It's Official: Rents are NOT falling

that '08...it's '09 that will be more telling of the economy in manhattan.

please only post negative news that can only be used to support Steve's and NYC10022 fearmongering on real estate.

How is "drops in all monitored categories except for non-doorman studios" called "not falling?

Do you need to look up "falling" in the dictionary?

nyc10022, Hint: Sarcasm (or at least that's what I think).

petrfitz, speaking of which--where is Steve today? He isn't posting every 3 seconds, 24/7 like he usually is... Odd.

Rents were rising until mid-2008, so it makes sense that the YEARLY average wouldn't be that much lower. Look at a monthly/quarterly report.

http://www.citi-habitats.com/media/pdf/12-2008-mra.pdf
Vacancies are almost twice what they were in May 2008.

http://www.citi-habitats.com/media/pdf/rentals4quarter2008.pdf
Prices have fallen by 4-5% across the board in Q4. This doesn't include concessions like no broker fees and free months, which can easily be 20-25% of a year's rent. And the trend probably isn't going to reverse (rising inventories and the 180k jobs estimated to be lost in NYC in 2009).

Regardless of what the actual percentage drop is, rents are definitely dropping.

I think those figures reflect asking rents, not actual leases, and they don't reflect any concessions, offered or negotiated. Considering the limitations of the methodology, it seems remarkable that TREGNY could ever report a decrease of any kind - and the report itself says that the numbers are awful. But if you want to try to spin it as something else, have fun.

I signed my lease pretty close to the peak (May 08) too.. one good thing about renting is that if you get in at the peak you are only screwing yourself for a year.

> nyc10022, Hint: Sarcasm (or at least that's what I think).

Nope... OP has a pretty clear history of denial in the face of data. There was an entire thread on this.

That being said, absolutely on W81 and Evillager. If folks don't think rents are down in a major way in the last few months, they aren't looking....

NYC10022 - are you a landlord? out of my 20 units - 19 are rented. 1 just moved out in December and I am rennovating. all new leases were signed for a 5-10% increase YOY.

What is your data point? Oh yeah - you read a headline about 1 specific case and then apply your doom and gloom to every unit in manhattan

my data point is I have a friend who owns roughly 25 buildings downtown and has his highest vacancy rate of the last 20 years. Wall Street crumbling has had a hell of an effect. So I got $100 bucks that says your 2009 looks a lot different then '08.
Speaking of which, when did most of your apts rent? Early 08?

so yes, DOOM AND GLOOM FOR LANDLORDS
hahahahah
while us renters reap the benefits

petrfitz...are you a landlord in lower rent apartments. i'm sure those apts. will continue to rent well. The doorman bldgs have ripped people off with crazy high prices and that's where the prices will drop...$2500 for a studio, $3500 for a one bedroom is nuts.

you're 100% right. those prices are stupid and thank god are finally going to fall.

"What is your data point? Oh yeah - you read a headline about 1 specific case and then apply your doom and gloom to every unit in manhattan"

Points plural. Multiple data sources. Observer noted 8% down, crains noted down, and the market reports, like, oh, that one above.

If you want to complain that a putz is using anecdotes to represent the market... well, that putz is you.

upperwestrenter: is your friend cutting prices? in general, what is his strategy for reducing the vacancy rate?

someone go check his apt.. .maybe he's fallen and can't get up :) Stevie... just hold on....

"upperwestrenter
about 2 hours ago
my data point is I have a friend who owns roughly 25 buildings downtown and has his highest vacancy rate of the last 20 years."

even so what was his vacany rate 0.5% and what is it now 1.5%?

hmmm

Great logic.

If vacancy rate goes from absolutely crazily low to just fairly low... wouldn't that parallel rents going from absolutely crazily high to fairly high? 2002 was fairly high...

try closer to 8% last I heard (late November.)
I would venture a guess (just like you) that it could be 10% or higher now.

Why would actual valid numbers matter to perfitz?

"someone go check his apt.. .maybe he's fallen and can't get up :) Stevie... just hold on...."
LOL - now that is funny!

$14? When I got here in the spring, places I looked at rented for about $4,800. I stayed in a place my company got me until Nov, then rented the same sort of space i'd been looking at since the spring, for only $4,000!

Currently, similar units are renting at about $3,700.

Conclusion: Alpine is an idiot

"someone go check his apt.. .maybe he's fallen and can't get up :) Stevie... just hold on...."

LOL. If you hadn't noticed, we're on the verge of a depression because of plunging housing values. It's residential real estate that needs a life alert button!

PetrRitz:

"all new leases were signed for a 5-10% increase YOY."

Sure they were, bunky. Need deets to put in context (are these ratholes?). Was the rent previously fixed for 2 yrs, so you're "10% increase" is really a 10% decrease from what the market was in Feb '08? Sorry, no 'deets, and i'm not buyin' it.

The doorman in my friend's bldg. said the moving trucks keep coming moving people out and no one is moving in. He said he heard the landlord is trying everything to attract tenants.

julia, where is your friend's building?

yes everyone is leaving New York City to move back to New Brunswick to live in their parents basement. Everyone I mean everyone is leaving NYC. Why would anyone ever live here?

I didn't say people were leaving new york city...people are moving from high rents, finding more reasonable rents. Her bldg. is in kips bay.

petrfitz, in all seriousness, what kind of units are you renting out? Are these older walkups? How do you find your tenants?

I'm trying to help someone find a studio for $1300, ideally in northside Williamsburg, though I'm not sure how feasible this is yet. Anyone out there having success negotiating rents in this range?

people are leaving nyc, don't kid yourself. Anyone on a visa who got layed off is going back to their home country immediately (the Sydney consulate event last night can attest to it). I take a cab to work and don't hit traffic anymore, places I go to for lunch that were hard to get a table are now empty, "luxury apartments for rent" signs are discreetly in front of buildings now. IMO, rents will have to come down a lot further. Because if you're on Wall Street and you lose your job, you're not paying your 6k+ rent for long.

I don't know about Bklyn but in manhattan LLs are definitely negotiating with 1-3 months free rent although they're not pro-rating it they're adding the additional free months onto the lease. If you find something for $1600 you could try and get it reduced.

"Everyone I mean everyone is leaving NYC."

Actually, I seem to recall reading that about a million people have left Manhattan the past decade, but were replaced by immigrants. that's what has kept our population afloat as compared to others.

Admiral, quit pulling numbers out of your ass. Manhattan only has 1.6 million residents. I do not think 2/3 of them were swapped out over the past decade.

"Admiral, quit pulling numbers out of your ass. Manhattan only has 1.6 million residents. I do not think 2/3 of them were swapped out over the past decade."

As I said, "I seem to recall reading". I didn't state it as a fact. In retrospect it probably applied to NYC, not just the borough of Manhattan. But I remember the point they made: NYC, like Philly and a lot of northern cities, had huge outflows of population the past 10 (or 20?) years. However, NYC, unlike those other cities, had huge immigration, and that's why our NET population was slightly up.

Anyone think those immigrants, on average, can pay as high a rent as the folks who moved out? I don't.

bjw: You haven't figured this out by now? petrfitz is a pathological liar and doesn't rent out any units. He's almost certainly a broker.

tech_guy, I know his shtick and insults, but I guess part of me actually believes he's a landlord in some shape or form. Hey, if Bush was president for 8 years, I'm willing to believe petrfitz inherited some investment real estate.

tech-guy: makes sense.

Admiral:

This is really good stuff:

"Actually, I seem to recall reading that about a million people have left Manhattan the past decade, but were replaced by immigrants. that's what has kept our population afloat as compared to others."

people vs immigrants..or people don't equal immigrants...awesome

True, though I still don't trust anything Bush has to say on politics or the presidency. Even supposedly factual statements, I'd expect Bush to either be too stupid to know, or to lie blatantly, or both.

Regardless, in other threads, people who know real estate better than me (and apparently better than petrfitz) have pointed out some obvious and glaring inconsistencies with things he's said. So while he may own actual real estate (through inheritance or whatever), he's also known to lie about what real estate he does own. Conclusion is he definitely can't be trusted.

Everybody here is an immigrant. And we're all slime.

tech guy you are just jealous that you ae a back office code monkey. Maybe some day you will get to be consumer facing.

actually there was an article in the past 2 or 3 weeks that stated that New York city had one of the lowest rates of population departing. I will try to locate it

1 - You know nothing about my job or its status

2 - You're a known pathological liar about so many aspects of your life. You really shouldn't be questioning anyone else's status when you're clearly so incredibly embarrassed about your own reality.

1 - you are a back office java monkey. you have stated it over and over again. you work for some one else and work on products that someone else thought of and own.

2 - you are insanely jealous that i have been able to create content in multiple platforms and sell it. i can do circles around you in discussion on any digital content platform - mobile, broadband, streaming flash, etc etc. all you do is code forms, databases, and printer drivers.

3 - i am the guy who speaks at the industry conferences you would like to attend but your boss won't pay your fees or give you the time away from your machine cause you are a code monkey.

hee hee hee

The term code monkey generally refers to a computer programmer or other person who writes computer code for a living. More specifically, it refers to a person only capable of grinding out code, but unable to perform the more intellectually complex tasks of software architecture, analysis, and design. The term is thus considered mildly insulting, and is often applied to the most junior people on a programming team. "Code monkey" may also be used self-deprecatingly in griping about or denying responsibility for management decisions (e.g. "Don't ask me why we need to write a compiler in COBOL, I'm just a code monkey.").

While you claim things I've stated (that I never have), I'm going to instead provide links where your technological stupidity was shown:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/4938-crains-huge-job-cuts-on-wall-street-forecast

(best part: Search for "Your_Landlord" to see petrfitz's other alias agreeing with himself. Talk about having a sad life...)

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5868-everyone-can-make-money-in-this-market

(best part: Search for "J2ME" and see where petrfitz brags about using it while insulting Java, not knowing what the "J" in "J2ME" stands for...)

what is a back office java monkey? petrfitz i thought you would be thrilled that Presdient Obama is in office.

Oh jesus, would you two just shut up already...

so we've established that he's a code monkey, but are rents down?

Perfitz and tech_guy arguing reminds me of nyc10022 and stevejvx arguing.

They are on the same side when it comes to the bull vs bear SE wars and both pairs could be formidable forces in the quest for the oh so important bragging rights on these internationally followed pages - heck maybe they could even move markets - but they squander this golden opportunity at every turn.

It very nearly brings a tear to my eye.

"people vs immigrants..or people don't equal immigrants...awesome"

It's actually pretty clear what it means, b!tch, and it's been the subject of more than one story by people interested in demographic trends: Lots of affluent people have moved OUT of NYC the past few decades, and the number of affluent people moving in hasn't been sufficient to replace them. But the population is slightly up, in total, because of the influx of NON-AFFLUENT immigrants.

BTW, my hunch is that I should count you among the non-affluent crowd. No offense...

Hey petrfitz - now that gasoline prices have returned to reasonable levels, have you traded in your chauffeur-driven Prius for a chauffeur-driven Ford station wagon?

"Oh jesus, would you two just shut up already..."

hehe

"They are on the same side when it comes to the bull vs bear SE wars"

Nope.

"heck maybe they could even move markets"

And here I thought nyc10022 was the only one stupid enough to think this is possible...

tech_guy - sorry I didnt intend to be mean. Now will you please upgraded my blackberry software?

Please don't apologize. Continue. I enjoy exposing you as a fraud. (AKA: bumping the thread so more people can see)

love the exchanges betw techguy and peter

Remember this post?

a little funny now...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/realestate/01cov.html?_r=2&em

What's with you and the homophobia? Still haven't come out of the closet yet?

(post I was referring to was deleted, so ignore the last comment)

its official.... alpine in denial..

http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/with-incentives-rents-are-down-10-to-15-3

"Fritz Frigan, executive director of sales and leasing at Halstead Property, said that when the incentives are factored in, rents are actually down 10 percent to 15 percent since the market peak in mid-2007. "

even the brokers are saying it...

I was able to get a 10% reduction to renew in a "luxury" rental.

this is good stuff...
my lease is up in May, and over the past two renewals he's jacked it up a near net 20% on me. Going to use all the links in this thread to get him down, or lookfor a better rent elsewhere....
currently in a spacious 2 br w riverview right off Columbia campus,but paying too much i think (4 years ago it was 3.6k, now 4.3k)
thx all

I have been looking to buy or rent in sutton/beekman and the east 60s.....I have seen some very good deals on 2BRs in excellent rental bldgs, where asking rents are somewhat below other comparable units in the bldg. Plus, some landlords are offering free month's rent. The deals on sublets seem to be even better--especially condo and coop owners who are having trouble selling their apts. I have a close friend in a popular rental bldg in Murray Hill; he siad that the bldg is about 11% vacant--and typically the bldg is always fully rented. Even popular bldgs ike the Fairfax has several empty units.

"my lease is up in May, and over the past two renewals he's jacked it up a near net 20% on me. Going to use all the links in this thread to get him down, or lookfor a better rent elsewhere.... "

absolutely, revenge is a bitch!

break it to perfitz easy, though.... don't want him going crazy again.

Just signed a lease on a very large 3BR in a lux condo building, that was initially listed at a crazy 20K (spring 2008), came down to ~10, and we offered 20% under. Very similar situation for our 2nd choice, an UWS townhouse triplex (started at 14K in Feb 2008, came down to 9 and we offered 7.5 and got it). We found that there are good deals to be had for coops (if you're in for the board hassle) and condo's that have been on the market for a while and the owner gets anxious to not lose more income, while it's much harder to get these discounts in rental buildings. We've tried several times but they never come down more than a few hundreds, and rather leave the units unoccupied (to not set a precedent? assuming the market will be right back where it was before?) than rent them at a lower price. The one/two/three months free is a nice perk, but in the long term you're still paying the high monthly rent out of pocket.

Good point. Building owners worry about "setting the market price" too low.

Individual unit owners could care less about the market price, they want their cash....

Building owners don't "set the market price." The market sets the market price.

Last year at this time, I paid $4500 for a JR4 in a fairly high end building, they offered two give me a two year renewal with NO increase, when I asked for a deduction, they offered a 3% decrease. They are publicly offering a unit in the same line for 5% less before concessions. Today, I am signing on a 2Br/2bth in a doorman building 2 blocks away for 12.5% less plus one free month. When me and my neighbor leave over the next 2 months, that will leave 4 empty apts. of 6 on my half of the floor.

Rents are dropping and high end companies are soon going to have to come to the realization that as high end compensations on the average drop in the near term, they are going to have to drop their asking rents in accordance with the market.

As an aside, many people fail to realize that the quality of life currently available in NYC (theater, salaries for non-finance workers) is largely attributable to the financial industry and that such a steep contraction will no doubt effect many, if not all other walks of life. What we were doing as a society was not and is not sustainable, but it is important to find stability as we move forward in order to reach equilibrium.

"high end companies"

which one? big mistake on their part it seems to me.

tripel and spike, it seems to me that at this point a topic about which companies are reducing rents, and which should be avoided cause they are still stuck in denial would benefit every renter. the more transparent the reductions become (including concessions), the more they will come down. it's a renters mkt but good info is too scarce.

? Building owners don't "set the market price." The market sets the market price.

In this case, the market is the building itself. Call it a sub-market, call it whatever you want.

But when you reduce rents for one apartment in a building, that has a larger effect than a rent change elsewhere if the info comes out.

You can use whatever terminology you want, but landlords are less likely to lower rent for an apartment than an individual owner, given the repercussion on their other apartments.

admin, there is a thread similar to that about a week ago. I mentioned that Brodsky had raised asking rents on some of its empty apts. (concessions the same) and that they had pulled a bait-and-switch in their NYT Sunday advertising with rents advertised being NER but not advertised as such. MetroNY on 53rd street still has high rents but is offering three free months and moving expenses so the NER on a 15-month lease approximates market costs, but what will you do next spring when your rent cost actually increases 33%? Rose, while not necessarily the high end seems to be offering relatively reasonable prices for moderately appointed apts. Looked in the Ellington and saw two decent, but not great, units that did not fit my needs.

I still feel that rents will fall another 5-10%, but not much more, so if you can afford to wait, do so.

"tripel and spike, it seems to me that at this point a topic about which companies are reducing rents, and which should be avoided cause they are still stuck in denial would benefit every renter. the more transparent the reductions become (including concessions), the more they will come down. it's a renters mkt but good info is too scarce. "

Yes, pls, if you're out there and have info, cough it up. I promise to do the same in return when I start to look (this summer).

Rents will fall more than 5-10% in the coming year. NYC will experience a multi-year contraction leading to rents 20% lower than current but it will take a couple of years for the pricing to adjust. Rents are already dropping like a rock and there are still at least a couple hundred thousand layoffs to go.

Wait, rents are falling?

look at the article on curbed today - rents for 1 bedroom non doorman in the LES are near all time highs. One bedroom doorman lux apts are down against historic highs in the neighborhood but that seems to be leveling at a realistic and sustainable level.

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/02/12/rental_woes_tribeca_les_and_harlem_take_their_licks.php

there are markets that are realitively stable - the ones that did not go throug hthe unrealistic increases like the non doorman 1 bedrooms.

Yes, all that good news about the lower east side:

Prices didn't go up very much, and then they still fell... "But when the market cooled in the summer, the prices dropped even faster than they rose."

and...

"Doorman one and two-bedroom units now sit only above Harlem as the second least expensive units in Manhattan"

Wow, already the cheapest south of 96th street! So already the lousiest investement in town.

Well done!

nope it is one of the most stable investments in manhattan. the chart shows that 1 bedroom non doorman rentals in the LES are actually up 3.5% since last January. i agree well done in the face of global meltdown.

petrfitz, that is some impressive spin. If you noticed, doorman rents in the LES have plummeted, almost to the level of non-doorman rents. Which does not bode well for those units. In fact, there's already evidence of this:
http://blogs.wsj.com/wallet/2009/02/09/how-to-reduce-your-rent/
Even the curbed link you posted says this: "The Lower East Side is the quintessential example of what happens to a late-comer in a hot market."

> nope it is one of the most stable investments in manhattan.

Yes, STABILITY is what you look for in a leveraged investment with a low yield!

Ha, I love it!

hmm low yield? i have someone else give me 50% of their take home each month - an amount up 3.5% in this economy on properties that were paid off 2 years ago. minus about 15% for maintenance and taxes it is all net profit.

What investments do you have NYC10022 - that are up 3.5 since January, have no cost and return 85% in cash in each month?

3.5% yield. Wow!

I have savings bonds from my Bar Mitzvah that do better than that!

And, difference is, you don't have a MAJOR erosion of capital each month! Way to lose!

petrfitz, from the WSJ article above:

"Within hours, the top dog manager called me up and offered to renew our lease at $2,350 a month. “It’s a special deal. The building is hot right now,” he told me.

“If it’s so hot,” I politely countered, “why was the apartment across the hall vacant for several months?”

He paused. “I’ll send you the renewal form shortly.”"

Lowered their rent by $300 in a non-doorman rental on the LES!

Buy now or be priced out forever!

nyc10022 - you obviously dont understand the term yield. you cant stand it when there is absolute data that proves some us are not only making money this year but we are moaking more money this year than all other years.

pertridish... you were up 200%... now up 85%... good for you :)

Umm... rents are not falling?

Holy ostrich batman... some people really have their heads stuck in the ground don't they?

"nyc10022 - you obviously dont understand the term yield. you cant stand it when there is absolute data that proves some us are not only making money this year but we are moaking more money this year than all other years."

Nope, you don't. Using "yield" as a measure of an investment where the principal declines is absolutely moronic...

> Holy ostrich batman... some people really have their heads stuck in the ground don't they?

No, never, no way...

nyc10022 and w67th street - how are your sotcks doing this year? hee hee

thanks for sending me 50% of your take home each month as your rent.

I got it, your are proven completely wrong and your investment "ideas" are completely smoked, and all you have left is insults.

Way to go, loser!

guys, petrfitz is another lost case ala tech_guy albeit he is of the conceited/narcisssitic variant... don't worry, they will eventually go the way of their forefathers like spunky and simply disappear from the board after time....

and when that happens, along with SteveF and other monkeys who are infatuated with picking bottoms, then we can begin to accept that the bottom is indeed approaching.

clearly, we are still not there yet.

MMAfia, I see your point, but why would you wait for these people to confirm something before knowing it's true? When have they been known to acknowledge much of this market correctly?

He's not saying acknowledge, he's saying they LEAVE.

Go the way of spunky and the other geniuses...

MMAfia predicts that the USD will fail and a gold standard will take over. I predict real estate won't go down very far, and won't stay down long. When it comes to "acknowledge[ing] much of this market correctly", I'm very happy with where I sit, all things considered. His views are an order of magnitude more loony than mine.

As for leaving these boards... I was happy when it was worthwhile debate. Now its nothing but insults, Chicago, and Obama bashing. No thank you. I don't know why you (MMAfia) consider "ownership" of these boards to be such a noble prize, but you can have it.

You guys DO realize, right, that the various brokerage reports on rents are based on ASKING rents, not actual, effective rents? In other words, they do not factor in concessions, free months, or even plain-old bargaining. As the NYT recently reported, factoring all of this in, rents have fallen about 20-25% from their peak in 2007 in MANHATTAN. Specifically they singled out this one part of the city. Plus, anyone perusing Streeteasy can see 10 times as many rent price decreases as increases. Why is anyone even arguing at this point? See: "A Month Free? Rents Are Falling Fast" at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/realestate/01cov.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=free%20month&st=cse

You guys Do realize that some of us are landlords and know where our rents are compared to last year and how many units we have vacant?

Yes, but we also realize that some folks are in complete denial....
Not to mention, your real estate acumen has been proven pretty shoddy.

So, sorry if we take ACTUAL DATA over the guy on the message board who called the market completely wrong and now has a vested interest in no one noticing...

> I'm very happy with where I sit

Hundreds of posts to the contrary, of course...

nyc10022, are you implying that the more someone posts, the less confident they are in their own ideas? You do realize you post 10x more than me, don't you? Apparently if I stop posting, its because I know I'm wrong, and if I do post, its because I know I'm wrong.

> nyc10022, are you implying that the more someone posts, the less confident they are in their own
> ideas?

Nope, its the content of your posts. Denial and lashing out is not the sign of someone comfortable with the position they are in.

> You do realize you post 10x more than me, don't you?

And, yes, you posting less is a good thing. Much appreciated.