Don't you get the feeling that this fall ..

Is there any content to this thread-starting post?

That is one rose-colored crystal ball!!

W67...I'm not sure that's the valuable content SE was talking about.

Hooga Hooga Chakka!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x20v9F-sWHQ

i say 10% unemployment, a very jittery buyer base and a tight credit market beat your crystal ball. it will take more than dow 11k to approach that type of velocity in the re markets.

'a tight credit market beat your crystal ball'
----Crystal blue ball

DOW crosses 11k sept. 1 and drops to 9k oct. 1...i doubt people will be running out to buy because of the market.

Buy now and be priced in forever.

It does not matter where the dow goes. At best, it's a confidence factor. What will happen in the fall will be subject to supply and demand. I know about the supply, real, imaginary and, shadow. Tell me about the demand. Where is that coming from? Pent up demand??? That group has already cashed out. Richy-rich euro apartment hounds??? They will be howling at the moon in Europe with there shrinky-dink euros. How about all those new jobs created??? No, they not in the game yet. Folks are leaving the city by the truck load as the optimism of two kids in private school dims. Nope, the only folks left to buy are the hard core and they are going to wait it out...you will see!

"C'mon leftover bears you have to admit your anxiety is approaching very uncomfortable levels."

Hey, steveF. I don't actually feel any anxiety on the issue.

You know what I saw in the past day that I thought "boy, this has got to make some people anxious". It's that petrfitz, one of the biggest bulls on the thread (don't get me wrong, you're up there too), declared that he's sold ALL his NYC RE investments.

What do you make of that?

I know what might be coming from various posters, but can the Peanut gallery please let the man speak...

I'm a bear and I don't feel any anxiety on the issue either. We are heading for a double dip. You did see the GDP on Friday, right? The momentum is fading as businesses have refilled the pipeline. Who is going to bail out the economy? The US consumer? Sorry, that is not going to happen particuarly when the stimulus has stopped and the state and Feds are raising taxes. I don't know how you can say prices are going to move significantly higher with that as a backdrop.

I just took another dump. A twofer day!

But 'me thinkz the big pile are the underwater owners in NYC.

w67thstreet
1 minute ago
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I just took another dump. A twofer day!
But 'me thinkz the big pile are the underwater owners in NYC.

Very helpful

Wall street is adding jobs; that's the important thing. When the market crashed back in 1990,Wall Street was downzizing.

What will happen on Wall Street is still a mystery. The jobs being added are a dead cat bounce. Until we know what happens with FInREg we don't know how many jobs there will be in IB nor how much legal support will be needed. And we don't know how much the jobs will be paying.

hadnt noticed petrfitz's having liquidated--is this true? id love to hear from him on this

no anxiety in this non-bull--chances of a re-bubble from here in NY, that i would regret not being on board for, seem very remote

renting (cheap as it is) and liquid, safe assets feel anything but anxiety-producing to me
i may miss a little return at worst, but i am very relaxed, steve

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704271804575405390530098742.html?mod=WSJ_NY_RealEstate_LEFTTopStories

Looks like Steve F may be on to something

I pinged it to the top, Wbottom.

Jobs stalled. Euro crashing. City services cut. Exodus? Where's the money coming from for this big condo explosion predicted?

It's doubled from a year earlier, a year ago we were using words like "Armageddon trade." I am all for transparency and telling it like it is in the moment, but we have to be careful how we interpret these WSJ RE blogs. I had a very senor broker at a big firm send me a blog with a very optimistic title to bolster his case regarding a counter offer(just last week.) I actually read the blog, which contained one drop of good news against an avalanche of dire news and stats. I asked him if he only read the headline and first paragraph...crickets.

Keith Burkhardt
http://theburkhardtgroup.com/agents_details.php?agent_ID=7619

KeithB. bad news sells. The media will push bad news for as long as they can until they reluctantly have to put up the truth. We are close to that happening.

So what the media is doing is suppressing what is really happening in the economy? Are they doing this because good news on the economy would help the Democrats in an important election that is just around the corner? Oh, wait...

No. They aren't suppressing the good news and "the truth" isn't about to spring out on us in the fall.

We are not falling off a cliff, and we are not headed for some new shining economy. We will continue to fight the headwinds of over-leveraging, poor governmental finances, suppressed economic demand and bureaucratic meddling. To some degree we will probably succeed. Unfortunately not enough to put back to work all those who lost jobs. Will it be enough to rekindle the NYC RE market? Possibly Wall Street will go back to the god old days, but that is less likely than not.

AvUWS...let's get one thing straight: Wall Street Never Loses.

As for the media, they control all perception but eventually humans tire of hearing the same thing over and over(bad news) and they desensitize to it(aka don't listen anymore which is not good for media people's pockets!). So to sell more news, the media caters to what the public want to hear and what's that you say? good news or at least no more bad news. IMO we are getting there soon.

So steveF, what do you make of petrfitz's liquidation?

Wall Street never loses. I agree.

It is the relative nature of their win that matters. The question always remains how many of them will there be and will they be super uber duper wealthy or merely super duper wealthy. This matters because there was no restriction previously on how much money could be sucked by them out of the economy.

Re: Media - so you are saying that the Media, which you contended makes money only when they sell bad news, will suddenly in the fall start to sell good news because... they want to sell more media? How will fall 2010 differ from every other moment in history when "if it bleeds it leads"?

Sorry, your arguments still aren't convincing. What next? Will the National Enquirer start to report on the growing families of happily married celebs because they are losing readers to TMZ.com?

> C'mon leftover bears you have to admit your anxiety is approaching very uncomfortable levels.

And this coming from the guy crying about other people's posting just... uh.. YESTERDAY.

Really now? You want *others* banned?

lol

> Is there any content to this thread-starting post?

No, but no surprise there.

"You know what I saw in the past day that I thought "boy, this has got to make some people anxious". It's that petrfitz, one of the biggest bulls on the thread (don't get me wrong, you're up there too), declared that he's sold ALL his NYC RE investments.

What do you make of that?"

Wow, where? Thats hillarious. I missed it!

"http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704271804575405390530098742.html?mod=WSJ_NY_RealEstate_LEFTTopStories

Looks like Steve F may be on to something"

Looks like two people didn't get all the info. The same analysis showed condos down 16% off peak.

ionada...looks petrfitz won the game and stopped playing. Good for him.

AvUWS...the media, like always, will be forced to spew good news by the lack of desensitized readership and the fact that the stock market is moving higher. As long as the DOW flounders/slides they can promote their "uncertainty?! what if?!" model. But with higher stock prices/dividend growth and job growth, they have to switch gears.

http://tinyurl.com/28pfl4

"AvUWS...the media, like always, will be forced to spew good news by the lack of desensitized readership and the fact that the stock market is moving higher."

I am seriously curious. Can you find a single source that explains this theory of Media behaviour? That the media will continue to sell bad news until the readership becomes desensitized to the bad news, at which point they print good news? Do they continue on the good news reporting until the readership is desensitized to good news and then switch to bad news?

I will ask correlated questions: How do they know when the desensitized nature has been reached? And how do you know that that will happen in the coming fall?

Coupled with your description a few posts ago that they "..they control all perception.." I think we have just explained the cyclical nature of economies. It isn't that they have natural business cycles, just that the media must go through cycles of reporting things as being good or bad in order for their businesses to survive and thrive.

SWE, here's petrfitz's liquidation thread:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21987-adios-im-out

"ionada...looks petrfitz won the game and stopped playing. Good for him."

Yes, good for him. However, does the fact that he "stopped playing" concern you? Why or why not?

"Yes, good for him. However, does the fact that he "stopped playing" concern you? Why or why not?"

I don't know his situation at all. He could be 60 yo and decided that enough is enough. I have enough money to live comfortably off the interest so I'm done. it's all about winning and not playing anymore otherwise you get sucked in to no life at all and money is your identity

How many yachts can you ski behind inonada, how much is enough?

Well, I don't water ski, so 0 is the answer for me. On fitz, I think he's in his 40's, and I think he still has plenty of other things he invests in. So I don't think he's out of investing altogether, just out of NYC RE.

"I have enough money to live comfortably off the interest so I'm done."

Is the "I" in the above sentence you, or petrfitz talking hypothetically? If you, what are you done with?

that's petriz talking but once i get there I'm out too....

prefitz "stopped playing" after he bet big and the market dropped 20%. Thats not taking your winnings, that's giving up. If you sell with the market down this much, clearly you don't think there is much potential to make money there.

SWE why dont you stop talking shit about things you dont know about? I am sick and tired of watching you spit out complete and utter shit on these boards like they are facts when they are in fact complete made up lies.

When I was in Nam I used to smack around idiots like you before I had a beer for breakfast.

It is clear that you have no idea how to make money in real estate. If you did you would know that you don't paddle against the current, you paddle with it. And if you get good at it, you throw away the oars.

I've got a great friend at the yacht club, he was in nam. 101st airborne... smoked weed all day, cheered for the other side to win, met his first black friend there... yeah lots of shits and giggles... how many of us vietcong babies did you kill and how many 14yo girls did you rape? Nice, smacking around an unarmed 14yo boy bf putting a chandelier shot ... all bf bkfast... canadian bacon and eggs?

WOW tough guy... ya think you still got it, punk?

What the fuck did you just say to me? ... You ever worn your country's uniform?"

You heard the question! You just don't like the answer.

Have you ever served your country?' The answer is, 'No, you have not ... You don't know what the hell you are talking about!'"

you want the garlic sauce on the side?

who'd ya smack around? Our side or their side?

Have you ever killed another man? Huh?

Have you ever taken another man's life and then cashed the check your country gave you for doing it? No, you have not, so shut the fuck up....

I served to put myself through school...

I wanted to smack around idiots but, they got rules.

I was never in Nam but, I've eaten in quite a few south east Asian restaurants. Love that lemon-grass!

A uniformed waiter in Vietnam?
Must be a fancy joint.

no shit falco...

Yeah, I hatez me the bravado of a guy with a gun...... Krzystoff, my nam friend doesn't speak of his experience as a way to puff himself up, won't tell me if he killed anyone... always just says "war sucks."

And I've got another friend, who thanks his lucky stars every day he never had to kill anyone during vietnam... see i'm friends with them, but the first instance w/ you, you would be "you vietnamese?, I used to smack around idiots like you before I had a beer for breakfast."

See we wouldn't get along, and i doubt my two friends would wanna associate w/ you.

Falco. dude ain't that old? WTF? Or you're in great shape....

I said I served...not in the armed forces...in restaurants, as a waiter.

The things I've seen........
The things I've done.......
amazing that I can sleep at all...

You're killing me falco... :)

WTF does Vietnam have to do with NYC RE bubble imploding? Oh, yeah you were threatening physical violence on a long time poster about NYC RE... .okay I get the relevance, pls continue...

Too many spring rolls... just walk it off man.... just walk it off...

Tuxedo was the uniform.
The Old Homestead....the battle ground.
Lost a lot of good men over there.
Served a lot of good steaks.

I was a captain in the US Army and served as a helicopter pilot for the Rangers. When my tour of duty was over I was offered a position of professor at West Point...but I turned it down to pursue other interests..

No shit, funny enough never been... always meant to. Used to work in the kitchen.... thought it'd be so cool to wear a tux... :)

Man it must've been a cool time, with all the drugs and dirt in that locale back in the day... used to roller skate at the Roxy's back in the days.... holy crap... a long time ago... w/ cool and the gang

In a restuarant.. :)

Alright, let's start that again. Krisoff, if you got an opinion about nyc re continue.

My cousin went to the naval academy. My nanny's boyfriend is an artillery leader in Afghan right now...

well gotta go get some spring rolls w/ the wife... later boys...

My thirsty wants whisky; my hungry needs beans

I always wondered how they got to Madison Square Garden for the games ... I never saw them on the subway. So there's a helipad on the roof?

Ah, a new way for threads to degenerate to nothingness.

FWIW, of all the combat vets I ever knew, none ever talked like this. Not the guys who served in Vietnam (including one who was in the 101st), not the ones who served in Iraq (don't know any Afghan vets), and not the guys who served in combat in foreign armies. To a man any one who had been in real combat didn't talk trash about having been there and done that.

I might be wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was just someone trying to play a persona he doesn't know well at all.

AvUWS,
agreed. this person is full of donkey poo. we spend a lot of time in dc and i've met many iraq and afganistan vets. combat veterans don't talk like that, they don't talk about it at all. their country needed them and they answered the call, they did what they did and that's that.

alanhart, snort

This cannot be a vietnam vet. Know too many of them and knew too many of them. Not even a good actor. Know a lot of them also. This is just a random grifter troll. But, Falco...... Funniest stuff of the year. Hard to do in the heat of the battle - especially with w67 throwing grenades all around you. But you pulled if off. My hero.

Since thread's already been hijacked...why not.

---

Dude, I'm so with you, when they remake Red Dawn, you'll know who the true heros are. Keyboard commandos... man your blogs.

http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/delusions-grandeur-militia-video-war

w67thstreet
about 8 weeks ago
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I just took a dump. Yes now there is some content on this thread! Go metamucil!

w67thstreet
about 8 weeks ago
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I just took a dump. Yes now there is some content on this thread! Go metamucil!

w67thstreet
about 8 weeks ago
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I just took a dump. Yes now there is some content on this thread! Go metamucil!

w67thstreet
about 8 weeks ago
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I just took a dump. Yes now there is some content on this thread! Go metamucil!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/22013