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Prices are NOT Down 20%

Started by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
Discussion about
I don't care what the Beige book and Miller Samuel say. FIne me one apartment that has sold for 20% LESS than it's original purchase price. Go ahead. FIND ME ONE.
Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

When was that original purchase price? 1959?

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

The peak of the market.

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Response by manhattanfox
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1275
Member since: Sep 2007

when was the peak? they way you write it -- it should be here next week, right?

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

And the point is that current asking prices are 20% less than the peak.

Nonetheless, here I'll give you an example:

http://350bleecker.com/policy/sales.html

08/23/07 2P $1,300,000

Apartment 4G is currently listed at:

4G 2-BR $1,149,000

It has 194 shares versus 187 for apartment 2P. 2P sold for $6,952 per share. 4G is OFFERED at $5,923 per share. (6952 - 5876) / 6952 = 15%.

In fact, however, the price differential between the two apartments is much higher than the share differential, as one is on the 2nd floor facing West 10th Street, and the other is on Charles Street with an Empire State Building view.

Nonetheless, if we assume that 4G sells for $1.1 million we get $5,670 per share. (6952 - 5670) / 6952 = 18.4%.

That's enough proof until the apartment sells (if it does).

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

4G is OFFERED at $5,876.

Sorry!

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Response by jgr
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 345
Member since: Dec 2008

Still in the denial phase, sad.

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

Find me a 1 bedroom that sold for $500,000 last year and is now listed for $300,000 and I will buy it tomorrow.

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

correction: listed for $400,000.

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Response by jgr
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 345
Member since: Dec 2008

First it was "FIne me one apartment that has sold for 20% LESS than it's original purchase price. Go ahead. FIND ME ONE."

Steve comes up with an example. You don't like it because it shows that you are an idiot so now you are changing your request to one bedrooms?

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Response by mimi
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1134
Member since: Sep 2008

Many of them are not 20% off yet, but this one, at the Normandie, 119th & Lenox, is a bit more than 20% down from the purchase price, and more than 30% less than the original listing price:

Previous sale closed for $1,125,000
01/10/2008
Listed in StreetEasy by Elliman at $1,275,000
03/14/2008
Price decreased to $1,225,000
05/17/2008
Price decreased to $1,195,000
05/31/2008
Price decreased to $1,149,000
06/19/2008
Price decreased to $1,049,000
08/11/2008
Price decreased to $949,000
10/22/2008
Price decreased to $875,000

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

119th street? Come on, can't you do better than that? I would never buy north of 86th St.

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Response by positivecarry
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 704
Member since: Oct 2008

You're polishing the brass on the Titanic. I'm going to come back to this post in 12 months and we'll all have a big laugh about it. We're facing the worst economy you'll ever see in your lifetime, and you're refusing to admit we're in the shitcan. It's not just about what you can see today AT THIS MOMENT, but where the market is headed. I'm sure plenty of people will respond with examples (isn't there a entire frickin thread on this topic?) by the next time I log on.

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Response by jgr
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 345
Member since: Dec 2008

"119th street? Come on, can't you do better than that? I would never buy north of 86th St."

haha and now the restriction is south of 86th. Soon it will be, South of 86th, north of 79th, between 5th and Park.

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

Well, OK, if it means that much to you:

220 Riverside Blvd
11/10/2005 #4A $1,049,000
10/29/2008 #4A $823,179 (-21.5%)

11/10/2005 #4B $1,049,000
10/08/2008 #4B $835,000 (-20.4%)

And November 2005 wasn't even the peak. The peak was:
09/06/2007 #5A $1,125,000

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

Picking apartments in the ghetto is cherry picking.

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Response by jgr
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 345
Member since: Dec 2008

There's a whole thread on this. Suggest you read it to familiarize yourself with the state of the market.

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

Re. 220 RSB, I'm aware that #4A was a foreclosure sale. I think #4B was headed in the same direction when the owner sold it. Since much of the U.S. real estate market now consists of foreclosures, I don't see any reason to exclude them. If you're serious about pegging values, you almost have to include them.

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

I would exclude foreclosures for Manahttan since there are very few of them. The foreclosure rate is 1:50,000

And for the bui8ldings at RSB (Trump Place), not only was 4A a foreclosure sale, but so was 3A at 200 RSB. Trump Place is an exceptionalyly distressed buidling and you would be hard pressed to find similar declines at other complexes.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

west81st, didn't you know that riverside boulevard is the ghetto? :)

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

Never said that RSB is the ghetto. However, 119th St. is.

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Response by mimi
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1134
Member since: Sep 2008

Alpine darling, there are a couple of threads about Harlem in SE where several sideliners stated that owners there are more stubbornly anchored than in the rest of Manhattan.. I could buy in the UWS but I REALLY prefer Harlem. Call me crazy. I used to like the UES when it wasn't yuppie, and I left Tribeca when it got devoid of artists and full of lawyers and traders....just a matter of taste. I can't give you examples in any other area, because this is the only one I'm looking at...

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Response by julia
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007

the 20% reduction is great but how overpriced were these apts to begin with..lowering a $2m apart. by 20% means nothing if the apartment is worth $1.3m.

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Response by cherrywood
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 273
Member since: Feb 2008

Actually, 119th Street is in Manhattan last I checked.

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

alpine292... take a deep breath... these people are all crazy... just buy real estate and don't worry about the current market... you've got to live somewhere... these people are all like "doom" and "gloomers"... don't throw away your money on rent.. and lastly trust your borker.

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

OK, nothing north of 86th... no foreclosures... no "distressed" buildings (whatever that means)... plus there's the initial, highly restrictive requirement of a repeat sale of the exact same apartment. Alpine, do you have any idea how nutty this exercise is becoming?

In what sense is Trump Place "distressed"? The buildings themselves are fine. The heat works. The services and amenities are still working. The Hudson River hasn't moved. As far as I can tell, the only problem on RSB is that there are more eager sellers than buyers. If that imbalance makes Trump Place an outlier, then clearly anyplace where prices are declining will be an outlier in your view.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

You always have a few in denial, all the way to the bottom...

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

REPEAT sales are the best way to track prices. This is the same way that the Case Shiller Index tracks prices... by REPEAT sales, not the median. So while difficult, tracking only repeat sales is NOT impossible.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> tracking only repeat sales is NOT impossible.

Neither is outrageous denial.

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

I prefer to follow the NY Case Shiller Index, and that only shows a decline of 7.3%.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Only if you can't count.... it was down 11.3% through September.

Denier mistakenly "forgot" to include the first year of declines, and only counted the second.

Yes, my stock fell this week and last week, but last week doesn't count, it was so long ago.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> I prefer to follow the NY Case Shiller Index, and that only shows a decline of 7.3%.

You know, we called this months ago... the bulls complained about bears using Case Shiller because it didn't include Manhattan. Totally amusing that now that we actually have manhattan data, suddenly they love Case Shiller.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

seriously, alpine, what is your motivation here?

Why do you want to cover up the stats? Ignoring the manhattan stats, "accidentally" dropping a year of declines from case shiller. Why are you so interested in folks not having the correct data?

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

I have to admit that I'm biased toward the Case Shiller since the only RE I own is in Bergen County, NJ and that is included in the index.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Then shouldn't you at least try and use it correctly?

Its already in double digit decline, and you're trying to claim a 7% drop?

Seriously, what is with the dishonesty?

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

I did not try to hide a year of declines. I said that prices are down 7.3% YEAR OVER YEAR, not peak through. And 11% isn't that much more than 7% so quit complaining.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Also, what does Bergen county have to do with your "manhattan is not down 20%" claims?

Why do you need to cover up the data coming out for manhattan if you don't live there?

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> I did not try to hide a year of declines.

Sure you did. You left it out completely, and didn't even caveat it...

"I prefer to follow the NY Case Shiller Index, and that only shows a decline of 7.3%. "

Its like me saying Manhattan RE is only down 1%, I'm doing day over day numbers.

Its called selective data ranges.... it is dishonesty.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> And 11% isn't that much more than 7% so quit complaining.

Wow, now we're REALLY into denial territory.

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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

I intend to buy in Manhattan soon and I have yet to see 20% drops in prime areas. When I see them everywhere (not just a few pockets), I will shut up.

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

Bingo!... Alpine NJ... Nice area... but way way way over-priced.... get out while you can! Get yourself a broker or two... and watch as they magically pull a price out of their inner guts and speak in tongues... quite cool to watch.... Dude just live in your house and don't worry about what's happening to our little island and its RE prices.... gonna have no effect on Jersey esp. Bergen (too far of a commute)...

:)

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Hmm.... earlier today you asked for just one example. Now you want multiple.

But if you're saying you wanted comparisons vs. old sales, that doesn't gel at all with you saying you want to buy.

You only need prices down 20% from old sales.

And, by gosh... plenty of those around, check the threads.

But, if you REALLY are so interested in buying, why are you spending your time denying instead of looking for deals? If you truly wanted to buy, you would be hurting your own cause.

Sorry, but this just stinks of absolute dishonesty to me.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> areas. When I see them everywhere (not just a few pockets), I will shut up.

Btw, the price chops thread has 'em... well, everywhere.

Put up or shut up...

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

Alpine, alpine, alpine: you've been given multiple instances of 20% falls, and you reject each one: Harlem, 1-bedroom not 2-bedroom (my example), cherry-picking.

Fess up. Prices are down 20% in 6 months, and will be down another 30% in the next 6 months.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

I think I called this a while back... we'll never get the deniers to admit error.

They'll eventually just get to "yes, the entire country is down 50%, but not MY place, its different."

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

Yorkville is becoming a real horrow show.

1641 Third Avenue #35H
01/29/2008 Previous sale closed for $1,225,000
11/25/2008 Price decreased to $899,000

Down 26.6% and still not in contract, despite having one of Corcoran's top guns working it.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

This isn't prime. I mean I'm only including east facing condop buildings. I mean brick buildings don't count.

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Response by Trompiloco
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 585
Member since: Jul 2008

More Yorkville bloodbath:
1725 York Ave.
3H sold for 855K in Aug2008
4H is asking 699K right now.
18% down, and that's just ask.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

You can't use that example either. That apartment has CEILINGS! Everyone knows ceilings are non-prime.

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Response by Trompiloco
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 585
Member since: Jul 2008

Yeah, and also the only ones that count are Manhattan apartments with direct views of Bergen County, NJ, 'cause the prices in BC have not fallen and will never fall. Buy now or be priced out foreverrrr!

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Response by farquhar
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 124
Member since: Jun 2008

To be more specific, prime only includes apartments with prayer sanctuaries that face Alpine, NJ.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"And 11% isn't that much more than 7% so quit complaining."

11% is 57% more than 7%. (7 * 1.57 = 10.99).

"I intend to buy in Manhattan soon and I have yet to see 20% drops in prime areas."

I gave you an example in prime West Village. I'd wait for another 40% drop, though.

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Response by farquhar
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 124
Member since: Jun 2008

By the way, what techniques do you think the brokerages will use to manipulate the #s so that the decline doesn't seem so dramatic?

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Response by Topper
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008

Although there are, indeed, some examples of 20%+ declines, I'd be surprised if Manhattan prices "on average" are down 20% from their peaks (Q208?).

I generally like to look at the Miller Samuel condo/coop Manhattan price per square foot measure. That'll be coming out in January and we will see. I'm guessing it'll be more in the 10% to 15% decline range.

I'm still of the view that this will be a "slow motion" train wreck - not a quick nasty tumble. We won't see prices "starting" to bottom out until the end of 2010. Even thereafter prices are likely to "flatline" at best for a period of years.

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Response by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008

farquhar: Not sure what the exact technique will be. The general approach will be to pollute the sample with contracts that were signed in '07 or early '08. For example, on the Upper West Side, closings will begin soon at the Harrison. That's a huge number of high-value deals that were signed at peak prices.

Because contract volume in recent months has been so low, it will be easy to present median and mean closing prices that are skewed dramatically upward by older deals that are still in the closing pipeline.

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Response by Topper
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008

That's why I prefer to look at the world in terms of the Miller Samuel "price per square foot." Admittedly, not perfect, but it does at least partially address the "mix" question.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> To be more specific, prime only includes apartments with prayer sanctuaries that face Alpine, NJ.

LOL.

> "And 11% isn't that much more than 7% so quit complaining."

That goes to the quote board...

> Although there are, indeed, some examples of 20%+ declines, I'd be surprised if
> Manhattan prices "on average" are down 20% from their peaks (Q208?).

Then... Surprise!
Thats what the averages say. The 20% nummber is miller samuel data median decline for Nov.

> I'm still of the view that this will be a "slow motion" train wreck - not a quick nasty tumble.

I thought that, too originally. But because we didn't start declining until the absolute market panic begin in October, my mind has been changed. And, the data backs that up. I'm not saying the decline will FINISH quickly, but I think nasty is here. Unless the market turns up in Dec (sure) you are now talking about the fastest decline in the country... faster than Vegas, Miami, or CA...

> We won't see prices "starting" to bottom out until the end of 2010. Even thereafter prices are
> likely to "flatline" at best for a period of years.

I don't disagree... in fact I could see it being longer to bottom even (87 crash took till 91 for it to happen). I just think that comes after a quick initial tumble.

It does make logical sense. NYC was in denial. And now that the denial-shattering data is here, that is going to change some minds very quickly. Not all, but there is already panic in the streets. Just look at the broker whisper numbers.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> By the way, what techniques do you think the brokerages will use to manipulate the #s so that the
> decline doesn't seem so dramatic?

Their standard technique.... lying.

Just look at alpine's posts for an idea how this works.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> That's why I prefer to look at the world in terms of the Miller Samuel "price per square foot."
> Admittedly, not perfect, but it does at least partially address the "mix" question.

No, it only addresses the SIZE mix, which is not the big complaint. I think it barely touches the mix issue.

The mix issue usually refers to high end / low end. The biggest mix factor talked about is CPW, and thats not a size issue, its a "this building will always have higher than average psf" issue...

The second mix factor usually mentioned is location.... the complaint that Harlem apartments are pulling down the median mix, etc. Going psf doesn't factor that out, either.

In the ideal world, we'd have a Case Shiller manhattan number, but we don't. And since we used median on the way up - with all its flaws - its fair to look at it on the way down. Given that we're also looking at specific resales at the same time (I love the thread on this) I'm relatively comfortable with this as a market overview.

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Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008

everyone needs to stop looking for the golden ticket to a perfect view of the market. that ticket doesn't exist. there is not one perfect way to assess current market conditions. instead, you need to look at a variety of data points. based on putting my finger to the wind, the MS data, the comp analysis on these boards, the off-the-cliff decline in volume, and following about fifty apartments in the village and chelsea, i am thoroughly convinced that the market is off more than 20%--in some segments of the market i'd say significantly more. am i convinced that the reports for q4 will show that? of course not. those reports will include old contracts and there is always the issue of a changing mix of units. the reports will be important data to consider, but not the only data, just like the comp analysis on this board is relevant but not definitive.

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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

"I generally like to look at the Miller Samuel condo/coop Manhattan price per square foot measure."

It doesn't correct for changes in inventory. Case Shiller methodology applied to Manhattan is far more accurate.

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Response by Topper
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008

Thanks, all, for interesting perspectives.

Just one question, nyc10022:

I thought MS data was quarterly. Do they also provide monthly numbers - (per your comment about November)?

Thanks.

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Response by AdamM
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 42
Member since: Nov 2008

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123008658345032311.html

How about close to 30% on the upper west side?

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

"I thought MS data was quarterly. Do they also provide monthly numbers - (per your comment about November)?"

You are correct generally (in their formal reports), but they did for the fed beige book... thats how the numbers are out. Its the same data.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

"everyone needs to stop looking for the golden ticket to a perfect view of the market. that ticket doesn't exist. there is not one perfect way to assess current market conditions. instead, you need to look at a variety of data points. based on putting my finger to the wind, the MS data, the comp analysis on these boards, the off-the-cliff decline in volume, and following about fifty apartments in the village and chelsea, i am thoroughly convinced that the market is off more than 20%--in some segments of the market i'd say significantly more. am i convinced that the reports for q4 will show that? of course not. those reports will include old contracts and there is always the issue of a changing mix of units. the reports will be important data to consider, but not the only data, just like the comp analysis on this board is relevant but not definitive."

Agreed, and well said. The challenge is that you will have deniers who will see problems with any data short of God coming to their house and affixing a price sign, and will use the imperfections as "proof" their denial is ok.

Data will ALWAYS be imperfect, you are talking about RE, a not very liquid market of snowflakes (no 2 alike). Those in denial will miss the trends, but so will those waiting around for the perfect proof.

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Response by Topper
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008

Many thanks, nyc10022. Pretty interesting.

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

Pls refrain from putting any units with ceilings as it distorts the price discovery process.... Cheers...!

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Response by Trompiloco
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 585
Member since: Jul 2008

To continue with the topic, 10-15% down in 4 months, if it turns out to be that and not more, is the fastest decline on record. I mean, the annualized of that would be 30%-45% down. So, Topper, I think that qualifies as "nasty".

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Response by jifjif
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 232
Member since: Sep 2007

Lots of places where prices are down 10-15%+ but ones I like and want are only down from 2-5%

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> Lots of places where prices are down 10-15%+ but ones I like and want are only down from 2-5%

Thats not what the math says. If there are apartments "only" down 2-5%, that means others are down 30% to balance that out. 15-20% is the median (average) down..

Btw, where have you seen these apartments "only" down 2%, anyway?

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Response by nointerest
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 69
Member since: Dec 2008

location dictates price declines.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

income and fear determine price declines...

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Response by nyc10022
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

(bump)

just too funny.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

Alpine..aka: suburbanite

I think to get any traction on your silly OP, you need to up the anty now to 30% since your 20% question is clearly in the rear view mirror.

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

p09 - your last post is of more than passing interest to me as I am currently looking closely at a new listing that I think the agent is trying to price off the high sales of comparable apartments in the building. I'd pay 30% down from there given the chance. Can you - if it's easy - show me some comps to use to make the argument that down 30% from all time hi's in a given location might be appropriate? Ask me for more details if that question doesn't make sense. Tanks in advance

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Response by ny3654
over 16 years ago
Posts: 33
Member since: Mar 2009

20% bellow 2008 level:
200 EAST 36 street
4c in 2008 - 570K
11c in 2009 - 485K

300 east 54 street
16B in 2008 - 629K
29b in 2009 - 475K

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

I am not advocating the point that prices are down 30%. They are clearly down 20% though. Those comps are a dime a dozen and an agent worth their commission will provide you dozens, if not hundreds of those. I was commenting to ALPINE, because 30% is harder to come by, but I'm sure its out there somewhere.

If you want the thread to do the work, publish the following to avoid the naysayers. plus it would be easier to present to the seller
hood?
price range?
number bedrooms?
baths?
height? floor?
qualitiy building? doorman etc..

example..
UES between 1st-3rd
3bd 2.5 bath
1mm-3mm
doorman, above 5th floor

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Response by Rhino86
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

Why hasn't Alpine posted in a while? The premise of a NJ burbanite defending Manhattan...When the facts of the decline are now in Q1 reports...honestly.

Can I offer one more thing? For the record, this does not need to be the worst recession since the depression for Manhattan to be cut in a cool half. 2002 was a mild recession that ended with tech stocks less then half. My point? It was because tech stocks were so fucking ridiculous at the peak, that you didn't need a profound crash of the economy to crush them. Analogy: Paying a price to rent of 30x or more for a condo in Manhattan is no less ridiculous. A 2% cap rate on residential real estate is no less ridiculous. So bears, please stop saying that after Manhattan values triple in 10 years, that cutting them in half requires some hell on earth scenario. Your hell on earth scenario would cut them in quarter...from 30x to 7x, that is...plenty of precedent, ignorami.

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Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Patient09, yes they are discernibly down often to the tune of 20%. And closings obviously lag contracts. I think the next quarterly report will be stunning, and the numbers will be skewed because of the conforming issue, but the press which is generally just looking for a great story will run with this. And if the stock market behaves as i suspect it will, we'll have a perfect shitstorm for NYC apartment sellers going into the summer doldrums.

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

p09 - here it is & thanks (I was sort of tempted not to post this but people will see this listing whether or not I show it to them):

#9D @ 151 w 86th street. Asking $3.4mn - http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/411396-coop-151-west-86th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Comps:

#10D @ 151 w 86th street. Sold for $3.5mn on 2/02/07 - http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/86264

#3D @ 151 w 86th street. Sold for $.395mn on 08/10/06 - http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/5668

So those were then, and this is now. Any & all thoughtful input on what an appropriate level for 9D is would be appreciated. Thanks in advance, Liquid.

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

#3d was $3.395mn - apologies.

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Response by alpine292
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

wow, a $100k discount on a $3.5 million apt. You guys are right. Prices in Manhattan are plummeting

So thanks for proving me right that prices have not declined 20%!

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Response by Rhino86
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

Wouldn't it be most appropriate not to buy? If you must...wouldn't a starting bid in a 25% down market be something like 35% down from 2008 peak? I don't have a sense of the market change from Q1 2007 to Q1 2008.

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Response by Rhino86
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

Alpine, right because they are guaranteed to get their ask. They look as delusional as you... But at least they have an emotional stake that somewhat explains theirs. What is your excuse? There are no shortage of listings that have simply ignored the DOCUMENTED decline.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

lp: best bet for 81 to chime in on this particular building.

Alpine: I thought we lost you on that other thread you were bleeding on.

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Response by skippy2222
over 16 years ago
Posts: 202
Member since: Jun 2008

Ok how about this. Everyone should agree 775 Park Ave. One of the 10 best Candela buildings in the city. Went out with a girl that lived there in mid 1980's. Absolutely perfect apt and building. Perfect UES address at 73rd street. 6D now asking $6,900,000 and last year 5D sold for $7,975,000. OK, maybe not 20%, but it hasn't sold/closed yet. If it closes for anythign under $6,400,000 there is the 20%.

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Response by Rhino86
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

I am not sure Alpine understands that prices actually mean selling prices....and not even recent prices, but currently attainable prices. The fact is most sellers would be lucky to get 80% of peak now that -20% has been published in a report...That might be too abstract a concept.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9877
Member since: Mar 2009

"Can I offer one more thing? .... etc."

I have been saying things similar to that to people in my office for a while now. You know, with stocks, they always talk about "support levels" that would be like a "fire break" in the market. You never hear (or at least I haven't heard) about such levels in NY Coop/Condos. I think the reason is that everyone is way too afraid to look at them (in "rational" Condo markets of the past, people were used to paying 100x monthly rent). Where would that put prices at?

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Response by liquidpaper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 309
Member since: Jan 2009

Rhino - so something like down 35% from $3.5mn or an opening offer of +/-$2.25mn - tku for taking the time. Much appreciated.

p09 - I'm sure I'll get west81's input in good time, was hoping to get yours as well as you have a good sense of the larger apartment market on the UWS as well. Others welcome also of course & thanks.

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Response by Rhino86
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

100 divided by 12...is 8.3x annual rent.... If my $5000 rental sold for $500k...That would be insane. If this building (86th & Madison) was a Condo... it would have probably peaked at like $1700/sqft and this is a 1250 apartment... Which would be $2.1mm. Which is easy to imagine for my rental relative to that shitty Brompton on 3rd. The problem is its not crazy to imagine -75%...which is why I think -50% is easy.

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Response by patient09
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008

Lp: I haven't been in the building. I will put a guesstimate on it tomorrow. Going to sleep now.

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Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

30yrs, exactly. What is the current "resistance" price? You don't know until the report comes out. Slows down the process, but the process goes on nonetheless.

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Response by streeteasyaddict
over 16 years ago
Posts: 121
Member since: Mar 2009

Alpine, I can find a dozen on the UWS:

375 West End Avenue
05/21/2004 Previous Sale recorded for $(insiders only)
06/06/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,450,000.
07/28/2008 Delisted temporarily.
01/06/2009 Re-listed by Corcoran.
01/06/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,299,000.
02/27/2009 Price decreased by 4% to $1,250,000.
03/10/2009 Price decreased by 4% to $1,200,000.
05/06/2009 Price decreased by 8% to $1,099,000.

5 Riverside Drive
04/02/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,795,000.
05/13/2008 Price decreased by 8% to $1,650,000.
07/07/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $1,545,000.
08/25/2008 Price decreased by 3% to $1,495,000.
11/04/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $1,399,000.
01/01/2009 Price decreased by 11% to $1,250,000.
03/05/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,175,000.
05/01/2009 Listing entered contract.

50 Riverside Drive
07/15/2004 Previous Sale recorded for $(insiders only)
07/22/2008 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,350,000.
01/12/2009 Halstead Property Listing is no longer available.
01/31/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Prudential Elliman at $1,195,000.
02/27/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $1,125,000.
03/13/2009 Price decreased by 3% to $1,095,000.
05/04/2009 Listing entered contract.

100 Riverside Drive
05/23/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,395,000.
07/09/2008 Price decreased by 7% to $1,295,000.
11/24/2008 Price decreased by 8% to $1,195,000.
01/11/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,075,000.
02/18/2009 Listing entered contract.

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Response by nyc10022
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

"So thanks for proving me right that prices have not declined 20%!"

Oh my lord, he really is this dumb...

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Response by stevejhx
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

You're right, alpine - they're not down 20%. They're down almost 30%.

350 Bleecker #4G just sold for $995,000. At the peak, 2P, same size but on a lower floor with no view facing West 10th Street rather than having an Empire State Building view on Charles Street, sold for $1.3 million.

Let's see: ($1,300,000 - $995,000) / $1,300,000 = 24% decrease for a lesser apartment, or 26% on a per-share basis.

These are real sales, not listing prices. 4G was listed for $1.49 million.

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Response by stevejhx
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

Sorry. $1.149 million listed.

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Response by stevejhx
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

I just want to remind the long-gone malraux of something:

malraux (about 13 months ago): "I'll make you a bet, because you're such a bully on these boards, and have such a big fuckin' mouth. Since you're forecasting a "...25% price decline in 1 year, 50% in 2....," I'll take you at your word. Here's the bet - if the terraced Village penthouse I bought in August 2007 goes down 25% from $1,200 psf (the buying price in August 2007) to $900 psf by August 1 of this year, I'll give you this penthouse, title clear. Alternatively, if it goes down 50% to $600 psf by August 1 2009, I'll give you the place, title clear - your choice if you want to take the 1- or 2- year bet."

Now then, malraux got it wrong - my original post said that, in April 2008, prices would be down 25% by April 2009, and 50% in April 2010, meaning that his "bet" was supposed to use those years not the ones he posted (he counted from 2007 instead of from 2008; I wasn't posting in 2007).

Seems like malraux owes me a "terraced Village penthouse."

malraux? weasel-boy? WHERE ARE YOU?!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3276-how-aggressive-are-you-these-days

Let us not forget evillager's post on that same thread: "steve, your comments just get more and more outlandish...."

This is a very, very useful thread, for all who are interested!

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Response by brodie
over 16 years ago
Posts: 64
Member since: Jan 2008

119 E 84th 5C with "gourmet windowed kitchen" now offered at 859k.
119 E 84th 6C also renovated kitchen sold for 1.04mm 2/19/08

07/11/2007 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $1,250,000.
07/24/2007 Price decreased by 8% to $1,150,000.
09/01/2007 Listing is no longer available.
09/18/2007 Re-listed by Corcoran.
10/16/2007 Price decreased by 5% to $1,095,000.
12/20/2007 Listing entered contract.
02/19/2008 Listing sold.
02/19/2008 Sale recorded for $1,040,000.

That's a 17% drop, using the offering on 5C. And 8C and 7C are also on the market, at $899k an $799k

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Response by alpine292
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

without the original sales price, those listings mean nothing streeteasyaddict

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Response by nyc10022
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

Wow.

Guys, don't think its worth it. Alpine clearly doesn't like facts, and the guy is in Jersey to Washingtno DC.

He doesn't know anything about Manhattan RE, and is making sure he never will.

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Response by w67thstreet
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

stevie.... yeh what happened to malraux.... he's the one that got into it with me with gonads and ovaries.... ahhhhhh the good old days....

Alpine292.... dude did you see 1965bway listing... it's 34% off.. and will shackburger you for the 6% when it's all said and done :)

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