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Johnny come lately.
Johnny don't come at all.
Gotta go clean up some sprint straddles. Some idiot got nervous and closed his $7 long put side. Fking idiot. At least it'll only cost me $10 to close that position as an equity trade and not $1k as an option trade. A silver lining in every shitstorm. But ya gotta have perspective, luck, brain, capital and a good family.
Oh jason.. have we offended each other yet? Let me start... jason.. you add zero insight into my complicated world. Like rice cooked too long. Just mushy and bland w/ zero flava.
Thanks Jason. It is now obvious to me why some names are blocked. Rightly so!
thanks! JOHNMILLER... you know prices of REAL ESTATE ON THE WATERFRONT INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST 20 YRS. LET'S GET A FUND TOGETHER AND BUY ALL THE WET BUILDINGS DOWNTOWN. MY GOD CAN YOU IMAGINE THE PRICE WHEN IT DRIES OUT?
SORRY FOR YELLING... BUY SOMETIMES I LIKE TO YELL AT RETARDED RE BORKERS!
wow, I haven't read this blog in a while and there are some people with a lot of free time on their hands. w 67th street, not only do you sound misogynistic but deeply angry and troubled as well. The thing you don't understand about the real estate market is that the Federal Reserve is actively trying to reinflate, to some degree, the real estate market through the Quantitative Easing program. why? Because fix the housing market and you fix the economy.
Real estate, like bonds, stocks and commodities, are an asset, and are looked at comparatively for anyone with disposable income, including banks who lend at one rate and invest at another. The Fed will continue making bonds so rich by comparison that banks are forced into making loans, because if banks arent making loans they are buying bonds on their balance sheets. The 10yr note is at 1.60 and isn't going anywhere soon (except a temp jump when the fiscal cliff gets resolved) and will remain low until we are under 7% on unemployment. And the 10yr is what sets mortgage rates. That will propel the housing market, and other people with larger amounts of disposable income wil invest in real estate because bonds are rich, stocks are nearly back to pre bust levels, and real estate still looks cheap by comparison. The people buying the $4mm and $7mm apartments here arent't like you. They get it.
>SORRY FOR YELLING... BUY SOMETIMES I LIKE TO YELL AT RETARDED RE BORKERS!
Sorry w67, but yelling isn't a trick that will change you from a one trick pony into a two trick pony.
how many tricks to your pony?
does saying the same thing 400 times make you a 400 trick pony? or is that only if you say it as 400 different people. lets see....you've flown attack jets in iraq, you're a housewife from jersey, you post with a name based on a Chinese curse.
>does saying the same thing 400 times make you a 400 trick pony?
No, because w67thstreet has told us about 400 times about his investment in Sprint. That counts as 1 trick.
>you've flown attack jets in iraq, you're a housewife from jersey, you post with a name based on a Chinese curse.
Nope, nope, nope
oh...that clears that up.
>oh...that clears that up.
for most, it does. for you - not so bright - I guess not.
what did you do with your pilot identity?
What about renting in1280? We are looking at 2 bed with side view of the park and owner is asking 5.7k, sounds a bit much for the area. What are people paying up there at the moment and is this a fair price?
Anybody has any feedback on this building? how is their prices?
@sj231, in my opinion if you are paying $5.7K for a two bed with a view of the park it is a pretty good deal. Look at the comparable buildings 1212 and 1214 (related rental) they are all asking for at least $1k more (in related's case higher).
The building is at the tip of central park which means you are also closer to the 2/3, B (cathedral parkway) and 6 (east side) trains (compared to 1212 or 1214).
I have been looking to buy in the building (or 1212) as we are starting a family - preferably a two/three bed. For 1.5million - The monthly mortgage and CC alone will cost more than $7K so definitely better to rent there than buy if you are only paying $5.7K.
@johnMiller, thank you for your advice....you say you've been looking to buy up there, what do you think about the area? is it sketchy? there isn't much to do up there, aside from glorious walks in the parks, and to get to anything is a schlep....worried about the crime at all? thanks
>@sj231, in my opinion if you are paying $5.7K for a two bed with a view of the park it is a pretty good deal. Look at the comparable buildings 1212 and 1214 (related rental) they are all asking for at least $1k more (in related's case higher).
That's not the real Park, that's the part of the Park where crackheads walk around that crappy "lake" ... great view.
Oh, and how are you going to get there?
sj231 if this is for a brand new full amenities building in the city I will expect to pay more than the asking. The owner clearly does not know that market pricing or perhaps he paid the apartment in cash and is happy with the cap rate from the asking rental.
@sj231, my wife and I have been checking out the area i.e. we have taken the train from our midtown west offices using the 2/3, and B trains just to see how long it takes (it is fast). The area is fast gentrifying. We also dined at Amor Cubana (it is more east supposedly sketchier) but were pleasantly surprised by the diversity of the crowd.
Our circumstances may be different from yours... we want to be closer to central park (or a big park) as we have two dogs. We are also avid joggers. As for grocery shopping, there is costco etc at 116 (I think) and FDR so it is very close.
I have also mapped out the crime-rates by looking at the statistics.. as it turned out Hell's Kitchen and Greenwich Village have higher violent crimes rates than where 1280/1212 is.
We are now thinking about the three bed/three bath at 1280 as we are growing our family. Unfortunately our budget will mean 3 bed/3 bath with no-park views. It is fine since we can still enjoy the view from the roof deck,and we can walk our dogs and run in the park without the hassle of getting there.
Good luck with your search!
good luck john. i hope the 2 dogs are trained rottweilers. Also, guys like you moving to harlem will make greenwich village safer
@JButton, very droll. just can't imagine it being as bad as you make it out....is it?
@JohnMiller, we're on the same page,we've got a dog and love the park.....we're new to the city though so I worry that we will feel a bit isolated...especially given how gorgeous the apartment is, why would you ever leave....
as for crime rates, i'm not so sure, yes you're definitely more likely to get mugged downtown, but i don't like the rape/shooting incident stats....east harlem leads the way....even though i appreciate this is very unlikely in any case....below is east harlem vs hells kitchen vs gvillage
@sj231, thanks for the latest statistics... . Yes, I agree the apartments are beautiful especially the park facing ones. We were concern about the crime rates and had done some research re: shooting incidents. The reports suggested that they tend to occur in the public housing projects (east side) so if we move there we will avoid that area for now, basically just sticking to the 2/3 and B trains area (I am probably a little paranoid in this regard).
We tend to take cabs home when we have late nights out so I don't expect that to change; not because of safety reasons but more due to the fact that the subway tends to run less frequently at night.
Here arethe "major crime" crime stats per 1,000 people for various areas:
CH - Precinct 28 (Morningside park to 5th, 110th to 125th - 19.9 per 1,000
CH - Precinct 32 (same-ish from 12th to the East River) - 15.5
EH - Precinct 23 (East of 5th, 96th to 116th) - 12.0
EH - Precinct 25 (East of 5th, 116th to the East River) - 19.0
BK - Precinct 77 - Prospect Heights - 14.2
BK - Precinct 78 - Park Slope - 13.8
BK - Precinct 84 - Brooklyn Heights - 20.5
For fun - #6, Greenwich Village - 24.6
#8 - Murry Hill/Gramercy - 22.8
#1 - Tribecca, BPC, and Fidi - 21.7
BTW, the vast majority of truly violent crime - like 90% - is between two people who know each other. So unless you get to know your crime-addled neighbors really well or join a Harlem gang, you won't know the difference.
And Sj231 - my stats are for a far longer time frame than JUST A WEEK. Way to cherry pick!
@jason10006 - they show YTD and previous year actually.....but, i do agree with your view, i think it's highly unlikely that one would be affected by crime there
guess my final reserve just boils down to remoteness of area and having to take cabs all the time. i'm used to walking everywhere and I imagine it would get pretty annoying after a few months.
can't make up my mind on this one
Look at Jason cherypicking the data and methodology. Only a San Franciscan could interpret crime data the way he does.
Crime rates are calculated per person living there not per person spending time there. So Greenwich village probably has about 3-4x people there at any point in time more than number of people actually living there. So crime rate per capita is exaggerated. As per Harlem, most people spending time there actually live there.
Yes, JButton. Also most people taking the subways and buses in Harlem live there.
Most people shopping there live there.
Most people going to the banks there live there.
More people from outside the neighborhood are visiting the restaurants there these days, including me.
I had to duck a shoot-out on the street a few years ago.
I didn't get shot and I didn't hang around waiting to see who did or if they lived there.
There are more restaurants there now.
@sj231, you can still be walking ... but just be walking further. I think if you live closer to mid-town you will find for the same price range, older apartments without any views. Depends on your objective really and what matters to you most.
We are deciding between 1212 and 1280, 1280 is closer to the 2/3 and B than 1212. I take the subway to and from work and will hate to spend too much time on commuting... . We have a one-bedroom currently - very conveniently located but I am tired of the view (mostly of other buildings) and that it is older, so the amenities are unimpressive (for example Gym in the basement).
Anyway, good luck with your search and hope you find something suitable.
Right but most violent crime is people who I know each other, not stranger on stranger.
JohnMiller, 1280 is NOT close to the B, its a long walk. 2,3 are closest, then 4,5,6. B is far. The blocks are long up there.
>Right but most violent crime is people who I know each other, not stranger on stranger.
And once you factor in that the people who know each other will be the same people who know each other independent of the location, then the variable at play is stranger on stranger which does deviate by location.
@jason 10006 The B train is a half mile walk further than 2/3 or B/C but it is a direct train from my office. I was saying that the subways being on central park north 1280 is closer to them than 1212.
To me it's to far. I lived up there.
just to be clear: the B train is TWICE as far from 1280 as the 6 is from 1212. The 2/3 is a regular block and 1/2 closer to 1280 than the 6 to 1212. The limited buses ie. M2 (right out the door of 1212 and 1280) go straigh down 5th ave from 1212 to 23rd st before 7:30 in less than 25 minutes.
We live in 1280, and are loving the apt and the building. The building is well-run and maintained, the gym and pool are great, neighbors are friendly. The park access is amazing, as are the views. It is very close to 2/3 trains and the M2 Limited bus stops right outside (have experimented with it--faster than a cab to midtown in AM). The down side as everyone has noted is that there are not a lot of amenities close by and everything (most things) to the east is grim. But the streets even near the projects are usually bustling with people and I have not felt unsafe. Bottom line, I lived in Carnegie Hill for many years, and am glad I made the move--I have way more space and gorgeous nice views that I could not have come close to affording in CH.
2 br 2 ba maintenenace is 1700 $ , RE tax in 9 years , after tax abatement 1800 $ , total maint for apt w/out view , average size will be almost 4000 $ mo,
WHATS GOOD ABOUT IT?
The tax abatement just started, why would you even worry about it unabating now?. Unlevered, this is a nice return. Especially for the D line above the 12th floor. those 2brs plus office are really 3brs because they have windows. 12D for example, ask is $1.575mm, could probably get it for $1.5. Maint and tax is $1900 per month, rent for $7k monthly rent. Net 61k a year in rent. Thats a baseline 4% ROI, and you have the upside to the real estate market (the Fed isn't stopping 'til economy gets better), plus seasonals that will drive sales especially into the summer when the nicest amenity is available (the rooftop pool).
Let the naysayers say what they want - it will help to keep prices modest until they realize what they missed out. Real estate investment is not for those without resources and foresight. Just think Willamsburg.
ha, looks like 12d just went into contract. The d line on the 12th floor (maybe 11th floor) and up is the same as the e line from the 10th floor down. 2br plus office which is convertible into a 3rd br because it has a window. its also south facing so you get great light and a bit of a park view. thats the best investment in the building IMO (unless you are going for unobstructed park views, those are fantastic but much higher ppsf...also will be a tremendous investment. they just broke ground at 110th and morningside for more condos, so anchors around the north side of the park are popping up, more amenities in the area will follow. 1280 could def use some more cafes and restaurants nearby, those will happen probably within a year. this building is going to be a great investment, its pretty undeniable.
jm75681, who are you?
"this building is going to be a great investment, it's pretty undeniable."
I repeat, who are you?
"The tax abatement just started, why would you even worry about it unabating now?"
Is this a joke? You're making an argument on investment return based off $1,900 per month Maint and tax, which will INCREASE annually, improved economy or not....really?
Who are you?
at $1500/sq foot you should be lucky to recoup your investment here. and that is if the blue sky scenario you presented comes true.
>> The tax abatement just started, why would you even worry about it unabating now?. Unlevered, this is a nice return. Especially for the D line above the 12th floor. those 2brs plus office are really 3brs because they have windows. 12D for example, ask is $1.575mm, could probably get it for $1.5. Maint and tax is $1900 per month, rent for $7k monthly rent. Net 61k a year in rent.
Let's compare fantasy against reality. You are making a claim of $7K for a $1.5M non-park-view unit (5.6% gross yield).
Meanwhile, 10B just came on the market asking $7K for the same-sized apt, except with a park view. Sold at $2.087M, making for a 4.0% yield. Will it rent at there? Maybe...
Perhaps we should look at 9B. Same floorplan, park view, sold for $1.935M. Came out with asking rent of $6000 but then dropped to $5500. Gross yield of 3.4%.
That's 40% lower than your claim of 5.6%. Do all owners look at some over-priced rent comp somewhere and indulge in such fantasies?
Where do you think cash is going to go this year? Ten year treasuries yielding less than 2%? Stocks almost back to all time highs (I still like stocks though). There's going to be a huge unwind out of the massive bond market into other asset classes and it's going to start happening this year. Good for real estate, good for stocks. Plus, currency wars will keep the dollar a safe haven for overseas investors who want to park cash in the US out of fears or devaluations in their own countries. The rental return is going to end up being a small part of the return. NYC10007, who am I? I'm the guy who has the cash to invest in places like this because I know how to invest. how's your portfolio?
Invest in CMBS then
I like cmbs as well but the cuspier tranches AJ3s AJ4s
Why is this building priced so high given that it is in East Harlem?
Does anyone have an opinion regarding the apartments lining central park north?
I posted my comments days ago but was just reflected today... would appreciate any comments on my last two questions.
Not sure why they are priced so high and the lack of sales can be attributed to the high prices..
There are empty lots and a jail to be sold by NYS on Central park North. Look ahead 5 years and they all will be filled with luxury condos. Get in now!
Matt, that's a good point. Some people are only comfortable with established neighborhoods, not emerging neighborhoods. If the price and amenities are good and you trust your foresight about the area's future potential, it may well be worth it.
"Why is this building priced so high given that it is in East Harlem"
Because Street Easy and the brokers are trying to convince you that its REALLy this new, made-up area called "Upper Carnegie Hill."
"Does anyone have an opinion regarding the apartments lining central park north?"
I think they have the same or greater chance of being "up and coming" over the next five-10 years. If you can find lower PSF prices along CPN versus CPE all else equal, there is really no qualitative difference. Both sides will put you near projects, though CPN will put you nearer to more already gentrifying areas and closer to more subway lines.
number one its 5th avenue and across the street from central park. Full luxury building with views. the only thing is that you walk to blocks toward 5thon the park and price are cut by half. They dont know weather they want to call it east harlem or upper carnegie hill. They need to make up their minds because what im seeing so far is they just want to call the areas with the projesct harlem but where its luxury building its Upper carnegie hill