jan 2011 predictions?

100% down another 10% at least

What does your figure include or disclude?

Are your figures south of 96th st?

Real estate for sale
in Manhattan
We found 3,641 listings with 2 bedrooms
Median price: $1,375,000 Median size: 1,273 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,094
Information on Manhattan

The number on the front page is for condos only.

maly
Nice catch, I missed that.

The fine print:

Medians for listings from past 60 days from StreetEasy data. Excludes some extraordinary properties. No representation is made as to the accuracy of this data.

I understand it is for condos only.
It is not my figure but SE's most apparent metric.
It is not precise and definitely not all encompassing.
Was solely chosen for simplicity's sake.

"I'm sure this metric will have many detractors but to make it simple lets use the price psf listed on the SE main page for 2br condos..."
the word condos appears in the op

Yes moxie, acknowledged already.
And also keep in mind these are asking prices.

its a particularly distorted metric bec so many of these condos have absurd asks.....so i guess we would be guessing the change in relative absurdity...

Forget 2011. there are much more relevant data to NYC re.
1)When does fed stop 0%
2) what happens when new buyer tax credit dries up?
3) when does mkt to mkt apply to banks holding tons of helocs, and under morts?
4) will spring summer 10' be another leg down?
5) when does govt stop being 100% of all new debt origination?
6) when does rent stop droppping?
7) when does 3.5% down financings dry up?

Sorry moxie, but can't get you a $psf until at least 3 or 4 items from above become clear. It's like wanting to know your sat score bf you've even taken one practice exam.

67, I know you love Lincoln Towers, the lobbies and the beautiful people, the delicate cadence of the canes, the low hum of the wheelchairs, the zippy uniforms of the doormen. So just chart out the prices of studioes there over the next twelve months...It's the most liquid market we can find.

"its a particularly distorted metric bec so many of these condos have absurd asks.....so i guess we would be guessing the change in relative absurdity..."

Haha...nice one!

I'm always amused by the dearth of SEers who don't answer the question! Like politicians.

Let me break with tradition.

30%/35%/25%/10%

Should read:

I'm always amused by the dearth of SEers who answer the question! Like politicians.

As i submitted in the op we all know this metric can be torn apart. It is of course skewed, incomplete and absurd. It will most likely be similarly skewed, incomplete and absurd 10 1/2 mos from now.
It was chosen as implied for simplicity's sake. Feel free to submit a better gauge. The intent was to choose a figure provided by a 3rd party(SE) that could not be engineered to fit your projection.

As for w67 remarks. I could not agree more. I'm sure these data points are more relevant and hard to predict. Therefore anyone who would answer with percentages of 100/0/0/0 or 0/0/0/100 is vastly underestimating the the possible outcomes.

and thanks topper...was kind of my point when i opened the thread with the deferential statement...
"I'm sure this metric will have many detractors but to make it simple lets use the price psf listed on the SE main page for 2br condos"

The greater the uncertainty the greater the dispersion. I'm a bear. But I do know that a whole lot of things could break in ways that I don't expect. Hence, the dispersion rather than single point.

Stochastic analysis for long term forecasts relies upon forecasts which include such dispersions (or forecast return distributions). They can be normal distributions, log normal distributions, etc.

Ultimately we have to make decisions about future outlooks - the better the uncertainties are expressed, the more useful the forecasts. It ain't easy - but it's still useful.

30% / 50% / 20% / 0%

Ok, it looks like the meta-argument is well covered.
My answer to your question: 90% certain this average will be down 8% or more by next January. Not saying the sale prices will be down 8%, but the asking should be relatively closer to sale prices.

up 10 -20 percent

nice job pjc you are 1 of 3 to pass reading comprehension.

format is ?/?/?/?

otherwise your projection is 0/0/0/100 or 100/0/0/0

or 0/100/0/0
0/0/100/0

15/50/30/5

20/30/40/10.

50%/50%/0%/0%

33/34/33/0

ps, I am still owed shakeshack for saying the DOW would be over 10k at the end of last year.

who was in on the bet? was it p09, that cheap bastard?

call them on it. if you haven't stepped up and demanded payment, if payment was indeed due, you've got no right to complain.

lots of people betting in all directions, only thought about it looking at this prediction. There was no deadline for demanding payment, so notice is now served.

you really need to set the terms. is your notice now served for asking prices going forward for 2/2 condos?

I never bet on equities. I did however win the bet on the day that inventory crossed 10,000. Thank you very much!

80%/20%/0%/0%

35/35/25/05

60/35/5/0 ... NYC city is still overvalued - relative to 2000 levels - relative to other US cities + high income buyers will be way more conservative in their future income forecast than they used to. we might see a small px increase in Q1 as bonuses are being paid but i dont think it will be sustained.

Moxieland somehow I doubt that you'd put your $20 to my $1 that we will fall 10% or more
by 2011....or that you'd put $6 against my $1 that we will not rise by 10%. I think ones
beliefs are crystallized by a conceptual bet.

I'll say -10% or worse is 60%. 10%+ is a 10% probability. The middle two categories are a
waste of discussion.

What percentage of SE readers actually ubderstand the metric on the first page? How many will understand it in January 2011? Give your answers in multiples of the square root.

What?

rhino, it's ASKING price for 2/2 condos.

Yeah thats a pretty bad metric to base anything on. In any event, I defy Moxieland to actually make a 20 to 1 market that real estate does not fall 10% or more.... I can't see how anyone could straight faced put less than a 30% probability of that.

60% of the time, works every time. - Anchorman

well first of all I find it peculiar that you are upset with my predictions as they are nothing more than conjecture. secondly i find it more peculiar that your upset i gave 10% down a 5% chance of happening when you gave 10% up a 10% chance of happening? lastly the two categories which you say are useless and which by your math gave a 1 in 3 chance of happening is where you will find the lion share of people's predictions..personally i think being "stuck in the mud" and not moving drastically in either direction is the most likely outcome as do
Topper-60%, PJC-70%, ionanda-80%, aboutready-70%,wanderer-67%,jimstreeteasy-60% and myself-80%

moxie, it really is just a prediction of what one thinks the composition of the condo market will be at that time. i'm in the 70% group, and i firmly believed sales prices will fall. coop prices would have been a metric much more likely to reflect market forces, and even there you'd find significant variation likely depending on size, unless the gov't actually removes its life support for the conforming loan market.

Okay great, not moving much is a popular answer. Its actually such a consensus that in this instance I would say its enough of a consensus to be wrong. Its too comfortable a prediction.

What I do doubt, is that you'd actually make a real bet that mathematically reflects only a 5% chance of a 10% or greater decline. Would you actually bet $100 on it, to lose $2000? I mean, would you agree it was a hastily made probability designation? I means its foolish. Come on.

would i make a bet? of course not. i also don't hit the roulette wheel and pick a number when i go to vegas. i tend to not place long shot bets. once again i will point out that you seem flummoxed by me giving -10% or more only a 5% chance but don't see the irony in you saying +10% has a 10% chance of happening? I gave the middle ranges an 80% chance of happening and yes i would bet 8$ to win 10$.

So far:

10/13 think prices will increase
2/13 think prices will decline
1/13 thinks it's 50/50

5/13 thinks there's at least a 50% chance of a 10% decline
1/13 thinks there's at least a 50% chance of a 10% increase

8/13 thinks there's at least a 50% chance that it would be /-9% range

Low VAR but wathc out for the tail risk

correction for last line above: 8/13 thinks there's at least a 50% chance that it would be plus/minus 9% range

If it were an honest prediction, you would make a bet. I am not sure why you find irony in the fact that I assign a 1 in 10 that prices could rise 10% in two years. Do people typically discount completely other peoples opinions or the probability that they may be wrong? What would you expect, zero?

ar,
i respectfully submit a re jiggering of your numbers if you "firmly believe sales prices will fall"
20/30/40/10 is a 50% chance of going up and a 50% of going down

i expect closing prices to fall. i expect new development units listed to increase, skewing asking prices upwards.

Sorry i messed up before: Here's the full corrected post.

So far:

10/13 think prices will decline
2/13 think prices will increase
1/13 thinks it's 50/50

5/13 thinks there's at least a 50% chance of a 10% decline
1/13 thinks there's at least a 50% chance of a 10% increase

8/13 thinks there's at least a 50% chance that it would be plus/minus 9% range

The market participants are RIDICULOUSLY underestimating volatility. I am taking action on a 10%+ decline ...and if you are going to sell it to me this cheap, I'll take action on a 10%+ move up as well.

I would be willing to bet against a 10%+ move up as well.

If you give me 10 to 1 odds...I will take your bet.

volatility doesn't seem like the right word for sticky, illiquid re...

I am clearly a dishonest fool...I am obviously the one who is "discount(ing) completely other peoples opinions or the probability that they may be wrong"

In Jan 2011 somewherelse aka eddiewilson aka nyc10022 will have yet again changed his screen name to hidefro his previous comments will still work for someone else will still live in an apartment owned by someone else and will still not have made any significant contribution to the world but will continue to post on this board like he actually knows something and will call all the people who actually own and have accomishments dumb

rhino, I would probably be willing to give you 5 to 1, though I agree that 10 to 1 is probably more fair.

"i expect closing prices to fall. i expect new development units listed to increase, skewing asking prices upwards."

AR, impressive that you analyzed it to that extent.

Fitzy, give us your prediction! I'm curious where you think thing'll line up.

Rhino, I'd consider giving you 4 to 6 on a decline of more than 10%.

20/45/25/10

What am I talking about? The economy is about to erupt! Stand back...it's gonna be a big one!

HA!

2%/91%/6%/1%
but watch that two percent. We're talking Richter scale price differential.

It's tough and cool to say you're 98 percent sure of something but it's total bullshit. There is more than a two percent chance that this market falls 40 percent.

t's tough and cool to say you're 98 percent sure of something but it's total bullshit. There is more than a two percent chance that this market falls 40 percent.

I have no divinity on the future. Everything is conjecture. But if I were to prognosticate I view a 2%/91%/6%/1% distribution as a good distribution of probability.

Rhino, how high do you think the chance of a 40%+ drop is? What kind of odds do would you be willing to bet at?

I'd make that bet for say the 50 to 1 that someone just suggested is the chance of a 10 percent decline.

OK!

I'll take you up on that bet (even though I think you have a decent chance of being right - the odds you offer are just silly.)

I'd be delighted to put up $10 on the bet. (Would pay off $500 if you're wrong.)

Who would be so stupid? I am offering the other way. And I am arbing with the fool who thinks there's only a 10 percent chance of down 10 percent or more.

Street easy posters are most emphatic in their forecasts.

Topper's forecast was
30/35/25/10

so you would not be "arbing with the fool who thinks there's only a 10 percent chance of down 10 percent or more."

but as you so sagely put "Do people typically discount completely other peoples opinions or the probability that they may be wrong?"

I didn't understand why you accuse me of being inconsistent by putting 10% of my chips on the idea this was the bottom and by 2011 we'll bounce 10%.

Riversider offered that there is only a 2% chance of a 10% or greater drop. I will make that bet with him...And then I will allow someone to bet me at the same odds that we wont fall 40%.... I win between -10% and -40%.

I dont like your brackets or your measure... Lets call it 'the market'. I'd say there's a 1 in 20 chance interest rates explode and prices fall 40%. I'd say its 65% sure that we fall another 10%. I'd say 50/50 we fall another 20%. Of the 35% that says we don't fall 10%.... I'd say 10%/35% if the 10% rise.... And I guess I only put 25% on the idea that we will sit here + or - 10%. Therefore, I am buying the cheap vol that a lot of you seem to be selling. I am also buying puts from all you who as I see it think there is such a small chance of a 10% fall.. I mean to me I think its funny that you didn't even create any brackets past 10% down.

Alighty. On the basis of fed raising ir above 0 id say 6%down, on the basis of tax credit going away eliminating false prop for $500k to $1mm units, another 10% (cumulatively), of f'k it. Stick spaghetti on wall read the chkn innards readings with moxie format!

100/ if geitner personally approves every 0 down mortgage/ if every riverside drive unit sells at list/ if we all discover oil under our apts.

Flmao. I mean seriously does anyone believe after a 25% drop that somehow any force on this planet is gonna be able to put breaks on this thing. Furthermore if you look at th drop and prices of NYC re as a discounting mechanism, can anyone tell me how we get to 7% unemployment in NYC by 2011 or even 95% mortgage approval during 2010.

As much as I don't believe my posts are making NYC re drop, I do no believe any programs the govt has unleashed has done anything but give a momentary pause in the under $1mm mkt for 7 months upon which the lemmings have come out to grab their 2/3 bdrms bf the head fake banker bonus! Lmao.

Curious where are you making a 50/50 market? Also, what are the odds you would require to bet against someone betting against a 25% decline?

the format was already pretty spread by asking people to delineate btwn 4 probabilities...
the choice over 10% down of course is inclusive of all percentages over 10% down...i think it may have looked strange if the predictions were

5/5/10/15/15/15/15/10/5/2/3/0

no?

So how much would the bears price an option to buy your house at 10% under it's current value, which the caveat that it could only be exercised in two years? If the bearish situation is correct this option would not be economically exercisable in two years..

I think you need a -25% or more, -10% to -24%, -10% to +10% (ie flattish), and 10% or more +

Unless of course you dont accept the premise that risk is skewed down.

agreed moxie

the se condo asks things is so distorted by being ask, and by what is listed, as several have pointed

id like to see a thread on some fairly often traded condo (is any big enough to serve as a barometer...and also say lincoln tower coop studioes (currently asking 330 or so...when does the ask or close go below 300 folks)

agreed moxie

the se condo asks things is so distorted by being ask, and by what is listed, as several have pointed

id like to see a thread on some fairly often traded condo (is any big enough to serve as a barometer...and also say lincoln tower coop studioes (currently asking 330 or so...when does the ask or close go below 300 folks)

Right I wouldn't pay shit for the option to buy your apartment
10% down from here.

jim,
that is exactly why i submitted earlier...
"It was chosen as implied for simplicity's sake. Feel free to submit a better gauge. The intent was to choose a figure provided by a 3rd party(SE) that could not be engineered to fit your projection."
I don't know what the better barometer is? anybody?

Median sale price per sqft reported by Miller quarterly.

His chances of making it are 50/50, but there is only a 10% chance of that- Naked Gun.

where do you access that report Rhino? If it encompasses the whole market it is clearly superior.
does it break down sales by borough? I assume we find out jan 2011 prices in april 11'?

jim,
like the idea of a separate thread for a particular locale but that opens up the can of worms of one nabe vs another...i.e lincoln center is flat as ues falls ...so on

One of the sites I enjoy is:

intrade.com

which is a betting site for all sorts of things from politics to economics. In Ireland.

That said, I did manage to lose $100 out of my original $200 during the last presidential election.

Give the strong feelings many of us have about Manhattan real estate it might be worth seeing about getting a real bet going - and then we could watch how the pricing for various bets evolves over time.

I note that Miller Samuel still hasn't posted 4th quarter coop price per square foot on its web site.

(I know some of their written reports do show it - albeit on an aggregate basis - rather than for studios, one-bedrooms, two-bedrooms, etc.)

From the Broker's top Economist(he's notably one of the more bearish out there)
http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/11/real_estate/latest_home_prices/?postversion=2010021112

"This is the smallest price decline in over two years, with the most recent monthly data showing a broad stabilization in home prices," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Because buyers are taking on long-term fixed rate mortgages, avoiding adjustable-rate products, and trying to stay well within their budgets, the price recovery process appears durable."

40/45/10/5

Consensus is that we are close to bottom. Doesn't everyone say consensus is always wrong.

The contrarian is always right.

This is clearly an extremely finite sample but....close to bottom is not the consensus here

Sometimes the consensus is right.

Just over a year ago everyone was saying corporate bonds were a buy - particularly one a risk-adjusted basis. Corporate bonds did great in 2009.

Just over a year ago everyone said long government bonds were a sell - including a Barron's cover story. Long government bonds were awful investments in 2009.

Yes, contrarian investing is often successful - but not always.

That's bs actually. Momentum works better than contrarian investing. It's consensus that contrarian is best.

Contrarian investing does not simply mean going against the majority and taking an opposite view. It's buying and selling based on valuations combined with the recognition that the current valuation is incorrect and driven by fad or mass psychology. Contrarians are not usually correct, however if they are right when risk reward pay off are optimal for their viewpoint they make out huge. I'd consider the bearish bets on housing in 2005 to be contrarian. Very few people actually had the full understanding and most thought back in 2005 that if we had a problem it was more limited to subprime.

unfortunately only 13 projections match the format....the averages so far are

32/42/21/5

You should do a Each value should be mean. You'd get a better result.

I meant median.

What we have learned is the most popular category is down small. I'll take a page from the bullapologists and say...the consensus is for a soft landing from here....always wrong. Head for the hills.

As always Rhino an interesting interpretation... I see numbers that say 74% chance of a continued decline...and 1/3 over a 9% decline.
Riversider i'm sorry but too dense to understand your suggestion

I see that more people think we are going to fall 0-10% than any other category. I find the complacency after what has been a modest decline relative to an insane run-up....curious.