unemployed staying at home increases costs for landlords

yep, i've seen this even at the nanny level too, not only manhattan but cheaper places too (bronx and queens). also heard from NPR that even people on RC and disability are doing it in the city. 8 people living in 2 bedrooms... the immigrants used to be able to accommodate 8 in 1 room in the lower east side back in the day. couldn't stop picturing that images as the radio show was going on.

I believe this is the opposite of housing "formation", no? Residential one-off LLs are gonna have a hard time renting/competing in a high end building where the Co-op and Condos are gonna come down HARD on this. Yep yep, it happened all the time in the early 1990's.

The more I see these things, the more I am CONVINCED the "sales" side will HAVE to come down, and in fact I have started a rentals list to determine where the sale market is heading and have definitely been impressed w/ SE's rentals quality. AND REMEMBER children, these are ASKING rents and be had 10/20% lower in oct/nov, when LL GETZ totally desperate... cause they know NOV, DEC, JAN is shot.... EXPECT GIGNORMOUS cuts in late september early october.... now send 10% of your savings to this swiss bank account....

"A June rental survey by credit agency TransUnion found that of the more than 870 property managers surveyed across the country, more than half were having trouble finding qualified tenants, and 81 percent said they were worried about finding qualified tenants for the rest of the year."

wow, a tenant's market? is it going to show up in pre-bubble rents? somehow i really doubt it

i was thinking about starting a list your cheap rental finds here thread. that doctor moving to nyc thread? i found a 40 sutton place 2/2 condo for $3700. didn't look great, necessarily, but man oh man. if i were still young and unburdened, i think i'd have a good time trying out a couple of (more)neighborhoods.

the joys of rentals :) , and the rentals mkt is definitely taking a second leg down and much more quickly than the sales... won't be long now b/f the sales mkt reflects this in 1st qtr 2010.... till then a lot of inventory showing up b/f thanksgiving... a pull back for holidays, although if a lot of units for sales do come in the holidays=> beginning of mini-capitulation?

"I believe this is the opposite of housing "formation", no?"

yep. i've seen arrangements already that i had not heard before. they are nothing new in other countries (and even in USA, but you need to go like a generation ago for this, or further?). they include sisters with kids buying a house together in the burbs instead of both renting separately in the city. also a mother of 3 and her own mother (62, recently retired) building a house together with a granny's part in the back with the proceeds of selling both houses. grandma will pay the utilities and provide childcare. all this might make economic sense, but somehow i was hearing all the love for independent living during the bubble that i don't hear anymore.

"the joys of rentals :) , and the rentals mkt is definitely taking a second leg down and much more quickly than the sales... won't be long now b/f the sales mkt reflects this in 1st qtr 2010.... till then a lot of inventory showing up b/f thanksgiving... a pull back for holidays, although if a lot of units for sales do come in the holidays=> beginning of mini-capitulation?"

are you sure? my gut feeling is that many landlords prefer higher vacancies than lower rents. each few weeks i hear yet another family in my building moving out. but the landlord is notorious for not replacing them quickly. even during the bubble, while having multiple "offers" from prospective tenants. they took their time to paint... replace the floors... all at a nail's pace.

admin, landlords these days, whether homeowners, banks or traditional larger landlords, have much more debt. they can't afford to warehouse. they can't afford not to, either, but they are thinking about making the next payment. kind of like the consumer.

i think $12500 covers the monthly costs, not including tax deductions for the loss, or the opportunity costs of putting 30% down and closing costs.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/545292-rental-151-east-85th-street-upper-east-side-new-york
07/16/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $11,500.
07/22/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $9,500.
08/15/2009 Price decreased by 7% to $8,850.

admin, it goes against economics 101.... higher vacancies... why does the airlines use yield management? it doesn't mean there aren't LLs who are "stronger" but you can't fight the tape.

THE RE MKT is based upon misinformation. THE LL is trying to signal he/she is financially strong cause if the entire bldg RR was cut by 10% in an instant, he would be bk. TRUST ME ON THIS. Most LL, have very little cushion, so they are "pretending" so that the other 90% of tenants just re-up at 5% increase.... it is only when their hands are forced will they admit defeat. Don't be the lemming scared of the LL, a "good" LL should have a reserve and be willing to negotiate to the mkt realities, a bad LL just plays the misinformation game as long as possible.. Trust me....

w67th, what's the average tenure for mkt rate rentals in nyc? i bet that will decrease. the higher turnover not only comes from the unemployed consolidating households but also those that were renting in the sidelines are being enticed to come out or rent a better unit at similar price.

the more people stay in place (longer tenant tenure), the less they negotiate? (the more reluctant to move, the more settled they are to the area)... seems to me that if you know you would want to stay put renting (say, for 2-3 years more at least) the more it pays to have a very hard stand towards negotiating (at least, say, 10%-15% discount?).

"Most LL, have very little cushion"

hear, hear, sure i forget about this. my image of a LL is a guy that already paid off the place or a newly built building (well, sure there i see the debt from the construction). but there are tons of players in between.

the preference towards higher vacancy instead of lower rentals didn't add up to me in such a fragmented mkt. sure if it were an oligopoly or better LL could pull it off. not the case here.

Within your building, the ll is a monopoly and it has been economically proven that it plays to misinform in this situation. I wish I could pull up the theory and calculus to prove it. But that was a prior life and time.

Pays. Damn iPhone

It's kind of weird to be unemployed and always seeing a doorman or something.

"Within your building, the ll is a monopoly"

very true, for the tenants the barriers of exit are quite high, hence less negotiating power. the lack of info is disturbing. we have a group were we exchange info (of all kids), but we don't share what rents we are paying. why? no idea! privacy? maybe we are morons... but LL know we dont' share that, right?

goaldcoast- agreed. A while back when I moved to my new place and took a 2 week vacation at the start of moving in, I'd see the doorman many times a day. I was always so embarassed because I thought he must have thought I was unemployed or something. But later, when I got to know the doorman, I found out he didn't give a rats ass about me, he just wanted to do what he needed to earn his christmas tip.

"i was thinking about starting a list your cheap rental finds here thread. that doctor moving to nyc thread? i found a 40 sutton place 2/2 condo for $3700. didn't look great, necessarily, but man oh man. if i were still young and unburdened, i think i'd have a good time trying out a couple of (more)neighborhoods."

Aboutready would you really want to live that far East? 40 sutton place just seems far from everything, kind of out in no man's land.

My rental building they put your monthly rent invoice in the door crack monthly. I've only been here a couple months now, but last month (technically this month still) since they did it about 8 at night I rounded up on my floor all of the 1 bedrooms and checked out the rent. So mine looks pretty good, which is good and bad.

not me luchias. what i would like or not, or you, isn't really the point. this is sutton place. not a top property in that neighborhood, but plenty of people would want to rent there.

"40 sutton place just seems far from everything, kind of out in no man's land."

It is. That was originally the point. Previous generations of rich people preferred to be tucked away in their own little enclave, away from public view. Today's crass generation, however, WANTS to be seen -- everywhere, all the time, doing everything.

It used to be that our starting bank class would put in our bonus # into a bowl anonymously. Someone would tally up highest lowest and average for all to see. Lmao. Those were the days! now ihatethatgirl, in the interest of a scientific study please jumble up the bills and put it in the doors randomly next month. And please do post what happens after that. I bet the deliverer gets strict instructions to shove the bills all the way in. Lmao

Nycmatt so I assume you live in Ohio.

Manhattan.

But thanks for playing.

Oh I see AR, thanks.

This is re and it's not a game.

Previous generations of rich people preferred to be tucked away in their own little enclave, away from public view. Today's crass generation, however, WANTS to be seen -- everywhere, all the time, doing everything"

Matt I am by no means rich and the reason I don't want to live as far out as 40 Sutton Place has nothing to do with "wanting to be SEEN". I want to live close to the subway so I don't have to spend a small fortune on taxis. So it has nothing to do with being 'crass' as you say.

"Matt I am by no means rich and the reason I don't want to live as far out as 40 Sutton Place has nothing to do with "wanting to be SEEN". I want to live close to the subway so I don't have to spend a small fortune on taxis. So it has nothing to do with being 'crass' as you say."

Luchias, you missed the point entirely.

I was talking about RICH people, not people who take the subway.

Seriously NYCMatt are you 75 years old?

Oh ok Matt, I did misunderstand. I do know a couple of rich people in their 40's who live further out. They just hire private drivers to cart them where they want to go so I guess it works out for them to live there.

"My rental building they put your monthly rent invoice in the door crack monthly. I've only been here a couple months now, but last month (technically this month still) since they did it about 8 at night I rounded up on my floor all of the 1 bedrooms and checked out the rent. So mine looks pretty good, which is good and bad."

lol, nice spying! ours get delivered in an envelope.

I've been thinking a lot about the phenomenon of the $3000 1-BR in Manhattan, and wondering if it's been an endangered species.

How perfect do you think a unit would have to be to continue to command that rent over the coming year? Just to get the ball rolling, I would speculate that 1) west of 8th Ave and 2) east of 2nd ave will have a hard time keeping levels that high.

Any thoughts?

what are your parameters? are you talking about only 900 sf Glenwood or Related one bedrooms or more generally. because there are a lot of one bedrooms available right now for $3000.

this is a condo. the white kitchen isn't the height of gorgeous, but it's doorman, elevator, large and $3000. and not flying off the shelf.

the link might be useful.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/543651-condo-166-east-63rd-street-lenox-hill-new-york

although now i realize you're saying will they go lower. i saw a brodsky 1/1 for $1600. no way of telling exactly what that is, probably converted alcove studio, but that's a respected ll. julia could tell you that's cheap.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/02/business/economy/over-50-female-and-jobless-even-as-others-return-to-work.html

Over 50, Female and Jobless Even as Others Return to Work

By PATRICIA COHENJAN. 1, 2016

The latest signs of an improving economy were good enough to help persuade the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. But the better job market is not good enough to land Chettie McAfee a job.

Laid off at the start of the recession from the diagnostic testing firm in Seattle where she spent more than three decades, Ms. McAfee, 58, has not worked since 2007. “I’ve been applying and applying and applying,” said Ms. McAfee, who has relied on her savings and family to get by as she fights off attempts to foreclose on her home. At interviews, she said, “They ask, ‘Why has it been so long?’”

At 5 percent, the jobless rate may be close to what economists consider full employment, but that headline figure doesn’t capture the challenges still facing millions of Americans who have yet to regain their footing in the workplace.

Ms. McAfee is part of a group that has found the postrecession landscape particularly difficult to navigate: women over 50.

That is especially striking because many recent economic and social trends — the decline of manufacturing and the rise of health care, the advance of educated women into professions and jobs once mostly occupied by men — were seen as harmful to working-age men and advantageous for the growing ranks of working women.

But many of these older women now earn far less and use many fewer skills than they did before. Others have been left stranded without any job for months or even years. Some have given up the search altogether.

A new study on long-term unemployment from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found that the prospects for women over 50 darkened after the Great Recession. In 2006-7, before the downturn hit, less than a quarter of the unemployed in this group had been out of work for more than six months. By 2012-13, older jobless women accounted for half of the long-term unemployed.

The employment picture has definitely improved since then, economists point out, and more older women have managed to return to work. Still, the waves from the recession, which ended six and a half years ago, continue to upend many people who were cast aside during and immediately after the storm.

For Older Women, a Dismal Job Outlook

More than six years after the recession ended, many women over 50 are struggling to find a secure footing in the workplace, slowing their generation-long economic advance.
“How long people take to find a new job has been much longer than in previous recessions,” said Alexander Monge-Naranjo, a co-author of the St. Louis Fed study. “The natural question is, Why?”

There are no simple answers.

When it comes to women over 50, one theory that makes sense to Mr. Monge-Naranjo is that those who dropped out of the labor force to take care of children when they were younger can’t easily get back in. “They did not see that the labor market was going to be so tough and it’s taking quite some time to go back to normal,” he said.

That has been Lynn Colafrancesco’s experience. Once a vice president at a reinsurance company, Ms. Colafrancesco, now 59 and divorced, started determinedly looking for a full-time job three years ago. As soon as she mentioned that she had taken off time to care for two children, she could see in the interviewer’s face that she had been summarily dismissed.

“Now I don’t even mention about my kids,” Ms. Colafrancesco said. “They don’t want to hear that.” To make ends meet, she works as a substitute teacher a couple of days a week and rents out rooms in her house in Fairfield, Conn.

Certainly older workers — male and female — must contend with age discrimination.

“I have been told in interviews that they want somebody younger,” said Karen Lamkin, a lawyer with 25 years of experience who lives outside Boston and has been out of work for three years. “It does not matter that I would be satisfied with the salary for a junior position.”

A shrinking network of professional contacts, and possibly fewer cutting-edge skills, can also hamper older workers in the job hunt, said Connie Wanberg, a professor at the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In a world where networking is done more and more online, they may be less adept at the latest techniques. Older workers can also be pickier, Ms. Wanberg said — more reluctant to relocate away from family, for example, or to do certain kinds of jobs.

The question is whether these factors operate even more powerfully for women than for men, Ms. Wanberg said. Women, who are much more likely to be burdened with caregiving responsibilities, even as they age, may require more flexibility in their schedules, for example.

Some simply do not want to settle.

With her house and car paid off, and some investment income coming in, Susan McNeill Spuhler, 52, an engineer who was laid off in April 2013, said she was waiting for the right fit. She has seen friends in more desperate financial straits “take any job and then spiral down” because the job or the company was subpar.

Ms. Spuhler and others now in their 50s, 60s and 70s were among the waves of women who entered the paid labor force in record numbers, changing the face of the American economy. Even as men’s participation rate in the labor force plunged, women — especially those 55 and older — have for the most part continued to join.

But while older workers generally have lower unemployment rates than younger ones, those who find themselves jobless, for whatever reason, tend to find themselves stuck there for longer. And women 55 and older who lose a job have more trouble than men getting another one, according to Sara E. Rix, an analyst and former senior researcher for AARP, the lobbying organization for older Americans.

“Older displaced women are less likely than displaced men of the same ages to be re-employed and more likely to have left the labor force,” she noted in a recent analysis.

The type of occupations dominated by women may play a role as well. For example, “public teacher employment is still below what it was in 2007,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institute. “And that definitely disproportionately affects women.”

As for Americans hovering around or past the traditional retirement age, some have remained in the work force because they want to. Others have no choice: The financial crisis may have wiped out much of their retirement savings and equity in their home.

Older women are frequently in worse financial situations because their work histories are spottier — often because they took time off to care for children — or they were dependent to some extent on husbands who may no longer be alive or whom they divorced. Even those who worked steadily often earned less than men, resulting in smaller Social Security and pension benefits and less savings.

While unskilled workers are at the greatest disadvantage when it comes to finding work, many older women with impressive educational credentials and résumés tell discouraging tales of being turned down for job after job.

Julie Woodbury, a 57-year-old Army veteran who lives in a suburb of Minneapolis, went back to earn a doctorate in communications after leaving the military. “It’s extremely frustrating,” Dr. Woodbury said. “I just can’t find something permanent.” She is not counted among the long-term unemployed, but finds herself cycling on and off the jobless rolls, as one short-term contract ends and she waits for another to begin.

Meryl Manthey, 63, pointed out that she was not counted among the jobless either. “I’m making zero income, but I’m considered self-employed,” said Ms. Manthey, who got her real estate license when she moved back to her mother’s homestead in Wantagh, N.Y., from California three years ago after a divorce. The cross-country resettlement followed years of frustrated job searching after she was laid off from her job doing web-based training.

As for Ms. McAfee, she now recognizes that it is all too easy for almost anybody to fall over the edge. “I did everything you’re supposed to do,” she said. “Now I’m on the other side of the rainbow, and it’s not pretty over here.”

Twitter: @PatcohenNYT

A version of this article appears in print on January 2, 2016, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Over 50, Female and Jobless Even as Others Return to Work