Manhattan Median Sales Prices 2000-2010

Here's what I'm certain of:

Inventory is dropping and sales volume has been rising with the thermometer, counter to most, if not all, bear and bull predictions for the summer.

Why is it that the unsustainable continues to be sustained? I'm as amazed as anybody.

spin, as usual I agree with you - you have to think some of the inventory drop is seasonal (summertime) though. The continued activity is surprising, no doubt.

Thanks for posting bjw. Digs, can you look at the data from Q3 04 to Q1 05 and tell us what caused the spike in median prices? Does anyone have an idea what happened in that time frame? Here is a link from Q1 of 2005 that states inventory below 4000 does anyone remember the driving factor?

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1106708572lBxpP&Record=0

Buy now or be priced out forever!

Still waiting for 50% off Manhattan real estate!

That's awesome Steve - it's still funny the 3894759834th time you say it. Seriously though, that's the only contribution you have here? The shtick is tired man. I hope your stand-up is better than you blaring the same joke into a mike over and over for 30 mins.

stevehx is warning people not to make the same mistake he did, which is commendable, though I hear he has a nice rental in exciting midtown now so he appears to be doing well. I for one welcome his selfless reminders as I think it helps the kids learn from his mistake. A good egg, that Steve.

What would the OP say if this report was tailored to W'Burg? Ahem, untrue.

steve's mistake: renting during the biggest break in NY RE prices in over 20 years

happily i made the same mistake, having sold all NY RE in 2007

my other mistake was to have put proceeds of that sale in tax-free munis and treasuries which have appreciated in value and produced income since then

and of course, in cash outlay terms, renting has been way cheaper than carrying my condo was along the way

what mistakes have you made?

JM, I believe you have bought recently, probably at a good discount to peak--if you have any appreciation to date, it would be highly unlikely to exceed transaction costs were you to sell--so youre breakeven, hoping the market goes up

bjw, i believe you own a penthouse in williamsburg, purchased at or near the peak--if ive got it right, you are well underwater looking for good appreciation of the williamsburg market to bail you out, which you apparently think will happen--pls correct if the circumstances are different

i think the right side of the W is coming with price breaks for NY RE to around 50% off peak--i see very little chance of significant price appreciation from here over the next 5-10 years--and i rent very cheaply when weighed again the comparative opportunity and cash outlay cost of owning

in this case i like making steve's mistakes--it's been nice

Wbottom,

The PH maybe incorrect, but the overall, story is true. Peak time mortgage holder who's underwater and looking for an appreciation. Wbottom, be ready for the attacks from "him". LMAO.

So widebottom, you had one of them shiny new tiki bar condos? And your 5% down and flippy proceeds are now in munis and t bills because you can't meet minimum dp req's anymore? Are you in midtown too, or closer to the tunnel?

lic?

Wbottom, I did buy in Williamsburg, but that's about the only thing you've got right there (despite what the mutombo troll above says). If you must know the facts, I bought towards the end of '08 and managed to get a favorable deal from a developer who was already in the black. On top of this, I put a significant amount down, so my mortgage is actually rather small, so I'm not sure where you're imagining this underwater business. That said, none of this has anything to do with my original post. The point is, median prices are down, but not as much as they need to be to get to real affordability for the average Manhattan purchase. Why make it personal? I only dinged Steve because his post here adds nothing. His decision to rent seems to have worked out for him, but it has nothing to do with the thread.

ass is pretty damn trim thanks--market all fat tho--likely to trim down a bit

the W refers to the as of yet un-bottomed NY RE market

actually bought a big new constr condo mostly cash in 2005 for a near 2X, thanks
pitched it partly for personal reasons, partly based on judgement, and mostly based on luck

dp? ill likely buy all cash next purchase--nest's emptying--dont need the size i bot in 05 and rent now

mostly ive been dumb and lucky--now im careful

what about you spinny?? tell me about your mistakes

How are you digging Williamsburg bj? My wife and I were there a while ago and loved it. Our initial impression was that it had a real and friendly neighborhood feel to the place. Frankly if we had ventured out there when we were looking last year we may have been neighbors.

you know what? it aint just the market--the whole damned economy's got a fat ass--it will trim down, whether by crash diet, or slow, thousand cut appetite adjustment

ill tell you one thing, williamsburg is gonna ramp--there's no supply now, and no room to build anything else--a no-brainer--a real buy now or be priced out forever situation

"most bears were in the 10-15 or 15-20% range, a handful in the 20%s... and nobody claimed 50%."

(excerpt from: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21406-manhattan-2nd-quarters-prices-up-yoy)

Add Wbottom to the growing list of 50% supporters. How many people need to claim 50% before "nobody claimed 50%" is proven false?

my claim is no a simple as you'd like:

it will remain way cheaper to rent comparable space in NY for 5-10 years, during which time the mkt has potential to trade down to levels as much as 50% off peak prices of late 2007--and from here, 20-25% off peak, you will certainly see no return over that 5-10 year run.

if i'm anywhere within my wide predictive range, JM, you are the mistaken one

spin, I've been really happy here. The crowds in the street can feel a bit young at times, but those of us who have bought are by and large 30s-late 40s. I actually find the neighborhood as convenient if not more so than anywhere I lived in Manhattan. It's not for everyone, as I always say (what is?), but it's been a great neighborhood for me.

"ill tell you one thing, williamsburg is gonna ramp--there's no supply now, and no room to build anything else--a no-brainer--a real buy now or be priced out forever situation"

Cool, so now that you've completely gotten us off-track, do you mind explaining how the heck rents have gone up so much in the neighborhood in the past few years? And why, despite all this supply (which I'm sure you have a firm handle on, right?), things are still selling? You're definitely not one of those "surething" prognosticators, huh?

And for the record, I'm not predicting or even really hoping for appreciation (my home is not an investment) - much as you seem to want me to say that.

"and from here, 20-25% off peak"

Well, except, read the chart. According to the data (I know, data are crazy!), we're down 12.3% from peak.

bj, must be some good shit wafted into your penthouse if you think a B'burg purchase from 08 has appreciated at all, let alone nuff to exceed trans costs if suddenly, like, you need to sell

apologies for misuse of "underwater"--point was as above--right here and now, you cant get out what you got in--kinda like market to market--youre sitting on a loss

and like i said supply/damand over yonder B'burg is working for you so goooooood

"it will remain way cheaper to rent comparable space in NY for 5-10 years, during which time the mkt has potential to trade down to levels as much as 50% off peak prices of late 2007"

If you feel this way you should definitely rent. However, "has potential" is an interesting choice of words. The market "has potential" to move in an infinite number of ways. It is difficult to convince people of your position when you are flying at 100,000 feet.

"Well, except, read the chart. According to the data (I know, data are crazy!), we're down 12.3% from peak."

Is 12.3% a crash?

Wbottom, you're not really a close reader, are you? Who said anything about appreciation? And I have no need or intention of selling. Regardless, your point is the equivalent of mocking someone who bought a stock for the long term, only to see it drop 10% in a week. Market timing is great when you can do it, but as you alluded to before, it's mostly dumb luck.

"and like i said supply/damand over yonder B'burg is working for you so goooooood"
And like I said, what do you know about it? Do you have any actual data?

Do we need to find JuiceMan's quote where he says that Manhattan prices won't fall even 10%, when they've already fallen 25%?

We're halfway there, Juicy - still way, way more expensive to buy than to rent. You seem to price real estate the same way you price pork bellies, but it doesn't work that way. It's a long cycle - it will take years.

In fact, it's been surprisingly fast thus far.

Juice, I'd say it is, just not the monumental one some have predicted. I'd agree there's still a good amount of downside risk, but this is more about wading through all the bs to get to what actually has happened so far. Wbottom sounds to me like someone who's letting wishful thinking get in the way of facts.

the more desperate wannabee owners get(and they are getting desperate) the larger the % drops they throw out from their asses. 30% 40% 50% no 70%!!! it's a combination of frustration and immaturity. I foresee a nice 7-10% appreciation rate over the next 5-10 years until prices get ahead of themselves again and we see another 10% price correction before we start the cycle all over again. A cycle since they've been trading caves.

"Me buy give 20 rock" next year "30 rock" next year "40 rock" next year "50 rock" next year "45 rock" next year "42 rock" next year "48 rock" next year "52 rock" next year "55 rock w tiger tooth" and so on and so on and so on.....now flash forward just add 4 zeros to those rocks

W, I still imagine you as being someone I would not enjoy sitting beside on an airplane, even if you were skinny. Sorry. Is there a diet for pompousness?

I've been around a while, most know my story and I don't feel the urge to explain it to you. Again, sorry if I'm sounding overly standoffish. It's just my mood, nothing's going right today.

this is not a homemaker's board--it's a board about NY real estate where vauation and investment are hotly debated--your comment:"And for the record, I'm not predicting or even really hoping for appreciation (my home is not an investment)" seems a bit disconnected with what goes on here, and from the crap you spew about the decisions of others

fact: mark to market your re can't be sold (net to you) for what you have in it--mark to market, here and now, you are are sitting on a loss

steve and i are not sitting on such losses--feels good to be mistaken thanks

my predictions include a pretty wide range of outcomes but are very specific on one front: If you have bought NYRE any time since late 07 that RE will prove over 5-10 years to have been better rented than bought. If you get another good dip in values to new lows from peak you will have hope for a decent return...none here

back to all my mistakes

steve, how come we are only down 12.3% when you said 50%? Remember when you said Manhattan would suffer the same fate as Miami?

Not a homemakers board? Didn't you just give us girls a recipe for mediocre returns on investment?

"and from the crap you spew about the decisions of others"

Such as? You clearly have no idea what you're talking about anymore. I simply don't judge others' decisions on here. How is not viewing owner-occupied real estate as an investment at odds with "what goes on here"? Plenty of other regular posters agree (I believe steve and Juice, much as they disagree on things, would agree on this point). Your fact is nice but ultimately useless in real terms. What's your point? That I shouldn't have bought? Pretty arrogant and ignorant at the same time (hint: not a good combo). I'm glad renting's worked out for you (really), but to project that that's the only wise decision for everyone else out there on every single real estate transaction since late 07...

That did not change much during the housing bust. The median home price in Manhattan fell about 20% from its peak, according to Greg Heym, a housing market economist who calculates market statistics for two of New York's biggest brokers. And that is a lot less than bubble markets such as Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas, where prices were slashed by half or more.

"And we've already gotten close to 10% of that back," Heym said.

from CNNMoney July 1st 2010

so median is now down about 10% from peak soon to be 10% over peak....

bjw2103,

Now your home is not an investment. This gets better hahahahaha.

Here is what I can say:

1. Underinflated Inventory 2005-2008 - HUGE issue. Inventory must be underinflated by thousands and thousands of listings reflected by the new development boom we had...especially the years 2006 and 2007, when the bulk of pre-marketing occurred. This is a huge problem. This is also why you see right here on streeteasy, a bunch of listings back then saying things like "Listed in SE, ALREADY IN CONTRACT"...Well, it was never ACTIVE, rather, it was unreleased and marketed with no record of it ever being in an ACTIVE state prior to contract signing. So, I would not follow inventory levels too closely from 2005-2007. It starts to de-poison itself in early 2008, we found.

2. The Spike - hard to say...looks like a 25% move. Perhaps a distribution distortion in Q1 2005, to more higher end units? Not sure..Perhaps that is really the first lagging glimpse of the credit boom? Not sure. To find out I would need to see the ACRIS sales recorded in this period and see the distribution curve and do more digging. I dont have that specific data that JM used for this chart. I can use my ACRIS data, but we dont have time now to mess around with these types of things so close to launch.

"Now your home is not an investment. This gets better hahahahaha."

As bjw said, your home is not an investment. This is the single most important thing to understand about owner occupied real estate.

digs, thanks for the post, I am looking forward to the seeing the fruits of your labor.

JuiceMan,

No one is talking to you bjw2103, does not need a spokesperson.

Juice, don't take the troll bait. It's a nasty one.

bjw2103,

Stay classy.

"how come we are only down 12.3% when you said 50%?"

According to all estimates, Juicy, we're down about 25%.

"Remember when you said Manhattan would suffer the same fate as Miami?"

For different reasons. In Miami it started years before it did here. It's not over till it's over. I've always said it would take years.

mid AUG juice..this time its firm date.

And years it will take.

"The Spike - hard to say...looks like a 25% move. Perhaps a distribution distortion in Q1 2005, to more higher end units?"

digs, that was my guess as well, but not sure either. I'd say that would go hand in hand with the credit boom as well. Really looking forward to your new site as well - I suspect you'll get a loyal base from streeteasy for all your contributions here over the past few years.

"According to all estimates, Juicy, we're down about 25%."

At one time maybe steve but it seems the market has rebounded a bit. I'm just looking at the chart in the OP, data can be tricky you know. So why is it exactly that the market isn't down 50%?

"According to all estimates, Juicy, we're down about 25%."

Steve, read the actual thread here. According to the chart digs posted, we're 12.3% off peak. At the lowest point since peak, we were 18.5% off.

hope so bjw2103!! I put everything I got into this, and its been 3 years in works, 1 yr in development. I never thought the data cleansing would be this tedious. But I guess, its a good thing that its done with now. Its all about the data. You guys will LOVE it. I promise you.

That's right, Juicy - real estate only ever goes up in value.

JuiceMan's question: "So why is it exactly that the market isn't down 50%?"

steve's answer: "That's right, Juicy - real estate only ever goes up in value."

Conclusion?

It has to be a little frustrating when you've laid out your position time and again, arrogant in its defense, urged on by pack mentality, only to face the prospect that the prediction may very well be wrong, and far less dour than expected. We are beginning to see the first signs of that retreat, and it is to push the timeline of the prediction out indefinitely, therefore never needing to concede defeat. We will all die and this board will be viewed as a real time graphic display inserted directly into the optic nerves of our offspring as they continue to wait for that magical 50% down.

JuiceMan's question: "So why is it exactly that the market isn't down 50%?"

Steve's answer: "I've always said it would take years."

JuiceMan's question: "So why is it exactly that the market isn't down 50%?"

Steve's answer: "I've always said it would take years."

JuiceMan's question: "So why is it exactly that the market isn't down 50%?"

Steve's answer: "I've always said it would take years."

JuiceMan's question: "So why is it exactly that the market isn't down 50%?"
Steve's answer: "I've always said it would take years."

JuiceMan's question: "So why is it exactly that the market isn't down 50%?"

Steve's answer: "I've always said it would take years."

Need I go on?

Time has shown that steve was dead wrong. Shocking.

oh no..now commentary from the guy with a huge loss in LIC..you guys are such experts..

talk is so cheap..actions speak...you guys are long and wrong, and want to crticize steve and others for renting during the biggest break in ny re prices in 20+ years

mark to market, you guys are carying assets at a loss, those who have rented since you bought have simply done better than you have financially

re the future, we shall see
mark to market,today, you are clearly the mistaken ones

my belief is that you will see no return over the next 10 years
i will buy again if there is another wave down in prices, or wait out the zero return era

love this bitter renting shit

"Time has shown that steve was dead wrong."

Apparently, not even the clocks are working in Long Island City.

Wbottom, don't lump everyone in the same boat here. I've never criticized Steve for his decision to rent. Again, if you took the time to read the actual posts here, you'll see that. I'm glad renting seems to have worked out for him. I'll agree the "bitter renter" stuff is ridiculous, but no more so than the stuff you seem to be waging against anyone who's bought in the last 3 years.

jelly bottom - some criticize Steve for his tireless hold on a long overblown bear mating call. I don't care if you're a renter, I care if you are delusional enough to have convinced yourself that anyone who didn't follow you to the Frigidaire farm is a loser.

have you ever allowed yourself to consider what happens to you if you're wrong vs. what happens to steve if he's wrong? perhaps at 3 AM?

Brilliant question columbiacounty. Another score for you!
Especially clever was the 3 AM angle.

ooooo cc you're dark, in a ha ha hotel sorta way. What do you do out there anyway besides sit on your porch and fire your bb gun at loud annoying birds and people who walk on your grass?

so...if you don't like the message, shoot the messenger. that has worked quite well over the years.

perhaps, however, you may want to address my question.

what would happen if steve were right vs. if you've right?

50% down means nothing to me and if it happens I will congratulate every one who held out and benefitted, provided we are all still alive.

So you're independently wealthy? In which case, it's all a game to you anyway.

Oddly enough, the few people I know who are actually that well off care quite a bit about their money.

Obviously, you are far more enlightened.

And you assume that a 50% drop in prices would endanger our lives? The rest of the world would be cheering.

Lighten up Francis. Go shoot a robin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrllCZw8jiM

Wow...seems to have hit a nerve, eh?

Yay columbiacounty, another score for you! Good job columbiacounty!

no cc- think the point is that there will not be a 50% drop in the foreseeable future. but then again, you are a cantankerous old codger (or crazy old coot) so you are hoping for armageddon in new york.

ooh, rough, I guess you didn't get hit by a bus like columbiacounty wanted to happen.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21339

your turn columbiacounty, don't disappoint us, let's see you score!

How could you or anyone else know this? That's the whole point. The economic environment is unprecedented. The US is running a 1.5 trillion dollar deficit. We are hopelessly mired in two endless wars. Every state is our of money. We can't even agree on the actual number of unemployed people but it is a tragic number. Congress seems to have decided to end unemployment benefits which means that millions of people are running out of money each week.

Go ahead, blame ten messenger, that will make this all go away.

Ooh, such sadness.

No score for you columbiacounty.

Frowny face.

But penthouse lady, strut your stuff. Make yourself feel better. More wine for sure.

Sady face

or is saddy with two ds?

:(

"More wine for sure."

What is wrong with that?

RIGHT CC "Every state is OUR of money" Guess YOU've been drinking too much, while you're on your porch shooting BB's at the rabbits.

That's the sum total of your thoughts? Do you think that states and municipalities are facing unprecedented budget shortfalls or is this just the raving of a nut job?

you have added to my thoughts quite well, cc

and we wish no armageddon on anyone; we merely try to anticipate potential economic outcomes and behave accordingly

my normative view: a "de-fatting" of our credit-driven consumption-driven economy would be healthy, long-term--painful for many who are unprepared--and the de=fatting may happen when orchestrated or not

i am now going to start another thread

Compare the chart in TOP to Miller's inflation adjusted median rent chart for Manhattan for the past decade. Rents are down 25% adjusted for inflation. Home prices have doubled. Proof that the price/rent ratio is totally out of whack.

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2010/07/08/rental_listing_discounts_fall_off_the_balcony.php

"have you ever allowed yourself to consider what happens to you if you're wrong vs. what happens to steve if he's wrong?"

Wrong about what exactly?

The extent of future price declines.

wbottom- you are talking nonsense and everyone sees it. Keep trying.

columbiacounty, that was an incomplete thought.

No score for you.

"The extent of future price declines."

Yeah, I've never really said prices won't fall. If you actually read the thread, I said "there's still a good amount of downside risk." But hey, let's entertain the notion that prices drop 50%. Would I be thrilled and running up and down the streets kissing babies? Obviously not. But it wouldn't really change much for me. I have no intention of selling, and I certainly wouldn't rush to put my place on the market at such a low. It's my home. At the same time, let's say prices double. Would I be high-fiving strangers? Neither. Why sell it? I live there. So much as you seem to enjoy the idea of owners waking up in a cold sweat over housing prices, I'm gonna have to burst your bubble (pun semi-intended). Investors and flippers maybe, but I'm not one to play that game.

spin said it much more eloquently in wbottom's thread, fwiw.

Well, believe it or not, I had intended my question to be directed to someone else. You've already made it abundantly clear that you don't care what happens to prices since you intend to stay in your place forever. I wish you the best of luck with that. And I get absolutely no enjoyment from the potential misfortune of others. Frankly I shudder at the thought of what may happen.

Best to check back in ten years or so and see if in fact life proceeds as you order it.

Fair enough, but it wasn't clear who it was directed towards. And I don't "order" life around (whatever that means), but I think you're overstating your case a bit. We're not completely at the mercy of the economy and the housing market. Some things are in our control and some aren't, but we can position ourselves to mitigate the damage. You've chosen renting as one way to do that, but it's not the only way.

you don't know what i mean yet you somehow know that you don't do it? logic would say that it has to be one or the other not both.

of course, we're not at the mercy of the housing market or the economy unless we act in ways that severely limit our options. thats my whole point.

clearly you haven't yet reached the level of experience where you realize that everything that is truly important is beyond our control but that is a subject for another time and place.

Good one, call his experience in to play relative to your wisdom! Score another one for columbiacounty.

"And I get absolutely no enjoyment from the potential misfortune of others. "

"and here i was hoping that you had an unfortunate accident with the second avenue bus."

> Is 12.3% a crash?

No, the part where we went down over 20% (in this chart) is, making Juice, by definition, completely off in his predictions.... and painfully so.

"Add Wbottom to the growing list of 50% supporters. How many people need to claim 50% before "nobody claimed 50%" is proven false? "

Oh Juice, you and the strawmen again. You have to cut off my sentences to hide your mistakes. Wow. Sad.

I CLEARLY noted the point in time on the board. at that point, folks didn't claim 50%.

Then we started crashing. Some bulls extended their drop predictions after that sure. We crashed, they were right, and they went for bigger things. And, contrary to your claim, it was *not* "all". It was a handful.

Its also then that you changed your story as well. And you thought nobody would notice.
Which you hillariously tried to note as your original prediction.

Except your original prediction was that even 10% was "not gonna happen".

Whooops.

> steve and i are not sitting on such losses--feels good to be mistaken thanks

Yes, it absolutely does.

"you don't know what i mean yet you somehow know that you don't do it?"

I enjoy how you nitpick here but in general have a hell of a time reading what people actually say before typing out some of your holier-than-thou responses. I think I get what your phrase meant; it was just an awkward sentence to me.

"of course, we're not at the mercy of the housing market or the economy unless we act in ways that severely limit our options."

It's not just about having options. If all you want to collect are options, you're not going to have a lot, are you? You sound extremely risk-averse to me, but maybe a bit unaware that there is risk in everything. If that works for you, great; I happen to think my strategy works for me. What are you getting out of this? Do you want everyone to subscribe to your thinking?

"I CLEARLY noted the point in time on the board. at that point, folks didn't claim 50%."

You're just wrong: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/2135-am-i-insane

bjw is right. Plenty of bears on this board, and most of the more active ones, were predicting 50-70% declines.

I would prefer that we don't see a repeat of what happened in 2009.

LIC, I didn't quite say that - some were predicting 50% or more (there was one "AT LEAST 70%" in there), but not all. And look, it still might happen. I would be surprised at this point though. I would also be surprised to see any significant appreciation in the near term either though. And I still see some people calling for that.