134 E 67th St, 10/11C

Duplex classic 10, estate condition, around 3900sf.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/130-134-east-67th-street-apartments
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/316196-coop-130-east-67th-street-lenox-hill-new-york

06/27/2008 Listed by Stribling at $7,995,000.
08/29/2008 Price decreased by 13% to $6,995,000.
11/07/2008 Price decreased by 16% to $5,900,000.
02/02/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $4,900,000.
04/29/2009 Listing is no longer available.
05/19/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/23/2009 Listing sold.
07/23/2009 Sale recorded for $3,500,000.

28.6% off final ask, and less than 1k psf.

Also note that a smaller renovated corner 8 in the same building sold for $5,750,000 on 07/19/2010.

seg made a great point on the previous page:

"... a buyer could compare his potential purchase with some of the units posted here. If they don't like the comparison, they ma[y] think twice. From this perspective, the thread may actually have a chilling effect on poor purchases..."

That is SO true. I've seen this happen repeatedly. The most recent instance was in one of the buildings mentioned in this thread. A client was interested in a listing that I consider very comparable to the 2009 "best buy" cited earlier. (There haven't been any comparable sales in the building since). As we were putting together a bid, I said, "I think this apartment will appraise about 20% below ask, because there's no way to ignore that ugly 2009 comp, and there's no solid data to show that the value has risen significantly in the past year. I think it's up about 10%, but an appraiser probably won't see it that way because there aren't enough closed sales to prove it." That anchored the client's perception of value at the 2009 level. So we bid it that way, and didn't even get a counter - just a poison-pen e-mail from the listing agent. His view was that I wasn't doing my job.

To some extent, he was right. It's one thing to inform a client about comps. It's another thing to create an unrealistic expectation that a current listing will sell at the same level as a comparable prior sale. Right now, it's pretty hard to get Spring 2009 pricing on the Upper West Side. That price level may very well return, but it hasn't happened yet.

That was really my original point in starting this thread: RIGHT NOW, many buyers are looking back a year and saying, "Gee, I should have bought that one." Of course, there's a fallacy built into that regret. If those remorseful non-buyers had been more aggressive a year ago, there would have been more competitive bidding and, hence, higher prices. To win, it would have been necessary to outbid the actual winners, and there's no way to know how much more money that would have required.

"You come on se to say 'hey man weren't some of these the 'greatest' bargains ever?!"

NOT what was said. Give it a rest.

w67th, you didn't respond when I asked you a few days ago, so I'll ask again - where do you see an extra 30k (the number you had given) in inventory coming from?

Pls tell 'me what does 'best buys from the crash' mean? Bjw.

I'll take a stab at this.

His term, "Best buys from the crash":

"Best buy" means a purchase price that would likely not be attainable on a comparable unit in today's market (August 2010) . This makes it a "best buy" on relative basis -- relative to alternatives at that time, and relative to present opportunities. There is no embedded opinion here on absolute valuation or future market moves.

"From the crash" basically meant contract dates ranging from mid-08 to mid-09 (I think)

Now, how about W67's outrageously misquoted line: "Greatest bargains ever"

"Bargain" - Implies an absolute bargain that will only go up in value.
"Greatest ever" - Of all time -- Better deal than the 90's

The two statements do not mean the same thing. At all.

Not sure how you can extrapolate that way. You're saying because of a snapshot view of the market in which you saw 100 foreclosures and an inventory of 10k units, that means the ratio holds true at all times? Show me the correlation. Same with the open houses. I don't care what brokers say one way or the other. You claim to be the voice of reason, or some such thing, but based on this kind of stuff it's hard to see you as any more credible than they are.

'best buys from the crash' is not exactly the same thing as 'greatest bargains ever' now is it?

w67th, not here to "choose sides." Not interested in that game at all. Discussing real estate in level-headed terms is good stuff - you should try it sometime. The movement's been interesting, but I'm not exactly rushing out to buy any property right now. I'll be curious to see in 3 years whether or not you'll be the biggest "buy now!" shill on this board. Because that's kind of what you've been setting up.

Thanks for pointing out that w81 is a broker and all his nefarious motivations for about the 15th time on this thread. Very helpful.

LOL re. your use of "greatest bargains" again...

What I can never fathom is the hostility to information. As someone pointed out, we already have comps threads in which probably 90% of the sales show a downward trend. If there now happens to be some information that takes a new slant on things and seems to defy conventional wisdom, most would welcome this with interest.

And what is this notion of "choose a side"...? One might think it's more rational and intelligent to refine your view as circumstances change. Rather than start with a preconceived "theory" and ram it down everyone's throat.

W67: I think you would have a stronger gripe if I had started a thread on the best bargains currently available. Unfortunately, there aren't any - not in my neighborhood. Inventory is thin and weak, and sellers' expectations have risen on the strength of a few impressive trades (e.g. the recent 3BR sales at 885 WEA).

Transactions are still happening at what I would call 2009-ish prices (see the latest trade at 140 RSD, where a Crayola-Factory paint job may have cost the owners $100K at resale time). But its pretty easy for sellers - and brokers pitching a listing - to define market pricing by the strong sales. That makes for a wider bid-ask spread, a slowdown in activity and, over time, lower prices, I think. I just don't expect it to happen quickly, and for many buyers, the waitinw is the hardest part.

One other thing, W67: I didn't return from an extended absence to start this thread. I've been posting steadily on the IYCDMMWC, Price-Chopper and Lowball threads. That activity doesn't fit at all with your view of my agenda. Anyway, I think/hope you're kidding around, and it's all in good fun.

"And seriously, if you don't understand as w81 obviously does not, that bubbles tend to pop with trades above and below the downward trend line then I can't help you guys."

Actually I'm pretty sure everyone does get this. Not every trade falls smack on the trend line.

Curious here -- just picking the most prevalent type of sale on this thread, W81 and other have posted a slew of C6's that traded below $1.5 "from the crash". W67: are you seeing comparable C6's selling below $1.5 lately? If so, where?

excellent points, apt23.
I am loving this thread.

If w67th stuck to "macro responses," I'd have no issue with him. But I get sick of his petulant, juvenile personal attacks on posters who add value to this board. I don't find him cute or funny anymore.

apt23, who exactly on this thread is calling a bottom here? I don't think anyone here has anything but a long term view, so I'm confused as to how you reached your conclusions. That doesn't negate an ability to appreciate West81st's thread here - ultimately, when you buy a home, you buy one home, and those listings (the "micro" view, as you call it) are your bread and butter. There's no reason why you can't pay attention to both sides of the coin at the same time.

I like his juvenile petulance, best not to take it personally.

apt23, by his own admission, those extrapolations are hokey. And if he's not including shadow inventory in his added 30k of inventory, then where is all that stuff coming from? And I disagree that it isn't being tracked - I've occasionally updated a pretty thorough list of shadow inventory in my neighborhood for the past 18 months or so. I can dig up the thread if you'd like. On top of this, I haven't seen a recent uptick in inventory. Read Noah's post on this:
http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/08/a_seasonally_slow_manhattan_su.html

No reason to take it personally - but I can see how it's extremely off-putting for newbie posters and the like. I'd prefer to see more than just us regulars discussing this stuff - we repeat ourselves far too much in the process.

"Minor in stats and get an A. Double major in Econ and finance from an ivy, get honors. Or listen to a tranny comps guy who got his 2 week broker professional license."

How rude!

w67th is a one trick pony and has a little wee wee. Now lets get back to the subject of the thread.

So it appears, no surprise, that w67 has launched a vitriolic attack on W81st, one of the more pleasant, professional posters on this board. At this point, with all the Hitler, whore, tranny, etc. references which permeate his comments, I can only come up with one reason why SE allows him to participate - that this board provides an outlet for him to vent his frustrations, and they rightly fear for his family should he no longer have this outlet. B/C no balanced person should be getting this upset over someone posting on apartments that appear to have sold for attractive prices 1yr ago.

Anyway, to get this thread somewhat back on track, here's one that only closed a month ago that may indicate there's still room to hit bottom in the downtown market. Love the location. Sold for $770k (~960/sqft). Not a huge bargain, but considerably lower than most prices I've seen in the immediate area in the last 4 years.

Link (sorry): http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/479715-condo-165-elizabeth-street-nolita-new-york

wc_nyc: Rude, yes, but mostly an inside joke. W67 knows that I have an Ivy degree and a reasonably respectable day job, and that I obtained a real estate license to join Keith Burkhardt in testing an alternative business model for representing buyers. He also knows that I'm not transgendered, except in the virtual sense of having dropped a few vague hints that I was female to obscure my identity so I could continue writing anonymous open house reports.

"I don't find him cute or funny anymore"

That's b/c you aren't picturing him feverishly typing away as a troubled 8 y.o boy in an aquaman t-shirt. it helps.

W81, still, I have to give you credit for being so nice about it even after all his comments. Miss your open house reports!

"He also knows that I'm not transgendered..."

this thread is hilarious.

I would love to hear NYC10023's input on this thread - UWS classic 6's and 7's - she kmows the buildings, the apartments, everything!!

Real estate cycles are by their very nature long.

We're here looking at pricing minute by minute, day by day, week by week. This whole thing could take five or more years to unwind. I personally don't think so, but could be. Along the way people will continue to buy and sell all the way down the curve. In the end it will unwind, because economic fundamentals don't sustain current price levels.

I like both w81st and w67thstreet and hope they both continue to post.

Just one comment: most of the units reported here as great deals are coops, where financing might be difficult and the board even more so. Plus, they often do not let you rent, so that's another deterrent, especially for foreigners. (combined with the fact that the board knows everything about you, and the median age of the tenants is 75 :-) - I don't know why anybody would want to live in a coop, but that's an opinion)

I have yet to find great deals in condos in the UES (where I am looking)- yes, there was a decline in 2009, but not that marked.

What do you all think?

Thanks

ph41: nyc10023 e-mailed me a few favorites:

1) 300WEA, 4A, 5A (go Tina Fey). 3A went into K quickly at last ask over 5 in the last month.
2) 50 RSD 4CD - huge 11-room combo, unrenovated but original features in beautiful shape
3) 258RSD - top floor combo
4) 317W77 - 6 above-ground floors, park block TH, close under 4m
5) that 320WEA Kagan estate
6) that other WEA 6 that closed under 1m [probably 522 WEA]
7) 277WEA, C7 under 2m (6C?)
8) 311W75, large Gothic TH, over 7000sqft, complete gut job, closed at 4.5m

mfornier: I don't think condos have fared much better than coops, and tightened underwriting standards probably affect condos more profoundly. New construction has certainly taken its lumps. Older condos are a mixed bag. The ones hit hardest have been those with low owner-occupancy, where it's not possible to get a conforming loan - even with 20 or 30% down.

BTW, Bela and 10023 are probably right about 277 WEA #6C. I left it out because I don't have a good feel for what it would fetch today and also because I don't like the idea of putting major money into renovating an apartment that will always be saddled with a view of Schwab House; but it certainly sold far below its peak value.

My wife and I still cry over http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/441675-coop-200-central-park-south-central-park-south-new-york.Must have been an inside deal. Broker sold it in a couple of days. Unbelievable buy.

NYC10023 - Hope you're not boycotting SE for sone reason. Your input, reasoned, knowledgeable, calm and on topic, is always appreciated.

West81st - Thanks for the thread and the insight. Really good stuff. W67thstreet you come across as bitter and sad. Just relax a bit and stop trying to dominate every thread with your views on where the RE market is headed. We get it, the world is ending.

West 81st I miss your open house reports. I think you are the most knowledgeble west sider on this board and the one whose posts always provide info unlike just rhetoric and usual bla bla bla of some so predictable others. THANK YOU West 81st.

Bela: My pleasure. Looking forward to hitting more open houses in the fall.

Here's one from the East Side: 1150 Park #3A. This distinctively renovated five looks like a nice buy in hindsight. Debuted with Sothebys in 2007 at $2.75MM; sold by Corcoran for $1.449 in 2009. Although the opening ask was nutty, this one looks like a bargain based on subsequent events: #11A sold for $2.475 (just $225K below its 2007 basis); and #4A, in estate condition, went to contract quite quickly asking $1.75MM.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/392485-coop-1150-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/477649-coop-1150-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/505959-coop-1150-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

a bargain about to become a bigger bargain is no bargain at all.

"w81 is pointing to a dead cat bounce and saying, the "crash is over!""

w67th, where the h are you getting that from? This is what he said: "I personally think a double-dip is the most likely scenario." Please, more facts, less made up bs and ranting.

the language choices are definitely interesting....

w67th, I scored 99th percentile on the GRE verbal back in the day (and yes, my math was "kick azz" as well, so no need to talk about reading comprehension here. You're parsing out a sentence that's far more innocuous than you make it out to be, while conveniently ignoring the sentence I put up there for, not to mention putting in quotation marks something that he didn't even say. That's ballsy. And yes those are ugly comps for sellers. What's your point? Every trade has at least two sides to it. Would it kill you to have some balanced perspective? No one here is saying what you seem to think they are.

They sat me in a special class. I road to school in a 'little' yellow bus and yes...wore a hockey helmet. I'd love to brag to all of you about my percentiles but, most of the time I received colors instead of grades. Given that...this thread does invite the idea that this 'phase' (being a crash) has now concluded and we now pick over the bones of the last 18 months and assess the damage.
The argument is...is the reduction of price over?
I think it's more like the day after Katrina. A few fly bys over the region led to the assessment that the damage was reasonable. Then the levis broke and the whole thing turned to gravy (the lumpy kind).
I think we are at the 'Those levis aren't looking too good' phase.

"Dolly Lens is on drugs"

What'choo talk'bout Willis?

"Seems to me that you could also find cheaper rental deals during the low period of early 2009, than you can today. "

Rents in my building are lower now than they were then. They actually went down the most in late 2009, then up a bit, then back down just a little higher than late 2009... although will be interesting when the winter months hit, perhaps we hit them again.

"Seems to me that you could also find cheaper rental deals during the low period of early 2009, than you can today. "

Rents in my building are lower now than they were then. They actually went down the most in late 2009, then up a bit, then back down just a little higher than late 2009... although will be interesting when the winter months hit, perhaps we hit them again.

I can't believe we neglected our own Urbandigs in this discussion:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/384328-coop-152-east-94th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

Not the greatest apartment, but ~$550/SF was fairly stunning. I wonder if Noah has a sense of how much this one might have bounced in 2010. #9J upstairs is looking for $900/SF; seems like a stretch.

Here's another epic price-chopper that looks pretty good in hindsight, at least for now.
221 West 82nd Street #14C:
01/04/2008 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,767,000.
01/22/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,682,000.
02/25/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,595,000.
03/04/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $1,495,000.
03/31/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,425,000.
04/04/2008 Listing is no longer available.
04/11/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
04/24/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,375,000.
05/13/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,325,000.
08/08/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/02/2008 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
09/02/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $1,295,000.
10/08/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,239,500.
10/14/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $1,195,000.
12/15/2008 Delisted temporarily.
02/03/2009 Re-listed by Prudential Elliman.
02/03/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $995,000.
02/19/2009 Listing is no longer available.
04/09/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/07/2009 Sale recorded for $947,500.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/164090-coop-221-west-82nd-street-upper-west-side-new-york
#5C sold in May 2010 for $1.35MM. Much better condition, but nothing really special and minus the views. #11C, which needs significant work, was just listed for $1.2MM.

West81stg - but 5rC and 11C - both sponsor- no board approval - units, which seem to go over market.

West 81st, 14C at 221 West 82 needed extensive work as well. The toilet in the kitchen did not qualify as a second bathroom. Maintenance then was around 2300. It was tempting. You've already seen 11C?
Aside, 340 West 86 #4B seemed very appealing at 1.595. If I'm not mistaken, it's a flip attempt that has been reduced once to just under 2M........ the ones I let get away.

Ph41, 221 West 82 is a Condop and never requires board approval.

You're a smart guy, w67th street, what do you think price-to-rent ratios should be in the current interest rate (etc.) environment?

Anyone else?

Maybe 221 West 82nd #14C doesn't fit the heading "Ones that got away", which implies regret at not having taken the plunge. At $1.7MM, that apartment was the bubble incarnate. At $950K, the value seems pretty good - although not quite as good as 522 WEA #6A, another example of a buyer trading maintenance and condition against $/SF.

I'll also toss in a couple of Honorable Mentions at the Turin:

333 Central Park West #33
11/06/2007 Listed in StreetEasy, already in contract, by Corcoran at $4,475,000.
01/18/2008 Price decreased by 11% to $3,995,000.
04/07/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $3,700,000.
06/29/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $3,595,000.
09/10/2008 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $3,499,000.
10/02/2008 Price decreased by 9% to $3,199,000.
10/17/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $2,999,000.
11/17/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $2,799,000.
12/08/2008 Listing entered contract.
03/02/2009 Sale recorded for $2,490,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348024-coop-333-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

333 Central Park West #56
06/19/2008 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $5,200,000.
07/01/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $4,875,000.
09/09/2008 Price decreased by 14% to $4,200,000.
12/08/2008 Price decreased by 17% to $3,495,000.
02/27/2009 Price decreased by 15% to $2,975,000.
04/14/2009 Delisted temporarily.
06/04/2009 Price decreased by 16% to $2,495,000.
08/12/2009 Listing entered contract.
10/14/2009 Sale recorded for $2,350,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/305017-coop-333-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york

Aside from the eye-popping price cuts, these sales make the "Best Buy" list (with a few obvious disclaimers) because they mark such a huge drop from the peak comp (http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/96565-coop-333-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york) and because a subsequent sale of a sixth-floor wreck suggests some degree of recovery.

245 West 99th Street (Ariel West) #7C: Not my cup of tea, but the subsequent sale of #9C for $1.395MM makes the buyer of this distressed resale look pretty astute.
01/10/2008 Previous Sale recorded for $1,586,433.
05/03/2008 Listed by CBHK at $1,620,000.
06/13/2008 Price decreased by 2% to $1,595,000.
09/09/2008 Price decreased by 1% to $1,575,000.
10/01/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $1,500,000.
10/30/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $1,450,000.
11/26/2008 Listing entered contract.
01/09/2009 Sale recorded for $1,200,000
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/229434-condo-245-west-99th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

588 West End Avenue #14A: The resale of this modest, front-facing 2BR/1.5BA seemed unremarkable until the nearly identical #7A traded for $1.04MM five months later.
06/14/2004 Previous Sale recorded for $805,100.
04/08/2009 Previously Listed by Halstead Property at $1,099,000.
08/08/2009 Delisted temporarily by Halstead Property.
10/07/2009 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $995,000.
01/22/2010 Listing entered contract.
03/29/2010 Sale recorded for $950,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/469543-coop-588-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
This segment, which surged close to peak levels in the spring, seems to have cooled again. So #14A's "Best Buy" label may prove fleeting.

440 West End Avenue #10E: When #12E closed in mid-2010 for $969K, #10E earned a place on the "Best Buys" list.
09/17/2008 Listed by Halstead Property at $1,295,000.
11/26/2008 Price decreased by 19% to $1,049,000.
01/11/2009 Listing is no longer available.
01/23/2009 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
02/04/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $995,000.
02/28/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $899,000.
04/04/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/27/2009 Sale recorded for $775,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349483-coop-440-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
To my eye, better light and views gave #10E an edge over #7E, which sold around the same time for $800K, 19.2% below its 2006 basis.

137 Riverside Drive #11DE: Rambling Clarendon combination with river views from the living room. Ambitious asking price on the original 2008 listing cost the owners dearly.
04/17/2008 Listed by Corcoran at $3,895,000.
05/28/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $3,650,000.
07/28/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $3,495,000.
10/16/2008 Delisted temporarily.
03/19/2009 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $2,895,000.
04/23/2009 Listing entered contract.
06/22/2009 Sale recorded for $2,460,000.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/392909-coop-137-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

The apartment had flaws, but the recent purchase of #2D and #2E for combination, for a total of $2.45MM, make #11DE look like a bargain.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/464823-coop-137-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/516098-coop-137-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

I was revisiting this thread and picked a random place. Any thoughts on the following "best buy" wreck that closed in 2009 for $760 a sq ft:

West81st: "215 W 98th Street #11B - Big Gramont wreck with limited views but a lot of detail and potential.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/237206-215-w-98-st-upper-west-side-new-york"

And the gut-renovated floor below that close late 2010 for $1010:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/499252-coop-215-west-98th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

A difference of $250 a sq ft. I'd put the lost carry during renovation at $50-ish, and the renovation here seems $200-ish (though I'm no expert on this). To me, the 2009 vs 2010 sales look very comparable.

West81st (or others), curious to hear what you think on this one. A "best buy" of 2010 as well, or maybe the 2009 wasn't all that special?

inonada: #11B closed for $1.45MM, or $690/SF. $1.595MM ($760/SF) was just the final price on the listing.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/800792.
At $1.595MM, it would not have made my list.

My bad: didn't realize SE missed on lining up the listing with the sale.

Nevertheless, what price do you put on the reno & associated carry costs? Adjusted, does the 2010 sale look much different than the 2009 sale plus a market-typical 5% bump between the two time points?

inonada: I think you could recreate #10B in #11B for under $500K. IIRC, #10B hadn't undergone a particularly radical renovation; the floorplan hardly changed at all, and there was no central air. #11B showed horribly, and the bathrooms were a mess, but most of the apartment was salvageable.

Thanks, w81.

This one http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/389531-condo-372-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york was after the crash but was a true steal that we were outbid on. Great Central Park views.

5/6C at 812 Park is noted in this thread as a "best buy from the crash". It sold for $5M in 4/09 (arguably the bottom of the market).

It is back on the market asking $9.95M (after a 905K price reduction)

Any chance is sells for anything near ask?

"bjw: even though you don't accept w67's exact extrapolation, you have to give some credence to an uptick in inventory. banks are holding onto tons of bad paper and they let out the cheaper stuff first. plus higher priced homes (NYC) tend to lag in foreclosures -- for many reasons. So the coop argument for lack of foreclosures that is constantly posted on SE will give way if unemployment stays around 10% as is expected."

apt23, what's your take on this 15 months later?

>>Any chance is sells for anything near ask?<<

Not unless they did a super-high end reno complete with hand-fresco'd ceilings and solid gold toidies.

cc, don't know. If the timing is that far off, it's not a particularly prescient/helpful call. I see absolutely no sign of the inventory explosion that was supposed to have happened by now. Are there reasons for concern? Sure. But I don't see how anyone can time this nearly as well as some seem to think. Do you?

cc, what do you mean by happy ending? There will always be those happy with the outcome and those kicking themselves, no matter how it plays out. The scenario I see is a pretty boring one - pretty much the steady course we've seen since '09. No real appreciation, but no second leg down either. That goes hand in hand with the flatlined inventory. Do you see all this shadow inventory and foreclosure stuff that others had been touting?

cc, that seems fair to me, though I do think that "living reasonably well" is a qualifier that can have very different definitions depending on who you ask.

How have you benefited from the ongoing distortion?

Remember when the stock market just sort of went sideways for a real long time?
Manhattan RE will probably just go sideways for a real long time. The difference is that things you put in RE, things you eat in RE, stuff you wear, the heating and cooling of your RE, this will all change in cost.
Once a million dollars was a huge amount of money when you could buy a 2 bedroom in town for 65K.
Whe a half gallon of milk(non-organic) is $27 dollars, that over priced apartment might no seem so expensive.

not seem so expensive