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Yesterday I saw a flyer outside of the 5th Street Lofts sales office. It advertised that the owner of a 555sq ft. studio, and must have just closed, wanted to sell his unit immediately. He was asking for $460k for Apt 2CN.
...for which he paid about $380K? Good luck.
Totally, dude. He's up the creek.
Wait until this happens at the rest of the LIC locations. I predict that once these developments close on all pending contract the rest of the units will see significant reductions. This is just the beginning. Actually the first development in LIC that adjusts it prices first has the best chance of sell their remaining units. First one to get to the little remaining demand wins. At these asking price's not one of these developments will sell the remainder of their units. My guess is LIC developers have to reduce asking to about $500-600 sq foot to have a chance at selling the rest of their units. The alternative is that they keep and rent them out. Not such a great alternative for people paying 1M for a unit that is being rented next door for $3500-4000 and you are paying $6500 and just put down $200,000. Oh and before everybody tells me I'm nuts, to late I have heard it all already. However LIC is not the only area that is going to see these reductions in NYC.
Just about all of Brooklyn is headed in the same direction. The amount of new inventory is staggering, it has just not been released by the developers. It's a collective effort by the developers not to flood the market. Once one breaks the rest will have little choice. The truth is that some have already begun under the table deals with buyers and are careful not to let their fellow developers know.
Looks like Fusion Condo pulled their remaining units off the market. My guess is they'll try to rent it out, probably $3500-3900/month for each 2 bed/2 bath. If you bought a unit at $900k, for example, and put down $180k, borrowed $780k, you're looking at paying at least $6500/month for mortgage and maintenance together. And your renter-neighbor will be paying half as much. Yikes.
With rent being $3500 for the same unit to make it worth buying in comparison it should sell for between $600,000-650,000. That's about $300,000 less then asking. Even at $4000/month that same place should sell for $700,000 Max. A 1200 SQ FT 2bed/2bath should be in the $550-600 sq ft range. That means that EC3 that is rumored to go on the market at $1000-1100 is twice the actual price when compared to renting. EC3 1200 sq ft. at $1000 is 1.2M. That means $240,000 down and $7000/month. Or $4000/month rent and invest the $240,000 and $3000 save a month. And best of all not paying top dollar for a "developing neighborhood".
Purple, I doubt the 2 bed/2 bath will be able to get much more than $3500 for a 2 bed/2 bath at the Fusion. Avalon is renting 2 bedroom from 2,800 to 3,800 (the higher end have amazing views, high floor). Avalon has great amenties and great location, and Fusion is less so.
DCO, I agree that LIC will have some price adjustments, but I don't think it will go down that low. EC3 sales will definitely be challenged. I don't think people will pay that type of premium for LIC to comparable relatively new buildings in the area.
Post anything about LIC, and dco automatically gives the same baseless comments he puts on every other post in which he has been discredited over and over again.
This guy is smoking high-octane crack.
Elliman has a rental listed in what sounds like LIC new construction for $33/sf. If you apply that to this studio, equivalent rent is around $1,500. When you tax the equivalent monthly by factoring in an aggressive tax deduction and common charges, this gets you to a price of $325K. And that doesn't even take into account closing costs.
Is there a special blend of high-octane crack native to LIC that I'm not aware of?
faustus- This is what I have been saying. People like LICComent have their heads buried in the sand for two reasons. One they bought at the height of the market and now realize that they could of rented for a fraction of the cost Or they are Realtors who continue to lie to buyers about the state of the market.
There is no demand out there. People are seriously misinformed about the state of the market and the economy. You don't have to lose your job, all you need is to feel cautious and uncertain about your employment and it will prevent most people from making the biggest decision of their lives.
Low demand caused by job lose/uncertainty and the tightest credit crunch in this nations history is going to drive price's down EVERYWHERE. First the inventory will build and then sellers will become desperate because they have no choice. Not to mention the amount of unreleased new inventory that is being artificially held by developers as to not flood the market. This tactic can only last as long as they have enough money to hold the bank off themselves.
dco, what do you do for a living?
Why do you ask SSNYC? If you give me a reason I might actually tell you.
dco keeps spewing the same mistaken, nonsensical arguments over and over, even when presented with intelligent, fact-based responses showing his mistakes. His commentary is laughable.
"report abuse dco keeps spewing the same mistaken, nonsensical arguments over and over, even when presented with intelligent, fact-based responses showing his mistakes. His commentary is laughable".
Then why is it that you insist on responding to a nut such as myself. Could it be that you feel you have lost the argument. How are sales going LICComent since you are the most knowledgeable of the area?
1400+ square feet at $820 sq ft. for the upper eastside. LIC now cost more than Manhattan. For those who say you can't find a place in Manhattan for the same money you were right it's cheaper.
Sorry it's actually almost 1500 sq ft.
just watch out for the crane!
Great example dco - a $1.225 million 2-bedroom co-op with maintenance of $1,358 per month, all the way up on 91st Street all the way on the east side. That's the best you can do?
LICComment, please - yorkville has some really good schools, and this coop is 2 bed, plus a den plus an office ..
I used this listing to prove that no matter what I or anyone else proves to you, you're blinded by LIC and it's "value". Give me a break. This is a great listing and shows several things. First that it Below 96th st. (not Harlem). It's located in great school district. It's 1500 sq ft. And the asking is 1.2M. Good chance the sale will be at least 5% below asking.
I'm I the only one that thinks this is that bad of a comparison about finding a unit that is actually cheaper the most 2bed/2baths in LIC. My point is that you find units that are cheaper.
LICComment- Just face the fact that LIC is going to have to reduce prices to the 500-600 range.
dco: You might think twice before using that 91st Street address as a comp. Do you know the building?
The den and bedroom are actually one long room that is less than 9' wide and has a glass block separation.
How many LIC 2-bedroom apartments are over $1.2 million? Not that many, and the ones that are happen to be either very large, have lots of terrace space, have amazing views or a combination of all. Stop trying to mislead people again.
Here's an eyebrow raiser...apartments at 111 Central Park North are asking around $2 million(though dropping a bit). If you bought that, you'll have to pay somewhere around $12,000/month. But guess what? Rental listings for that same 2-bedroom only costs $6700/month. Why buy if you can rent for half as much? If you can afford $6500/month, why buy a 2-bed condo in LIC? You can live in style in Manhattan with park views for virtually the same price. Holy canoli, Batman!
LICComment- First this apartment is bigger then almost every 2 beds/2baths in LIC. Second the maintenance is cheaper then LIC given the size. Third not every unit has a terrace lot alone an "AMAZING TERRACE" in LIC.
How is this misleading. Everyone can check themselves. I'll start.
Active Listings- At 5SL
$1,488,990 509 48th Avenue, #7F 3 beds 1,587 ft²
$1,064,990 509 48th Avenue, #5A 3 beds 1,542 ft²
$1,062,990 509 48th Avenue, #6K 2 beds 1,216 ft²
$1,034,990 509 48th Avenue, #5K 2 beds 1,216 ft²
$1,013,990 509 48th Avenue, #4K 2 beds 1,216 ft²
$1,009,990 509 48th Avenue, #7A 2 beds 1,217 ft²
- Note the square feet. And these are the units that no one wants.--
The POWERHOUSE THESE ARE LISTED AS SOLD UNITS. THE BUILDING IS NOT EVEN 50% SOLD. WOW THESE MUST BE FOREIGNERS
02/02/2008 #401 - $960,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,333 ft²
02/02/2008 #1001 - $1,365,000 ↓ 3 beds 2 baths 1,622 ft²
02/02/2008 #1011 - $1,075,000 ↓ 2 beds 2 baths 1,263 ft²
01/11/2008 #803 - $1,500,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,201 ft²
12/24/2007 #615 - $1,050,000 1 bed 2 baths 1,285 ft²
12/24/2007 #905 - $1,275,000 ↓ 2 beds 2 baths 1,441 ft²
LICComment tell me where I'm misleading people. Yes I know that there are cheaper units in LIC. However there are also cheaper units in Manhattan. I think you are missing the point. As the days go buy the inventory builds all over the city. The price reduction are going to continue and eventually you will see units being listed with real chances of selling. This will cause the other units to reluctantly begin to chop and chop. Once that starts new development units will begin to flood the market with their inventory for fear of being left holding a bad note. I find it very hard to believe that with all the intelligent and professional people on this site daily that more people don't see the tidal wave approaching. I prefer to think that most understand fully but lie to make a living at the expense of others.
dco lists 8 2-bedrooms in LIC to prove his point and 6 of them are not even close to $1.225 million in price. Of the other two, one of them has a huge outdoor space. dco, good thing you are not a lawyer, with the way you argue your clients would all be bankrupt or in jail.
Look at sq/ft price genius 10/12 are actually more expensive then the asking price of $820/ft for the above upper east-side on 91st.
Active Listings- At 5SL
$1,488,990 509 48th Avenue, #7F 3 beds 1,587 ft² $938/FT
$1,064,990 509 48th Avenue, #5A 3 beds 1,542 ft² $690/FT
$1,062,990 509 48th Avenue, #6K 2 beds 1,216 ft² $874/FT
$1,034,990 509 48th Avenue, #5K 2 beds 1,216 ft² $851/FT
$1,013,990 509 48th Avenue, #4K 2 beds 1,216 ft² $833/FT
$1,009,990 509 48th Avenue, #7A 2 beds 1,217 ft² $829/FT
- Note the square feet. And these are the units that no one wants.--
The POWERHOUSE THESE ARE LISTED AS SOLD UNITS. THE BUILDING IS NOT EVEN 50% SOLD. WOW THESE MUST BE FOREIGNERS
02/02/2008 #401 - $960,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,333 ft² $720/FT
02/02/2008 #1001 - $1,365,000 ↓ 3 beds 2 baths 1,622 ft² $841/FT
02/02/2008 #1011 - $1,075,000 ↓ 2 beds 2 baths 1,263 ft² $851/FT
01/11/2008 #803 - $1,500,000 2 beds 2 baths 1,201 ft² $1248/FT
12/24/2007 #615 - $1,050,000 1 bed 2 baths 1,285 ft² $817/FT
12/24/2007 #905 - $1,275,000 ↓ 2 beds 2 baths 1,441 ft² $884/FT
Oh and just in case anyone is interested and can't afford to live in LIC you can get a great unit in the ghetto located on the upper-east or west-side for under a $1000/FT. Perhaps someday with hard work you can get your family a better place like in LIC.
Sure, listen to dco and spend over $200k-$300k more to live in a worse building, co-op instead of condo, all the way up on 91st Street and York. You must have graduated at the top of your class dco.
The only catch is that you have to deal with is sending your kids to great schools, sharing central park and deciding what to do with the re-sale profit years from now.
I have to say... dco does have a point in the higher bracket of lux apartments. I mean, without going into detail since I think this point has been proven may times over, but a LIC dev like 5SL was considered a "smart" buy for those pushed out of Manhattan who still wanted the high end lux apartments but close to Manhattan. I am sure it may still be a "smart" buy, but maybe with a heartburn or two in the next year or two.
At the same time, I believe many people who are taking a hard look at LIC, who believe in LIC like LICComment, can not ignore what is going on in LIC. Even if prices go down, there is no stopping LIC from developing into a neighborhood worth staying. You wouldn't really take LIC seriously unless you gave it a try. It was like Alphabet city when it was the new up and coming neighborhood. Whenever you brought your friends over, they would mention how seedy or shady some blocks were. LIC is in that transistion.
As for the pricing... errr... I am rooting for $500-$600/FT. Purves is already there:
In my opinion, 110th street on the park or way east in the 90's are not the areas of manhattan that I would want to be in.
Sure, you can argue that there are decent schools in yorkville but I would move to bronxville or westchester before I would make the hike to the east side on 91st street - if schools are the issue (and no, I would not want to move to the burbs ... just a point).
Otherwise, I look at the areas in manhattan that interest me (East village, west village, Soho, midtown (for work), Union square) -- and yes, that's an opinion. Being near the met may be more important to other people, I realize that.
Anyhow, for the people like me, and there are plenty out there, they would take LIC over the way upper east or way upper west (riverside or york) any day (at comprable prices).
To some people, being able to say that they live in "Manhattan" is the most important thing in the world. That is slowly changing and brooklyn has led the way. People are starting to realize that NYC is a much larger area than just manhattan...people are also realizing that manhattan includes some areas that are pretty crappy.
It all depends on what your interests are and how close they are to you. I live in midtown -- not the most desireable area for most, but it is convinient for me to get to work and I can get to all of the other places that I want to be at within 15 minutes...try getting from 91st and york to the west village in less than 30 minutes (more like 45 realistically) without tkaing a cab.
So, yes, if by manhattan you mean 5th ave on central park (south of 70s) or a loft in tribeca then I would agree that I would choose manhattan at the same price -- if i have to choose where in manhattan I am going to spend my money then it makes a big difference to me. Obviously, prices in those places are not the same.
So, when I live in a 1 bedroom in midtown and it would cost me $1,000 + psf with $1,300 in monthly charges then I would rather move to LIC and take a small 2 bedroom with a 10 year abatement at $650 - 750 psf with around $800 in monthly costs (tax and maintenance).
Even if I had to compare it to $820psf on 91st and FDR then I would on location alone take LIC -- again personal preference.
By the way...the same people who would consider it uncool not to live in "manhattan" would not want to live on 91st street. I am clearly not one of theose people, but just pointing out that the snobby commets that are being made about "not being in manhattan" would also apply to central park north or the far upper east side.
lobo- Very well said. I clearly understand and respect your opinion on the matter. Its clear to me that you understand what I was trying to say. The fact that we are even comparing Manhattan to LIC tells me and many others that price's got way out of control. If Manhattan continues to drop in price then the outer-boroughs will need to adjust. There are an increasing amount of units all over Manhattan dipping into the $800/FT range and will continue. So LIC dropping to $500/ft is just around the corner.
I was trying to illustrate with the 2 Manhattan properties that you can find something cheaper in great areas of Manhattan. I fully understand that WAY EAST and WAY WEST are not the most desirable, but neither is the developing area of LIC. That was my point. I showed 2 units SOUTH of 96th street that were cheaper then buying in LIC. To be fair about the whole thing I could find hundreds of units above 96th street (Harlem) that would be much cheaper then LIC.
In a nut shell, if prices continue to fall in Manhattan then so goes the rest of NYC.
Absolutely agreed with you DCO.
I'm glad I bought in Jersey City, in a new luxury loft condo for under $500 psf. Prices were not inflated, and there is more room to appreciate here. Plus my monthly carrying costs are much more reasonable, almost the same as to rent a comparable 1BR (after the tax savings). Plus building equity hopefully and the peace of mind of "owning" your place and not having to worry about annual rent increases or moving.
I know there are plenty of off the main island haters, but hey, JC works fantastic for us :) Exceptional commute to downtown Manhattan for work, and a fantastic neighborhood and community. If it weren't for my job, I'm tempted to never go into the city!
dco is comparing the cheapest Manhattan apartments he can find with the most expensive ones in LIC. He is not going to convince anyone with these types of biased unfair comparisons.
New LIC condos have been selling at a range of $650-$850 psf, depending on location. Comparable Manhattan prices are $1200psf-$2300psf. dco arbitrarily (because he can't afford it and is bitter) states that prices should be $500 psf, with no sensible basis for that statement, other than "the market is bad, credit is unavailable, everything is about to crash, blah, blah, blah . . ." He just repeats the same simple-minded nonsense over and over without addressing any actual facts that contradict him.
Here's a fact. You bought at the height of the market and are poised to lose a lot of money and won't be happy until everyone makes the same mistake.
Here's a fact. LIC projects are at a stand still.
Here's a Fact. Demand is way down.
Here's a fact. Lowering the price to $500/Ft is inevitable.
Here's a fact. If bought within the last 2 years you will lose money if you sell in next few years.
Here's a fact. If you buy today you will lose money before you even close on the deal.
Here's a Fact. Renting in NYC is a much better deal 99% of the time in this market and will remain until price's fall 20-30%.
I never said crash. I prefer correction. When it is crystal clear that it is better to rent the market will correct it's self. I know that you think this is blah, blah, blah, however it is you that have proven nothing except to say that I'm lying. That's great and keep thinking that and while your at it you should buy a couple of units in LIC and flip them next year.
It's easy enough to find alluring per-square-foot prices in Manhattan, but there's always some sort of trade-off. Consider this 1,500 square foot 2BR co-op on the "good" side of the 59th Street Bridge, one short block from Bloomingdales and the subway:
Listed for $1.475MM last October. Sold last week for $1.1MM.
Awesome deal, right? Uhhh... check the maintenance.
dco: Minor correction to your third fact: we don't really know whether demand is down yet. Liquidity is down, and transaction volume is down. It's too early to say that the raw number of potential buyers is down. It's a reasonable inference, but it's not provable from the available evidence.
Dco, please don't put words in my mouth.
I agree that overall prices may get more flexible (as I have said before, i do NOT think that we will see a crash though).
My point was - yes even south of 96th street -- the listing in yorkville -- is not somewhere that I would want to live.
I agree, as/if prices come down in Manhattan they will come down all over the city - I don't think that anyone will argue that point.
My point is that many people would choose to live in LIC over 91st between 1st and york. I personally would be one fo those people becasue I would rather be able to be to work in less than 10 minutes (door to door) and have easy access to SoHo -- west side etc, I don't want live at the crummy sports bars on the upper east, if that's what you want then move to hoboken.
The day that you can show me a doorman luxury building in SoHo, Chelsea, East Village, Union Square, Park Ave south -- or god, even 5th Ave below 70th street that is cheaper than LIC then I would obviously choose that over LIC.
I don't agree with everything that LICComment says but his point is fair. You can't compare the $psf in yorkville (in any building) and say that people would want to live there over LIC. In fact, I would compare yorkville -- by location, to some of the lower $psf in LIC. You can find plenty of nice places with terraces and views in LIC for $700 - 750psf. You can actually still find plenty of stuff in the high 600s psf range. Heck - 1.2 million in LIC can get you a 3/4 bedroom penthouse with a 500sf terrace with a view in one of the smaller (doorman luxury) buildings in LIC.
If your opinion is that you wold want to live on 91st and 1st over LIC, that's fine. Just realize that it is your opinion and that not everyone shares it. And more than one person having an opinion is what creates demand.
West81- I look at the maintenance all the time when doing an analysis. The unit on 91st. has a low maintenance of $1300/month. High CC's is why renting right now is the best bet. CC's are only going to increases with rising cost of fuel. Not all of those cost can be pushed on to renters, resulting in renting becoming an even better financial move. Condo and Co-op boards are going to have to start making adjustments in the next couple of months to meet the cost. If the price's remain the same for the heating season people are going to see their CC's increase 10-15%. There are of course many variable for each building, but all will be spending much more over the next year.
dco, your logic is just inane. You have been presented time and again with the actual numbers to show that renting is not clear and away better than buying in this market. In fact, if you plan to stay in your place for more than 2 years, it is hard to argue that renting is better at today's overall prices and rent levels.
All of your "facts" are actually your delusions. Who says LIC developments are at a stand still? Sales have slowed this year compared to last, but apartments still seem to be moving relatively well. Who says demand is way down? Prices all over the city have stabilized, even come down a bit in some areas, but up till now, even with all the problems in the market, prices have held up well. Your claim of $500psf in LIC is laughable. I actually agree that some developments are a bit overpriced, and may come down a little (5%?), but you can keep dreaming of $500 dco. Your other facts are just more nonsense.
As for your fact about me - wrong again. I actually bought my first place in 1998, and I've been rolling the profits into my next places ever since. Good think I didn't listen to you and decide to rent instead of buy.
LICComment- Answer this question.
West81st, I always appreciate the even-handedness of your posts, but I wonder what more evidence we need that demand is down? Bonus-bounce season and spring open house season both saw far fewer transactions. The first quarter sales report from Miller/Samuel had YOY transactions down 43% for co-ops and 25% for condos (and Bear Stearns didn't melt down until the end of it). A major part of the buying pool credited with supporting higher prices (Wall Street) is taking one hit after another. While anecdotal, the open house scene as reported here (and as I've witnessed) is waaaay slower than it was in recent years. Even Curbed's attempt at an open house report was a dud (I think they're trying to steal our thunder).
Closer to the topic, from Bloomberg today on Toll Brothers after another quarterly loss:
"The number of contracts signed fell 69 percent in northern states including New York, New Jersey and Illinois. Contracts fell 40 percent in Arizona, California, Colorado and Nevada, and 35 percent in the Mid-Atlantic region. They declined 17 percent in its South region that includes Florida, Texas and North Carolina."
I have no idea how much of Toll Bros northern state development is concentrated in New York City, as opposed to the rest of the state, NJ, Ill, etc., but 5SL is one of only 3 projects here, and another of the three (North 8) is older and has been nearly finished with sales for a while.
dco, what does that question have to do with this topic?
tenemental, West81 said that transaction volume is down.
ccdevi- It shows how grossly overpriced units have gotten. LICComments doesn't see that you can rent a place for a fraction of what it cost to buy. There is a studio listed for immediate re-sale at 5sl located in LIC. If look at rents in that area you will see the major benefit of renting. The above post just shows another example of the benefits of renting in this market. That's all.
ccdevi, I realize that. What I'm wondering is, when it's down this far, and coupled with our open house experiences, what additional evidence is needed to remove the distinction between "fewer transactions" and "decreased demand"?
Even if the "raw number of potential buyers" remains the same but refuses to buy without significant price reductions, that is, to me at least, a considerable drop in demand.
But to be clear, I do think that raw number is down.
dco, it doesn't "prove" that, its proves that THAT apt is grossly overpriced. its says very little about apts in general or LIC.
OK ccdevi- I'll tell you what. Do a total analysis of Manhattan and then perhaps some people may actually accept the findings. If you can't see that I was just showing how ridiculous prices' are then I'm sorry for confusing. At least you agreed that, it "proves" that apt. is overpriced but most of Manhattan and the "it" areas are a bargain.
This is typical of dco. He finds one off-the-wall anomaly and generalizes the entire state of the market to make some misguided point. Then you provide actual facts based on reality and all he will do is babble the same nonsense and make up more incorrect facts.
LICComment- How are sales at the Powerhouse, 5SL and the Foundry going recently? Hurry only a few left.
What i don't agree with is your analysis that "most of manhattan and the "it" areas are a bargain".
I don't disagree with you on the current state of the market (overall) -- although we may disagree on how much things could fall.
What I disagree with is the fact that you compare LIC to another area and say that it is overpriced in COMPARISON.
The rent vs. buy of an apartment on 91st street and 1st for $820psf is no better than a rent vs. buy of an $820ps place in LIC (generally speaking -- nad most places in LIC are well below the $820psf mark). New construction listing price decraeses are happening all over the city -- unless you are talking about 15 CPW but I don't think that any of the people on this board are buying there anyway.
The rent vs. buy all over this city is screwey right now. That is somethign that anyone would be happy to debate. As i have told you before, you are getting into arguments because you single out LIC and slowly drift into a conversation about the overall state of the NYC market.
Get over the fact that not every area of Manhattan is considered "it" and as long as enough people share that opinion then your argument does not make sense. I personally would pay more for rent on the LIC waterfront then the far upper east water front --- or financial district, or riverside...
That's my point.
"but most of Manhattan and the "it" areas are a bargain"
yeah of course I never said any such thing, in fact I've said the opposite.
"If you can't see that I was just showing how ridiculous prices' are then I'm sorry for confusing."
hilarious, yes you were doing exactly what I accused you of, drawing a market wide conclusion from one example. So I saw what you were doing and called you on it, you "denied" my accusation by doing exactly what I accused you of. Do you actually spin around in circles while posting.
Then of course there is the fact, which I posted in the other thread, that the example you chose is some completely crazed seller who priced their apt 50% higher then the most recent comparable in the building.
If I owned a 3 br facing the park in 15 CPW and listed it for $1 mil, do you think that dco would say that proves its better do own then to rent?
ccdevi- "If I owned a 3 br facing the park in 15 CPW and listed it for $1 mil, do you think that dco would say that proves its better do own then to rent?"
NO I would pay cash for it in the next hour.
Looks like there are a few resales in the building that just got listed. Both are studios listed in the mid to high 800s psf.
Good luck, you are delusional.
nice bldg. wouldn't mind living there.
Very few re-sales here these days. Anyone know the most recent price per square foot on average for the smaller apartments?
Is anyone worried about buying a resale here as it is one of the older buildings (built 2007-08) where the abatement will run out and taxes will be 10X higher in 10 years? Any guesses on what the market will bring and based on what people can afford as a monthly nut is this the worse time to buy in LIC?