Of course, the Miami and NYC markets are very different. If you had driven down the streets of Miami in 2006-2007 you would have realized that you could empty half of South America into the buildings being constructed and not come close to filling them. NY never had an inventory problem like that. But NY is beginning to show some similarities with the troubled bubble markets in another way -- over... [more]
Of course, the Miami and NYC markets are very different. If you had driven down the streets of Miami in 2006-2007 you would have realized that you could empty half of South America into the buildings being constructed and not come close to filling them. NY never had an inventory problem like that.
But NY is beginning to show some similarities with the troubled bubble markets in another way -- over leveraged developers defaulting and their troubled lenders forced to sell in bulk which depressed prices city-wide. Here are a few examples of this happening in NY:
1. Anglo Irish Bank auctioning off Rector Square in Battery Park. They expect to get top dollar but is that possible with the existing tenants in a law suit that will likely be extended to the buyer? Anglo Irish also took possession of The Apthorp, The bank is in extremis which makes one wonder if they will also auction off The Apthorp.
2. IStar Financial is very close to bankruptcy. Fitch downgraded them again today. They took possession of One Madison. They also have loans extended to Trump Soho. Will bulk sales happen at One Madison? If so, expect prices at the Setai Fifth Avenue to plummet.
3. Stuy Town. Wow what a mess. I think most on this board concur that when that huge mass of housing comes on the market, it will depress prices in the area.
Here are some others that are not (publicly) in trouble but are worth monitoring:
1. Extell. The Aldyn has not started marketing apts. The Rushmore has dropped prices again and just lost another round in the courts. They have extensive holdings in Manhattan
2. The Laureate. Why haven't they begun pre-marketing? Could it be they are waiting for the mass of luxury rental apts that recently came on the market in the vicinity to be absorbed?
3. The Setai. Not doing well downtown. Crazy prices and few sales midtown.
4. All of the financial district. Will bulk sales happen there in the near future?
In addition to the possibility of depressed prices thru bulk sales, the above constitutes a big chunk of shadow inventory. If they are forced to come on the market en masse due to bankruptcy, etc that would be a lot of apts to absorb. And that is what happened in the other bubble cities.
Anyone else know of developers/buildings that should be monitored for trouble signs?
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Response by hoodia
about 15 years ago
Posts: 154
Member since: Jun 2009
" If you had driven down the streets of Miami in 2006-2007 you would have realized that you could empty half of South America into the buildings being constructed and not come close to filling them"
1. Rector Square in Battery Park - mostly completely occupied. No need for any South Americans.
3. Stuy Town - almost completely occupied. Unlikely to be able to fit the population of the Falkland Islands in the vacant apartments.
4. All of the financial district - in which buildings?
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Response by w67thstreet
about 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
When excited the hood pulls back.
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Response by apt23
about 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Rector: "The bank is expected to soon set the date for the foreclosure auction for all the unsold units of beleaguered developer Yair Levy's failed condo conversion, Rector Square in Battery Park City.
The 232 units, along with the parking garage and commercial space in the residential tower, located at 225 Rector Pl., will be auctioned off in a bulk sale on Nov. 17,"
There are only 45 apts sold and those owners are suing for a failed conversion and other issues.
stuy town -- outcome still unknown but one scenario is to sell as co-ops
not talking about rentals but sales.
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Response by w67thstreet
about 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Apt23. Hoodia = hfs= shrimpie. Just a hunch :)
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Response by hoodia
about 15 years ago
Posts: 154
Member since: Jun 2009
Lots of buildings have sold as co-ops in the past many decades. But if there were tenants occupying them and no forced eviction, then there isn't much NEW vacant inventory at all.
And if there are 232 apartments at Rector and plus Setai plus One Madison plus Aldyn, how does that compare to the amount of inventory that was put on the market in years past?
Manhattan is nothing like Miami. In fact, in New York, we have some of the lowest percentage of homeowners in default on their mortgages.
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Response by apt23
about 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Thanks for the heads up W67. Save me some breath.
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Response by hoodia
about 15 years ago
Posts: 154
Member since: Jun 2009
I'm equal to what?
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Response by wife67street
about 15 years ago
Posts: 13
Member since: Sep 2010
You are "equal to" me. w67thstreet once called "my" boss's office. I forget which broker I was. He also thought I was a British woman:
w67thstreet http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14482 about 12 months ago
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wanderer, I'd take this fight w/o $... some things in life, you do for the sheer thrill
ericho, I can do the tights but not the make-up, u b joker. I'd as soon take an apology from Shrimpie as a member of the 3rd Reich.
Shrimpie, the only thing that caught my eye was your spelling of "behaviour".. I know the NYTimes social section reading lookers on like you, that think penmanship and grammar (esp. the king's english) somehow "makes" them superior. It's not your grammar policing that pisses me off as so much your "own" superiority complex, especially when you are a RE broker.
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Response by apt23
about 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Here is another building to put on the watch list. 20 Pine was once the subject of a bulk sale rumor but it never came to pass. It is still in distress and this ruling will not help -- another ILSA court case.
What about the azure? Bulk sale...and a land lease?
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Response by lowery
about 15 years ago
Posts: 1415
Member since: Mar 2008
It took a while between Black Monday and the bottom of the last real estate crash, but when people ridicule the "this time is different" false confidence, they also tend to engage in a symmetrically complementary false confidence: "history always repeats itself." They usually leave out the rest of the sentence, which perhaps ought to read, "in a different way each time." We are three years past the beginning of the Great Recession and may or may not be between dips. Wall Street had its most recent breakdown two full years ago. There has been a shift down a half-notch in the real estate market in this area, more so in some segments than others. Whether we get to that ugly place we reached in the last crash is utterly mysterious. Rent/buy ratios, interest rates, employment, etc., etc. This is not Miami.
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Response by falcogold1
about 15 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
A shread of valuable information may have arose!
Dwayne,where in New york city could I get that good cuban sandwich?
El presidente in Washington heights. More Dom republic, but still damn good. Oh and a nice cafe con leche.
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Response by dump67street
about 15 years ago
Posts: 64
Member since: Oct 2010
W67thstreet will be in lawsuits with all of you tenants in Washington Heights. He graduated from labor at the age of 7 to clothing from Salvation Army to skipping rent to lawsuits with tenants.
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Response by columbiacounty
about 15 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
truth
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Response by kharby2
about 15 years ago
Posts: 279
Member since: Oct 2009
Thanks apt23 for opening this discussion and contributing this good info.
Stuy town is offering zip cars and iPads to brokers to get units rented, which certainly suggests they might have a vacancy or two:
Another reason NYC is not Miami is that we have a ton of co-ops. Co-ops saved NYC from a much bigger housing debacle and co-op owners are going to be sitting pretty when the dust settles, a few years down the road---that's my prediction. We'll see.
Karla Harby, Charles Rutenberg Realty
kharby@crrnyc.com
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Response by lowery
about 15 years ago
Posts: 1415
Member since: Mar 2008
Miami RE developers never even claimed they were marketing primary residences. Second homes, third homes, fourth homes, safe haven investments for Latin Americans, retirement homes....... Other big difference: If every apartment in StuyTown were vacant, there are people to fill them up with. The question is at what price. They would not need to rent 2-bedrooms for $800 a month and accept Section 8 vouchers. But somewhere in between that one extreme hypothetical and the asking rents at the peak of the market, there is a way to fill every single apartment in StuyTown. New York City does not have enough housing. In the vast multi-tiered food chain, there are plenty of price points at which every vacancy could be absorbed. Of course, the sky is still falling.
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Response by cccharley
about 15 years ago
Posts: 903
Member since: Sep 2008
THere are tons of vacancies here at pcvst. Not sure what they are doing but it looks like they are only putting very expensive apts on the market to rent and there are many unrenovated ones sitting there. THey have raised rents substantially over the past 6 months. It's pretty insane. The offices always look empty. I don't think they want to rent any of them - honestly. We'll see what happens at the auction today.
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Response by DaBulls
about 15 years ago
Posts: 261
Member since: Jun 2008
I think that by and large, Miami is a vacation and leisure destination, and very different from the New York metropolitan area, home to so many families. Certainly speculation in the Miami market led to many difficulties there. In contrast, the opportunity today in the New York market is to invest where you live and to prepay your future living expenses when alternatives for your cash are poor (such as risky stocks, low returning bonds, and dangerously high-priced gold) and your opportunities to borrow are at record low interest rates.
With a sensible downpayment, prudent mortgage borrowing, and a modest reflection on your family's living needs for some years to come, your family can own and be secure today and in the future.
'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
" If you had driven down the streets of Miami in 2006-2007 you would have realized that you could empty half of South America into the buildings being constructed and not come close to filling them"
1. Rector Square in Battery Park - mostly completely occupied. No need for any South Americans.
3. Stuy Town - almost completely occupied. Unlikely to be able to fit the population of the Falkland Islands in the vacant apartments.
4. All of the financial district - in which buildings?
When excited the hood pulls back.
Rector: "The bank is expected to soon set the date for the foreclosure auction for all the unsold units of beleaguered developer Yair Levy's failed condo conversion, Rector Square in Battery Park City.
The 232 units, along with the parking garage and commercial space in the residential tower, located at 225 Rector Pl., will be auctioned off in a bulk sale on Nov. 17,"
There are only 45 apts sold and those owners are suing for a failed conversion and other issues.
stuy town -- outcome still unknown but one scenario is to sell as co-ops
not talking about rentals but sales.
Apt23. Hoodia = hfs= shrimpie. Just a hunch :)
Lots of buildings have sold as co-ops in the past many decades. But if there were tenants occupying them and no forced eviction, then there isn't much NEW vacant inventory at all.
And if there are 232 apartments at Rector and plus Setai plus One Madison plus Aldyn, how does that compare to the amount of inventory that was put on the market in years past?
Manhattan is nothing like Miami. In fact, in New York, we have some of the lowest percentage of homeowners in default on their mortgages.
Thanks for the heads up W67. Save me some breath.
I'm equal to what?
You are "equal to" me. w67thstreet once called "my" boss's office. I forget which broker I was. He also thought I was a British woman:
w67thstreet http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14482
about 12 months ago
ignore this person
report abuse
wanderer, I'd take this fight w/o $... some things in life, you do for the sheer thrill
ericho, I can do the tights but not the make-up, u b joker. I'd as soon take an apology from Shrimpie as a member of the 3rd Reich.
Shrimpie, the only thing that caught my eye was your spelling of "behaviour".. I know the NYTimes social section reading lookers on like you, that think penmanship and grammar (esp. the king's english) somehow "makes" them superior. It's not your grammar policing that pisses me off as so much your "own" superiority complex, especially when you are a RE broker.
Here is another building to put on the watch list. 20 Pine was once the subject of a bulk sale rumor but it never came to pass. It is still in distress and this ruling will not help -- another ILSA court case.
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/judge-rules-against-sponsors-in-20-pine-street-ilsa-cases-with-nu-chan-and-pei-ching-chu
"3. Stuy Town - almost completely occupied."
No, its not.
They have several buildings worth of vacancies.
"Manhattan is nothing like Miami."
I'll say. You can't get a good Cuban sandwich in New York!
BTW, Dwayne made many a Cuban sandwich in Miami.
With me as the croquette :/
Great, Dwayne/Hugh/Admiral is back
w67thstreet
about 8 weeks ago
I just took a dump. Yes now there is some content on this thread! Go metamucil!
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/22013-dont-you-get-the-feeling-that-this-fall-
What about the azure? Bulk sale...and a land lease?
It took a while between Black Monday and the bottom of the last real estate crash, but when people ridicule the "this time is different" false confidence, they also tend to engage in a symmetrically complementary false confidence: "history always repeats itself." They usually leave out the rest of the sentence, which perhaps ought to read, "in a different way each time." We are three years past the beginning of the Great Recession and may or may not be between dips. Wall Street had its most recent breakdown two full years ago. There has been a shift down a half-notch in the real estate market in this area, more so in some segments than others. Whether we get to that ugly place we reached in the last crash is utterly mysterious. Rent/buy ratios, interest rates, employment, etc., etc. This is not Miami.
A shread of valuable information may have arose!
Dwayne,where in New york city could I get that good cuban sandwich?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/22928
El presidente in Washington heights. More Dom republic, but still damn good. Oh and a nice cafe con leche.
W67thstreet will be in lawsuits with all of you tenants in Washington Heights. He graduated from labor at the age of 7 to clothing from Salvation Army to skipping rent to lawsuits with tenants.
truth
Thanks apt23 for opening this discussion and contributing this good info.
Stuy town is offering zip cars and iPads to brokers to get units rented, which certainly suggests they might have a vacancy or two:
http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/stuyvesant-town-and-peter-cooper-village-offers-broker-and-renter-concessions-according-to-a-flier-linked-to-tishman-speyer
Another reason NYC is not Miami is that we have a ton of co-ops. Co-ops saved NYC from a much bigger housing debacle and co-op owners are going to be sitting pretty when the dust settles, a few years down the road---that's my prediction. We'll see.
Karla Harby, Charles Rutenberg Realty
kharby@crrnyc.com
Miami RE developers never even claimed they were marketing primary residences. Second homes, third homes, fourth homes, safe haven investments for Latin Americans, retirement homes....... Other big difference: If every apartment in StuyTown were vacant, there are people to fill them up with. The question is at what price. They would not need to rent 2-bedrooms for $800 a month and accept Section 8 vouchers. But somewhere in between that one extreme hypothetical and the asking rents at the peak of the market, there is a way to fill every single apartment in StuyTown. New York City does not have enough housing. In the vast multi-tiered food chain, there are plenty of price points at which every vacancy could be absorbed. Of course, the sky is still falling.
THere are tons of vacancies here at pcvst. Not sure what they are doing but it looks like they are only putting very expensive apts on the market to rent and there are many unrenovated ones sitting there. THey have raised rents substantially over the past 6 months. It's pretty insane. The offices always look empty. I don't think they want to rent any of them - honestly. We'll see what happens at the auction today.
I think that by and large, Miami is a vacation and leisure destination, and very different from the New York metropolitan area, home to so many families. Certainly speculation in the Miami market led to many difficulties there. In contrast, the opportunity today in the New York market is to invest where you live and to prepay your future living expenses when alternatives for your cash are poor (such as risky stocks, low returning bonds, and dangerously high-priced gold) and your opportunities to borrow are at record low interest rates.
With a sensible downpayment, prudent mortgage borrowing, and a modest reflection on your family's living needs for some years to come, your family can own and be secure today and in the future.