Inventory Below 9000-Downward Trend Continuing Despite Doomsday Predictions

There is some seasonality, so I am not so surprised the inventory is 500 lower than mid-September numbers. For me, the real puzzler was the lack of large bounce post Labor day. That really surprised me.
I have been looking for 9 months, and the most promising listings sold (at 20% above what my max valuation would be); the horribly overpriced listings (I mean listings that would have been overpriced in 2007) are still sitting, or were pulled. There is virtually nothing on the market that is attractive within my search parameters.

Mind-blowing bonuses about to be received by many in NYC. Surely will have impact on ##s.

Most buyers and sellers still can't agree on what the prices should be. However, many have 'agree to disagree'. That is likely why sales volume is still relatively low and inventory might not be what you are expecting.

Large bonuses, sure, but how much in cash? The trend is to have large illiquid bonuses for staff retention, so they can be clawed back.

I agree that the bonuses will be a factor because I've been a believer for about the past dozen years or so that they have been one of the biggest drivers behind the boom/bubble IN MANHATTAN. I think this time the question isn't the size of the bonuses, per se, but how widely they are distributed. I think that if a smaller number of people, many of whom who probably have already bought places within the last year or three, are the recipients, it will have a MUCH smaller effect than if they are given to a broader range of people. (The extreme/ridiculous example: if 20 people get a billion $ each, it will set a record, but won't change the RE market in Manhattan much). The one big plus no matter what is that the extreme drop in income tax revenue will be less than predicted no matter what the breadth of the distribution is.

____________________

David Goldsmith
DG Neary Realty

Are we also assuming that these people with their big bonuses won't be bright enough find a better investment for their cash?

Isn't the bank expected to give out the biggest bonus the same one with the most negative view of future RE prices for NYC?

Sunday, what else are people going to do with their bonus money? If you get a bonus, and you don't own your own home, please tell me what is more prudent. Gold? Stocks? Yachts? Oil? Soybeans? Come on

In terms of future RE prices -- if you are smart, and solvent, who the F cares. spend your life obsessing on this and you'll have little to show for it but that

You can't buy an apartment with $250,000 worth of stock options that will vest over the next 5 years.

What many people fail to take into account, is that once a person has a certain amount of money and earning power, what s/he chooses to do with that money is not guided solely by asking "what is the best way to invest it." A prudent amount is saved/invested and a certain amount is spent on things that enhance one's quality of life.

seg, I am not against buying a home. It's a question of timing.
As for the people expected to get large bonuses, many probably own their own home already. It's just a matter of whether they will upgrade to something bigger/better this time... The behavior that contributed to the bubble in the city.

It's pretty much a given that much of the expected bonus will not be in cash and likely vest over time. The cash portion will still be nice, but I personally won't be expecting many of that cash to be used to invest in real estate in this city, maybe in other cities that have seen much more significant declines. Does anyone actually believe that NYC RE prices would go up 10% within the next 3 years??? I can't believe that these people can't find a better investment than that.

Of course some will buy a home with their bonus if they find something they like and they can agree on a price with the sellers. However, some will also rather just sit on the cash than to buy a place at the current price levels.

Timing is everything. I think the time now is right on certain segments of the NY RE markets. There are many deals out there to be made. You just have to be actively looking.

Doomsday? Believing that prices will revert to something remotely consistent with rents and incomes is doomsday? I think it's a very positive, cheerful belief. Albeit one that has some negative implications, sort of like how the increase in prices had some negative implications.

This bear market has been averaging about 1000 deals a month in Manhattan for 6 months now without much of a fluctuation and without much help from Wall Street bonuses.

How much of the inventory is:

over a year old
priced for the 07 world
a new undersold condo with an uncertain future
dark, nasty and unsellable in any market

I think many people here have forgotten what a normal real estate market looks like.

yet ... the last 30 days of recorded sales is 650.

in regards to bonuses, its the allocation of cash vs deferred/restricted stock vs roe shares deferred vs potential clawbacks..those with a set compensation clause in employment contract and are looking to buy on that, is different story.

But you will see more bonuses paid out with less cash!

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/10/euphoria_or_caution_over_upcom.html

discussed 7 weeks ago...

and recent news:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agiYbRe3XCLY&pos=3

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B30S920091204

and BAC announced 1.8Bln in annual compensation, most of which will be restricted stock. Cant find link from earlier in week

Buy now or be priced out forever!

6 months sales figure is 6237, which is significant volume given the circumstances. What's more telling I think is the steady rate at which the inventory continues to be absorbed. Remember this inventory was being eaten up while we were still posting 500-600k monthly job losses. With better news (read: less bleak) coming out about employment and the economy, coupled with additional pressure for banks to free up lending to qualified buyers, I tend to lean towards more of an optimistic outlook. Not out of the woods by any stretch but you have to look back on the last 6 months and say to yourself what's it going to take for w67thstreet to realize his 500psf wet dream. It's crazy and it flies in the face of common sense, but it's happening. Face it, the only expert here is the raw data and it's not playing nice with the bears right now.

I don't think we can count on the "bonus bounce" brokers expected in past years. UD points out some solid reasons, but I also think there will be psychological reasons i-bankers wont be running in the streets to buy, buy, buy...

There is always a decline in inventory between Thanksgiving and New Year's day. I will pop back up again in 2010. And even if it's fallen, it's still at twice the level it was 2 years ago at this time.

People here seem not to realize that the Manhattan real estate market is, in fact, very small, with the long-term average being about 8,000 apartments PER YEAR. $500 psf for prime Manhattan may be a "wet dream," to use a phrase, but $700 - $800 isn't, and that's down 30% - 40% from current levels.

Let us not forget the vast amount of shadow (unlisted) inventory, and the increasing supply of rentals out there. Competition is tough.

If a shirt I like costs at Paul Smith is a bit pricey (say 30% over-valued), and it may go on sale at the end of the season for 25-30% less, I can wait or buy it now since I have the money to give me the choice. Of course, if I buy it now perhaps I can't get something else I'd like right away or may have to compromise on another expenditure so that I could stay within my shopping budget. If I wait to buy my shirt, I do however run the risk that my size may not be available at the sale and I will have gone 2-3 months without it during which time I'd really like to have worn it to a couple of parties and dinners. After all, I could wear my old shirts, or I could go to J.Crew and get a perfectly serviceable but not quite-as-nice alternative and less expensive shirt...after all--they are both shirts.

Were Stevehjx and I invited to the same dinner party during that time before the sale (doubtful, but let's assume), I strongly suspect I'd be wearing the shirt I liked from Paul Smith and he'd be wearing, well...not the shirt from Paul Smith.

To each his own.

can you really compare purchasing habits for an item in the hundred of dollars (which by definition will have zero resale value) to an item in the hundreds of thousands or millions which has built into it an expectation of eventual resale? come on, that's beyond a stretch.

I think the analogy holds in terms of illustrating that reasonable buyers may have different mindsets and approaches to their money and how to live. There is more than one rational response to many situations. You wouldn't know that from 1/2 the posters on Streeteasy. Steve and his moronic "buy now or be priced out forever". I mean seriously. Who says things like that? He sets up strawmen, knocks them down and smugly applauds himself. It's tiring.

He, among others, just continue to insist that buying now is right for no one and is categorically irrational, that any good numbers are really bad, and the market is always really worse than it appears, and that renting is just as good with no quality of life compromises, and life should be put on hold to maximize one's net worth at death, blah blah blech. Say something new or at least moderate the rhetoric.

stevejhx - I don't think anybody wants or expects to see inventory levels at what they were 2 years ago. If average absorption is 8000 units per year then it seems we are right on track for an average year, deal wise. And if we are back on track with nominal absorption rates why is it so difficult to accept prices leveling off? The shadow inventory and its effect on what will happen in the future is a question mark but if avg new construction condos are priced at a 30% premium to other properties on the market today my guess is they will bear the brunt of any pain down the road.

kylewest - you big design snob. If I came to your party with my Eddie Bauer plaid would you let me in and pretend not to know me?

kylewest - you big design snob. If I came to your party with my Eddie Bauer plaid would you let me in and pretend not to know me?

not sure why I stuttered there...

"Who says things like that?"

Realtors.

spinnaker, unlike kylewest's shirt example (I don't know who Paul Smith is, so I'm at a loss), real estate is not a commodity, its not a consumable (that is, it doesn't disappear after use), its price doesn't fluctuate rapidly over time, and buying (as opposed to renting) has a very high barrier to entry. Temporary fluctuations in inventories and/or prices therefore mean very little. Real estate is cyclical, but the cycles are about 10-15 years. This thus-far 30% decline in values was very quick compared to the past so some intermediate leveling off is to be expected. But the long-term mean of prices to rents is 100% correlation in out-of-pocket expenses. Real estate has historically returned to mean for at least the past 400 years. There is no reason to think that now it won't.

snob? i all i said was 1 shirt from a decent shop. i thought i was being quite restrained. you can come to the party, but please don't let it be one of those flannel shirts or things with a pocket over each breast with flaps that button down. unless we're partying at a cabin in the woods somewhere. people pay a lot to live in this coop--we expect guests to dress accordingly.

lol...

I'm known as a bit of a trend setter. Of course it will be flannel, who doesn't wear flannel past labor day?

...and Kyle, your restrained rants on rationale for buying now are some of the most thoughtful on SE. I like you, even though you dress funny and decorate with names rather than objects.

Steve, if a RE cycle is 15 yrs as you say, and this one peaked in 2007, then the next nadir will be 2022. The only rational response to this is to wait until 2022 to buy? Life is too short. None of this can be looked at apart from one's own financial circumstances which matter as much, if not more than, where the RE market may be at a given point in one's life.

not to be a nit picker, but it would seem that assuming a perfect curve in your example, the time to buy would be 2014-2015. no reason to buy at the next peak, right?

KW, I said 10-15 years, and I didn't say to wait till the nadir, did I? A lot goes into a decision to buy a property, or at least it should. If you don't mind risking losing 40% of the price of your property, all of your equity and then some, buy whenever you want. There is a lot of gray between that and buying to flip.

Psul Smith is dreadful. I'd be in Thom Browne or Michael Bastian.

Good thread. I'm surprised no one has pointed out why the inventory has been coming down. It's not as much the result of sales as people de-listing their properties. If you look at the charts on UD for new listings vs. contracts signed, the number of new listings has always been higher than contracts signed for the past six months. The key question is: will this inventory being taken off the market come back anytime soon? If it does, I think there will be downward pressure on prices.

thoth - You ain't saying anything new. People with stars in their eyes can list and de-list all day long, it's market chaff. Sales are real and the end result of offering a quality product at a market price.

The people who de-listed for the summer were supposed to flood back after Labor Day. What we saw was a nothing more than a blip followed by the same downward trajectory we have been watching since early spring.

there are a lot of fair points made by Kyle. and those on the other side. Logically I am with the bears, but I agree with Kyle that the raw data rules. But nobody can speak authoritatively here until new buildings sell out and most inventory is priced in accordance with recent comparable closed sales...and neither of those things are happening.

30 is right about the impact of bonuses. In the boom years people sitting on a trading floor who suddenly have a few hundred thousand or whatever extra in the bank tend to think of it as funny money, and just go buy stuff like cars, condos, whatever. But so many of them are unemployed now that there is no way the bonus wave will have the impact this year as in the past. Also, non-cash bonuses are like hypo-money because don't vest for a few years, and become a big issue to negotiate when you switch jobs and forfeit it.

A friend who bought at the peak in April 2007 literally told me at the time that he needed to get on the re bandwagon and start getting that apartment appreciation or he would never be able to buy a really nice place in the future. He didn't want to repeat his experience of his first decade in NYC when he missed out on all that appreciation. I don't think that mindset -- buy now or forever be priced out - was uncommon.

i also think that it is worth repeating that the people posting here (on both sides of the issue) are a tiny minority of the market. i still think that the majority of people (those not obsessed as many here are) in manhattan don't realize what is happening in the market yet.

Here are Miller Samuels' absorption rate data:

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1259678207sPYKL&Record=3

Doesn't look so good.

Moreover, that "10 month average" is misleading - it should also be broken down by market segment. If it were I think you'd see the absorption rate at the low end - which should be substantially faster than at the high end - is far, far worse than indicated.

And if the median were used instead of the mean, it would look worse still.

CC - That seems to be anecdotally true at least when T talk to other people who live here. It still puzzles me who the hell is buying now with such asymetrrical risk, in such an obviously abnormal market condition (again, most or tons of inventory still priced precrash, unsold new buildings). Rhino says people with cash from the boom years. I don't know.

it has been 20 years since we had a serious downturn in nyc real estate. its not reasonable to think that 14 months is enough time to dispel 20 years of accumulated experience. the mainstream media is not presenting real information nor is the government. so, 8,000 people or so have bought apartments in the last 8 months---at what is clearly 20-30% less than they would have paid a year earlier.

not that great a leap to see how they think they got a deal.

..THE Market here is gripped in euphoria about the action in another Market ..Named of course WALL Street.. Stocks are on an unprecedented move Higher for NINE Months ..Secondly BEN is keeping the system SWIMMING in Cheap MOney ..Third ..DEFICIT Spending reached 170 BILLION a month recently..

CAN EACH OF THESE THREE LAST TOGETHER FOREVER>> Happy CHOPPING !!!

-burp-

the mkt's got "I'm gonna sell into Crazy bonus-itus" Nuthing more nuthing less....

-burp- Stephanied dog is coming back up and not in a good way....

you may want to know some of my data that is not public yet - these are STATE OF THE MARKET trends so when you see signed contracts and taken off market, there is a time tag attached to the metrics last status update - still tweaking data and like 6-7 weeks to launch and much more to come:

* Active Inventory: 8594 (down from around 11,100 or so in March-April)
* Signed contracts: 4162 (up from 2900 in March; down from 7000 or so in June 2008)
* Taken Off Market: 8922 (down from 13,352 or so in April; up from 5500 or so in June 2008)
* Days On Market Trend: 161 (up from 120 days on market in July)

is signed contracts a snapshot in time, kind of like a pending sales number?

what time period does taken off market cover?

thanks. very interesting.

I find it interesting that 35 closings of condos and coops over $5M have occured in the past 60 days. Even if some of those signed a year or more ago, I think it shows confidence in the market.

um Josh, I know you're a pro and everything but with the inventory of 5M+ properties sitting at 1000 or so, the current absorption rate means almost 6 years of inventory. Not so pretty.

80% closing with gun to head. Yep execllent bull case. Flmao.

Now I eat your dog, Josh

I stand to be corrected, but I feel like above a certain number - say 2.5mm (?)- you are getting into people with a certain level of wealth that may make them different kinds of actors in the market. Does a movie star or someone with a huge networth paying 4mm really care if the market is up down or whatever? To some degree yes, I suppose, but I think it has to be somewhat different than a normal person who has a significant portion of their net worth (or some multiple of it!) at play. [I am making an assumption here that someone paying 4mm for an apartment is very wealthy...if they are not, then it is an excessive purchase].

yes, CC. I know taken off market is 270 days. After studying all the listings removed data that was the period of time we felt we should use for the window.

Hmm, not sure what contracts signed is set too. Will find out. We tested so many different time windows for so many metrics, that Im confused. Let me check in with my team and see what that is set to

here you go CC, time window for each metric.

Active - 30 days
Signed - 60
Off Market - 270
Days on Market - 60

nothing is set in stone yet by the way

so...for every closed sale, there is roughly one unit removed? that seems extraordinary.

seems about right.

You take off market, then re-list at market price and sell. Unless of course all those that were de-listed stayed that way.

"so...for every closed sale, there is roughly one unit removed? that seems extraordinary."

cc,,could you spell out what you mean, or where that comes from....i didn't follow that

not sure if i've got this right but....approximately 1,000 closings per month is the average over the last 6 months. UD says his time window is 9 months for off the market which was most recently 8922 or approximately 1,000 per month. i have no real context to evaluate this number other than it seems extraordinarily high (if i did it right). no way to know if those removals are people who were putting a toe in the water and not willing to go lower or will be back in the near future at a lower price.

Not that I have a vested interest one way or other, buster, but Paul Smith does not suck.

we will break it down when we launch the tools...you'll see alot! and methodology will be there.

the most concrete statement I can say about TAKEN OFF MARKET, from what I see, is that less sellers are removing their listings from the marketplace over the last few months. So what does that mean? For one, it tells me sellers are happy with the market conditions/traffic/actviity whatever you want to call it, and are choosing to leave the listing up for a bit longer. Certainly sell side behavior is bullish on the market. Thats how I read that state of the market metric.

Who is Paul Smith?

>> Not that I have a vested interest one way or other, buster, but Paul Smith does not suck.

Kyle writes a subtle pun. :)

Ha, Kyle - I know you are a man of style by the GV buildings you love. I am not a Paul Smith fan, not because of the brand in particular, but because the british re-invasion died a few years ago. The brits reintroduced some interesting trends into the American wardrobe, but the wide collars and bold stripes got obnoxious and stale rather quickly. If you enjoy quality that retains some british ideals, I would highly recommend Hilditch & Key - they embrace quality without any of the horrid design trends that plague Thomas Pink, Paul Smith etc. Of course, I still favor Thom Browne (without the ridiculously short pants natch), because I adore uber-prep and 50s accounting geek. To each his own. Anyone in anything are welcome at my parties. No judgment.

Oh. I judge, buster. I judge!

"can you really compare purchasing habits for an item in the hundred of dollars (which by definition will have zero resale value) to an item in the hundreds of thousands or millions which has built into it an expectation of eventual resale? come on, that's beyond a stretch."

yes, this is all quite a stretch. methinks somebody just really, really wants apartment prices to go up, logic be damned.

as long as they keep adding new "drug" to the market (tarp money and whatever else) our tax money will go to finance overpriced real estate, cars and you name it.
no other explanation for me

so, when it stops, you're predicting another fall?

somewhereelse: I couldn't care less if prices go up. I got in the market 21 years ago, cashed out in '07 and traded up--basically swapped assets and came out with bigger nicer apt for lower monthlies by using 430% profit on initial purchase in late 80s, and am still in it for the long run. I'm not "selling" anything on here. But from the tone and vehemence of some posters, you can be pretty sure they want/need for prices to go down and they are pissed and frustrated they haven't come down enough for them to get what they really want. It's as if some on here think if they post negative links all day long they'll actually impact the market as if the market cares about this forum.

FLMAO. kyle late 80's 430% return... and you think you are on the "winner" ledger and piss on us lowlives?

FYI, mid 90's RE investor, 1000% asset app and 400% cash on cash return since then... and no I haven't sold...

wow 67, you're my hero! BTW hows the commercial LL biz these days?

Is that some kind of inferiority complex you're developing? "Us lowlives" ?

Has the Citi Habitats Nov-09 rental report been discussed anywhere yet? They report that the overall Manhattan vacancy rate is now DOWN year-on-year. The YoY number is seasonally-neutral by definition. Thoughts/implications? Fraudulent data?

What color shirt?

>>Were Stevehjx and I invited to the same dinner party during that time before the sale (doubtful, but let's assume), I strongly suspect I'd be wearing the shirt I liked from Paul Smith and he'd be wearing, well...not the shirt from Paul Smith.<<

My husband bought a Paul Smith shirt for our wedding. Cost more than my dress :-b

w67: you have a strange sense of humor if my post made you "F" LMAO. Good for you though. Just about nothing on here actually makes me "lmao"--certainly not with the regularity you seem to find yourself hysterical. But my post really cracked you up that much? I don't really get that. Somewherelse suggested I had some ulterior motive in wanting prices to rise. Point is it doesn't affect me one way or the other any more than other NYers to the extent the current RE market hurts tax revenues. Yes, I've made enough in NYC RE to be able to live a happy life in NYC--and I'm sure many other people have made a lot more which is nice for them, too. Please don't call yourself a "lowlife." If you feel blue, go stand in front of a mirror, give yourself a BIG hug, and say, "I love you--you are a valuable person." I hear such affirmations work--at least in CA and among the Lifespring crowd.

seg - Citi Habitats report discussed here: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/16848-for-everyone-who-thinks-they-are-going-to-continue-to-push-for-more-rental-concessions

KYLE: "Not that I have a vested interest one way or other, buster, but Paul Smith does not suck."

NIXON: " I am not a crook."

Kylewest. My apologizes. My wife asked me to tone down the f bomb too so I guess I owe you an apology also. Now do I get online make up sex?

"There is more than one rational response to many situations. You wouldn't know that from 1/2 the posters on Streeteasy. Steve and his moronic "buy now or be priced out forever". I mean seriously. Who says things like that? He sets up strawmen, knocks them down and smugly applauds himself. It's tiring."

kyle, couldn't agree more. I would have put good money on somewhereelse (one of the worst offenders of the kind of pathology you described) knee-jerking into essentially calling you a bull, but alas he beat me to the punch, even though there was nothing in any of your posts calling for increased prices or the need for others to "buy now." But getting back to the inventory, I think the most telling trend so far is the number of delistings that have apparently not come back on yet. It's hard to know how many were serious about selling or just fear-induced listings (and I don't think many people know this, as much as some might like to think they do), but one way or the other, it'll have a pretty significant impact on where we go from here.

Breaking news, Goldman not giving out any cash this year. Good luck bulls.

Article references top executives

This Goldman policy applies to only the firm's top 30 executives. Those 30 get restricted stock locked up for 5 years. Everyone else is eligible for (some) cash bonus, based on my reading. How much cash vs. stock must be a matter of debate.

Public information:
GS Revenues through Q3: $35.6 billion
GS Compensation/benefits accrual through Q3: $16.7 billion
Total employees: 31,700
Average compensation accrual per employee: $527,192 (and only going up with Q4 added)

Not every employee is based in New York, but a lot of them are. There'll be some cash paid out, don't worry.

tick, tick, tick

Good luck bulls. Keep telling yourselves the blip is over.

"Steve and his moronic "buy now or be priced out forever". I mean seriously. Who says things like that? He sets up strawmen, knocks them down and smugly applauds himself. It's tiring."

1) Its not a strawman if someone actually says it
2) Is a bull REALLY complaining about strawmen. Make me laugh. This board is FILLED with bulls strawmen.... the arguments about how bears are wrong if we don't go down 70%... that its not the end of the world, so bulls are right.

Pot, meet kettle...

or worse, I can't even count the number of bulls who told me "you think XXX", and then proceed to argue that... when I've said the exact opposite.

Bulls should not be throwing stones...

"1) Its not a strawman if someone actually says it"

Go ahead, name the offenders then. I think the number of people who actually said "Buy now or be priced out forever" is way smaller than you think. Either way, it is and was such an obviously dumb statement to make, that I don't see how people derive such pleasure from mindlessly mocking it over and over, as if it were still funny or somehow ego-boosting. Move on.

"2) Is a bull REALLY complaining about strawmen. Make me laugh."

As I said earlier, entirely predictable that you'd call kylewest a "bull." You've done this time and again, but on what basis? You're the king of strawmen and yet pass the buck at every turn. If there were any sense of accountability on this board, I don't think it'd be so pretty for you.

somewherelse: it fascinates me (just a little) that you think I'm a bull. Curious if there is one especially bullish statement on mine you can find anywhere on here. I personally think I'm neither bull nor bear. I've a long hx on here of being particularly down on buying into new construction, I've posted on the difficulties of negotiating with unreasonable sellers, I've been extremely wary of supposed "up and coming" areas, apartments with weird layouts, the dangers of units with high maintenance, etc.

On the other hand, I think I'm in pretty solid company when posting that certain areas of Manhattan are much less likely to be hit as hard as others in a downturn (not exactly a novel idea that location really is almost everything), that if buying fits your financial goals and means it may be a perfectly rational choice regardless of the state of the market, that owned apartments can IMO be made much nicer than rentals and greatly enhance the quality of one's life, and if you have been in the market a long time and simply want to "swap assets" and you are staying in the market then current conditions may matter to you much less in terms of buying and selling.

So what causes you to say I'm a bull? Maybe we just have different understandings of what "bull" means. For example, I think the term applies to you more than me--or at least to much of what you post.

' I think the number of people who actually said "Buy now or be priced out forever" is way smaller than you think. '

Realtors who said those exact words? Yes, probably not that high. But realtors who's posts invariably said something like "I have 9 agents working for me, and all 12 of them are busy. We have 16 listings right now, and 19 of those are in contract. So despite all the doomsday talk now that [Lehman collapsed/Bear collapsed/AIG was bailed out/the Dow is down 60%/unemployment is 10%/whatever....], all I know is, my 11 brokers are busier than ever!". Well, there's been a whole BUNCH of realt-whores using that tone. Or, some variant of "Prices are rising! It's a good time to buy!...prices are falling! It's a good time to buy! BUY! BUY! BUY!".

"So what causes you to say I'm a bull? Maybe we just have different understandings of what "bull" means. For example, I think the term applies to you more than me--or at least to much of what you post."

I would have to agree kw, it is difficult to take nyc10022 seriously these days.

I think most all brokers have used some variant meant to induce fear in a buyer who is considering waiting. Add into this, brokers who have said the market has always gone up over time (vague/false). Add to this, brokers who have admitted it has fallen in the past, but not by much and not for long.

"...the market has always gone up over time (vague/false)"

I wonder what type of buying and selling of real estate you have done over the years to arrive at this conclusion.

That's the problem with you and others. If you didn't experience it, it didn't happen. That is what books are for...learn the history some time. There have been some very sad sad entry points.

Hey don't blame the world because you got your ass handed to you on a bad deal. Clearly you are in the minority while the vast majority can attribute their financial security to a long term commitment to home ownership. You're a bigger fool than I thought if you can't recognize this.

No sorry, I didn't buy a Manhattan coop in 1987. I was in eighth grade in 1987 and you sound like a broker. No one owes their security to a poorly timed home purchase. Your statement is particularly stupid in the current context.

um sure little Rhino.. whatever. Go back to your Nintendo I guess.

Right. You have the Conventional wisdom down pat. I am a child but you've managed to ignore the whole financial crisis. Many owe their stabilty to not buying.

"Realtors who said those exact words? Yes, probably not that high. But realtors who's posts invariably said something like "I have 9 agents working for me, and all 12 of them are busy. We have 16 listings right now, and 19 of those are in contract. So despite all the doomsday talk now that [Lehman collapsed/Bear collapsed/AIG was bailed out/the Dow is down 60%/unemployment is 10%/whatever....], all I know is, my 11 brokers are busier than ever!". Well, there's been a whole BUNCH of realt-whores using that tone. Or, some variant of "Prices are rising! It's a good time to buy!...prices are falling! It's a good time to buy! BUY! BUY! BUY!"."

Hugh_G, I'm glad someone else recognizes the *slight* exaggeration that goes on. You're certainly right that more than a few brokers said things very similar to what you wrote, but I hardly see it as something worth getting upset over, or worthy of mocking ad nauseum now that business has slowed down considerably. It's clearly part of the system, so I don't get the childish kvetching over it - it's all fairly inconsequential unless you somehow believe that all of this is to blame for people taking on loads of bad mortgages (I would point more towards basic personal responsibility and due diligence).

Kyle - Good points. And I would recommend the Paul Smith shirt, too...big fan.

Buster - Good stuff and I agree...to each their own.

But most importantly, Steve, this should help you out:

http://www.paulsmith.co.uk/

Come on, you have all this cash on hand from paying less rent, go out this weekend and get yourself a nice Paul Smith shirt and stop by Thom Browne, too (give Buster his due). Spend some money on yourself and help out our economy, too.