NY Prices not crashing yet..

what do you mean "not yet"? They already crashed. Its past tense.

You are right of course, though the cassandras must be disappointed it's not down another 40% this year.

We had a severe correction. Florida, California, Michigan & Nevada crashed.

over 20%? thats not just a correction.

We're dealing with semantics, but I'd say 20% is not a crash, severe bear market yes. 40-50+% is crash.
None of this makes you feel any better if you happen to have been someone over-leveraged to real estate and seen their equity wiped out.

The remainder of the crash is coming. Incomes would have to grow by 20%+ per year to offset the 20%+ annual increase in rates (ie from 5% to 6%, 6% to 7%, etc) which is pretty close to impossible unless we have hyper-inflation. No one can argue with that math using logic.

I look forward to earning something receiving receiving actual interest on my savings...

> but I'd say 20% is not a crash, severe bear market yes

OK, I'm fine if we just want to say "severe bear market" but note that investopedia says 20%, and some other sources say "double digit quickly". We had both. More important, it was the biggest decline since the great depression, no? Pretty crashy to me.

Black Monday was a 22.61%, btw...

but, as I said, "severe bear market", I'll take that. Someone finally admitted the bears were right!

> I look forward to earning something receiving receiving actual interest on my savings...

Totally! I used to get such joy from seeing that money just grow regularly, even if inflation ate a lot of it. Just seemed so powerful.

So this is your victory dance somewhereelse? I'm seeing a lot of past tense popping up lately, and to that your telling sniff at an overpriced condo today and I say we have a new conversion to announce at the next meeting.

Dust off that old Queen tune Truth.

Funny, I never saw people going around with signs that nyc real estate would decline 20%. It's bad but survivable. In the early 70's we had back to back stock market declines of around 50% two years in a row.

NYC10013,

On the other hand you have inflation eating away at your debt.

At 4% annual inflation you owe 75% of your mortgage after 7 years in future dollars
At 5% annual inflation you owe 70% of your mortgage after 7 years in future dollars
At 6% annual inflation you owe 65% of your mortgage after 7 years in future dollars

Although we're seeing deflation in the short term its only a matter of time until inflation kicks in. The chances are that it'll be a lot higher than the 4% average that we've gotten used to. Inflation is the debtor's best friend.

Here is a link to historical year end Dow jones quotes.
http://www.nyse.tv/dow-jones-industrial-average-history-djia.htm
Please point out the two years in a row where we had 50% declines.

spinnaker: Uh, I must be a little slow today. Which Queen tune?

You're a little slow and I'm a little obtuse.

Are you ready, Are you ready for this
Are you hanging on the edge of your seat
Out of the doorway the bullets rip
To the sound of the beat

Another one bites the dust

Oh, spinny. Obtuse. But, we love a good sing-along.

Don't look now boys and girls, but we will all look back at the July 4th weekend 2010 as the last retreat - it is now full steam ahead. Oil leak fixed. Europe fixed. Earnings bonanza. Buy yesterday or be priced out forever.

> So this is your victory dance somewhereelse?

Nah, the dancing was a year ago. This is just correcting a mistake.

> I'm seeing a lot of past tense popping up lately,

Well, I'm seeing a lot of folks who seem to have completely missed reality, 2 today alone.

> and to that your telling sniff at an overpriced condo today and I say we have a new conversion to
> announce at the next meeting.

Hey, if the numbers get there, I'll convert. I've said that in the past, but waaaaay to many rationalizers have called me permabear or whatever to cover up their own fears. I've been told that I've said one should never buy (nope, said the opposite), been told I said 70% decline (nope), 50% decline (nope) and lots of other fun things. All of it obscuring the actual truth.

> Funny, I never saw people going around with signs that nyc real estate would decline 20%.

Yeah, this time around, we posted on message boards instead.

> On the other hand you have inflation eating away at your debt.

Of course, thats part of what you're paying interest for. When rates aren't at historical lows, that feels AWFUL different. Your debt goes down, but you still end up paying several times purchase price.

Given the climate, Investment properties make no sense, nor does buying more house than one needs or buying with short term time horizons, but if you will be there for some time, the rent vs buy analysis works out and you aren't overly leveraged, I say buying after a 20% drop with worry and low rates is better than buying in a bullish environment.

> Of course, thats part of what you're paying interest for. When rates aren't at historical lows, that feels AWFUL different. Your debt goes down, but you still end up paying several times purchase price.

As far as cash flow goes the mortgage payments are fixed. The longer you hold on to the property the less expensive the payments become since they're not inflation adjusted.

The bears were predicting 50%. A crash. 20% does not make them right. And current prices are less than 20% down.

The Bears were predicting apocalypse. At least in NY we did not see that.
Whether you favor or don't administration policies have been very favorable to banking and finance which is a NYC source of strength. If your purchase makes sense in a flat real estate market, you may want to wade in.

Again, the crash isn't over yet. Anyone who thinks it is is extremely naive about what moves real estate prices and the current state of the economy.

Hey riversider...please let us know which two years in a row in the 70's the dow declined by 50%.

The operative word in the subject line is "yet".

And in other news, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead ...

While you're at it, please explain the difference between a decline, a crash and apocalypse.

"As far as cash flow goes the mortgage payments are fixed. The longer you hold on to the property the less expensive the payments become since they're not inflation adjusted."

Not sure how thats relevant to the point you quoted. Point is, particularly with high interest, you could be paying several times the original purchase price. Yes, its weighed down by the value of that money going down, but you're starting with paying several times out. Thats the cost of paying with cheaper money later... you're paying a LOT more.

"The bears were predicting 50%. A crash."

LIC is just lying to cover his tracks.

Its not true... vast majority pre-crash were predicting 25% or less. Hell, the 50% number didn't even start popping up until after the crash started.

"20% does not make them right."

Actually, it does, by definition. A bear in a bear market is, well, simply... right!

Creepy that LIC still misses this.

In the beginning of 1973, the Dow was around 1050 and by December 1974 the Dow was at about 575.

You know I did predict some time ago that the bull mantra would change from "there will be no decline" "no crash" "not gonna happen" etc.... to "well, it went down x%, but it didn't go down 5x%!" as some sort of evidence they weren't as off their rockers as they thought.

Point is, we crashed, bear market, etc. Anybody who claimed it wouldn't happen was wrong, whether or not we hit 30%, 40%, or 99%... or not...

The bears were predicting 50%. A crash."

LIC is just lying to cover his tracks.

Its not true... vast majority pre-crash were predicting 25% or less. Hell, the 50% number didn't even start popping up until after the crash started.

1/5, 1/4 , !/2

Very different risk exposures. Sorr SWE if I don't share your indifference to the magnitude.

somewhereelse you always were a bit of a flailer but today you are driving awfully close to the edge of flailing incoherence. BTW did you make an offer on the 1300psf condo yet?

What crash?
The only crash i'm seeing are the bears drowning in their own Armageddon prediction.

HA!~

"Creepy that LIC still misses this."

Creepy, that LIC.

Timmy and riversider

http://www.nyse.tv/dow-jones-industrial-average-history-djia.htm

Still looking for your numbers.

I see a lot of people who must have vested interests in the market taking every chance they get to tell people to buy now or miss the boat. The reality is that the global economy is still in a deleveraging and therefore deflationary environment that will probably take a couple/several more years to work through. NYC is no exception.

I see the apartment next to mine on W76th continue to be rented at lower and lower rates. Someone just moved in and she is paying yet another $200 per month less than the last person (6% less) when it had already dropped 20%. She signed the lease in Apr/May.

Of course you can rationalize a purchase by saying it makes sense as long as your time horizon is X years, but that is beside the point to a discussion of whether or not prices/values have hit bottom. IMHO they have not and we will continue to see a slow decline for the next few years.

enough of this nonsense already, so here we go from top manhattan economist Greg Heym. We are currently 10% off of peak and trending higher. Strong indication that we'll be back at peak median in a year or two. We're talkin real complex stuff here.

CNNMoney.com July 1, 2010

The median home price in Manhattan fell about 20% from its peak, according to Greg Heym, a housing market economist who calculates market statistics for two of New York's biggest brokers. And that is a lot less than bubble markets such as Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas, where prices were slashed by half or more.

"And we've already gotten close to 10% of that back," Heym said.

I don't see the market running away from anyone here. I don't see a reason to scare people away from buying either.

i agree with River-we are at a standstill. I think prices rise, albeit slowly and below the typical 3% y-o-y in a normal market. Too much inventory versus a pick up in demand.

I just find it funny that people use the word rationalize to talk about purchasing. It is a decision just like renting is. You can argue then that you have to rationalize to rent also.

What i continue to find troubling is that people are telling others not to buy because you are assuming people are looking to flip in a few years. The only question i ever ask of people is their reason for buying. If it is a short term outlook of wanting to get out after 5 years, i agree don't buy as you will almost certainly lose money getting out. However if like me you are looking for your home for as long as it works, then what is there to really decide if you feel the price is comfortable for you.

There used to be a day when a home was purchased with the intention of living there forever. Now a lot of people talk about starter homes, then moving to a bigger home when you can afford it.

Also i take issue with the home as an investment talk. Yes it is an asset, yes it has value, but it is only an investment if you are using it to rent out to others and not live there. sure it should appreciate over time, but i do understand the difference between investing in equities, bonds, etc, and buying a place to live in.

I am not and would not tell anyone not to buy. It is different for each person and it all depends on your reasons, outlook, financial situation, etc. For some people this is a very good time to buy.

In terms of a more narrow discussion of whether prices have bottomed or not, I beleive that with all of the continued deleveraging, there will be short term deflation, and it will take a while for the NYC apartment market to find its bottom. You can cherry pick a hundred different economists opinions and use of statistics but there is a huge amount of over leverage on apartments purchased in the last 5-7 years that will take more years to work through. Combine that with lower rents and lower incomes and it results in a continued slow decline in prices.

they use the word rationalize because they realize that the underlying economics make no sense. its exactly the way you would use the word rationalize as it relates to the purchase of a porsche.

as far as a home as an investment, perhaps it would be better to substitute (as many here have suggested) the term "a large commitment of financial resources." As such, the risk that the large commitment of financial resources could decline in value is a risk that many are uncomfortable taking.

Banker - if you don't like cherry picking data that supports a less bearish view, what data do you have that supports yours. Can you put some numbers to your statement about huge amount of over leverage on apartments purchased in the last 5-7 years? I assume you are only talking condos here, given the strict financial requirements of coops that haven't changed in decades.

>Can you put some numbers to your statement about huge amount of over leverage on apartments purchased in the last 5-7 years? I assume you are only talking condos here, given the strict financial requirements of coops that haven't changed in decades<

great point and great question spinnaker

well...can we agree that on average prices dropped 25%? If so, anyone who bought or refinanced in the last 5-7 years has seen that amount of of increased leverage. As an example, if someone bought a place 3 years ago for $2 million and put down a conservative 700 K that equity is now down to $200 K.

stevef/spin - isn't the over leverage made obvious by the huge amount of residential foreclosure's we've seen in Manhattan over the past yr- you know, just like we've seen in Florida, LV, Phoenix and CA?

Very profound cc, so what are you implying?

it takes time for the full repercussions of our economic situation to filter through. the number one driver of incomes in nyc is the financial industry. the financial industry has been the primary beneficiary of an unprecedented level of government intervention. absent that intervention it is unlikely that the financial industry would be doing any better than the rest of the country, much of which remains mired in an unrelenting slump. what do you think would have happened in florida, lv, phoenix etc if the government had pumped billions into the local industries?

"can we agree that on average prices dropped 25%?"

Eh, not quite: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21503-manhattan-median-sales-prices-2000-2010

take some time and wade through these 17 pages

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7616-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-west-side-edition

Take some time and understand that an average effectively means that some prices dropped more than the average and some dropped less. You clearly said average.

Well the government did intervene and a large portion has already been paid back. So here we are.

Banker seems to suggest those who over leveraged and have lost equity will face foreclosure or dump and run, but frankly I don't see the evidence. Last year was the time for panic, not now when the data is pointing to a modest bounce off last years lows.

Oh yeah cc, xlnt point, notice any recent trend in those 17 pages?

i'm not talking about tarp. i'm talking about the fact that wall street continues to be the beneficiary of borrowing money at virtually zero interest and lending it back to the government and making a guaranteed return.

cc, indeed, the more recent posts to that thread don't paint the picture you do, as spin points out.

We didn't have a crash, we had a major shift in mix.

sme- the people who have been reading these boards for a long while know what the bears predicted. You are just factually incorrect here. You are pushing hard to not admit that you were wrong, but facts are facts.

Everyone can agree that we are off NYC highs, but the crash is coming, anyone who can't see it is an idiot. We will crash as soon as....

-The Fed stops buying MBS
-The stimulus stops
-The Tax Credit ends
-The Euro plunges
-The Euro rises
-Greece implodes
-Portugal Implodes
-Spain Implodes
-Mortgage rates skyrocket
-The DOW ticks down
-The DOW ticks up
-Wall Street Bonuses come to an end
-That new condo building comes on the market
-Everyone moves to New Jersey
-Obama does something that Glen Beck said he might do
-Cockroaches and rats take over NYC

But seriously, many of the declines predicted over the past year or two have not materialized. I have read this website since 2009, and most people predicted further significant declines (no I am not going to search discussion boards for quotes), and so far they have been wrong.

@spin...I didn’t mean that apartment owners who have lost equity will necessarilly dump and run. I am saying that the ones that need/choose to sell over the next few years will be selling at market prices which are subject to gloabal develeraging, debt restructuring, writing off of losses, increased capital ratio of banks, etc. that are contributing to a decline in M3 and a deflationary enviroment.

I don't think there is another crash or major shift in mix, more like a few years of slow declines until deleveraging works through, economy picks up and inflation kicks in.

so you are saying that prices have come down so people will get less money if they sell than they would have if they had sold when prices were higher? wow, how much did you pay for that MBA?

jhochle,

funny post! what you have to realize is that most bears trolling these boards, OWN THEIR OWN RENTAL PROPERTIES AND/OR RENTAL WEBSITES...

they are probably making a pretty penny from the increased rents we've seen these past couple months, while people "wait it out" another XX years to jump in.

> Very different risk exposures. Sorr SWE if I don't share your indifference to the magnitude.

Riversider, you are confused. I'm not indifferent to the magnitude. In fact, I think its a pretty big fing magnitude difference.

Its just the dishonesty I'm pointing out.

"What crash?
The only crash i'm seeing are the bears drowning in their own Armageddon prediction."

Well, ericho missed it before it happened, and during it happened, so who is surprised he still missed it.

;-)

rotfl...

> enough of this nonsense already, so here we go from top manhattan economist Greg Heym.

I like how SteveF's evidence is a guy noting the 20% decline....

> Strong indication that we'll be back at peak median in a year or two

What's this "strong indication" steveF? You yelling real loud?

The guy you quoted certainly didn't say that.

And we can probably find you 10x as many economists who have said down.

"However if like me you are looking for your home for as long as it works, then what is there to really decide if you feel the price is comfortable for you."

Thats just not smart. Whether or not you can afford something you want doesn't mean you should always buy it at that price.

">Can you put some numbers to your statement about huge amount of over leverage on apartments purchased in the last 5-7 years? I assume you are only talking condos here, given the strict financial requirements of coops that haven't changed in decades<"

How about the stat that came out yesterday that 25% of us are underwater. Can't do that without some leverage...

"sme- the people who have been reading these boards for a long while know what the bears predicted. You are just factually incorrect here. You are pushing hard to not admit that you were wrong, but facts are facts."

LIC, you can keep repeating yourself, but your statements are incorrect... particularly the ones where you keep saying "all bears".

I don't have to push hard to prove you wrong, the fact that I never said 50 or 70% pretty matter of factly proves your assessment that all bears said it, unless you've since reclassified me.

But, hey, keep repeating yourself another 300x, you'll still be off.

And thats on top of just being wrong about the crash in the first place.

Double mistaken...

Nutty how many bulls still, after years and a documented crash (oh, sorry, "severe bear market") won't admit they are wrong, even though they are *definitionally.*

As I noted, I called this a long time ago... that the bears would know they had been proven right when the bulls were arguing over how deep the crash they denied actually was.

lol.

I for one am enjoying it immensely.

"More important, it was the biggest decline since the great depression, no? Pretty crashy to me."

Not sure this is correct. From the '87 peak to the '95 trough, NYC real estate was a lot more than 20% down. 2008-09 may have been a bigger single-year drop, but clearly these things happen in slow motion in NYC. This is why I think we still haven't seen the bottom yet.

what was inflation from '87 to '95? I'm sure when you add that in, the real drop gets pretty scary.

yup, very scary. so scary, in fact, that prices were ridiculously undervalued. combine that with the enormous changes in the demographic makeup in Manhattan, and it is quite clear that the mid-late 90s will mark a generational low in Manhattan valuations, similar to how the early 80s were a generational low in equity valuations. Which makes it clear how ridiculous all the posters are who are waiting for prices to plummet back those valuations.

jhochle,

funny post! what you have to realize is that most bears trolling these boards, OWN THEIR OWN RENTAL PROPERTIES AND/OR RENTAL WEBSITES...

they are probably making a pretty penny from the increased rents we've seen these past couple months, while people "wait it out" another XX years to jump in.

somewhereelse. I never said i would buy at any price, I used the word comfortable, meaning a price that is reasonable that i can afford where i do not feel i am overpaying with a long term outlook of staying put.

But there are those here including you who will say no matter what buying makes no sense. However without buyers you are left with to many sellers and then you all get your prediction of a price drop.

The cumulative inflation from Dec 86 to Dec 95 was 39%.

I don't think 20% down is a crash. I think I read on another thread someone reassuring Julia that indeed bargains are to be had out there, don't worry, because she could get an alcove studio for $375K. Make that a 800 ft. one brm and I'll say, wow, the market has crashed. For the record, I'd love it if a crash had happened, have no idea where we're headed from here, but no, this was not a crash.

Agreed, Lowery, and I for one do not see things going much lower. In the lower-end brackets - mine and Julia's for example - prices are definitely not down 20%, either.

By the actions of those who came back into the market in the spring of 09, the market bottom was established. The shedding of hundreds of thousands of jobs per month and ugly recessionary outlook failed to stop the buying in subsequent months. In fact, about 1000 people per month in Manhattan continue to reaffirm the notion that the bottom is mostly in and they are satisfied with current valuations. This number has not wavered in over a year and shows no signs of doing so, in spite of all the ugliness and pessimism that surrounds us. Sometimes it seems the only thing that may stop the buying is armed soldiers in the streets.

"funny post! what you have to realize is that most bears trolling these boards, OWN THEIR OWN RENTAL PROPERTIES AND/OR RENTAL WEBSITES..."

paranoid much?

"somewhereelse. I never said i would buy at any price, I used the word comfortable, meaning a price that is reasonable that i can afford where i do not feel i am overpaying with a long term outlook of staying put."

Well, now you are contradicting your original post.

There is the key phrase "overpaying". If you don't do the analysis, and you don't compare to rents, and you don't look at the market direction, then you don't know if you are or aren't overpaying.

Pretty simple.

Either you don't care about cost, which isn't very prudent. Or you care about cost, which should mean you do the proper analysis.

"But there are those here including you who will say no matter what buying makes no sense."

Now you're just making things up.

I've never said that, in fact I've said the opposite.

But, if you have to fabricate my position to make your argument, you clearly have a lousy argument.

> However without buyers you are left with to many sellers and then you all get your prediction of a price drop.

And with unintelligent potential buyers - you know, the kind who don't look at cost vs. value - you get too many buyers and you get... a bubble.

Which is what happened.

The blind buyer approach you recommend just isn't smart.

"unintelligent potential buyers - you know, the kind who don't look at cost vs. value - you get too many buyers and you get... a bubble."

Hey look, I found one:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21585-27-west-19th-street-under-1k-psf

"The bottom is mostly in" Where have we heard that before? oh yeah. 1991.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21522-bottom-is-seen-in-the-new-york-area

Malty, like anyone else without a gut I recommend the sidelines.

Thanks. Sorry about your gut. They have programs for that.

meh, the 3-BRs I've been looking at that were $2M are now $1.7M, a price differential made negligible by the loss of the fantasy of perpetual appreciation.
It's still horseshit, frankly.

options like this are starting to look more appealling
http://www.homesny.com/properties/15_78715/3_Rosemere_St_Rye_NY_10580

sme- I never said all bears made the 50% prediction. I said most of the vocal ones on this Board did. You can make up things I have said and argue with your fantasy statements, but that still doesn't change the facts.

And where was I wrong about the market? I predicted 15% down, so I wasn't that far off. On these boards, when you disagree with bears who predict 50-70% down, you are considered a bull by them. LOL.

"Hey look, I found one:"

Rotflmao. I'm not sure how that's such a steal at $1.4m with fairly high monthlies.

Prices in NYC will decline gradually for another 2-3 years. In mid-2013 you will know what the total peak-to-trough decline will be - it takes a good 5 years for the down cycle to complete itself - we aren't there yet.

BS, how do you account for the bounce off 09 lows and current prices being supported by strong activity? What exactly will cause this trend to turn around and give you your mid 2013 trough?

I think that the consensus of the bears is that NYC can't resist the macro economic picture forever. NYC is quite literally an exceptional market. The financial industry and the the recent spike in the equity markets has supported the NYC market --even with a recent spike this quarter. However, how long will it be before the bleak economic picture catches up with many over leveraged New Yorkers. And aren't those bright young financial things exactly the ones who are smart enough to execute strategic defaults. Take a look at how many over priced apts were marketed to a young, hip generation -- the high line, brooklyn etc. Many of them are underwater. And many more will be underwater as more new condos come up for resale. Time will tell if we will have a tsunami of strategic defaulters. If the economy recovers in the next two years, perhaps that won't happen. But it doesn't look likely.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing/home-prices-ready-to-fall-again/19550988/

BS I disagree. I think we bottomed in early 09 and my long term forecast is normal appreciation rates of 5%-10% for the next 5-7 years before we spike up again and partially correct again. The cycle continues.

steveF based on what? 8.5yrs of inventory nationally. That is notionally but NY is a different market that is what we keep hearing. You say the bottom is in you must be the god of the future. If we have that much inventory we are going to have to get job creation going in the right direction nationally before we can see a bottom. This includes NYC! It is just economics 101 no cash flow no purchasing of anything.

I for one could easily see Manhattan real estate slowly declining over the next 2-3 years like Bsex or Broker said. I also could see it holding these levels or rising.

I just think that the bears constantly pointing to some event as the catalyst for a crash are kidding themselves. There was a potential catalyst for a crash (Lehman), and it didn't happen. There was an orderly decline, that may or may not be over.

Who knows maybe apt23 is right, and as soon as the hipsters start selling then we will see a tsunami of strategic defaulters, but I doubt it. I forgot to put that one on my list of things that will cause the imminent collapse of the market. Oh yeah, and wizards. Wizards could cause a market crash too.

Those predicting the sky falling were just wrong.

Watch and learn - slow decline for next 2-3 years. People are trying to delever. Banks demanding larger downpayments, proof of income, etc. Sellers taking advantage of any bounce in prices to "get out" of bad 2005-2008 purchases. Govt tax credits expiring. RE bubbles take a LONG time to fully unwind - NYC prices only started falling 2 years ago. C'mon, people, it's so frigging obvious.

"Normal appreciation rates of 5-10%..."

Where does that come from?!

Tell you one thing, my salary is not appreciating anything like that!

BSex, I agree with a lot of that. Those factors are much more convincing than some of the stuff that gets tossed around here. There are a couple points I'd question though - tightening lending standards has been going on for 2+ years now, so wouldn't you say the impact has already been felt there? Secondly, the government tax credit is simply not as significant in this market. At best, it seems like a minor factor. And yes, the cycle takes years, but the activity so far this year either indicates that this will be drawn out even more than previous cycles, or (gulp), things won't decline as much as some would have them. It's a bit of a weird stage we're in at the moment.

But the larger point is people are trying to delever - it makes for considerable downside risk for the nearish term.

Topper:
>Where does that come from?!<
The past 100 years of data.

>Tell you one thing, my salary is not appreciating anything like that!<

You salary does not have to appreciate that much, a 4% annual increase would do just fine. A 4% annual salary increase for a 100k salary can leverage close to another 25k in mortgage. So that 500k studio becomes 525k after year 1. A 5% appreciation rate :)

Also Manhattan real estate is not wholly tied to your salary. We have the whole US and world looking to park their extra cash in the most prestigious city on Earth.

bjw, who's trying to delever? where? Nebraska?

BSex obvious? r u kidding me? it's so obvious that sentiment has turned positive and people's mentality is the worst is behind us. That's why inventory is getting tighter and tighter. Don't forget the credit crisis started in July 07. No one has been building for 3 years now. Where is the new inventory coming from that is always needed to satisfy demand? Shadow? lol shadow.