Bidding wars in the suburbs

I know in many parts of Jersey the market's been very soft. Hopefully people aren't overpaying for a temporary bump that will come back to bite them.

There are bidding wars all the way up to the Catskills, as well as Fairfield, Litchfield and Dutchess Counties. Everything within a 100 mile radius of NYC is en fuego.

Ok, what did you do with Keith?

Except NYC, of course

Hey I'm from Jersey! I had a lot of friends struggling over the years to sell properties, in Essex and Bergen county. Taxes are ridiculous in those two counties.

I would prefer to rent for a year, then see where those markets stand. No need to rush into buying into a market that's 'El Fuego'. Just saying.

What I don't understand is why some people seem gleeful that the New York City real estate market is getting hammered?

There aren't places to rent. If you want to be in there before the school year, you'd better bid now.

And if you're selling a $5m multifamily to buy a $1m McMansion in central Jersey, do you really care much if you overpay by 10%? The absolute amount is small.

$1mm McMansion (4K sq ft, pool, nice kitchen with high end appliances, Marble baths, central air etc, yard, enough separation from the neighbors) in decent part of NJ? Where? Post a few links please. I know that you can get decent every thing house for sure for under $1mm in a good area.

Edison. Will this pass as McMansion? Taxes certainly will at 30k.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6-Pavlocak-Ct-Edison-NJ-08820/39071033_zpid/

This one yes. Clearly there is a lot of stuff in between further away from the city.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/90-Prospect-Hill-Ave-Summit-NJ-07901/40066721_zpid/

Or if you want to go to "a distant part of central Jersey," this is bang on $1m. I love the second photo of this thing dominating the houses nearby. (This isn't what my friend bought.)

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/18-Ridgeview-Way-Allentown-NJ-08501/92364608_zpid/

My friends in Old Tapan paid almost $3mm. Some people I know in Princeton, close to $2mm. Rumsen $2mm plus. Naturally I know that you can get a no pretense house to raise a family in NJ for less than $1mm.

That's quite a transition from New York City to Allentown, NJ??.... I would think most New Yorkers would be looking in places like Maplewood (favorite of mine, direct train into the city) or Montclair (also direct train into the city).

When you get out into these marginal mcmansion generic parts of Jersey, you start noticing homes on the market for over a year. There's a very good reason for that when you actually know Jersey.

Feel free to call me if you want to chat about Jersey or want a good referral for an agent in Bergen county. She's a friend I've known since grammar school born and bred in the area. Hubby has been at Morgan Stanley for 25 years.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/39-Elston-Rd-Montclair-NJ-07043/38684575_zpid/

Keith
TBG

@george wonder what you would say to me if I told you 'what's the big deal to overpay by $100k' it's a small amount, if you were working with me in NYC : )

Keith
TBG

George, Allentown is hard to commute from the city. Try finding a good bakery. So you will certainly get a discount. If someone didn’t need to be in NYC frequently, why not a place like Denver or Fort Lauderdale? $1mm is enough and taxes are much lower.

I am very worried for Mrs. George. I wish I could connect George with my friend who moved his Tribeca-loving wife to Texas. Not going well at all.

George, This is very decent and close to the city.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/114-Phyllis-Dr-Old-Tappan-NJ-07675/52904271_zpid/

If you like a little gold:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1-Hamilton-Ave-11-Weehawken-NJ-07086/2085674416_zpid/

Don't worry, I'm not planning to move to Jersey! But if schools don't open fully and completely in September, the child care pressure may burst Mrs George's dam and send us packing.

In the case of my friend, his wife is from Philly and he has a well-established clientele in NYC such that he can visit a day or two a week and do what needs doing in person. Central Jersey is their compromise. The strip malls there are pretty much the same as the stores lining Union Square, so it's not that different.

No comment on gold?

Gold looks like it was designed by a Saudi prince in a Vegas bordello. The original was probably much better.

The people who moved here from other places because of NYCs quirky, unique stores, etc then dragged all their boring, bland retail here after them. So now there's no reason to be here anymore now that they homogenized it.

Example: the super celebration of a Wegmans replacing Admiral's Row.

But from what I'm seeing of this red hot market with bidding wars, a decent amount are asking less than 2008 prices.

MCR,
Back in the early 1980s I knew a bunch of guys who moved to Florida to get away from New York (state). Almost every one of them was either dead or moved back within 4 or 5 years.

FWIW, I think the relative bump for the suburbs / dip for NYC is going to be a real thing that persists, reversing the trend of the last decade. There are always people on the margin of having a place in NYC vs. not. Pied a terre people. Young families living in non-expansive quarters hanging onto the parents’ perceptions of hipness. The NYC of yore (i.e., pre-corona) is not coming back for ~2 years. Once you lose them, you lose them for a good decade.

@Keith: "What I don't understand is why some people seem gleeful that the New York City real estate market is getting hammered?"

I'm not sure "gleeful" is the right word for it, but what's wrong with a more affordable real estate market for NY? That might be at least one small silver lining in a very big cloud.

I, for one, am not happy about it. If prices get hammered, then $5B/yr of new development will no longer target the $2500+ ppsf market. Air rights will drop from $400-800 ppsf, and new development will be forced to meet demand from the whiny Manhattan “middle class” (i.e., healthy six-figure incomes) at $1000-$2000 ppsf. (Do you even get appliances at those bargain-basement prices?) Pray tell, who then will then subsidize construction of shiny half-occupied towers for me to rent on the cheap? And will the people who provide all the services we love start living in the older housing stock rather than commuting from the other boroughs or beyond?

No, no, we must keep prices at levels targeting HNW to UHNW individuals, so as not to revert the hard-fought changes to character of the city! Once you have sub-million-dollar 1BR apts available, society as we know it will fall apart and you will have civil unrest.

Nada, There are plenty of already built $4k plus sq ft ultra luxury apartment for you to rent at cheaper than cost to buy. Your arbitrage will stay alive.

Wait till inflation and then interest rates rise and they will all "need" to see higher returns (and keep units vacant rather rent for what is "fair").

Perhaps, but won’t the luster of the shine degrade over the years? *Sigh*. I guess I can hope my vision will degrade with age so I won’t notice.

30yrs, what ever happened to Bleeker St retail in terms of rents & properties trading hands? What you said reminded me of that. I lost track of the story some years ago, but I figure you must have kept tabs and can provide the Cliff Notes version.

I accept what is without judgment, the world keeps spinning and I'll simply keep rolling with it and not resisting it.

I appreciate a good market downturn as much as the next guy, that's where opportunity is born. Although I'm still scratching my head over this exuberant stock market. However, if Warren and Charlie didn't buy, I feel like I'm in pretty good company. Time will tell.

And just for the record, though I know neither could give a damn what I think. I wasn't referring to Nada or the Grave Dancer. But I do feel there are those that are just a bit too happy to see NYC real estate getting a kick in the booty. But we should remain cognizant of the fact this was an extraordinary worldwide catastrophic biological event that took out the markets. Not the normal business cycle in action.

I don't view this as being the end of New York, I truly believe this will be a new beginning for the city and the people that live here. New York has always been a tough place to live and filled with a lot of tough people. Not the types that would run to Jersey : ) Even in the suburbs your kids are going to be packed into school rooms sharing germs as usual.

We are still in the very beginning of this, and science will figure it out and we'll have some excellent therapeutics as well as a vaccine. And then some of those that participated in bidding wars in Central Jersey might be second-guessing their move. The future is unwritten.

Keith
TBG

Happy Memorial day!

https://youtu.be/1vhFnTjia_I

Nada, 157 West 57th still being sold as new and ultra luxury with several apartments which have never been occupied. So you will have plenty of luck when you are willing to pay appx $10 per sq ft per month.

“Perhaps, but won’t the luster of the shine degrade over the years?”

I will be delighted to see NYC revert to a place where people who actually work for a living can also live, especially those whose pay is not always commensurate with their gifts (e.g., artists and musicians). And i will also be happy to see families go to the suburbs for no reason other than my own self-centered nostalgia. I love urban life as an adult and have ever since I was 18, but I also don’t discount the idyllic childhood memories of kick-the-can in the vast green space of my suburban childhood. We are lucky to have the wealth of good choices that we do. Definitely a First World problem to be torn between the West Village and Greenwich.

mcr, Do you think the artists and musicians can afford the cc/maintenance and taxes in Manhattan? Manhattan real estate and income tax base is already funding big parts of many other boros and social welfare schemes.

I plead guilty to being more than a bit happy to see NYC real estate getting a kick in the booty. I'm thrilled at the prospect. More, please! Because NYC real estate has given me a kick in the booty. Along with many of the people and businesses that made Manhattan special. I don't shed a single tear for these landlords or property owners. They got rich from passive income. Good for them. But they didn't take care of their neighborhoods in the way that, say, Grosvenor Estate did in Mayfair.

Walk around Union Square. There are fewer than 5 establishments that wouldn't also be found at a suburban strip mall. Why would I pay a premium to live there? Even 125th St is becoming a giant strip mall. Let's not get started on Hudson Yards, which could just as easily be in Singapore, Dubai, or Houston.

I guess foreign condo buyers like this, but to me it has created a blandness that isn't worth a fraction of the cost. The people who created the blandness shouldn't be allowed to sell out at ridiculous prices now. Finally buyers agree and are realizing they can live above a Chase branch for 1/5th the cost in the suburbs.

Take a look at 8th St. between Broadway and 6th Ave. It was one of the most vibrant retail strips anywhere. So much so that NYPD took to closing it down on weekend nights. Then Honey Klein formed the BID 8th St Alliance whose first initiative was to widen the sidewalks (even though I never saw a sidewalk overcrowding issue in the close to 30 years I lived a couple of blocks South or 1 block North).

Now it's a ghost town after dark and the turnover is astronomical. The former Barnes & Noble is vacant over 7 years, if you Google Maps 58 West 8th St you'll see the sign of a Real Estate Agency who's bankruptcy I testified as an expert witness in almost 20 years ago (yeah, that's how long it's been vacant). Stores routinely come and go in less than 2 years. Almost every long term tenant is gone. It used to be one of the destination spots for suburban kids when they said "let's go to 'The City' " and now it bubkas.

300,
For quite a long time commercial paid a significantly higher percentage of total Real Estate Tax collections. If people start walking away from residential Real Estate in Manhattan because cost of operating units doesn't have enough margin to rents the city may have to shift back towards that. Also as Brooklyn and Queens rents equalize with Manhattan Real Estate Taxes will as well. Even if the rental markets fall all over it will be interesting to see the relative drops between Brooklyn and Manhattan now that there are groups who actually have expressed preference for Brooklyn. I think the issue is whether those people will be exiting the city altogether, if not having to take a subway will shift there preference, etc.

@300 - I am prepared for NY to turn into something else entirely. I wrote on here elsewhere that in his last years, my Italian grandfather wrote about the New York he experienced between 1911-1934, and, while it bears no resemblance to the New York I have experienced, he clearly found joy in it (even though he faced such discrimination when he left his neighborhood that he camouflaged his Italian identity, a practice which he maintained through his professional career).

Whatever New York city turns into it will still be New York City, one of the greatest cities in the world! Quite honestly I loved it significantly more in the seventies, eighties and nineties. I have great memories spanning those three decades!

Most of Manhattan has been a homogenized Uber City for many years now. This is why so many of our clients and so many of my friends moved to Brooklyn long ago. You can still find the little shops, neighborhood bakeries and cafes throughout much of Brooklyn. Just because you live in NYC doesn't mean you can't still work from home.

Keith
TBG

Keith,
Saw that one of your listings I previously wrote about just had a price reduction. If the stock market keeps going up (I got some good stuff on the bottom), maybe I will be in the market :)). Beautiful place and the price seems like a steal even during COVID uncertainty. https://streeteasy.com/building/324-east-41-street-new_york/901c

We had an accepted offer, Buyers company decided not to relocate him to New York City. Contract was supposed to be signed on Friday!

Keith

"Whatever New York city turns into it will still be New York City, one of the greatest cities in the world!"

Agreed. And, fortunately, it will be a significant less expensive city to live in for many years to come!

Keith, that sucks. I am sure someone else will come along!

Is the market down?

If the real estate market were open, I think you would be surprised by the activity, all things considered. Currently we cannot physically show homes. I'm personally seeing a decent uptick in requests for showings (zoom) as well as new client calls. We currently have 3 new accepted offers (had 4 until 41st street fell out of bed).

It's a tedious process, and certainly not near where we should be. However the market is showing signs of life, with all the obstacles to operate normally, it's difficult to gauge where things could be. I think Fall activity may surprise some of you, especially if stocks keep pounding and we get proven therapeutics and closer to a vaccine. We'll see. Currently most buyers I'm working with are happy with a 7-9% discount from an appropriately priced home.

Keith
TBG

$28 billion in annual property taxes, about 45% of NYC's annual tax revenues. It has been going up a few billion per year. Add in other real estate taxes, it is about $32 billion, and 53% of total annual revenues. The money has to come from somewhere. The expanding socialist agenda from CIty Hall has been funded nearly entirely from the teet of wildly escalating property taxes. A fundamental shift in values will leave a disaster in its wake.

Or, NYC_sport, the city could just tax incomes.

@Keith,

The word most often used is schadenfreude

Just saw another property on my watchlist reappear for sale after having gone into contract in January.

Yes, Front_Porch, you can raise income taxes, even though NYC is one of only three cities with any income tax. That also requires approval in Albany. Beyond that, if the point of this thread is that high earners are leaving the city, who are you going to tax? NYS is already going to be chomping at the bit to raise taxes to cover the Corona virus hole on top of an already existing crater.

I've had two friends who both just bought in the surburbs after years of city living once they found out that remote working will be continued into 2021. These friends both work for major banks and it looks as if they will only need to go to Wall St a couple of days a week at most. Another friend decamped to the Hudson Valley and just decided to stay through June 2021. And one other friend just listed his place ($3MM) thinking he has 3 months to sell before the market is hammered.

Having just spent the long weekend outside the city, I can vouch for a significantly lower level of anxiety around daily activities. You no longer panic about being in an elevator, or going to the supermarket -- you walk out the door and find a completely uncrowded store. Even if the retail and restaurants come back, there's a cost to that ongoing anxiety.

The NYT reported "5 percent of residents — or about 420,000 people — left the city between March 1 and May 1. In the city’s very wealthiest blocks, in neighborhoods like the Upper East Side, the West Village, SoHo and Brooklyn Heights, residential population decreased by 40 percent or more." Those people are not coming back until next year, best case scenario. I'm considering joining them.

I feel like our building is a microcosm to the extent we have shareholders who expect a level of service that they aren’t willing to pay for, expecting more from those who do the manual labor that keeps them in the comfort to which they feel entitled so they can overextend themselves elsewhere (e.g., second home in the Hamptons). I’d be delighted for all of these types to leave the city and let the city become what it will after that. Sure, I live in an apartment that many of my same wealth level seem to feel beneath them, but it is a value judgment. I support the taxes both income and real estate, all the while recognizing the gross inefficiencies in the use thereof. Agree NYC management system is terrible, but point me to a place that does it better.

And I fully admit that I am cranky because our building just voted to eliminate a full-time staff position to reduce maintenance rather than paying down the mortgage (which would reduce maintenance by an amount significantly more than the payroll savings realized by the elimination of a human job).

“This week I asked the state of New York for help. I asked the state of New York to give us a fallback, give us a safety net,” de Blasio said. “It’s something we need as a last resort if our federal government isn’t there for us, if we’re going to maintain basic services here in the city.”

De Blasio said any possible cuts made by the city would affect "all agencies.” It's unclear whether the city might consider tax measures as well.

“There is literally no way that we can solve this problem without federal help or without having to make very, very painful choices that will affect the quality of life in this city, our ability to provide basic services and how many people we’re able to employ to support you in the middle of a pandemic,” he added.

God help us. Any aid should be conditioned on the Feds wresting control of the NYC budget from De Blasio.

I fully admit to not following NYC politics and speaking from a position of general ignorance on NYC financial management, so I am curious to know what those who are fleeing the city would do were they in charge? Where would they make cuts? de Blasio's point about having to make painful choices seems well taken. That is exactly the conversation we have in our building's meeting. Time and time again, people choose to borrow to maintain a service level they cannot afford; people aren't going to get it until police protection and waste removal services go by the wayside.

MCR - would paying down the mortgage require a a onetime or ongoing special assessment ?

These are the dials you can turn:

Increase revenues:
- raise income taxes
- raise property taxes
- raise sales taxes
- other assessments

Cut costs:
- education
- police
- firefighters
- sanitation
- transportation
- social services

Pick your poison. None of it is good.

@ph41 - I favor a whopping one-time assessment that shareholders could finance if they needed to via increase to their personal mortgages on their apartments if they have one or via HELOC. Then they get to retain all the benefits they see in borrowing vs paying up front. I could not care less what anyone does in their private financial management and there are excellent reasons to maintain a mortgage on one's primary residence. My gripe is with mortgaging a jointly held asset when there is no good reason to and all the reasons not to. From where I sit, the only people who would object to shifting the debt away from the corporate balance sheet to individual balance sheets are those who are living beyond their means and have already exhausted their personal borrowing limit. Not cool. Would love to hear from anyone who disagrees.

@yournamehere - agree. I suspect many want to cut social services, but they need to see what that does to a city in the long run. As I said to another poster in another context, when the next revolution comes, I hope to personally be dead, but if I am still alive when it does, I plan to offer no resistance.

"point me to a place that does it better."

Where to start ... maybe with the MTA:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/nyregion/new-york-subway-construction-costs.html

Note the comparison to Paris, which builds similar subway track using the same equipment for 1/6th the cost of NY, despite having laborers who are represented by a Communist trade union.

"On a recent afternoon at a Line 14 construction site, an official expressed disbelief that New York was spending so much.

“We’re not trying to rip anybody off.”

Somewhere else that does it better: Florida

https://nypost.com/2020/01/14/new-york-spends-twice-as-much-as-florida-to-keep-things-running/

Example: NY has 31% more teachers and administrators than Florida to serve the same size population, and NY has worse educational outcomes.

@ George - No fair picking discrete data points. You have to look at the total package. Do you really think Paris government puts out a better total product than NYC? Same with Florida. Don't get me wrong; I have lived in Paris and have spent a lot of time in Florida. Both have their redeeming traits, and I might even prefer Paris, but certainly not for its efficient government. I feel like Paris is more expensive than New York overall for a similar standard of living for me personally, but I will admit that I have not run the numbers or looked for real estate there.

My constant refrain when I lived in Paris was "why doesn't anything work here?!" And don't get me started on les greves.

And, even if you were to come out with Paris does it overall better, compare the tax systems. I wholly support something like the Impot de Solidarité sur la Fortune (ISF) in the U.S., even though it would a hit to my personal spending power. In other words, if you think Paris does it better, they pay a pretty penny for what they get.

Perhaps we'll get another Emergency Financial Control Board and municipal assistance corp. Although I don't think we're quite there yet, the federal government will reluctantly make the loan to NYC if needed, just like Ford did in 1975.

Who's going to play Felix Rohytan? 30?

Was just having the Rohatyn conversation with a friend earlier today. Barring Federal assistance, that’s what we’re likely looking at.

There is a chance that Biden wins and the Senate flips.

Is there any way we can claw back the half billion that Bill gave Chirlane to throw a party for her friends?

The difference between European cities and NYC is that European cities tend to be significant net beneficiaries of the nationwide tax base, whereas NYC subsidizes the rest of the state, and the rest of the country. Still, as MCR points out, no high income individual would find many European tax, management and spending systems more efficient or advantageous.

NYC does not subsidize the rest of the state for the taxes assessed by the city, which are enormous, on both property and income, not to mention extra city fees on everything from vehicle registrations to gun licenses. Indeed, for a long time, the Federal government subsidized wealthy NYCers through the SALT.

The comparison of the cost of schools and the MTA are perfectly apt. Did you read the article? The level of corruption is astonishing. The French, English, Swiss, and Germans would never tolerate what we tolerate here - maybe Italy and Greece would, but they are basket cases. Even les greves in France are more of occasional inconveniences than bald corruption of the scale we see in NY. During the metro strike last year, the automated lines such as #1 kept running -- in NY, every train must have two conductors because the union demands it. And let's not get started on the scams run on the LIRR to jack-up the last year's wages to produce pension payouts larger than any year of actual work, along with blatant falsification of hours records. Even the French blush at that.

I once did a real apples-to-apples comparison of France vs. NYC. If you add in all social charges, all taxes, property taxes on a comparable apartment (incl taxe d'habitation), and the cost of health insurance in the US, you come out to about the same "take" by the government for a family of 4 with $500K income, i.e. a middle class New Yorker -- roughly 59% in France and 57% in NYC. (I didn't include wealth tax since it's been gutted in France.) At least for their 59%, the French get 6 weeks of vacation, free child care from age 6 weeks, an army of street sweepers (in the good neighborhoods), functional motorways, parks that don't rely on private donations to stay afloat, high-speed rail that runs at 3X the speed of Acela... I could go on.

One very layman observation I had about (most) of Europe since my first visit to France in 1982, the vast majority of people live a much less stressful and more comfortable life than the average American, including more quality of life. I know there's a lot more to talk about and compare, but that was my very anecdotal initial impression, even with the many social changes, still holds true in my opinion.

Keith

There have been a fair number of NYC public school teachers in my family. One of the dirty little secrets of the system is that disruptive students get shuffled of to Special Education where the costs per student are enormous. This is what ends up forcing huge class sizes in "regular" class rooms. It's also what has pushed the huge boom in Charter Schools because simple removing the Special Ed issue frees up enough funds for everyone else to give them a decent education. AFAIK at this point almost 1/4 of all NYC public school students are in Special Ed.

Listings up, contract signings down.
https://therealdeal.com/2020/05/26/manhattan-home-listings-are-up-while-contracts-limp-along/

@George - I read the article, but generally turned against it when I felt it was implying that the sandhogs are overpaid. I really enjoy your posts and have wondered what your profession is because you appear learned in quite a number of areas. I will be sad to see you leave NYC because then we won't get the benefit of your posts on this forum, but I suspect it is inevitable. You remind me of many I know who would never dream of living in NY to begin with for the reasons you cite, as well as a few who have left the city for the reasons you cite. NYC is definitely not for everyone. I will grant you that the corruption is the most objectionable aspect to the city for me and was the hardest aspect for me to wrap my head around, and I don't like what it says about me that I seem to be learning to live with it. Twenty years ago I would have been inclined to try to reform what I see; at this point, I have given in to just navigating it.

@30yrs - I was following a voting rights case based on objections to school board elections in Ramapo, NY that educated me on that dirty little secret. However, that case had an interesting twist. If I understood it correctly, the allegations appeared to be that one group of citizens decided to exploit that Special Ed provision and affirmatively get their kids classified as needing Special Ed so they could fund their own private schools. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/27/school-board-east-ramapo-public-school-funding-private-yeshivas

Mcr, Problem with unions in the city in general is not overpay but needing 2 people to do the job of 1 person, lot of teachers whose performance is so poor that they are in the rubber room but not fired, and abusing overtime. I saw 3 people change a light bulb in the subway. One holding the ladder which was “A” type ladder, one on the ladder actually changing the bulb and other one just watching.

And due to easy transportation (vs needing a car) and generous welfare and century city policies, NYC attracts poor from all over the country and illegal immigrants. Then we have particular ethnic religious groups with multiple children who are in cash businesses and use Medicaid generously.

Century = sanctuary

And if you look through the spending per student by school, most money per student is spent on special ed and special needs schools which NYC has more of as a percentage of population vs the rest of the country.

Rubber room for those not familiar
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2019/11/02/nyc-pays-rubber-room-teacher-six-figures-20-years-after-sex-abuse-claims/amp/

@300_mercer: Every New Yorker I know gets benefits from the immigrants who work illegally that they probably take for granted. Simple example: Getting a manicure costs a fraction in NY of what it costs in other cities. I would be interested to see statistics comparing what the underground economy saves the consumer versus what it costs the taxpayer.
And, on the Special Needs schools, check out that East Ramapo case - the allegations were that a segment of the community gamed the system to get all their kids classified as "special needs" so they could use publicly funded vouchers to send them to "special ed" private schools that they created. Here is a better article on it: https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2017/11/another-blow-to-one-of-americas-most-controversial-school-board/546227/

To be clear- my posts re the Special Ed issue are intended to concede the point. That does seem to be an area that is ripe for reform. I don't follow education stuff at all, but I am not aware of anybody who defends it as it is. Same with DeBlasio - I don't know a single New Yokrer who voted for him or can stand him at all, but not being informed myself, I can't judge him on that, because I also don't know a single Brit who liked Tony Blair, and I personally thought he was dreamy (until I read about his affair with Wendy Deng).

You just have to get out of Manhattan (except Staten Island) to see who votes for De Blasio. One time we were driving back from CT via Bronx and upper Manhattan and my wife realized why De Blasio gets elected.

I hope my point was clear about unions - not the pay but worker output and goosed up pensions with overtime.

Is the consumer benefit in terms of lower consumer cost distributed in proportion to $ taxes paid?
“I would be interested to see statistics comparing what the underground economy saves the consumer versus what it costs the taxpayer. “

Separately, on moving out of NY, I believe unless you move to a real red state, most of the places where college educated successful people want to live are either Blue or Purple soon turning blue. So NJ and CT are worse than NY in terms of taxes and what you get for those taxes in my opinion once commute is added in.

I voted for de Blasio because I thought that ending stop-and-frisk and starting universal pre-K were both good ideas that would make the city markedly better. I stand by that vote, though I think he's been in over his head on a number of other things.

I think I've told this story before: there are two "ego photos" in my office: one of me and de Blasio, and one of me and Trump. Each client who comes in (well, back when I could be in my office) is invited to turn one of the photos to face the wall.

ali r.

I have one with Joe DiMaggio.

There are purple and blue states that are well-governed, including Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Also you're assuming that people will commute every day. Several of the big tech companies in the Bay Area are scrambling to build new offices in areas like North Carolina, Utah, and Texas as their staff seek to get away from expensive and poorly governed cities. Some NY companies without satellite offices are considering Stamford or Morristown to let staff avoid public transit. So the commute, if it happens, isn't so bad.

Ultimately leadership matters. Macron has started a new wave of investment and dynamism for France, as did Merkel in Germany. So did Guiliani in NY and Rendell in Phila. The opposite is also true, and that's my biggest worry until Blas is out and hopefully someone more competent takes his place.

Telecommuting and outsourcing are nothing new. But when it comes to getting laid off, you want your boss to have a personal connection. Also, there is a huge knowledge and idea exchange which takes place in person. That is what the socialist politician in NY and San Fran / Silicon Valley thrive on. Of the states you mention, perhaps Denver is the only option for people who want to live in a city. But not many high paying jobs there.

And all the insource people in Salt Lake, NC etc are $70-150k type of people who aren’t Manhattan buyers.

George,
Who do you see as possibilities to be the next Mayor of NYC and which ones do think would be good for NYC?

I have no idea on the next mayor except that this Adams guy seems worse than Blas. What I do know is that many of the jobs going to places like Charlotte, Raleigh, Denver, SLC, Austin, Nashville, Miami, etc are senior software engineering jobs that pay well into the 6 figures plus potential million-dollar paydays at exit. Starting engineer comp is around $150k at the employers of choice, running up to around $500k, which is comparable to investment banking pay. Startups will try to hit such numbers with more shares and less cash. It's no longer call centers and clerks going to the barren hinterlands.

@300_mercer: "Is the consumer benefit in terms of lower consumer cost distributed in proportion to $ taxes paid?" Yes, that is my question. I also understood your point on the union inefficiency, and I have such mixed feelings on unions with insufficient data that I know I am not equipped to discuss that issue in any real depth. Again, I was raised in a very conservative background and educated by Libertarian economists, so I am familiar with all the tropes. Let's just say that my search for "truth" in that area has been unsatisfying at best.

@Ali - I think I'd have turn both around!
@30yrs - Now you're talking; we can all get behind The Yankee Clipper.

Nice 30!

Finally, to George's point: Two of our favorite families just decamped with one going to Austin, and the other going to Denver.

We know a couple families currently holed up in Houston and Phoenix who are debating when/whether to return. One rents, one owns.

Well Austin has some real advantages: university town, tech, music, arts, and no income tax.

No state income tax