NYT: 1BR Glut

The more time that passes, the more clear that it becomes, due to lack of financing, coupled with a major slowdown on Wall Street/Bonuses, that this slowdown is just beginning, and that it will take years to recover. I think the next shoe to drop will be the larger apartments that were meant for families staying in Manhattan. Most of those units that are worth owning are 3.5 and up. I just don't see enough buyers to buy these units if their current owners need to sell due to financial hardship. Also, as quality of life begins to erode, less families will want to stay in Manhattan. In the same way that 2002-2007 produced a perfect storm of positive fundamnetals all operating at high levels at the same time, I think were are entering a new era where what can go wrong, with respect to Manhattan real estate , will.

Pre this runup, there used to be "general knowledge" (as in it was often said and understood, and I never heard anyone argue) that one bedrooms increase in price the most in booms, and decrease the most in busts.

Families will need 2 bedrooms, but one bedrooms sales are usually to singles with disposable income.

Another interesting thing is they're giving examples of folks who after 10 years can't sell for 50% over what they paid... I believe that would be a loss after inflation... (and a bigger loss with mortgage costs)

The paragraph that really struck me:

"Late last month, he cut the price to $1.015 million. He also listed it for rent at the same time, on the advice of his friend Andy Kim, a broker at Nest Seekers. He had a tenant in a week willing to pay $3,400 a month, and plans to try to sell the apartment again in a few years."

So I had to look it up:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/320503-condo-120-riverside-boulevard-lincoln-square-manhattan

20% down and the monthy payment is still over $6,000

Absolutely... (plus taxes + maintenance + down payment)... a pretty painful rent/buy equation.

The best sentence in the entire article:

"He noticed that prices for one-bedrooms had dropped 5 to 8 percent..."

Let's repeat it for perfitz:

dropped 5 to 8 percent
dropped 5 to 8 percent
dropped 5 to 8 percent
dropped 5 to 8 percent
dropped 5 to 8 percent
dropped 5 to 8 percent
dropped 5 to 8 percent
dropped 5 to 8 percent
dropped 5 to 8 percent

And the market is ALWAYS worse than the way broekrs say it is, so if an agent says prices dropped 5-8%, then prices really dropped 10% +.

I'm in the market to buy in the next 2 years, if I find anything great I'll do it when I find it, but there's no rush.

And as much as I want you guys to be right Apline and Ed, the article doesn't seem to say what you and I want it to say. It does talk about a "glut" of 1 bedrooms, but that seems to just be a headline to sell readers. When you start to get to numbers, the forth paragraph of the article is the first paragraph that has any numbers says "although the average sale price for a one-bedroom apartment grew by 7 percent in the last year, overall apartment prices in Manhattan jumped by 21 percent - not including 15CPW and the Plaza."

So 1 bedrooms grew by 7 percent since last year!

And if you want something else besides a 1br, that grew by 21 percent.

This is NOT a soft market.
Maybe it becomes a soft market, but for potential buyers out there like me, there doesn't yet seem to be a break.

I don't think the average sales prices is an accurate way to track prices. You really have to look at the median. In the rest of the country, the median is used, but agents in Manhattan like to use the average because it shows larger price increases due to the high end sales.

That's a deceptive retort Mr. Alpine.

1 Bedrooms grew by 7 percent.

They aren't lumping in other size apartments to that measurement, the statistic is limited to 1 bedrooms.

I am not saying they are lumping larger apts. into the data. However, THEY ARE lumping high end 1 bedrooms with low end ones. They are lumping 1 bedrooms at Trump with 1 bedrooms in 5th floor walk ups.

The median is helpful; you really need to look at the same unit over time.

The bulls have stopped posting, except bullsh*t. JuiceMan, ccdevi, vverain, spunky, malraux, gone! Yes we still have Sneaky Pete, but he is more entertainment than anything.

uh, ok, so you don't like the average where there is a positive statistic, and call for a median statistic where there is no data. But you seem to like to use an anecdotal statistic from one individual person quoted at the back of a NY Times article (as opposed again to the stat at the beginning of the article). And you managed to repeat that anecdotal negative statistic 10 times as if it is authoritative.

You can't be an authority on statistics if you are going to be a supporter of anecdotes. Unless you just want to hear what you want to hear.

Most of us would like to see prices decline, but wishing doesn't make things come true, and falsities don't negate truths.

Prices have declined. Look at the thread titled "If you can demonstrate movement of the market with comps, post here" That thread tracks the SAME units over time.

And even realtors are saying that prices have delcined. Do you really thinkt aht realtors who depend on commissiona are going to make the market sound worse than it is?

I'm not here to prove the market has gone up, or down, but you track a few units obviously selected because they dropped - more anecdotes - and how many did you look at that have gone up?

realtors get paid on transactions, not on the direction of the market.

Prices are down across the board from a year ago. Uwcider,if you are seriously looking to buy, you must have seen first hand how the market has shifted in favor of buyers. As time elapses, this trend will continue and get more pronounced. Financing is harder to get and more expensive than it has been in years, the local economy is on a down-trend, Wall Street is terrible, and bonuses are essentially gone ad will be so for years to come. How can these factors not drive down prices?
If you are a serious buyer, find a unit you like with a seller that wants/needs to sell. I am quite sure that, assuming you have cash or can get financing, that you will be able to get between 10-20% off asking. IF you wait until next year, you may do better still.

would love to get 20% off asking, but that isn't realistic

Depends on the nit and the time frame of the seller. If you have cash and can do a deal quick, I would say that 20% is doable. That being said, you already concede 10%, which is just a reality today. Look at all of the price drops on streeteasy. You have to be a serious buyer that is ready to pull the trigger, and this is a good market. Will it get better still, I strongly believe that it will, but since you said you don't want to wait forever, I am giving you my opinion as to what is available now.

uwcider:...everything in real estate is a process...sometimes a very long process...pay attention

the first step to lower prices in Manhattan began last year with the global blowup of credit. Every bull on this board refused to believe. They said wall street would continue to spend and there would be a continuation of the great spring selling season...guess what...that great spring selling season did not happen and inventories built up dramatically from Jan - May and stopped once the slow summer doldroms have sent in.

Meanwhile Wall street has continued to lose money. People who would normally snatch up these 1 bedrooms don't have the money either because mortgage standards have tightened (need 25%-30% downpayment when 10% was sufficient) or they just can't take the risk and purchase something in this tight economy. If 1 bedrooms don't sell eventually 2/3 bedrooms don't sell ( the 1 bedroom owners can't upgrade to 2/3 bedrooms since their places aren't selling)and that inventory will build up as well.

When we get that meaningful inventory buildup you will see dramatic price decreases...they are coming...just wait

The psycology is already changing...that same writer from the NY times was writing articles about how the NY market was stable and resilient just a few months ago, now an article about stagnant 1 bedrooms...the article about the dramatic drop in sales is 6 months away.

Real estate bulls are now saying if you hold a property for 5-7 years you will definitely make a profit...that is a 180 degree reversal from what they were saying just six months ago. Next I'm sure they will say that purchasing a property with the intent to rent for the next 2-3 years was their plan all along. They'll ride it out till the next bull market in 4 years or so...the next bull markey ain't coming for another 10 years minimum and only after prices go back to 700 per sq foot. That is what a developer who knows the market and didn't start in 1999 will tell you.

The process is firmly in place and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it...it doesn't take a genius to figure this one out...my god don't you bulls read history books for gods sake

Ok, it is all logical and I would agree that things are going in that direction, which is why I'm not in a rush, but be real someone is talking about the 1 bedroom glut and citing all of the soft reasons and forward looking guesses, but the facts said that 1 bedrooms were up 7% in price in the past year and 2 bedrooms and bigger up even more.

So I think and hope prices are going down next year, but I don't know. After all you just mentioned that the problems began last year with the global blowup of credit. We are already in August, so, yeah, I guess I'll wait and place my bets in that direction, but last year's evidence doesn't yet get us to lower prices unfortunately.

A quick history lesson: the Nikkei peaked ~1.5 years before Tokyo residential real estate prices started falling (and then kept falling for 15 years). Tokyo had every bullish factor you could possibly think of going for it. The stock market knew what was going to happen way before the illiquid real estate knew it. I'm guessing NYC will be no different. And even if the stock market is wrong about the slowdown at least it will bounce 20-30% to correct itself while NYC real estate simply won't go down in that scenario.

Back in the late 1980s everyone was saying we should be like Japan.

uwcider:

it is a process...sellers are still clinging to high prices...did you read that article about the guy clinging to a million dollar price tag for a condo he will rent for $3,400...he is delusional...just like all the other sellers...but this is part of the process as well. Thet will all get religion at the same time and will then be competeing with each other to lower their prices.

once again I am just telling you what normally happens in a real estate downturn. It is an established process. The bull market was inevitable just as the downturn is inevitable

Flmd, well said. I think the simple way to put it is backpedalling...

BTW, the Japan RE market still hasn't returned to its former peak, decades later...

Home prices are still falling. I laugh when people say, so what if California, Arizona, Nevada..... decrease, this is NYC. Well I'll tell you why you should care. As the rest of this country continues to decrease so goes wallstreet. These banks can't even put a real estimate on the losses. This paper is going to border on Zero in the next few months.

The Fed can do what ever they want, however this problem is bigger then the federal government. You can't stop it. I have said, this was never a sub-prime problem. Even prime borrowers are now going into foreclosure. All estimates were for sub-prime. How are they going to raise capital for the next $500 Billion.

GM, Chrysler, Lehman, Wachovia and WaMu just to mention a few are actually bankrupt for all intensive purposes. What's the Fed going to do when GM officially goes under? Are they going to bail them out? Can you imagine the cost. The Dow is down about 19% off its highs. Most bear markets touch the 30% decline before a recovery. This is in no way a normal bear market. Greenspan stated this week that "it's a once in a century event". Now because that fool Cramer in CNBC said the market has bottomed, we should all buy into this market. Give me a break.

I'm sticking to my analysis and the events I anticipate for the future. In a nut shell the Dow will have to decrease at least 40% off it's highs. So the way I see it, we still have 20% down side before we can even think about a bottom.

"this problem is bigger then the federal government"

Absolutely. $25 billion to Fannie & Freddie is a drop.

"In a nut shell the Dow will have to decrease at least 40% off it's highs."

Doubt that.

stevejhx-

My guess is that a lot of people would have doubted this mess could have ever have happened. It's actually comical.

The irony about this mess is that it caused an artificial RE and stock market. All of those earnings were actually BS. Now the that housing bubble has burst, the feds are trying to keep the same from happening to the stock market. They are actually creating, an even potentially bigger bubble, by all of their market interference. Blank checks and rigging the market to protect financial from naked short sales. This 19% decline is 100% artificial and no different from the RE bubble. We're down 19%, even with the fed interference. When they realize that they can's stop the locomotive, the bubble will pop and the markets will tumble.

uwcider:

I am not sure of your budget/location in Manhattan. But I'll tell you this - I was in the market to buy a place earlier this year (co-op/condo) and saw more than 50+ units around UWS/UES/Midtown/Gramercy. Due to an impending work related transfer to the far east within the next 18 -24 months, I decided to pull out and rent as opposed to buying, and living in my new place for approx. 18 or so months and then sub-leasing it when I am gone.

Am I glad I made that decision. Now, the brokers I have dealt with keep calling and telling me they can "try" to get me units at 10% off my budget (which was in the upper 600s). Additionally, the lovely co-op bldg that I rent in presently, which is located in the desirous CC area, 1 block from CPS and right next door to the TWC, and which has a lovely private garden between the 2 bldgs, has a unit that I looked to buy and had put in a low ball offer (in March) which was approx. 15% below asking - the seller refused to even counter. Well guess what the same place is now still on the market and she has dropped her asking by 5% - net net I think the deal could be sealed with a 10% below her original asking if she was convinced that the prospect was serious with good credentials to pass the board process.

I know this is purely anecdotal no stats to back this up, but I tell you this mate. Do not be misled by stats - they are great for an overall macro analysis (heck I know - I am a mgmt. consultant by profession), but sometimes you never get the true picture, due the the vastness of the city, the diff nabes, bldgs, inidividual situations, etc. etc. So keep looking around, be patient and it seems (as you mentioned) that you have the time to wait. Good luck mate.

cheers,

weasel boy:

I'm not "gone."

I'm out there looking and I don't see any urgency on the part of brokers. Hopefully that will change but right now it appears to be a standstill.

malraux! Where's that apology of yours for your completely groundless claim that the Case-Shiller index says something about "Prime Manhattan Real Estate"?

"I'm out there looking and I don't see any urgency on the part of brokers."

I think you're not being forceful enough.

I'm a professional sales exec. I negotiate with clients every day. I'm trying very hard with the brokers but they get this blank look on their face when you know they are not listening.

Julia:

Forgot to mention in my earlier post - FWIW, when I started looking to buy - my search was relentless - Sat & Sun (incl. some weekdays if i was in town) - morn to evening for 3 months with 2 brokers. I used to go armed with my credentials consisting of loan pre-approval, tax docs, employment letter, pay stubs, bank statements, folder with asset related docs, credit score, etc. etc. I used to share this info with the brokers (incl. the selling broker) to let them know that I was serious, viable and looking to move fast. I assume then, that perhaps this created a sense of urgency, and some sort of feeding frenzy which had these brokers salivating at the prospect of their commissions and calling me all the time to show me units. And perhaps that is why despite formally bowing out of my search in May/June, I still have these guys calling me and sending me email updates.

cheers,

i agree with Julia -- at the risk of being called names again by Eddie. I am not a broker, and I have been looking primarily in the UWS, Morningside Heights and Harlem since May 2007. Looking for a nice 3br/2ba under $1,25M. Had several choices when we first started looking, and very few if any today. Very much in tune with market driven arguments that portend a major drop in prices, but not seeing them. Yes, responsiveness of brokers has increased, and they call you a lot, reflective of the lack of sales, but virtually every property I had on my consider list in the last few months up to an asking price of $1,75 million has sold. yes, there are several that were dogs that are still there.
The problem seems to be that inventory is still low, prices are high and lot of buyers on the sidelines looking for a decent price on something nice.Likely these are people who are fiscally conservative to a degree and are able to act quickly on a well priced decent apartment.
Hoping and looking for 30% down and 700/sqft in UWS.

joedavisman, only 700 square feet for a 3 bedroom?

I'm looking for 1500 sq ft for a 2br loft.

Steve,

If you think that you can get such great deals from sellers, then why don't you become a buyer's agent and you can represent all of us? You can beocme the biggest, baddest buyers agent in all of Manhattan and be the next Barbara Corcoran! Sellers will run and hide under their beds when they see Steve and his 30% lowball offer walk into the room!

wpsst: He wants to PAY $700/sq ft

joedavis: you have to wait to get that price...plain and simple...if you are impatient like all the rest he have purchased this year you will be sorry in as little as 2 - 3 years. Once again it is a process...now that there is a noticeable glut in 1 bedrooms...we have to wait for the noticeable drop in 1 bedroom prices. that could take 6 months. Then will come the glut of 2-3 bedrooms...then the drop in prices.

if you are seriuos about wanting $700 per sq. ft you have to wait at least until mid to late 2009 before prices get in the 800 sq ft arena. Also if wall street should magiacally come back from the dead...it will delay the process

pay $700 psf? NYC?

Why do I waste my time here?

I don't think Wall St. will be coming back until next decade. I actually welcome the glut in 1 bedroom apts. since that is what I am in the market for.

wpsst: then leave the discussion board...go to the 505 discussion board where there are soon to homeowners who are so certain that the 1000 per sq ft that they paid for condos above railroad tracks in hells kitchen (on 10th and 11th avenue no less) are going to appreciate dramatically in a 1 year time period .

$700 per sq ft is the 2004 price level...that is where we are going...

"If you think that you can get such great deals from sellers, then why don't you become a buyer's agent and you can represent all of us?"

Because if I were an agent it would be to my benefit for prices to increase.

"pay $700 psf? NYC?"

Prime WV was going for that price as recently as 2003. Prices went up 20% per year in the subsequent 5 years.

wpsst, as a Wall Street guy, what other asset class has ever gone up so far so fast and stayed there forever?

None.

$700 psf...I think that's pretty high or maybe I'm nuts. Anyway I'll continue to look (hunt) for a one bedroom.

stevejhx nothing is forever, but there are a lot of really long-terms. Take the Bush family. Or Harvard. Or Manhattan which became real durng the Dutch.

"there are a lot of really long-terms.

That is true, and in the really long-term owner-occupied residential real estate increases by 0.7% per annum real. It has since the end of WWII. Whenever it goes up high, it comes down low, and then reverts to the mean.

In the really long-term real estate will eventually again be worth what it is today and was yesterday. But in the short- and medium-terms, it will readjust to incomes and leverage, which means that prices will fall.

And it would be more precise to say, "Take the Bush family. Please."

See another disingenuous comment by steve above. In a discussion about Manhattan real estate, he uses a national indicator, and a questionable one at that, to show long-term real estate returns. In Manhattan over the last 40 years, the annualized nominal return on real estate has been approximately 9%. When you also take into account the leverage factor, owner occupied real estate has been a very good long-term asset grower for owners in NYC.

"See another disingenuous comment by steve above. In a discussion about Manhattan real estate, he uses a national indicator, and a questionable one at that, to show long-term real estate returns."

That is from the Case-Shiller research. Only LICC believes that Case-Shiller is a "questionable indicator."

"In Manhattan over the last 40 years, the annualized nominal return on real estate has been approximately 9%."

Provide your source. No such data exist.

"When you also take into account the leverage factor, owner occupied real estate has been a very good long-term asset grower for owners in NYC."

When you count return-on-investment, O Financial Guru, calculate it using the ENTIRE amount invested, including the borrowed portion. You do not calculate it on just the down payment.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. You're an idiot.

it's interesting to hear the experiences of people who are actually in the market - sellers are clearly not panicking yet, and there are no amazing bargains yet - about $700 per sq ft - that's what one-brm condos were in East Midtown in 2002.... in fact I viewed an 800-sq-ft condo on E.49th in 2002 or 2003 that was asking $490,000 and had a large terrace with beautiful view - have no clue whether that price level will return or not, but I thought it was HIGH

steve, we've been through this before. You can look up how much different apartments cost in 1968 and just run the number.

If you think I'm an idiot, then you must be getting senile, because I'm not the one pushing factually incorrect information, failing to remember past discussion, making bad conclusions on out-of-context data, and being generally cranky and obnoxious.

agreed... we're seeing declines, and stuff sitting there for a while, but I would definitely say panic has not hit yet. When it does, watch out...

LICCommwnt- leverage can be a beautiful thing in a bull market. The opposite is true in a bear market, unless you think LIC is immune to the economy, lending standards, and effect of high inventory going on in the rest of the world. A 9% decrease is all the equity you have in your LIC studio, wiped out, gone, kaput.

Interesting information:

See recent prices for 1160 Park: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/1160-park-avenue-manhattan

See NY Mag article on 1968 Manhattan apartment prices: http://nymag.com/anniversary/40th/strategist/43881/

1968: A six-room, three-bath co-op apartment at 1160 Park Avenue: sold for $32,700.

From 2006 to 2008, looks like similar apartments in the same building sold for $2.25mil to $3.1mil. And this building is all the way on 95th Street.

I don't think steve realizes how low apartment prices were in the late 1960s. Apartments were pricey for the time, but purely from a number standpoint compared to today, it is striking.

Wow, way to go... you've managed to post the same exact info on two different threads that it had nothing to do with! Way to go!

don't worry newaccount. a bear market is when everyone becomes "long term investors".

not that it matters, but 1160 Park is on the NW corner of 92nd St., not 95th - trust me on this one......

> don't worry newaccount. a bear market is when everyone becomes "long term investors

well said...

julia -- $700psf is high. 2000 in UWS a 1500 sqft 3br/2b apt on UWS was around $600k-$700k, or $400psf
today the same seems to be about $1.6 - 1.8 million or about 3 times as much. I did not buy then because of the steep rise in NYC values between 1996 and 2000, and I was concerned that it could not continue -- after all we just had the internet boom go bust, and 9-11 2001 suggested (the next year) a major correction could happen
These things are cyclical so the hope is that the crash all these posters here predict will happen, but it doesnt seem likely that we'll get to $400psf
Maybe in Harlem or Washington Heights or Inwood or Brooklyn...or even UWS
We can hope
then the Bears here will gloat and still not buy
the Bulls here will no longer B.S. us with their optimism
and if the interest rates are up to 11-15% none of us sitting around will be able to buy these apartments any more than we can today.
Our society seems to be marked to a degree by conspicuous consumption
as long as Apple can sell billions of Iphones and Ipods at a premium , that you MUST buy Applecare for if you expect to use them beyond the warranty period, nothing much will change.
Once Apple stock price starts dropping like a rock, you can believe that the Bears have arrived
hope the situation is more optimistic in reality than the cynical view above

flmd, you are very prescient indeed. Real estate is not a free market. Price discovery is a very fuzzy concept in real estate. With the exception of Case-Shiller and the intrepid scourers of streeteasy histories, I do not put much faith in any of the price appreciation/depreciation statistics.

The lag between when economic/credit/regulatory change and when real estate prices change is pretty long. I'd say it's in the order of years. I remember when no interest loans first hit Manhattan. Nobody was buying. Then a few years later, everyone was in the game. I see the same thing happening on the way down. Nobody wants to sell. Then all of a sudden there will be interest rate resets and job losses and everybody will try to cash out at the same time.

80sman

You are right on. All we have to do now is wait for the domino effect and the herd mentality to create an exit stampede.

The articles said that prices are up 7% from last year.

To add complexity, CPI inflation since June 2004 to June 2008 has been about 15.3%. So $700/ft in 2004 is about $807 today. I'm seeing coops in UWS trading at about the $900/sq ft range. So a 10-15% drop in prices will get you back to inflation adjusted 2004 prices. If inflation spikes more, it might be closer to 10% price drop to get to 2004 equivalent levels.

I think it is problematic to discuss prices over a span of years without taking inflation into account.

What is New York City inflation?

"I don't think steve realizes how low apartment prices were in the late 1960s. Apartments were pricey for the time, but purely from a number standpoint compared to today, it is striking."

And they were completely stagnant in the 1940s and 1950s, and fell in the 1970s and 1980s and 1990s. And they will fall again in the 2000s.

Pick an apartment in what was a marginal neighborhood in the 1960's (Spanish Harlem), and you'll get your result. And if you pick the house owned by my wealthy great-grandmother Catherine Vanderbilt in Stuyvesant Heights, down the block from F.W. Woolworth, which was worth a fortune in 1900, and today is worth less than a Chelsea studio, and you'll see what I mean: neighborhoods change.

FYI if you didn't get it, Stuyvesant Heights is now part of Bed-Stuy.

Park Avenue and 92nd Street was Spanish Harlem?

It was in 1968. Did you live here then?

92nd was *way* high in 1968, absolutely. Reminds me of a story of someone who bought a place right around then facing the Natural History museum, on the north side of 86th. They were chastized for buying on the "wrong" side of 86th. It was literally a safety issue back then...

Natural History Museum. West side. Between 77th and 81st.

???

EddieWilson, The TV show "48 hours", hosted by Dan Rather's started out in the 80's as a 1 episode special called "48 hours on Crack Street". "crack street" was West 84th between Columbus and Amsterdam. The success of the episode launched the series.

And if you watch old Seinfeld episodes George Costanza and others are routinely threatened when they walk down the wrong block in the west 80's (the gang "the Monroes)

Hey Eddie, the AMNH is on 81st street, not 86th. Nice try though.

This article is misleading. 1br's might be sitting on the market for a longer time than last year but it's not clear that signifies a 'glut'.

What the article tells me is that sellers need to adjust their expectataions and realize they're not going to get 20% more than they paid just because that was what 1 br's were appreciating annually when they bought.

I find the two examples interesting - the cellist who paid $675k 3 years ago and expected to sell it for $1 million - that's quite a significant gain for such a short time period. Or the couple who bought their place on the UWS last year and were hoping to sell it about 15% more than they paid & rennovated.

Yes, the market is slowing down a bit, but every time I compare what I paid for my place 18 months ago against current comps I know I made the right choice.

80sMan,

I'm a fairly avid Seinfeld watcher. I can't recall the safety of the Upper west side being as a recurring plot point.

The gang was in one episode and they were called the Van Buren Boys as was the episode, They were named after
8th president of the United States. The George Character was, more wimpy then they were tough.

The only other threats I can think of are by the two gay guys who steal the Ar moire from Kramer and then in another episode beat him for not wearing an Aids Ribbon. Ok maybe there was the episode where Kramer is lost on First and First the nexus of the universe, but to be fair his fears are unsubstantiated.

i'm up 21% on my 1BR condo in midtown based on actual sales in my building since when i bought in early 2006. Agree with uptowngal, this is going to be a case by case scenario.

You can't make broad generalizations about every 1BR in manhattan.

> Hey Eddie, the AMNH is on 81st street, not 86th. Nice try though.

Shit, thats right.... its even worse than I thought. 81st used to be the "don't go above" line.... I had 86 in my head from the east side...

But, I don't think the Seinfeld years ever referenced a lousy UWS... it was far too late for that..

Eddie, why don't you just admit that you are talking out your ass?

Are you saying that 15 West 81st Street - which faces the museum - was considered a bad building because of its neighobrhood in the 1980s?

Your claims are laughable at this point.

I'll ask again:
1) Where do you live now, and how big is your place?
2) Have you EVER owned NYC real estate?
3) What do you do for a living?

evillager, don't waste your time. EddieWilson is the same ass who couldn't even afford a studio in Brooklyn. Why on earth would anyone take anything he says seriously?

> Are you saying that 15 West 81st Street - which faces the museum
> - was considered a bad building because of its neighobrhood in the 1980s

No, shit for brains... the 60s...

> EddieWilson is the same ass who couldn't even afford a studio in Brooklyn.

Uh, we kidding with this? Not only do you 2 putzes have nothing to resort to but insults at this point, but you should at least insult accurately...

> 1) Where do you live now, and how big is your place?
DUMBO, 1 bedroom loft, 1400 square feet. In a building that hasn't seen a sub-$1k psf sale in a while... (but I'm sure that will change)

> 2) Have you EVER owned NYC real estate?
Absolutely. Just not right now...

> 3) What do you do for a living?
Went VC, now still in that "realm" (and thats all you're gonna get).

Now sit down and shut the fuck up...

Wow, Eddie, that was great. The comment "Went VC" made me literally laugh.

But I'm glad to know that you live in DUMBO! I can see why you were previously hiding your shame. Love the qualifier - "In a building that hasn't seen a sub-$1k psf sale in a while"

Really, you're priceless!

hiding my shame? are you an idiot? Dude, I'm said it on this board at least 10x already. And I've already said I don't like the neighborhood and am on my way out.

Maybe someday I'll be able to upgrade to your 300 square feet walkup on Avenue D! Which is like right next Astor Place!

But, are you really talking shit living in one of the cheapest neighborhoods in Manhattan. You already admitted you looked in LIC and Williamsburg....

You, for one, should NOT be trying to put others down financially...

and, of course, we excitedly await your description of how you made your billions (but somehow only live in the cheapest neighborhoods).

Actually, I said I've "never been to LIC" but did look at Williamsburg

So sorry you live in a neighborhood you hate. Must be a bad feeling!

By the way, I'm not making fun of DUMBO for being "cheap", I just think it sucks. Nothing to do there, and no upside of being charming and family friendly like Brook Heights, Cobble Hill or Park Slope.

Enjoy the sound of the train passing overhead!

you gotta be kidding me

Dude, when the only way you can make yourself feel better is by trying to insult others on a board, you KNOW you have issues.

Nice life, 10013.

Maybe someday you'll get off the unemployment line and our of your mom's basement in sunnyside.

BTW, folks who say "Goldman Sachs" didn't actually work there. Nice try, though...

You gonna tell us about your mansion now?

Eddie you need to be more like stevejhx. I have to admit that although he comes across very arrogant and condescending he has never resorted to personally attacking anyone on this board.

My mansion? I won't lie about my housing situation--unlike you.

As far as insulting others on a board--Eddie, that's ALL you do.

i'm with Eddie ... why anyone would cite where they used to work as giving them some sort of authority, on a message board no less, is a mystery to me

10013, please don't instigate Eddie anymore. He is really scaring me. I get very frightened when I see words typed by him on my computer screen!

> By the way, I'm not making fun of DUMBO for being "cheap", I just think it sucks.

I actually agree.

> Nothing to do there, and no upside of being charming and family
> friendly like Brook Heights, Cobble Hill or Park Slope.

I think you're talking out of your ass. Its stroller central in DUMBO now. There are multiple children's clothing stores, and a damn children's haircut place, and everybody and their mother walks around with a stroller (and another one on the way). BBP has more kids than adults. And the fuckers throw rocks!

As for "nothign to do", you named a bunch of fairly boring areas. Smith Street? Its comparison of some lame stuff. BH? Really? What can you do, walk back and forth to the promenade? Go to that one bar on Montague? DUMBO lost a lot of the cool illegal stuff, but some is still there. And, while Brooklyn loft is gone, Galapagos is almost ready. Not saying fantastic or anything, but a BH comparison is sorta ridiculous...

The housing stock is *much* more family friendly that much of BH/CH/CG (elevators!) and cars are MUCH easier to park.. . Not saying its better for kids in comparison, but saying "not family friendly" means you don't know shit about the area. Its the annoying stroller fuckers that make me want out...

> i'm with Eddie ... why anyone would cite where they used to work as giving
> them some sort of authority, on a message board no less, is a mystery to me

When all the evidence points to a housing bust, I guess the folks who bought into the bubble don't have much else to do but insult...

Hi Spunky - good to hear from you. What are your thoughts on the current market and this article? Seriously - just wondering if you had altered your sentiment at all.

> and condescending he has never resorted to personally attacking anyone on this board.

True, Spunky, but you missed this as the continuation of another thread.... (LIC sucks, if you're curious) evillager went for the insults first. He doesn't like an argument, thats what he seems to resort to. I only responded...

> My mansion? I won't lie about my housing situation--unlike you.

Wait, you're saying I'm lying about the apartment I mentioned above?

Wow, if you think I had to *stretch* to give that description, then I really feel sorry for you...

hrdnitlr, you're absolutely right. From now on, I'll just refer to my work in the "realm" of VC and my rented DUMBO loft to give myself authority!

BTW, EddieWilson has been saying the market is going to crash for at least one year now. Happy Anniversary, moron!

http://curbed.com/archives/2007/08/22/your_morning_credit_crunch_110_livingston_we_presume.php#492276

I supposed one of these years you'll be right. Maybe then you'll be able to buy that studio in Brooklyn you were so fond of but couldn't afford.

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2006/06/board_of_ed_bui.php

ugh - I thought this was a meaningful discussion board...

Actually, no, on the other thread you claimed that if you are anywhere near a subway, you're not in the east village. I disagreed, and said that if you really believed that, you don't know the neighborhood. I used Veselka, on 9th and 2nd (2 blocks from a subway) and McSorleys (1 block) as examples of places clearly known in the East Village with good subway access. You had no response...

uptowngal,

What ever gave you THAT idea? I mean, have you read any of EddieWilson's posts?

And to answer eddie's question, I am no billionaire - do well for myself, but pretty average by NYC standards. I work for an investment firm.

Regarding the thread topic, I think that nice 1BRs (meaning either prewars, or nice new condos) in desirable areas will do fine, particularly if they have unusual amenities, like good outdoor space. If you own a cookie-cutter 1br built between the 60s and 90s in murray hill, I'd be a little worried.

> hrdnitlr, you're absolutely right. From now on, I'll just refer to my
> work in the "realm" of VC and my rented DUMBO loft to give myself authority!

Dumbass, get your story straight... I did no such thing. I was asked - hell, I was HOUNDED - until I answered. I did not even hint that that makes my predictions any more or less valid. It was YOU who tried to connect where one lives to what they're allowed to say.

Here are your genius words:
"EddieWilson is the same ass who couldn't even afford a studio in Brooklyn. Why on earth would anyone take anything he says seriously?"

You are a complete hypocrite...

> BTW, EddieWilson has been saying the market is going to crash for at least one year now. Happy
> Anniversary, moron!

I called it a year in advance, and you're COMPLAINING?!? Oh my lord, I got it right, gave folks PLENTY of time to act, and thats a bad thing.

Uh, well, uh.... SORRY FOR BEING RIGHT!!!

> Maybe then you'll be able to buy that studio in Brooklyn
> you were so fond of but couldn't afford.

Got nothing else but insults? Dude, I can fit 5 of your apartments inside mine. And, when I said where I lived, you thought I was EXAGGERATING.

Shows pretty clearly that you live in the studio you're trying to pin on others... only your mom lives with you, and its in Queens.