you two months they'll move to two months. Rents are supply and demand - supply is increasing and demand is not. It's that simple.

NYC10013
11 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse How the hell does manhattan rental inventory tighten during 2010? Seriously??? Do you moronic brokers really think there are masses of people moving to NYC? Everyone knows that there's less inventory during the winter because the vast majority of leases come up during the summer because that's when most college and grad school grads move to NYC (June-August) and their 1-2 leases stay on that cycle for as long as they live in the city. It's blatantly obvious that the landlords are trying to ease off the incentives before the summer turnover which they don't have a chance of pulling off bc no one is moving to NYC bc there are no jobs and more supply is coming on the market. I think the landlords will capitulate in July as soon as they realize the demand isn't there and one of the larger managers moves back to two months of free month. I live downtown and every single no fee building in the neighborhood is still offering one free month and as soon as you mention that another building offered you two months they'll move to two months. Rents are supply and demand - supply is increasing and demand is not. It's that simple.

you are choosing not to listen to people who make a living renting apartments to people everyday. that's your problem not mine. im curious where you live downtown. financial district? i mentioned already that if you are willilng to live there, or any other fringe, non residentail neighbhorhood, then yes, you'll get your deal. want to live somewhere established? not happening the same way. believe it or not, doesnt make any difference to me. by the way, i just got finished with an appointment where there was exactly one apartment that fit my clients reasonable criteria. one, not ten.

I'm not morally opposed to "anecdotal" evidence, but I generally prefer it when people consult all the data. In this case, the notion that the Manhattan rental market is bottoming out does seem to be supported by the evidence.

See the following report:

The Real Estate Group NY is proud to present the February 2010 edition of our Manhattan Rental Market Report™, the only research on the city’s rental rates published on a monthly basis.

Manhattan’s rental market continues to sit at what appears to be the bottom of this downturn. Rents are continuing to remain virtually flat in month-to-month comparisons, “up” on average 0.19%, but the gap between year-over-year figures is closing slightly with rents down only 2.99% vs. 2009.

The bright spot is that vacancies continue to decrease. Doorman vacancies are down 9.65% and overall inventories are down 3.02%. Since February has historically been a slow month for the rental market, this decrease in inventories coupled with prices holding steady is a positive indicator that the market is gaining some strength.

Still, landlords and property managers around Manhattan are beginning to become anxious for a price rebound. Yet, as the bottom continues to stretch out, it’s clear that normalcy may return soon, but the road to a full recovery is going to be much slower than many had hoped for

http://www.tregny.com/manhattan_rental_market_report

That said, I think the real test will be whether NY companies hire 2010 college graduates this Spring to start work in the Summer and the Fall. If you don't bring in any fresh blood, I suspect they'll be another step down later in the year.

The pickup in demand indicated above does seem surprising. I work on Wall Street, one of the fortunate ones to survive this crisis (at least so far). I cannot speak for consulting demand, but on wall street there is almost no hiring. People with 10 years experience are applying for jobs that call for 3 yrs of experience, and are willing to settle for the lower paychecks -- just to have a job. Bonuses were up vs a year ago, but anyone with a bonus over 100k got about a third in stock; anyone with 250k or higher got over 50%in stock. Coupled with new buildings coming on the mkt it is hard to see how this spike could be anything but a temporary blip. As to PWC hiring -- maybe. But I will agree that their entry-level pay really sucks.

exactly..just like bonus season dissapointed so will the spring hiring season.

There are not that many new jobs being created and if you are lucky enough to land one you better believe that employers are still using the economy is slow mojo thus reducing salaries.

This thread is a joke, right? Does anyone other than a broker honestly believe this rental market is not going to continue its death spiral downward this spring and summer? BROKERS WAKE UP: NO ONE IS HIRING!!!! Not Financial Firms, not Law Firms, no one! Maybe the census department. I'm sure those temporary census workers are looking for $5,000 2-bedrooms in white-glove buildings. When I continue to see massive new buildings littering the UES skyline that are all dark at night, I know nothing has changed and things will only continue to get worse. We have seen a generation-spanning decline in economic growth, job creation and sadly standard of living that will likely not make a sluggish improvement until our kids are adults.

What do the incentives look like over at One Mad Park? Anyone have a sense yet?

THis site has an article as well. www.realnydeal.com

In a sense, jim_hones10 is very correct. Demand is contingent upon which neighborhood we're speaking of. If you choose to live in the Financial District, anywhere along 11th Avenues of Chelsea, Clinton, and midtown west, every rental building will offer the free month(s) and brokers fee's.

That being said however, try looking for the same deals in the West Village, west of 7th avenue and south of 14th. Perry street, Bank Street, Bedford street, etc. Typical renters will more than likely fork over 4K for a decent town home, and perhaps going up in a bidding war with other renters. 95 Christopher, one of the few high rise doorman elevator buildings in that area, saw it's first non-vacancy in over a year this month.

Bigapple also provides very accurate information on the micro level as well. Glenwood’s Paramount Tower has virtually no vacancies, Archstone East and Murray Hill no longer subsidize some of the up front costs. Even buildings like Lennox Terrace in Harlem, which was deemed to be the hardest hit about a year from today, has no inventory in any of their 5 buildings.

The lack of new hires have hurt the market to a certain extent, but looking back at the year over year comparisons, things are starting to look "a little" better.

NYCROBOT
about 10 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse This thread is a joke, right? Does anyone other than a broker honestly believe this rental market is not going to continue its death spiral downward this spring and summer? BROKERS WAKE UP: NO ONE IS HIRING!!!! Not Financial Firms, not Law Firms, no one! Maybe the census department. I'm sure those temporary census workers are looking for $5,000 2-bedrooms in white-glove buildings. When I continue to see massive new buildings littering the UES skyline that are all dark at night, I know nothing has changed and things will only continue to get worse. We have seen a generation-spanning decline in economic growth, job creation and sadly standard of living that will likely not make a sluggish improvement until our kids are adults.

jesus, why don't we all just commit seppuku now and be done with it.
very few people rent $5000 apartments in white glove buildings. most people "get by" in the 3k-4k range, young people obviously less. you don't really know what you are talking about

takkyamaguchi
6 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse In a sense, jim_hones10 is very correct. Demand is contingent upon which neighborhood we're speaking of. If you choose to live in the Financial District, anywhere along 11th Avenues of Chelsea, Clinton, and midtown west, every rental building will offer the free month(s) and brokers fee's.

That being said however, try looking for the same deals in the West Village, west of 7th avenue and south of 14th. Perry street, Bank Street, Bedford street, etc. Typical renters will more than likely fork over 4K for a decent town home, and perhaps going up in a bidding war with other renters. 95 Christopher, one of the few high rise doorman elevator buildings in that area, saw it's first non-vacancy in over a year this month.

Bigapple also provides very accurate information on the micro level as well. Glenwood’s Paramount Tower has virtually no vacancies, Archstone East and Murray Hill no longer subsidize some of the up front costs. Even buildings like Lennox Terrace in Harlem, which was deemed to be the hardest hit about a year from today, has no inventory in any of their 5 buildings.

The lack of new hires have hurt the market to a certain extent, but looking back at the year over year comparisons, things are starting to look "a little" better

95 christopher i believe right now have ONE unit available for around 4k per month

I apologize if this comes across as a little mean but it is what it is - although it doesn't apply to you if you're an upstanding rental broker. Why would anyone take advice from a rental broker? Even sales brokers (most of whom are looked down upon) look down on rental brokers bc most of them are complete scumballs and hustlers (as opposed to being ethical, intelligent people) - for example, listing no fee apts on one's brokerage site so they can get OP rather than the tenant getting a free month is a little pathetic and preying on people who are moving to the city for the first time who don't understand how no fee apts work. The facts remain that there is always less inventory this time of the year, no one is moving to the city bc there are no jobs (in fact the anecdotal evidence I've seen suggests many firms are still firing people), and there's plenty of supply hitting the manhattan rental market with no demand to meet it. While rents may have stabilized recently due to less seasonal turnover, it's temporary; they will continue their decline in another couple of months as the vast majority of leases come up for renewal and landlords try to hustle to keep their buildings full. To think rents will increase during 2010 is a complete and utter joke.

"entry level jobs at pricewaterhouse is lower then a teacher salary. You know that right?"

They will make around $60k as a base and they hire hundreds of them (if not 1,000) and then multiply it by 4 for their main competitors. Job market in NYC is stronger than most here realize.

@waverly - $60 grand base means that (using the 40x rule of thumb) is that hundreds (if not 1,000) will be competing for apartments that rent for $1500 a month. Good luck wid dat

Or 3 friends will be renting 2/3 BR apartments that go for $5,000.

More likely 2 friends will be sharing a studio wall-up

I'm bearish, but it is false to assert that "no one" is hiring.

I just checked and I am working 150 jobs at Goldman. I have 100 open jobs at Morgan Stanley. Heck, even UBS is hiring people. name a bank and i will tell you at least one area that is hiring.

Also, we are relocating people to NYC. It's not easy, but we have done it.

We're also looking to hire, I would love to hire 2-4 junior people with a sales mentality. And probably an admin.

There's a lot of rental supply and supply is growing. So I don't think rents are going to magically pop up in the near term. But I think there are enough positive trends that the big mgmt companies will probably reduce their incentives and deal with a slightly higher vacancy rate for the next 1-2 years.

Anecdotal, I know...

Of course people are hiring - companies have been hiring the entire time as unemployment went from 5% to 10% - but net, net, NYC is still losing jobs. If you don't believe me you can waste your time pulling the data, I don't feel like doing it.

If your point is SOMEDAY rents will go up, then yes. If you mean RIGHT NOW, no. The most recent brokerage company reports on rentals in Manhattan show that almost ALL types of rentals in ALL neighborhoods - and that includes, per Citi habitats, LUXURY rentals in "desirable" Manhattan neighborhoods - are down year-over-year as recently as the Feb market reports. MIGHT they go up in the summer y-o-y? Maybe. Unlikely. Might they in 2011 or 2012? More likely.

NYC10013
about 3 hours ago I apologize if this comes across as a little mean but it is what it is - although it doesn't apply to you if you're an upstanding rental broker. Why would anyone take advice from a rental broker? Even sales brokers (most of whom are looked down upon) look down on rental brokers bc most of them are complete scumballs and hustlers (as opposed to being ethical, intelligent people) - for example, listing no fee apts on one's brokerage site so they can get OP rather than the tenant getting a free month is a little pathetic and preying on people who are moving to the city for the first time who don't understand how no fee apts work. The facts remain that there is always less inventory this time of the year, no one is moving to the city bc there are no jobs (in fact the anecdotal evidence I've seen suggests many firms are still firing people), and there's plenty of supply hitting the manhattan rental market with no demand to meet it. While rents may have stabilized recently due to less seasonal turnover, it's temporary; they will continue their decline in another couple of months as the vast majority of leases come up for renewal and landlords try to hustle to keep their buildings full. To think rents will increase during 2010 is a complete and utter joke.

as 70% of new yorkers rent, most successful brokers are rental brokers, whether they admit it or not. unless they are very well established with years and years of experience no one has made any money the last couple of years UNLESS they have embraced both sales and rentals.
you're making a big mistake; we don't get licenses just to rent or sell. we can do both. and most people on streeteasy might look down on us, but most of you are wannabe know it all poseurs.
further, there are landlords who DO NOT DEAL WITH THE PUBLIC DIRECTLY. You absolutely will need a broker to get the full scope of the rental market. If you don't want to believe it then don't

jmkeenan: "I just checked and I am working 150 jobs at Goldman. I have 100 open jobs at Morgan Stanley. Heck, even UBS is hiring people. name a bank and i will tell you at least one area that is hiring. "

Just released NYC unemployment numbers. NYC rate is at 10.4%, a drop of .1%

"Financial activities -30,000
Losses in the financial activities sector were largest in real estate and rental and leasing. "

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/pressreleases/pruistat.htm

What's the U6 for NYC?

pulaski, we all know that personal anecdotes mean a lot more than cold, hard statistics. I mean, i heard from a guy who knows a landlord who told him rents are going up. That is all the proof I need.

From the mouth of the horse's ass.

Lest my comment was unclear: I meant "you heard it from a guy who got it from the mouth of the horse's ass."

What's the U6 for NYC?

pulaski - Maybe the data is transposed in the data table but

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/Pressreleases/prtbur.txt

says NYC unemployment increased from 10.4% in Dec 2009 to 10.5% in Jan 2010.

Is that the sound of rental brokers running to get their GEDs to understand what an unemployment number means and how that translates into rental demand?

Rental demand has not increased one iota. The landlords are trying to reduce their incentives bc so many of them are overlevered - they will fail miserably.

NYC10013: "says NYC unemployment increased from 10.4% in Dec 2009 to 10.5% in Jan 2010."
Yes, one is seasonably adjusted, the other is not.
Seasonally adjusted: December 10.5% to 10.4% January
Not adjusted: December 10.4% to January 10.5%

alanhart: "What's the U6 for NYC?"
NYS does not publish this figure. It is provided if you call and ask for it. It follows the Federal U6 measure, due out tomorrow.

Thanks, pulaski

So the upper hand is now on the other foot?

entry level at pricewaterhouse make about 45, those guys cant even get dates! On top of being boring they make peanuts and work long hours. Might be one of the worst places to work I can think of. I would kill myself before I would work there. Those guys are sharing studios in fringe hoods of Brooklyn and not getting laid EVER!

If the upper hand is in the shoe of the foot in the mouth of the horse's ass, wear it.

samadams - I won't disagree with the long hours and making peanuts, but they haven't made $45k as a starting salary for a decade.

NYC10013
about 4 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse pulaski - Maybe the data is transposed in the data table but

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/Pressreleases/prtbur.txt

says NYC unemployment increased from 10.4% in Dec 2009 to 10.5% in Jan 2010.

Is that the sound of rental brokers running to get their GEDs to understand what an unemployment number means and how that translates into rental demand?

Rental demand has not increased one iota. The landlords are trying to reduce their incentives bc so many of them are overlevered - they will fail miserably.

only stupid people think everyone else is stupid. i'm curious to know what noble work you do for a living.
anyway, i could care less about your hypothesizing about unemployment numbers and rental demand. to use a coloquilism, you don't know shit.
i work with renters, landlords, buyers and sellers all the time, and have done for a number of years. had demand increases yet? no
but have vacancy rates gone down and (some) incentives pulled away? YES

Maybe you can't get the incentives anymore because you telegraph that your clients are transfixed on particular blocks or that you're convinced there are no incentives anymore? You're an easy mark?

"So the upper hand is now on the other foot?"

LOLOL
What is that from?

The rentals are tightening because of the seasonality.

NYC10013-Why would anyone take advice from a rental broker? Why would I take advice from an accountant-after all everything I need to know is on Turbo Tax, why take advice from a an estate lawyer-every living will is available for free on line, why take a film class when I can get Making movies for Dummies? Why go and get my oil changed I can read about how to do it online? Home Depot is giving free lessons on plumbing I could save thousands of dollars installing my own toilet? Why not just do everything myself? The reason people who are moving to NY turn to rental brokers is because after a careful initial consulation determining there price, size, location, building and apartment renovation desires, there finacial situation, determinng whehter it would be a waste of time to go to a Manhattan Skyline building (which requires a years worth of liquid assests in the bank to qualify) as opposed to oh let's say an Equity Resedential building which only requires 36 times the rent to qualify and allows new hire's to combine income, the new arrival can get an apartment in about a 1 day as opposed to 2 weeks of running around. In addition that person would be able to see all the Pan Ams, Manocharian and Bldg property's that are unavailible without a broker (in addition to condos and co-ops ) which are generally not Open listings. On top of that with the incentives changing daily a good broker will guide their clients to the best deal availible. And in the last year what has this cost the new tenant? Nothing-unless the landlord was offering that incentive to be "switched into " free rent.So in short -people turn to brokers for the same reason that anyone else turns to a professional-to save either time or money or have access to their expertise. Spend 10 minutes interviewing the broker and find a good one and you can save both time and money in your search.How is advertising a NO Fee apartment on my website unethical? If you use my services and the landlord pays me, and I disclose that?

Your examples are flawed. The level of skill required to be a rental broker is far lower then that needed to be a tax accountant, lawyer, or even film director. Certainly than to be a pluber, etc, etc. The fact is its VERY easy to become a broker. Furthermore, as with so many things (think travel agents, retail stockbrokers, customer service reps, bank tellers...) technology (in this case the Internet) has clearly disintermediated many brokers. And rightfully so.

And for the record, for simple legal or tax advice - turbo tax and so forth ARE just fine.

Just want to say that not all brokers are scum. Keith Burkhardt was great and I would have no problem working with him to find a unit in the future.

As for hiring, the number of new Associates and Analysts was miniscule this year compared to previous years. Combine that with the fact that we didn't do much hiring for a while and that's going to be a sting that NYC will feel for a while. Plus several banks are no longer here and others are paralyzed for the immediate future.

Bigapple2, please, please, please tell me you didn't compare yourself with a T&E attorney. Sure, some people need your service, but you're not a chef, baker, pastry chef, restaurateur, sommelier, no it's a waiter position and your helping people pick the Sheppard's pie vs. the meatloaf off the menu , cause you just tasted it back in the kitchen.

For christ sakes the CORE group hires ex gay porn stars to be brokers...

Jimbo, you've been flogging this same tired story for at least 3 months:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/16848-for-everyone-who-thinks-they-are-going-to-continue-to-push-for-more-rental-concessions

Have prices actually gone up in the meantime, or is it just around the corner as it was 3 months ago?

BTW, did you personally lock in your rent at the low prices?

Try going to the new inventory doorman buildings in downtown Brooklyn or anywhere below 96th Street in Manhattan and securing a 1BR for less than $2000. I wouldn't pay a fee to live in Bushwick or Sunset Park. You're paying a fee in Dumbo or Brooklyn Heights because the competition is fierce and only 1 unit available with that view of the Brooklyn Bridge outside your window. I've noticed that "no fee" folks tend not to give dinner parties, sleepovers, or invite their business associates over for a cocktail or sleepovers. They tend to often get the grungy or out of the way units that have no positive energy or hope. Some with no ventilation...Ted Bundy upstairs...DJs that play til 4am...no heat...etc. The fee paying folks are the visionairies who seem to understand that the joys of life does come with a price tag. A good affordable unit is like a needle in a haystack, and the most talented people in NYC won't give it away for free. The $1600 unit w/fee is the $1800-$1900 per month no fee. When your lease expires next year when the rental market is likely better, your landlord will give you an option of 5-10% increase to start. Those that constantly tell you there are no jobs aren't the ones on the top headhunter's list for people to run or be gainfully employed by major corporations headquartered in NYC, university professors & administrators, hospital interns, young lawyers, bankers, business owners, etc. Not to mention the waitress who earns a nice income at The River Cafe Restaurant. You wouldn't try to beat her out of her proper gratuity, would you? Even the parents of the NYU & Columbia freshmen & graduate students realize the advantages of paying a fee just so their kids can simply focus and enjoy life. The parents also guarantee the lease with their own financial statements & credit. Lucky Kids! They don't stress about paying fees in exchange for fast service and a beter situation for their kids. This is partially how the economic system has worked in this country. Aa a sales oriented country in 2010, its unlikely the system will change anytime soon. Anyway, the fee is about buying a particular type of lifestyle. The same principles exist in all the finer things in life. In Manhattan many landlords of non-doorman bldgs don't advertise. How would you know without access to the network? Change the mindset and you'll see different results in your life. Corcoran/Douglas Elliman/Halstead/and others continue to have thousands of agents. By the way, most of the girls rent the really good lifestyle altering apartments. Good Luck Guys!

comical...i guess when we see the same apartments for rent next month as we did last month, we'll know how things are going

I think there's a slight uptrend on the professionally managed buildings I watch, mainly downtown/Tribeca. Though I'm a non-RE professional and with a very busy schedule, travel, etc. I do pay much more attention than average. I think there was some warehousing and I think because activity picked up a bit that landlords have raised some starting rents, $100 or $200 a month or so.

I'm the one who started the To Fee or Not to Fee thread and generally don't believe that renters should pay fees, but I do believe that good brokers can and do add value, just that the fee should be paid for by the owners and if that happens that both owners and renters will benefit if the model shifts that way in a big way largely becuase more transparency will lower transaction costs in the market overall.

Without reading this whole thread, I think marco_m is mostly correct in his last post on individual owned apartments (and I limit myself to prime Manhattan) if those owners are not hiring good brokers and themselves being smart about marketing. On the Fee or Not Fee thread, I mentioned apartments that are falling apart where landlords aren't investing to fix them up. I actually did see the 1965 Bwy apartment (yes that is outside of downtown/Tribeca) without a fee, and the owner is delusional. Even though the broker said the owner would pay her fee, and that the rent was negotiable, the condition was poor and the owner wanted to wait until finding a tenant before fixing it up. So to save a bit of cash flow, he loses $3600 for the extra month (or possibly longer)-crazy. But again, this is not a professionally managed apartment - I believe the owner lived in way out of the NYC area. The renting in a condo thread that I saw has some important insights for people renting in a condo. I posted my two cents on a similar thread some time ago. But take again the 1965 Bwy apartment I referenced, you can bet that an absentee owner who isn't willing to fix up an apartment to get it rented (that is, when it is most important for the owner!) that he's not going to be helpful to fix things while the tenant is there (these are more of the older condos I'm talking about).

inonada
about 17 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Jimbo, you've been flogging this same tired story for at least 3 months:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/16848-for-everyone-who-thinks-they-are-going-to-continue-to-push-for-more-rental-concessions

Have prices actually gone up in the meantime, or is it just around the corner as it was 3 months ago?

BTW, did you personally lock in your rent at the low prices?

moving to a new building (upgrading, guess the market cant be too bad, and i can't be too bad at my job either). and signing a two year lease. guess why. BECAUSE PRICES ARE GOING UP

By the way, got a free month of rent where one of you retards one of you wouldn't have. prorated

Cool. I don't personally think rents are going lower from here really, but I don't see them going up with any urgency. That being said, nothing wrong with locking in a price for 2-3 years, especially if you leave yourself the option to break the lease with notice after the first year.

Another question for you: what do you think is going to happen with purchase prices? Did you decide not to buy because of personal reasons or because where you think the market is headed?

I think renta are going lower because people have over estimated the recovery and underestimated the unemployment situation here in the city. This spring when the banks and law firms do minimal recruuiting again, landlords are gonna panic and rightfully so. I'm vey happy to be in cash and just waiting for the right place at the right price.

Some of you need to chill out. Is this how you talk at home and at work when you aren't anon?

Jimhones, seriously, you know things others don't know, you think you do a good job, ... great. If you state your peace and the people here don't value your opinion or work, but you have plenty of clients and prospects, then why do you care what naysayers say? Do your thing, let the rest slide.

w67thstreet, jason10006, others - what the heck? You don't like brokers? Don't work with one.

Seems simple to me.

My two cents on the rental market, as someone who has rented 15 months ago and is looking again, is that the market is strengthening. I believe that will continue until after the summer season and frankly if there is a lot of upgrades now through the summer, it may mean that post summer is still at higher rates because the vacancies (again in the better end of the market) would at that time be lower. Leases are a year, maybe two, so the monthly trend is more relevant to renters than a long-term trend. Buying and owning is a longer-term matter so this current increase I'm seeing is less relevant and reliable for where the market may go longer-term, where, in MY opinion, we'll see declines after this dead cat bounce.

Jimjones, sorry but the internet has dissintermediated brokers and continues to do so more and more every year. The typical broker may have known 5x as much as a renter or buyer 20 years ago, 2x as much 10, 50% more five, and maybe 10% more now. With sites like this, curebed, nybits, trulia, etc. its far easier to know just as much as a broker. Its just the truth.

> BECAUSE PRICES ARE GOING UP

Ah, through several years of the worst real estate decline in history... we still can't go ONE DAY without a broker moron saying prices are going up....

"Jimhones, seriously, you know things others don't know, you think you do a good job, ... great. If you state your peace and the people here don't value your opinion or work, but you have plenty of clients and prospects, then why do you care what naysayers say?"

Because he doesn't....

Now, SOME broker know a lot more, and many people DO need a broker because they don't have time to do all the internet research etc. Just like lots of people at my company still use a travel agent (not me, I can always find better deals than our agency.) So I agree with Jim somewhat...I just don't know if HE is one of the top 10% of agents, and I also know most people on this forum are just the types who may know more than the other 90% of brokers.

I'm a broker, but personally, I'm bearish on the NYC real estate market.

The data suggests that rentals are down, but like jim_hones, I'm am experiencing something totally different.

I had a 2 bedroom exclusive at the Oculus, which was rented for around $6k in april of 2009. At that point, it was very hard to find someone, and no one was willing to pay a fee (luckily, we had an OP)

The current renters decided to move, and I spoke to the owner, who said he wanted $7400 for the apt this time around. I warned him that the apt may sit for a while, but he insisted that we try it out.

I posted the apt online last Mon, and within one hour, I had dozens of calls and emails inquiring about the apt. Yesterday, I had an open house, 11 people showed up, and 2 people put in applications, both paying a 15% fee (2 others requested to put apps in this morning, but it was too late). We just had the leases signed and checks delivered this morning.

I am not trying to say that this one deal speaks for the market - but myself and other agents have been experiencing these types of deals in the past few weeks. And like jim_hones has tried to make clear, this is happening is high quality properties in prime locations. For the other stuff, renters still have the upper hand.

______________

Shea T
Downtown Broker
CMB Realty

"I'm a broker, but personally, I'm bearish on the NYC real estate market."

... and Shea T. was never again seen or heard from. To this day, nobody knows what happened ... it's as if he/she vanished into thin air.

Jimmy Hoffa, too.

yes, ignore the data! we have an anecdote!

If we learned ANYTHING from the crash, its that brokers saying "the market is fine, I just sold/rented/farted XXXX" is absolute PROOF that the market is not going down!

Calm down, no one said to ignore the data.

I was only showing that prime properties in prime locations aren't just being given away. Overall, rentals are definitely down.

also, please reread my post, as I stated: "I am not trying to say that this one deal speaks for the market"

Shea butter, then wtf r u saying?

Look, that priest just made a pass at my 6yo...I'm not saying that the priest is a pedophile.. I'm just saying...
FLMAO... Oh no, mr. gumby..it'z 2007 again!!!!

I am only highlighting the point that jim made - about concessions no longer being given for prime, appropriately priced properties.

As I said earlier, overall, the market is still down.

Sadly, it seems many here can't help but project the "evil broker" image onto any RE agent that posts. I said that overall, the market is down, yet you are responding as if I yelled "buy now!".

I will not stoop to your level and will no longer respond to your childish posts.

Good day.

This is the intellectual equivalent of "I'm not a racist, but [racist remark]"

Putting in "its just an anecdote" and then spending several paragraphs going on about it is imho disingenuous.

And, coming from a profession already on shaky moral ground...

"I am only highlighting the point that jim made - about concessions no longer being given for prime, appropriately priced properties."

Again, not very honest... given the data still shows concessions and there are still concessions out there!

somewhereelse - I guess I should have worded my first post differently. I only wrote so much because I myself was shocked at the outcome, as I've seen how down the market is. My example was meant to show that people will pay for good properties in prime locations - which goes for any market.

I could understand your aggressive posts if I were jim_hones and made extremely inappropriate posts earlier, but I am not - so please be an adult and refrain from trying to attack me with every breath.

Of course there are still concessions - but some landlords now feel comfortable enough to remove the concessions, and those with desirable properties are getting their units rented.

Anyway, I do not want to argue with you guys all night long, have fun.

"My example was meant to show that people will pay for good properties in prime locations - which goes for any market."

At the right price... and that price has been considerably lower.
We've been saying that for quite some time.

"some landlords now feel comfortable enough to remove the concessions"

And some have to add them... ON TOP of huge declines in the actual prices.

Again, you have to stop ignoring the data.

"Anyway, I do not want to argue with you guys all night long, have fun."

You seem to say you don't want to argue each time you post 3x in 3 minutes.

somewhereelse
17 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse "My example was meant to show that people will pay for good properties in prime locations - which goes for any market."

At the right price... and that price has been considerably lower.
We've been saying that for quite some time.

"some landlords now feel comfortable enough to remove the concessions"

And some have to add them... ON TOP of huge declines in the actual prices.

Again, you have to stop ignoring the data.

"Anyway, I do not want to argue with you guys all night long, have fun."

You seem to say you don't want to argue each time you post 3x in 3 minutes.

No one is adding concessions you twat. They have not all removed them (thats coming) but there isn't a building out there that has decided to add extra concessions since last year.

"No one is adding concessions you twat. They have not all removed them (thats coming) but there isn't a building out there that has decided to add extra concessions since last year."

Jim, we knew you were slow, but now you're officially a liar. I definitely know at least one....

From TREGNY's Feb rental report...plenty of PRIME MANHATTAN rents still down year-over-year

Upper West Side— Non-doorman studios (-1.11%), doorman studios (-1.03%), doorman one-bedrooms (-0.50%), doorman two-bedrooms (-1.41%)

Upper East Side— Non-doorman one-bedrooms (-0.56%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-1.09%)

Murray Hill— Non-doorman studios (-2.94%), doorman studios (-0.59%)

Chelsea— Non-doorman studios (-2.46%), doorman studios (-2.13%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-3.70%)

Gramercy Park— Non-doorman studios (-5.47%), doorman studios (-0.35%), doorman one-bedrooms (-1.13%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-1.12%)

Greenwich Village— Non-doorman studios (-0.94%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-1.63%)

SoHo— Doorman studios (-2.12%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-8.91%), doorman one-bedrooms (-0.74%), doorman two-bedrooms (-3.21%)

TriBeCa— Non-doorman studios (-4.47%), doorman studios (-7.1%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-3.34%), doorman one-bedrooms (-1.75%), doorman two-bedrooms (-2.67%)

_________________________________________

MEANWHILE prices INCREASED yoy in NON-PRIME Manhattan areas:

Harlem— Non-doorman studios (6.25%), doorman studios (6.08%), doorman one-bedrooms (3.95%), doorman two-bedrooms (1.75%)

Midtown West— Non-doorman studios (2.54%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (0.95%), doorman one-bedrooms (5.71%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (3.57%)

Midtown East— Non-doorman studios (6.83%), doorman studios (3.00%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (0.71%), doorman one-bedrooms (1.22%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (1.67%)

East Village— Non-doorman studios (0.29%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (2.08%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (1.87%), doorman two-bedrooms (8.05%)

Financial District— Doorman studios (1.48%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (1.39%), doorman one-bedrooms (1.08%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (6.26%)

Battery Park City— Doorman two-bedrooms (1.09%)

__________________________________

On average, 5/6 categories were down yoy island-wide:

Non-Doorman Doorman
February '09 February '10 Change February '09 February '10 Change
Studios $1979 $1920 -2.97 $2364 $2241 -5.22%
One-bedrooms $2632 $2594 -1.46% $3395 $3236 -4.69%
Two-bedrooms $3654 $3704 1.37% $5258 $4995 -4.99%

From the same report:

Notable Trends

Slow and Steady — Downward seasonal pressure combined with positive market trends to hold rents flat this month. Yet, even though Manhattan rents have stopped falling, landlords are finding that the bottom of the market is not the reprieve they were hoping for. In fact, it seems that while the rental market is on its way back up, the rebound is likely to be a much slower process than landlords anticipated...

...Concession Tests Results Varied — We reported last month that landlords were beginning to test the market by removing concessions and increasing rents, and it seems that at least some of these tests were successful. While some properties did return to their original offerings, there were equally as many that did not.

.....Desirable areas become more affordable. Many Manhattan renters have used the down market to upgrade their service level or location and with rents for many of the most desirable neighborhoods at historic lows, now is a good time to get into a swank pad. This month’s picks: Greenwich Village non-doorman one-beds, TriBeCa doorman two-beds and Gramercy Park non-doorman two-beds. All are at the lowest price points we’ve seen in over a year.

IN OTHER WORDS, THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT JIM JONES SAYS.

You know what's funny? That the rental brokers are seeing mass amounts of activity in February and March, because you know there are so many people moving in those months, into prime properties of course.

Another 835 apts hitting the market - I'm sure they'll be snapped up like hotcakes by the 835 IB, consulting and law associates who just graduated from grad school and are moving to the city to flip burgers at McDonald's.

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2010/03/09/another_new_luxury_rental_tower_opens_its_doors.php#more

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/505-west-37-street-new_york

Three free months on the UWS??? But all of the rental brokers are telling me the incentives are gone??? I'm so confused...maybe I should just rush out and try to rent a place for 2007 rents...

http://www.columbussq.com/?source=streeteasy#/nyc-apartment-rentals-home-html

I guess they did not get the memo to stop giving stuff away.

No, no, Jim Jones only means LUXURY buildings in PRIME manhattan - i.e. 10% of 10% of the Island.

But wait...is this a brand new luxury condo-turned rental in the West Village where $10k-$50k per month apartments have JUST RECENTLY had the rental asking prices slashed AGAIN?

"Superior Ink, Still Searching for Renters, Tries Cutting Prices [Curbed]"

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2010/01/25/superior_ink_still_searching_for_renters_tries_cutting_prices.php

Yes, this JUST happened folks!

> IN OTHER WORDS, THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT JIM JONES SAYS.

Good rule of thumb. Do the exact opposite of what JimJones, putzfitz, alpo tell you to do and you'll be fine...

Superior Ink is a stupid comparison. $10K and up apartments aren't what we are talking about here.

Pendulum is swinging back from being pro-renter. I'd say it's close to even right now. Next year will not be a renters market so much.

Two year lease is advised.

At minimum, landlords' costs are going up with likely higher taxes, higher maintenance costs.

"Superior Ink is a stupid comparison. $10K and up apartments aren't what we are talking about here."

Have you been READING this thread? No, you clearly have not. TOP, Jim Jones, has been nuancing his argument to say that he is only referring to luxury rentals in prime Manhattan. Thus superior ink is a grat example.

"Pendulum is swinging back from being pro-renter. I'd say it's close to even right now. Next year will not be a renters market so much."

Meaning prices will tank even more?

Yes Jason10006, I was reading the thread. Pick your luxury rental building in prime Manhattan and tell me what percentage of apartments in the luxury building rents for $10K or over. 5%?

You picked a highly niche market and are extrapolating from that.

> Meaning prices will tank even more?

?

> Pick your luxury rental building in prime Manhattan and tell me what percentage of apartments in the
> luxury building rents for $10K or over. 5%?

My building, its probably a third.

bump

three more landlords this week have pulled the owner paid commission concession
inventory is getting tttttttttttttttttttttighter

Is that what you tell your boyfriend. Cause girl, he says it doesn't feel any tighter.

"inventory is getting tttttttttttttttttttttighter"

Really? From THIS WEEK's TREGNY's report:

"Inventories, however, are more indicative of a still uncertain consumer sentiment. Vacancies are up 1.17% across Manhattan, creating some doubt as to the sustainability of the rent upticks seen recently.

Read more about Manhattan Rental Market Report | The Real Estate Group New York | TREGNY by www.tregny.com"

you mean the same report that says this?

There is good news for Manhattan’s rental market this month. Rents are beginning the slow climb upwards and have risen 1.10% overall since March and are actually up 0.27% vs. 2009 numbers. In addition, some landlords have already begun to pull incentives in preparation for the summer months. These are both positive indicators that the market is finally gaining strength.

You love to cherry pick data. A give a fuck what this report says. It fails to indicate vacancies by neighbhorhood. So good try. Get ready tp pay more in rent this year.

Read more about Manhattan Rental Market Report | The Real Estate Group New York | TREGNY by www.tregny.com

You are the one who spent post after post saying that yoy price changes did not matter, only inventory.

And as for price changes by neighborhood - there are plenty of types with increases in "fringe" areas, and decreases in "prime" areas, in your parlance.

"Where Prices Decreased

...Upper West Side— Non-doorman two-bedrooms (-6.64%)...

...Upper East Side— Doorman studios (-0.12%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-1.24%)...

...Chelsea— Non-doorman one-bedrooms (-3.88%), doorman two-bedrooms (-2.01%)

Gramercy Park— Non-doorman one-bedrooms (-5.06%), doorman one-bedrooms (-1.89%), doorman two-bedrooms (-7.87%)

Greenwich Village— Doorman studios (-1.21%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-2.86%)...

...SoHo— Non-doorman one-bedrooms (-1.83%)...

...TriBeCa— Non-doorman studios (-8.97%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-5.58%)...

Where Prices Increased

Harlem— Doorman one-bedrooms (7.37%), doorman two-bedrooms (3.21%)...

...Midtown West— Non-doorman studios (0.78%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (1.15%), doorman one-bedrooms (2.29%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (8.55%), doorman two-bedrooms (7.01%)

Midtown East— Doorman studios (1.58%), doorman one-bedrooms (2.82%)

Murray Hill— Non-doorman studios (5.93%), doorman one-bedrooms (3.88%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (6.89%), doorman two-bedrooms (3.33%)...

...East Village— Non-doorman studios (6.46%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (0.12%), doorman one-bedrooms (1.02%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (2.17%)...

...Lower East Side— Doorman studios (15.75%), doorman one-bedrooms (9.61%)...

...Financial District— Non-doorman studios (3.60%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (4.90%), doorman one-bedrooms (1.53%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (4.73%), doorman two-bedrooms (4.91%)

Battery Park City— Doorman studios (0.63%), doorman one-bedrooms (0.88%), doorman two-bedrooms (0.70%)..."

So the biggest yoy price decreases included certain categories in the UWS, Gramercy Park, and Tribeca - while the biggest INCREASES included certain categories in Harlem, Midtown West, and the LES. So its certainly not "prime" Manhattan leading the charge while the rest flounders. And inventory is up, despite your many posts saying its TIGHTER. And if tight inventory in prime Manhattan is what you mean, then why do some prices still show such steep declines in prime Mnhattan, but sharp increases in non-prime?

The simple answer is that Harlem, Mid-town west, and Fidi actually have MORE inventory - but just too much higher quality failed condos and overly luxurious rental buildings, which are driving up rents there. Harlem doorman bldgs have been up yoy in these surveys for a year straight for this reason.

you love to quote data. I sad there was no data on this report regarding VACANCY RATES by neighborhood. Bottom line, at renewal time or when looking for a new apartment, there will be less available inventory, rents will be higher, and concessions like "no fee" will be few and far between. i made about 200k just off of rental transactions in the last 12 months, so i am qualified to talk about the market. you can take the tregny report jason, and stick it up your fat number crunching ass.