Why would ANYONE buy now?

site example please

they buy cause they don't think that "Prices will be down 70-75% by the time all is said and done here in NYC"

just a quick search this was the first that came up - price down 22% in one month and who ever saw something priced at $1400 in Chelsea a year ago? Plus I tend to think anything that actually gets listed on streeteasy rentals is overpriced, a quick search of Craigslist shows how low rents are these days compared to 6 months ago where you could barely get a studio for 3k - prices should follow suit.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/455738-345-w-30th-st-chelsea-new-york the link

im looking for a rental right now and can tell you that streeteasy is not the place to find a good deal

The question should be, why would anyone SELL now unless it was because of the obvious reasons of relocation, death, or divorce.

bronxboy,
thats easy. you would sell now to capture whatever gains you can, assuming you agree that prices are going to continue to decline and may not recover to current levels for a very long time.

they should sell to get out before prices hit bottom....we are looking at a good 60% or more decline from CURRENT prices. Get out while you can.....I have said this for 2 years and only the smart people listened to me.

"6 months ago where you could barely get a studio for 3k - prices should follow suit."

3k for a studio was only for very high end stuff or larger loft-like studios. Certainly not the norm. Let's not exaggerate to make our points here.

anon3, people buy under many different circumstances. Some also just traded up, even in a heightened market, and who are you to fault them for doing so? A blanket statement and saying "only the smart people listened to me" isn't going to get you very far on this board.

even if 3k was higher end, it was not out of the norm - you NEVER saw anything in prime Manhattan for close to 1k/month....and rents are sinking FAST - even at the outrageous rents being asked prices were still about 100% overpriced compared to the market - now market needs to catch up to not only the old insane rents, but the new more reasonable (yet by most standards still insane) rents....and they are falling FAST

Down 75%? By taking such an extreme position, you are ensuring that nobody takes you seriously. Some people are buying because they want to, they have the money to do so, they probably think there is not much more downside, and know they can live in an apartment for several years to come. Trust me, your wild claim has no effect on a rational person.

You do not have a crystal ball, so stop acting as if you know more than the next person.

anon3, you are an extremist for sure.
The example you provided for rent on west 30th street (is that really chelsea?) is a first floor, under 200 square foot apartment. That's tiny by anyone's standards. That's hardly indicative of the trends in rents.

You are entitled to think Manhattan prices will be down 75% from peak. That is just an opinion. Probably not accurate at all, but you can think what you want.

thank you starfish! (and kingdeka)

"Luxury Rentals Take a Big Hit
Some tenants find they can get homes for far less than the cost to own them..."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123448313158279827.html

All together now: But Manhattan luxury real estate will never be subject to the same market forces as Los Angeles and San Francisco.

reason i would buy is if i could get a condo that i really liked in a good location for $600/sq foot. to get that type of price, you have to buy distressed. they are few and far between for good apts, but they will be increasingly available as inventory builds.

LMAO..... is that why my LL is being so nice to me.... he thinks I'll want to buy it from him..."no Mr.Bond... I expect you to die." That's to my LL....

Oh God.. I gotta wipe that laughter tear...

that's right. from unreasonable assumptions you don't necessarily land on useful conclusions. anon3 you remind me of all my finance professors: "every human is rational, they never die and markets are efficient..." then every time their crappy model with those assumptions doesn't fit reality they call it a "puzzle". what a joke!

Actually, rents were 100% overpriced compared to rentals by almost any standard - rents have come down already 30-40% from peak meaning prices have to go down even more than they had to before. Bankers salaries are down, lawyers salaries are frozen (down), inventory is soaring and people are leaving the city by the truckload hourly. I don't think 75% from peak is crazy - $300-500/sq foot for a one bedroom downtown is reasonable to optimistic considering rents, taxes/maint. and job losses - prices may go even lower honestly unless Obama inflates his way out of this mess quickly enough.....in the 70s people were giving apartments away - things are not looking so pretty in NYC.

"in the 70s people were giving apartments away - things are not looking so pretty in NYC." cannot agree more! we don't know how the movie will end yet. it's just starting.

Prices will be down 70-75%?

OMG another moron has entered the picture.

anon3 is back with his usual malarkey. The only thing that went down 75% is anon3's portfolio, he would have been much better off buying real estate.

anon3, can you give examples of how rents are down 40%?
I don't take anyone seriously when they make blanket statements without backing it up with fact. And your previous example on 30th street wasn't even close to being taken as proof positive.

I would say NYC is is no worse condition than anywhere else in the U.S., or the world for that matter. Things are rough everywhere. Things have been bad for almost 4 years now in Florida, California, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and other states where the housing bubble burst 4 years ago.

It's not like people are fleeing to a place that has plenty of jobs to go around. Even the Dubai magnet turned out to be an illusion.

kingdeka, rental data is admittedly tough to come by on Streeteasy as I think only higher priced rentals make it on, but take a look at the one example I posted above (this was just from my first search, but am sure you can find many similar examples), better yet do a quick search on craigslist and you will see MANY MANY 1bd and even 2bd apartments in prime Manhattan for 1600-1800/month - I can tell you that when I was searching for an apartment 2 years ago I could not find ANYTHING (one bd) decent for less than about $2800-2900/month. My friend just got an apartment at 72/Columbus for 1700 reduced from 2800. On top of this most landlords are now paying brokers fees and giving months of rent away free making prices even better.....

and you may be right that we are not in a worse position than the rest of the nation, but they are in pretty bad shape - I wouldn't buy anywhere right now (worldwide bubble), but just because housing is going down everywhere is not a good reason to buy in a place where the housing downturn has just begun - if anything it is a warning NOT to buy and to get out if you can!! This market has a LONG way to fall....

In the end, talking about why people are buying isn't superrelevant when the stats show sales fell off a cliff. Obviously there are exceptions, but, at least in the last few months, the majority of the city decided it wasn't a good time to buy...

anon3, there are plenty of other sources to come up with data other than streeteasy. From people I know that have had the rents renewed within the past 2 months, rents seem to be down on average 15%. Not 40%. I haven't heard anyone getting a 40% reduction in rent, yet. Maybe if the economy worsens or does not improve, that number looks good this time next year, but I would say 40% rent reduction already is an exaggeration.

As I said the example you provided with the link is not relevant. It is on 30th and 9th, is a first floor tiny studio at only 200 sq ft.

That's my opinion, and probably what the market is doing now. Your opinion seems to be extreme.

You can visit any major apartment building that handles its own leases and find out what they are charging for rents. Rents are down about 15% across the board to date.

anon3, you are reflective of the new SE discussion board mentality...you have moved beyond bear and into paranoia mentality. Hunker down, have your shotgun with a buckshot ready, canned food, bomb shelter, and gallons of water to ride out this new era.

I think things have completely fallen off here. There must be a link with google to keywords like Michigan Militia, posse comitatus and other extremists.

Now I think I understand why former intelligent regulars (although a little bear heavy) like stevejhx have almost abandoned streeteasy.

Things have gotten a little extreme in mentality around here.

The apartment you posted is on what is probably on of the worst blocks in Manhattan. You couldn't pay me to live there. I worked 1 block away for 2 years. There is NOTHING there. And it is most certainly not a "Chelsea" apartment.

Just checked the listing - it looks like there is no shower and no kitchen. Seriously, you're pointing to this as a sign that the rental market is weak?? It's a room in an apartment. Not worth more than $500 a month. Doesn't mean anything.

Hey buy if you want, market will be down 70-75% - this is still expensive territory even with those types of price declines by income standards in NYC and rental prices. If you can provide stats as to why it should not fall based on rents and income in NYC I would love to see them, but calling me a "moron" and "paranoid" is basically what irrational people resort to when they are desperately clinging to an irrational assumption unsupported by basic data. Just wondering why anyone would buy a 1bd now when they will be able to get a 3bd for the same price in a couple years and lose all that equity? Mind boggling....

so if i understand this correctly..if the average price per square foot is a $1000/ in manhattan today, you are saying in a year it will be $ 250-300, so by that rational NJ will be $50-100 a square foot or will we all be priced that same ?and im sure some parts of queens and brooklyn will be what
$10 a square foot ?what in you mind will be the price of the surronding areas ?

kingdeka, he was here before and he'll probably be here again. There's always a fringe on either side. anon3, are you talking prime 3BRs under $500k? Don't think so.

Well I doubt you will see 500k on prime 5th ave, but yes, I think considering taxes, maint, job losses, average income, increased inventory levels and people fleeing the city left and right 500k is probably about right by the time this is all said and done for a 3bd in a GOOD Manhattan neighborhood - say Murray Hill, the west village, soho etc downtown and prime park areas probably 600-800k, far east side will probably go for less, maybe 400k - same for financial district. That may be slightly low, but very ballpark.

sfo - depends on which neighborrhod/building - I would not expect prices to go below 200-250/sq. foot, but 250-450/sq foot seems about right depending on what happens with inflation for GOOD neighborhoods (see above) - pricing on buildings is pretty divergent - see the Brompton discussion in which apartments were selling for 1500-1800/sq ft - that has further to fall than an older building with lower taxes that was selling for 1000/sq foot.

Don't feed the troll

JuiceMan- since you can't support your brokerbabble/flipper mentality with any hard data you resort to calling others names - isn't it getting old? Haven't you faced the fact that RE is going down HARD??? If not it is your money to lose.

BTW - here is another I found on a quick search on craigslist - prime Chelsea, new kitchen/bath $1150. There are MANY of these to be found these days. Link: http://newyork.craigslist.org/mnh/fee/1032564820.html

To all who expect good manhattan properties to fall 40%, 50%, ..and even as someone above even "predicted" 75% - thats a lot of wishful thinking... Good luck though, I understand one has to rationalize their choices to stay on the line waiting ... possibly forever ;-)

"since you can't support your brokerbabble/flipper mentality with any hard data you resort to calling others names"

I'm not the one predicting a 70% decrease in prices and "supporting it with hard data" by posting links to a 200 sqft studio on 30th and 9th. We've been through this before anon3 and it always ends the same, you looking like a complete moron.

You said prices would never go down for years JuiceMan - I do not resort to name calling, but I think we all see who looks like the moron now that history is on my side. You said this current situation could never happen, calling name after name, and look at it now...you are clearly a broker/speculator and everyone on this board knows it. To the rest of you - get out while you can prices are falling on both rents and prices FAST and HARD. I stand by my prediction - down 70-75% from peak prices by the time this is all over. Good luck to us all.

Just for the record, I call you a moron because trying to debate you with your moronic post is a complete waste of time.

Anyone thinking about selling - I urge you to get out as fast as you can - cut your prices, listen to the rational voices here on streeteasy and from the financial analysts. Brokers/speculators got you into this mess, make sure you get out as soon as you can - this is FAR FAR FAR from over.

"you are clearly a broker/speculator and everyone on this board knows it"

Totally wrong. JuiceMan is just a regular homeowner with a good sense of humor. It's really tough to believe you when you post stuff like this:

"people are leaving the city by the truckload hourly"

It's called the Fung-Wah Bus my friend.

Fung-Wah Bus may be all they can afford now my friend, certainly not a $1MM apartment along with rising NYC taxes....And Juiceman appears only to have a sense of humor with people who agree with him and his perma-bull, anti-intellectual analysis or he resorts to juvenile name calling. Get out while you can readers or it will be your loss - however I have been saying this for 2 years now....it is your money to lose.

anon3 said: "get out while you can prices are falling on both rents and prices FAST and HARD"

A logical deduction is that if you are practicing what you preach, then you should be homeless person now, living on the streets - i.e. you dont own (as prices are falling and you are "out"), nor you rent (as rents are falling and you are "out")

So are you "out" in the cold?

"anti-intellectual analysis"

Now that's funny. You calling anyone anti-intellectual is hysterical (not to mention hypocritical). I will humor you however, because there are a lot of new SE users that don’t know how much of an intellectual you really are. How do you suppose the market will fall 70%? Since you like hard analysis, why don't you show us what you have to back this theory up? I'm particularly interested in your theory on how co-op's will drop to sub 1999 levels in the next year. Feel free to use this chart as a starting point. Be specific please.

http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168394442sGxaK&Record=0

anon3 throws out ridiculous predictions with no rationale, analysis or data to support them, then criticizes others for not having hard data. A 3-bedroom in a quality building in a good Manhattan neighborhood for $500k? Ridiculous.

"It's called the Fung-Wah Bus my friend."

LMAO.

cheep cheep. cheep cheep. What's that I hear? Crickets? cheep cheep.

Hey, if you guys are going to be childish, at least be funnier.

COme up with some new funny insults or something!

AH, to wish upon a star.
Star light, urban blight
Wont you provide a condo tonight
Wish I will, Wish I might
$300sq/ft is in my sight
If you would, if you could
Forclosure sale would be good

Dream on and sleep well my little wishful thinkers...

Okay, anon 3, I'll bite: "Just wondering why anyone would buy a 1bd now when they will be able to get a 3bd for the same price in a couple years and lose all that equity? Mind boggling...."

That's the thing - it's not a science. It's an emotional process. People buy for a lot of reasons, and the scenario you describe above (farfetched or not) is insufficient to sway them. I'll cite a few, then y'all can begin accusing me of broker babble:

-Can't barbeque on roof of rental.
-Landlord won't accept 85 lb dog.
-Mom will loan me down payment money now, because she feels guilty about buying my brother a car. By next year she won't care anymore.
-Currently qualify for an FHA loan with 3% down.
-Must plant garden and begin locovore living. Must own home so no co-op to complain about compost smell.
-Last remaining person with secure job, suddenly feeling quite flush, can finally afford to buy in X building I've been coveting for years and can't wait to savor victory.
-Bank error in your favor, collect $200.

I don't really mean to be glib, I'm just saying this is not a cold, unemotional decision. All sorts of random things affect a buyer's sensibility, and pure reason is not as big a factor as you might think.

tina, if one's own emotions are so out of control that they cannot make a basic housing decision without losing their entire down payment in a year or so their money is much better spent on psychotherapy. The problems mentioned above are pretty easily solved without buying a highly overpriced apartment.

Neurobiologists are grappling with the question of why we do things that are unreasonable. I can't speak to all that, but together we could probably come up with a syllabus.

Still, not everyone takes as fact your assertion that the market will come down another 70-75%. There are deals out there that make sense to buyers who don't see them as "highly overpriced" - especially in cases where the prices have dropped to 2004 levels. Will they fall further? Maybe. Some will, sure. But if they only fall a bit more - say, another 10% - and the cost of obtaining a loan increases, or your parents rescind their offer to help with the down payment, or you have to pay moving expenses to get into a rental with a more lenient pet policy, or you have to establish a foothold in a certain school district so you pay a broker a fee to rent there - that additional potential savings could be wiped out by a combination of these other factors.

Focusing on anon's numerical projections is glossing over his larger point. real estate prices might fall another 15%, or they may fall another 40%. who knows? But we are clearly in a down cycle, after which we'll probably flat line for at least a few years. So for those on the sidelines, i agree with anon's point that there's no reason to rush when prices aren't going up anytime soon.

I don't disagree with the general conceit, I'm just saying people have their reasons. Even if they don't seem reasonable.

I know someone who just bought because he felt that he found something he liked at a price he could afford. He never reads any sites like streeteasy, urbandigs or curbed. He believes that Manhattan real estate can only go up in the long term. He will not even be aware if he "loses" 20% of his apartment value. I don't agree with him but I think there are many people out there who have no clue about what's happening or who think that prices will not go any lower.

perception is reality

Why would I buy now?

1. I don't believe we will see a 70-75%--or even a 50% decline. Period.
2. Due to the slow market traffic, there are many good properties on the market, which would have been unavailable a year ago.
3. Due to the slow market traffic, the realtors treat you very well. Just a year ago, they didn't even return your calls.
4. Due to the slow market traffic, the sellers and more flexible about their pricing and other terms.
5. Maybe I am in a financial situation where I don't need to be concerned about over-paying by 20%. Not everyone is just into saving money when it comes to real estate transactions.

nyc212-" Maybe I am in a financial situation where I don't need to be concerned about over-paying by 20%. Not everyone is just into saving money when it comes to real estate transactions."

it must be nice to e able to show indifference about overpaying 20% for multi-million dollar properties. but that makes you an atypical buyer, and really an outlier as far as this discussion. i think it's safe to say an overwhelming majority of people do care about the price they pay.

>Maybe I am in a financial situation where I don't need to be concerned about over-paying by 20%. Not everyone is just into saving money when it comes to real estate transactions.<

Cogratulations. Perhaps due to my weak spot for our four legged friends, I would much rather save the 20% and donate the funds to the local animal rescue programs/shelters & not bailing out some seller.

As to your points 2, 3 & 4, I don't expect any of those variables to change and continue to improve for the buyer for quite sometime. The RE market has only been in the soup for approximately 6 months and that's nothing compared to the 12 year parabolic, speculative, investors frenzy, cheap easy credit, bloated payrolls party.

" Why would ANYONE buy now? "

- Because people panic and not a lot of competition translate into excelent time to shop.

elena
(broker)

i too have great doubts about the value of manhattan real estate but....

lets say all of the above comes true...what will the larger world look like? clearly, the suburbs will collapse by as much if not more. what will cars cost?

doesn't seem possible that manhattan real estate can collapse by 50-75% in a complete vacuum. isn't it possible that the current downturn of 20-30% (much of which is not yet baked into asking prices) will be a likely floor for a long time to come?

columbia, yes, look at what is happening in the suburbs: according to the NYT "The Otteau Valuation Group%u2019s January report said there was a 46-month supply of homes priced from $1 million to $2.5 million on the market in New Jersey. (For homes priced at $2.5 million and above, the figure is 59.1 months, or three weeks shy of five years.)"

Obviously Manhattan prices will come down just as the suburbs come down. How many multi million dollar housing units can one market support??? 75% down is probably conservative....

See the NYT Article: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/realestate/15njzo.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=short%20hills&st=cse

tina, just look at the above article - prices in the entire NYC metro area are sinking and sinking FAST - prices will go down MUCH more than 10% in even superprime Manhattan.....these people need to get a grip on reality! Though your idea on a joint psychology study is a good one! I could use a career change!

but you haven't answered my question. "what will the larger world look like." if property overall falls by 75%, that would put everyone underwater. then what?

the beauty of the internet is to post all you need is the ability to strike keys. the real question is not why would anyone buy or why would anyone sell, but why would anyone listen to anyone on these posts?????!!!!!

columbia, I think things would look a lot better if property values fall 75% - people could actually afford to buy apartments, rents for commercial RE would come down, we would see more lower priced restaurants, new businesses, interesting people etc. Also, only the people who bought since about 2000 would be underwater - not most people, most people would still have made a fortune on NYC RE, even if prices fall 75% - which partially explains why Manhattan RE must fall by 75%.....

anon3 - people who bought since 2000 includes the vast majority of buyers who are currently under the age of 40, and have young families. If you think it would be good for NYC for these people to lose everything they worked for, then you are an ass. Well, that's obvious anyway. Prices will not drop 75%, in worst case scenario (barring an apocalyptic event) they will drop 40%, at which time many renters would enter the market and stabilize prices.

pjc, I don't want anyone to lose everything they worked for, this is why I advocate people not to buy until prices go down about 75% - it does suck for people under 40 who made a BAD CHOICE to buy, I am in this category, but saw how insane prices were and chose not to buy - many many friends did buy and I feel so bad for them, but I think it will allow for new people under 40, maybe who can make better financial decisions to move in - people who are not spending every cent they make working 70 hours/week on housing....this allows for new businesses, including reasonably priced restaurants (read, dinner costs less than $30/person), bars, boutiques, hairdressers and all kinds of other things. I am sorry some people were so naive as to buy into th bubble, but MOST owners in Manhattan will still come out ahead, just those that bought over the last 8 years or so will feel the downturn, but buying was still a choice, not all of us made it.

Prices do not need to drop to 75% for them to make sense, and to permit new buyers to enter the market. I think a 30% drop would take care of that. Rather, a 75% drop would be catastrophic, resulting in bankruptcy, population exodus, failing business, and individual misery and heartbreak on a mass scale. A hyper-deflationary situation is not good for anyone.

Of course, I understand your wishful thinking that a home that sold for $500,000 in 2007 will soon be around $130,000 (at which point you might gladly buy it), but it's just not realistic. Someone else will buy it when it hits $350,000 -- and you will still be out of luck. Sorry.

Most prime Manhattan is asking 1000-1500/sq foot - a 75% drop would taking things down to about 300/sq foot. This seems pretty reasonable considering the taxes/maint we are asked to pay in this city on top of the other factors I have mentioned above (job cuts/taxes/huge and increasing maint/risk of maint default by other owners/etc.)....

keep in mind people were GIVING AWAY apartments in the 1970s.....

Regarding taxes - implementing commuter tax was a good idea, sadly not accepted :-(

There definitely needs to be an adjustment from the bubble days. It depends on how much of an adjustment. 40%? 50%? More??

I think anons arguments are directionally correct. I see 50-60% declines from peak prices by the end of spring 2010. That would take us back to about 2001-2002 levels.

75% is too much. I think a 20% off the peak is resonable. it will be a temp decline. 12 - 24 mos. The uptrend will resume albeit at a much slower rate of 5- 6%

tdadlani - by almost all accounts we are already off 25%....see urbandigs.com

upturn at 5-6%??!! LOL what are you on? Sorry, but that is absurd! 75% down and then flat is most likely.

Have you seen how fast things are falling in the burbs too? There is currently a 5 YEAR supply of houses over 2.5MM and almost a 5 YEAR supply of houses from 1MM -2.5MM in NJ. This does not count Westchester, Connecticut or Long Island! NYC is doomed. Get out while you can (now IF you can!)

Richard Lefrack say," 25% decline from todays price". Who amongst you has a better genetic predisposition for making the call. My money is on Lefrak.

"Down 75%? By taking such an extreme position, you are ensuring that nobody takes you seriously. "

"Prices will be down 70-75%? OMG another moron has entered the picture."

Perhaps one of you geniuses can answer a simple question for me: In the 1990's, Tokyo real estate plunged 75%. Given that their bubble was not as severe as ours, and their financial sector not as devastated as ours, why is it not possible that Manhattan real estate will decline 75%?

not a lot of competition translate into excelent time to shop.

elena
(broker)

- I can't figure out why brokers get a bad rap for being stupid...

>Richard Lefrack say," 25% decline from todays price". Who amongst you has a better genetic predisposition for making the call. My money is on Lefrak.<

Let's hope he doesn't change his assumptions in a year. However, whenever I hear that he's beginning to invest, I will give the purchase option serious consideration. Prime Manhattan REITs will be first since those are easy enough to unload cash into, are highly liquid and have already been obliterated. Besides, Lefrak will most likely invest in commercial RE and not residential unless it's entire buildings he's picking up for a song.

Thanks Dwayne - JuiceMan has really no credibility, but you are right that logic dictates we are in a worse position than Tokyo in the 90's - you know people were giving away their apartments in the 70s?

feed the troll feed the troll feed the troll

serge
Did you buy GE wen Buffett did?
Or Goldman Sachs?
How about all the hedge funds that injected capital into National City Bank?
How about buying Motorola or Temple Inland or Yahoo when Icahn did?
How about when Tishman Speyer and Blackrock bought Stuyvesant Town?
How about when the genius investor Sam Zell bought Tribune?

DO YOUR OWN WORK PAL!

>Did you buy GE wen Buffett did?
Or Goldman Sachs?
How about all the hedge funds that injected capital into National City Bank?
How about buying Motorola or Temple Inland or Yahoo when Icahn did?
How about when Tishman Speyer and Blackrock bought Stuyvesant Town?
How about when the genius investor Sam Zell bought Tribune?<

I don't believe so. I use technical analysis almost exclusively in this market and none of those dogs would have ever been considered, some perhaps as short sales. Since you seem to be so interested in my market involvement, I've been short anything RE (mainly NY & CA related REITs), anything finance (except GS, MS, MA & V), consumer discretionary, long health care, AU and a large chunk in Treasury Notes and Bills. Recently, I've been adding refiners & China to the portfolio & considering Ag. So far, so good as it was last year.

>DO YOUR OWN WORK PAL!<

Sorry, I don't know you but I very much appreciate the advise. I'll keep this in mind from hence forth & do appreciate your concerns.

Serge
So you have been short stocks except for the few things that have held up like gold and health care and treasuries.
Your claims sound like the statements Madoff sent out.

bfg: nice work on the list, but don't include Zell. He out traded the whole world when he sold EOP in the spring of 2007. $36bil I think. Greatest trade in this cycle. His purchase of Tribune was irrelevant, just something to do, his cash infusion was de minimus. The esop and debt were the big investors. This failed deal only bruised his ego, not his wedge. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tribune news was just a head fake on why he needed to sell, so he wouldn't have to yell out loud that "I think RE is going to collapse".

patien
I agree Zell and Paulson had the two greatest trades of the generation, previous all-time trade was Soros' bet against the pound.
But buying Trib WAS a fuck up. Saying he did it to obfuscate his real reasons for selling EOP is being too cute by half.

>Serge
So you have been short stocks except for the few things that have held up like gold and health care and treasuries.
Your claims sound like the statements Madoff sent out. <

Perhaps I'm a relative...you never know.

Not so difficult if one understand technical analysis and uses stop losses. Sure, I've taken losses like anyone else in the past year or so but nothing that has been allowed to pile into a significant problem. When the DJI closed below 12K last year, I liquidated all equity positions and concentrated on shorting the market. Any technician worth his or her salt would would have seen the serious ramifications of that break.

The reason I have the positions in select health care names & AU simply due to the fact that the charts look terrific. Money is flowing into certain narrow sectors and one needs to find where. Simultaneously, outflows continue in the majority of market sectors and there are the short opportunities. This is a text book perfect 2 sided market.

>liquidated all equity positions<

Correction: Should read "liquidated or hedged all equity positions". I did sell very deep in the money covered calls at the time in some of the larger blue chip positions. Volatility exploded which made it very lucrative to use this strategy.

it looks like about 300k rent stabilized apartments will be coming back on the market if the state house passes the housing laws this spring. How is that going to affect co-ops/condos????