Reasons to Buy Now

obvious reason to buy now: a great price on a great apartment. there is a real estate market, of course, which is headed down. but each apartment is also its own special case, and there are some apartments that can probably be had now for an exceptional price--say 40 or 50% below peak comps--and if you find one of those and it is an apartment you love then why not buy it?

At the risk of being skwered...

1. Very low interest rates
2. Obama's $8,000 Tax Credit
3. It's right for your situation now.
4. Your willing to stay long-term.

The wife and I debated continuing to rent vs. buying now. It was a good discussion but we decided to wait a year to see what happens. It gives us a chance to put more in savings.

If price is the primary reason to buy now, then why not wait until prices fall further? I don't know this for sure but I would guess there are other compelling reasons for people to buy into a declining market. I just don't know what they are.

I bought because I was having a second child and needed to move.
I paid 16% below the ask in November- 60 Beach St.
Do I think I could sell my new place in a year at the price I bought it for?- Probably not
But I hope to at least get my money back the next time I move, which is probably at least 5 years away.
3 months later, I still dont see any places that I like better than what I bought for less than or equal to what I paid. Of course prices were and still are trending down, but how does that help me when im stck in a too small apt with 2 kids under 2? I thought then and still think now that prices will continue to come down, but how would that help me?? Sometimes you just need to take the plunge. After all, its not an investment, but my home.

BigG...why didn't you rent for a year or two and then purchase?

spinnaker,
i guess you didn't read my post:
obvious reason to buy now: a great price on a great apartment. there is a real estate market, of course, which is headed down. but each apartment is also its own special case, and there are some apartments that can probably be had now for an exceptional price--say 40 or 50% below peak comps--and if you find one of those and it is an apartment you love then why not buy it?

is there something about it that isn't clear? the point is that the real estate market doesn't move in lock step. while the market as a whole may be down 20-25%, individual units may be available at 40-50% off. if that's where you think the market is going to bottom, then buying now makes sense. or, if you actually think the market will never get that low--that some units are selling now for less than the overall market will ever get to--then it makes sense to buy now.

rents for a fairly nice 3 bedroom are 10k + p/month. Not sure how much longer I will be in the city anyway. Didnt want to get stuck in no mans land!

BigG...sorry about the rental comment...I was thinking about a junior 4 for $3000k.

need 3 bedrooms

julia says: BigG... "why didn't you rent for a year or two and then purchase?"

For the 5 gazillionth time, some people HATE moving, not to mention moving multiple times. Your nails break. Your papers are all over the place. You need to make 100 calls to change your address on file. Your important mail gets lost. The movers damage your $5,000 lamp and yout $10,000 bedroom set, enough to make them wiggly but not enough to get them replaced/repaired. You can't find anything for 2 weeks. There are people who'd rather pay $100k or $200k just to avoid having to go through such things twice in a few years.

nyc212...reasons not to rent...your nails break and that's a good reason to pay $100-200k additional..okay, I'm wrong, you're right...i wouldn't want anyone to break a nail!!

I thought the 8k tax credit has income limits? something like under $250K because that apparently is considered "rich" (i guess if you don't live in NYC!)

75k for individual 150k for couple...

julia, that's exacly my point. Not everyone shares your value priorities (although I did mention a series of other reasons which you decided to ignore), and you can't make suggestions based on yours (e.g., FiDi has no parks, and it's dead at night!--see another thread where julia exposes her own ignorance willingly).

bigG, rents for 3 beds have fallen way below $10k/month. and besides, doesn't that compare favorably to buying a 2,500+ sq foot 3 bed?

I just sold my 2BR and need to move to 3BR. Renting a true 3BR on the UES (Classic 7/8 not Classic 6, 2200-2400sft) in desirable neighborhood (Park Ave or West of Park Ave, doorman) still costs $15K and more. I am not going to rent for a year or two and move my children twice. Not really fair to them. They are already upset about leaving the only apartment they have ever known in their lives. So it's not all about money. An apartment is a place to live, a place where your family is home. So that's why I am looking to buy.

nyc...$5k lamp, $10k bedroom "set"...i guess if you can afford that $100- $200k extra means nothing but I have friends who married rich, very rich men who would never pay an additional $200k in because of a little inconvenience. Now, I'm leaving for a job interview so keep your fingers crossed I get it so I won't have time to post.

Special K, please find me a rental youu mention. Show me nice buildings with my specs for under $10K...

uppereast...110 east end avenue and broadwall have large apartments.

Julia, did you read my email? I am looking for an Park Ave or West of Park Ave apartment. East End has no appeal for me. Don't know where Broadwall is.

uppereast...in your situation I guess you're right about not wanting to move twice and it appears you can financially buy now and not wait for the maket to drop...you'll find something quickly and enjoy your new home.

uppereast..you're confusing me...one posting you're talking about the necessity of buying and not putting your children through moving and then you're posting about renting. Broadwall Org. is a management company that is on the upper east side and they have rentals. Majority of realtors now are no fee with the LL paying the fee..good luck on your purchase/rental.

Julia, I have two reasons to buy: (1) Don't want to move kids twice. (2) Don't see great deals for renting a what I perceive desirable apartment.

For me the days are over where I want to live in an ugly 1. Ave post-war apartment. I make enough money and want to enjoy my live. Apartments are not just an investment but a place where I spend most of my time outside of work. So is it worth for me to be miserable in an ugly apartment to save some money and wait for the market to drop?

interesting ...this is exactly the situation i now find myself in, thanks for the read.
i have 2 kids under 4 and the lease is up June 1 on our Columbia-area 2 BR (not even a true 2 BR, but spacious and nice w a river view.) Been looking to buy on & off for nearly 3 years -- thank god i didn't -- and now am even considering another year rental elsewhere as rents are declining too (which I gather is another bad sign ...rarely do rents AND sales prices go down together, right?) First I'm going to squeeze my landlord bigtime to see if and how much he'll lower my rent for as we could stay another year (paying $4300, having gone up 19% net over 2 renewals) $10K seems very high for a 3 BR rental, i think in Morningside & Manhattan Valley you can find them for >$6k? Question though -- does anyone know the best source for school info? I foubnd the city sites on zoning, but need to get the best scoop on which are the best ...
Thanks for all the informative reading,
Cheers

10K a month for 3 bedrooms? that seems way high. there are plenty out there for 4K - 5K and getting cheaper.
the deed is done but just curious - do you need the 3rd bedroom for a nanny or office? 2 bedrooms is plenty for
2 kids under 2.

See, I don't want to live in Morningside or Manhattan Valley. My two children go to private nursery school and will go to private ongoing this Fall. I want to stay in neighborhood. Friends of mine just renewed rental on Park Ave for another year. $14K for Classic 6 (although a large one). That's not attractive for me.

not morning side:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/451007-1225-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

most of what is out there in the range i mentioned is far east in 70's and 80's.
if you want park avenue you will pay park avenue prices.

if you are going to buy anyway, you will buy anyway someday, whenever you are ready ppl. I used to think waiting a year was a good idea, and maybe still is, i do not have the time or energy to really deconstruct the reasons why or why not, however, the only thing that concerns me is that if all buyers wait a year, then what? they will all be looking at once and may potentially lose out of a deal? i don't know that's what my manager says :) ha ha. Either way, i do not think that even the most data oriented gurus and hot insiders of real estate solutions and when to buy have the answer right now, who knows truly where things will be in a year, if you need to buy, buy smart, be well informed, and get a good deal where you can, not everything is up for grabs and not everything is up for sale :)

This is a Classic 5! I am looking for Classic 7/8. There is a big price difference between the two categories...

"if you want park avenue you will pay park avenue prices."

That's exactly why I am looking to buy...

julia: go to your interview...good luck..peace

upeast...curious your thoughts on a few buildings...what is your price range to buy?? if under 4mm..what about the listings at 22 e 88th...if above 4mm..what about the lisitngs at 983 park ave.

uppereast, i am talking about tribeca, soho, chelsea area. basically downtown. you'll notice that OP was on 60 beach, which is tribeca. don't know about the upper east at all.

Another consideration for buying now is the tax implication. If you do a quick tax analysis, considering the deductions for mortgage interest and the deductable portion of maintenance, your annual tax saving is approx 15-20k for a $700k apartment (20% down, 5.5% mort, $600 monthly *deductable* portion of main, 33% tax bracket). So keeping the 700k example, the annual out-of-pocket for purchasing would be about $4,000/mo x 12 = $48,000 (mortgage+mt), with a $16,000 tax benefit - net cost is $32,000, which makes the true cost about $2,666/month - and this doesn't include intangibles like having the move again, ability to customize your apt, etc... Also, while the market is flat now, I anticipate when it does start to move again, it will do so pretty quickly.

BigG - "rents for a fairly nice 3 bedroom are 10k + p/month. Not sure how much longer I will be in the city anyway. Didnt want to get stuck in no mans land!" - - And so you decided to buy? ;) Hmm...Glad you found a place you like.

Re: price of 3Br - We're currently looking at 3 br (classic 6's , etc) in UWS. You certainly can pay 10k+ but you don't need to for what I would consider a "fairly nice" apartment. Now, I don't have luxury standards, but we've seen some nice classic 6's for under $6500 (south of 86th St). I am bound and determined to get one for under $5500!

Park Ave is a different story.

Patient09, 983 is out of my price range. Saw 22 E 88th St. Like that it's gut renovated. Have you been there?

No, we are UWS people, but wifey is going to see 8F and 12F this week or next

uppereast, I understand exactly what you are going through. For some, finding a place where you want to live is more important than saving a few bucks living someplace you hate. I would also add that if you find the place you are looking for and it is highly desirable because of location, space, building etc. then, in my opinion, you are also less susceptible to real estate downturns. Highly desirable places in highly desirable areas hold value because people like uppereast want to live there. We are not talking about a crap apartment, with a lousy layout, in a fringe area. People on this board like to lump all properties into one category and that is a mistake. Also, stop comparing three bedroom apartments in other areas of the city to the place uppereast wants on Park. It is a fruitless exercise.

translation: "Because I'm rich, I've got money to burn, and I want my apartment NOW!"

We went through the same analysis ad naseum and decided to rent for 1-2 years with two young kids. Seeing our first rental today (same specs actually - Classic 7/8 in Carnegie Hill or West Village.) Very inconvenient to move more than once but I think the price differentials will be a lot more than $100K-$200K. I break my nails all the time so I can deal with that! I hope to be able to eventually buy that perfect apartment that we can't quite afford today.

lo888, let me know what you see (Carnegie Hill). I couldn't find anything I liked but would be curious to hear your opinion.

To answer spinnaker1's original question, I would agree w/ happyrenter that "a great price on a great apartment" would be enough for us in this market (if we were in a position to buy). I would even go so far as to say that a decent price on a well-liked apartment might be enough. If we wanted apartment X, felt very comfortable paying price Y, and found X for Y, I think we would buy in this market. My husband and I have already had this hypthetical conversation. I'm surprised there aren't more people who find this reasonable.

"I'm surprised there aren't more people who find this reasonable."

There are, just not on this board.

People on this board tend to think like investors...as such, buying right now is insane. To buy right now you need more of a consumer mindset - "I don't care if it will depreciate massively as long as i get the shiny new toy i want."

Understood. We certainly aren't "investors". Quite simply, we would be purchasing a nice place to live for a long period of time....

special_k, let's just say that, apart from wanting/needing 2500 sqft and 3 BRs in tribeca, some of the other conditions are ps234 (so we'll stick to tribeca for a search), elevator and doorman, which you get in 60 Beach.

Quick search on SE for 2000+ sqft, 3BR, 2Bathc, elevator, Doorman in tribeca gets you no listings for less than $10K per month. Cheapest is 11.5K at 101 Warren.

Granted, these prices may come down even further than the 15K that similar 3BRs were going for 18 months ago but the point is that, for what BigG was looking for or bought, there is nothing below 10K.

mbz: to counter your statement "People on this board tend to think like investors" I think you bring up an interesting point, but it has value. NYC is a unique marketplace. It offers about 70% of its stock as rentals, this is a massive number. The idea of renting for an extraordinarily long period of time is not uncommon. Because of the supply demand imbalance, it is quite rational for all residents to consider rent/buy calculations when making a decisions. Also, buying has a hidden danger in NYC, what are you actually buying? 100 yr old plumbing, electric etc..etc..etc..

thanks divvie.

Interpretation of most people on the board: If you don't agree with me there must be something wrong with you.

uppereast:
what about 103 e 75th st? There are 3 classic 7 apartments available there

It's not about agreeing, it's about which investment metrics you focus on. 99% of investors i know focus on yield - buying now earns ~3% yield or so (and falling). Even something as safe as investment grade bonds typically earn 8%+. There is no disagreement on those numbers. However, the other 1% of investors view NYC as something unique which will ensure that someone will buy your property for a higher price even though the traditional investment math doesn't work. I happen to reject that thesis but others are welcome to follow it (you'll typically find me on the other side of your trades).

A healthy market is comprised of people with disparate views--for every buyer there is a seller. I'm afraid the real estate market we experienced this decade was lopsided and unhealthy. Formerly, it was positive with too many buyers, resulting in bidding wars and outsized price gains. Now the market has shifted to predominantly negative with a dearth of buyers and price chops. Participate in such a market at your peril.

"it's about which investment metrics you focus on. 99% of investors i know focus on yield - buying now earns ~3% yield or so (and falling). Even something as safe as investment grade bonds typically earn 8%+. "

mbz, how do you factor in the "yield" of having a place to live. You can't live in an investment grade bond.

As I read it, the reasons for purchase are:

1. Buyer is satisfied price has been discounted sufficiently to invest for long term.
2. Growing family needs more space; rent options are limited or undesirable; values the stability offered by purchase.
3. Found the apartment of your dreams in a great area and feel protected from big downward risk.
4. Tax implications favor the buy side of the rent/purchase argument.
5. Money no object.

All very thoughtful rationale. For me, I am juggling all these factors (except 5). Its a regular discussion at the dinner table. We scour the new listings and hit the open houses while watching the approaching storm clouds. I see nobody is brave enough to say they feel the bottom is within sight.

mbz, for me, it's not all about investment. I want to raise my family in the apartment, can't do that in a bond...

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” - Warren Buffett

The way it works is this: the rich sell for $8, which means the poor buys for $8. Then when the stock price decreases to $6, the amateur sells it back to the rich, who of course now pays $6 for it back. Then when the stock price goes back to $8, the rich sell it to the poor again, which means the poor pays $8 again. Then when the price decreases back to $6, the amateur gets nervous again and sells it back to rich for $6.

Believe it or not, this happens all the time and is one of the many reasons why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

aifamm, this amateur has owned for 20 years. who says the real estate market is going to bounce? I doubt Buffett does. Have you ever seen a bell curve?

Your statement sounds an awful lot like the inverse of "Real Estate Prices Will Always Go Up"

spin - maybe you're overthinking it ;)

how about this: screw the hypothesized continuing downward spiral of the market. If you're buying for long term use (10-20 years), and are finding places you like in your price range, what is holding you back? Does it matter where the bottom is?

spin - maybe you're overthinking it ;)

how about this: screw the hypothesized continuing downward spiral of the market. If you're buying for long term use (10-20 years), and are finding places you like in your price range, what is holding you back? Does it matter where the bottom is?

By the way, I wasn't poking at your screenname amateur, it was a copy/paste from a random article.

Major stock market indexes fall to 1997 levels

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gHs5OM3gFG_DytQQZFbWfgPT08MAD96HEV5G0

Bottom line for me, it's impossible to time the bottom. I feel like if you buy something now in a desirable location it's going hold it's value better that something in the outer reaches of nowhere NYC. Location, location, location. Even if it drops a little, it's a long-term investment. Plus sellers are extremely negotiable right now, rates are good, and some developers are throwing in pretty incredible incentives ... like price protection, etc.

uwsmom - You bet we're overthinking it! At the moment we are comfortable in a rental that we like, our daughter is in a great preschool for another year, however, our public school district ain't so hot. So eventually we want to get into a better school zone and we want to buy something that's at least as good as what we have now. I am finding this a fascinating exercise so I'm fine if it takes another year or two. But I'm also curious about what is driving the market today, hence the reason for the post. There have been 65 contracts signed on properties that listed within the last 60 days in Manhattan. A very small percentage of this market seems to be functioning surprisingly well.

uppereast - just saw 12 East 87th Street. Odd layout, antiquated bathrooms and subpar kitchen (whith decent appliances.) Bedrooms are small and it's on a low floor. Part time doorman, bad lobby. Can be rented for up to 4 years (coop has no restriction). Not interested in a renter (us) looking for 1 year renewable lease. Rent $11K, asking $2.95 million. Dream on... http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/464576-coop-12-east-87th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

About the buy vs. rent thing. Nobody is looking to move that much or inconvenience their families. It's just a question of how comfortable you are spending more per month for the same space. I wouldn't buy for investment value right now and many apartments are far cheaper to rent than buy. I do agree that the selection leaves a lot to be desired though. Also agree that you can't call the bottom but it would be hard to convince anyone that we are almost there at this stage.

fine, how about this for a 3bd in clinton hill for $5,000 and no broker fee:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/460811-rental-clinton-new-york

I could go on and on regarding large 2,000 sq ft+ 2 bed convertibles and true 3beds around the city that are under $10k. sure, they're not perfect. and do you really need 3 true beds (vs large 2bd convert) for 2 young kids + 2 parents? and maybe not as nice as a place you'd buy. but really, rent vs buy are not even in the same ballpark. let's use real math.

60 beach has a number of properties on the market that are 3 beds, asking around $3.5mm+. Let's say you got that for $3.0mm. So assume you put 25% down and have no closing costs. With a 5.5% i/o loan, you're interest payments would be $10,300/month. add onto that $2,300 in common charges and $2,100 in taxes, your up to $14,700. Let's say you get 40% tax shield (remember state & local shield less than marginal rate). So after tax, you are out $9,750.

But that's only the beginning. IMHO, those apartments are going to fall at least another 25% from today, probably within 18 months (if not sooner). So the $750k you put in will be a doughnut. Even if it took 24 months to get there, that's $750k/24 = $31,250/month. So the conclusion is:

Rent = $5,000 (or whatever)/month + maximum financial flexibility and no debt

or

Buy = $9,750 + 31,250 = $41,000/month.

Believe it or not, I'm actually being aggressive with the "buy" scenario. Because I would argue (very strongly) that you could put that $750k into the markets in the next 1-6 months and get a 25% return for the next couple of years on it if you were good (not even great) on timing. So you'd have to add on to costs the foregone return on that $750k in the "buy" scenario or add it as a revenue source in the "rent" scenario.

by 2 bed convertible, i mean a true 2 bed that converts to 3 beds. maybe i should have just said 3 bed convertible.

Special_K - She may not even need to settle on the rental. I would be more comfortable paying a little more than I should for a couple of years on a nice rental than committing to a purchase in a rapidly declining market. It's much easier to get out of a rental and if her family is happy in the new space, she may not have the bug she does now to buy and will hold out for better things down the line.

special_K: You keep bringing up rentals in random areas. As I stated: My kids go to school on UES and that's where I want to live. Show me the good rental opportunities ON Park Ave or West of Park Ave. Thanks!!

lo888 - good point. i would pay a premium too and that price point of rental is really tanking now. i forgot to add that in the buy scenario, you are also saddled with $2.25mm of debt.

uppereast - if you have strong constraints then you'll just have to pay for them. i wrote that to bigG as an example of what is out there. surf around a bit and i bet you'll get good opportunities, maybe not on park or whatever, but in the right school district. and rents are FAR more quickly negotiable than sales. a friend of mine got 20% below ask (which was just dropped 15% prior to that) on a place by paying a year of rent upfront. and so what if your kids have to change schools to find a much cheaper rental? suck it up, or spend the money. doesn't matter to me.

Special_K: I take it you don't have kids...

Special_K & others of like mind. First of all, someone who wants to live on the UES will not settle for Clinton (or similar neighborhood). A good 3-bed West of Park in the UES begins north of $10K and goes all the way up to $30K per month. Yes, better deals available in the high UWS, but again, not as desirable as Park Ave. Second, you make an assumption that the market will continue to weaken significantly. This may be the case, but at this point, betting on stabilization or an uptick is contrarian, and a lot of people are OK being a contrarian. You do not have a crystal ball to price in an additional 25% drop to already soft prices. Even in economy-ravaged areas of CA, FL, NV, prices have for the most part bottomed at about 50% off peaks, following much more rapid price growth than NYC. I can't imagine that prime neighborhoods in Manhattan will come down 50%, but who knows? In any case, there are plenty that want a home, can afford it, see (what they consider to be) decent deals, and don't like being in a rental. I personally can't stand renting, especially with young children in the picture, as it feels too transitionary. And good luck trying to explain to a woman who is in nesting mode why it's a better idea to rent for a year and then purchase.

"and so what if your kids have to change schools to find a much cheaper rental?"

That's a wonderful idea. While uppereast is at it, he/she can buy a home in Detroit for $59,000 and home school the kids. Just think of the money you will save!

is it just me or are the posters on streeteasy spewing bs about how much they have to spend, etc. Has streeteasy become a fantasy site for some people to talk about apartments on Park Avenue, etc. If I had money to buy/rent on Park Avenue I would be working with a realtor but fortunately i am going to start a new job March 1 so my days on streeteasy will be coming to a close....

reason to buy: "woman in nesting mode" It's a real reason, but not necessarily a rational one

upper - what does my having kids have to do with anything? even if you were to move from say, PS6, you could still keep your kids there. maybe the commute is a little longer, but so what?

"A good 3-bed West of Park in the UES begins north of $10K and goes all the way up to $30K per month. Yes, better deals available in the high UWS, but again, not as desirable as Park Ave."

this sounds like the same broker rhetoric that got us into this zany bubble to begin with. oh, god forbid i should EVER have to live one block east of park!! seriously, lexington is such a slum that i would be fearful for my children's safety. and between lex and 3rd? that is like the gaza strip! only crazy poor people live there!!

Sjpecial_K...love your posting..someone who thinks a little out of the box of bs..

Special_K, do you live in Manhattan? If so, why do you live in Manhattan when it would be so much cheaper to live in NJ?

It might be worth noting that even with a declining market a price today at today's rates, over a long term may prove less expensive to purchase than a property at the bottom, when mortgage rates begin to rise as the market realizes the bottom has passed, just on the cost of the interest rate difference on the sums involved.

Not looking to get jumped-on here....

I think some people may want to buy now because there is less competition. If you like what you see, can afford it and feel it is a good deal and you choose to wait there is always the chance you could lose it to someone else. This won't happen all the time for sure, but for those people who are waiting for prime GV to go to $400 sf, my bet is that you will be missing out on a lot of properties that you liked.

This doesn't mean, "buy now or be priced out forever". It just means, if you like the apartment a lot there is always the chance someone else will too. If you like it enough to pull the trigger now and feel good enough about it's price and ability to maintain value it's not outrageous to make a move now.

special_k - gaza strip...haha...great line!

Wow - Special_K, you sound like an angry, angry man/woman. I don't see how my statement about certain peoples' geographic preference bears any likeness to broker drivel, but I'll dumb it down for you with the hope of clearing up any confusion: for certain people, there is no world outside of what exists between Park through Fifth. I am not one of those people, but don't begrudge or judge those that are. By doing just that, you bare yourself as the self-conscious, pathetic, jealous renter that you are. Enjoy your rental, make sure you time the bottom perfectly, and don't ever, ever trust a broker - they are out to take your hard-earned money.

FYI - things don't get much cheaper near Lex, or Third for that matter. You can have Clinton.

OTNYC - there is a real and significant difference in prices as you move east from Park Avenue. It is not only reflected in the price, but also in the amount down required, how much cash you need to have after the purchase and the strictness of the boards. A coop on 1st, 2nd or even 3rd Avenue (for the most part) is going to be worlds different than the coop on Park, Madison or 5th when it comes to these aspects.

this is my original comment:

"bigG, rents for 3 beds have fallen way below $10k/month. and besides, doesn't that compare favorably to buying a 2,500+ sq foot 3 bed?"

no where in that comment did i say rents for 3 beds west of park in UE are way below $10k. uppereast said you can't find any. and i didn't debate it.

"for certain people, there is no world outside of what exists between Park through Fifth. I am not one of those people, but don't begrudge or judge those that are. By doing just that, you bare yourself as the self-conscious, pathetic, jealous renter that you are."

OTNYC, you are clearly an owner and so i will patiently forgive your defensiveness. Why would I be jealous of losing 30% of my home value as an owner? don't judge people that think there is no world outside of what exists between park & 5th? are you crazy? i don't have anything against someone who likes the area and can afford it, or even that prefers to live there. but no world existing outside of park & 5th?? give me a break...

I think the point is, Special K, that children do bring a whole slew of other considerations into the equation.

Is it actually true that you can still attend a zoned school if you move away? If so, after how long?

Assuming this is true, this still presents logistical problems such as arranging playdates or arranging classes outside of school in the same places as the kids' friends. Also, school drop off, when it is hard enough spending time with you kids when working becomes an issue if you live too far away or if the school is in the opposite direction of work. Overall, the community that you build with the children and parents outside of school as well as the PTA meetings, fundraisers in the school, is difficult to maintain if you move out of the area. These kinds of considerations are difficult to quantify the impact on other people and are certainly not as simple as a cash flow calc.

That is not to say that someone should simply buy without considering the alternatives but not everything in life is simple and children complicate matters tremendously.

On another note, of course I know 60 Beach very well and unless you rent from an owner of 60 Beach or 7 Hubert, or 429 Greenwich, or 92 Laight, or 25 & 27 Northmoore, or 124 Hudson, then it is very difficult to find the quality, size, layout, amenities of those places if you go to the rental buildings such as 121 Reade, 88 Leonard. 105 Duane. Having said that, the many rentals that are now out there for 101 Warren is finally providing an unprecedented (referring to the rental buildings I mentioned) opportunity to get that kind of quality, size, layout, amenities at a decent price. Actually the size of the apts are typically smaller per number of bedrooms than the condos I mentioned but they are almost there.

I think the point is, Special K, that children do bring a whole slew of other considerations into the equation.

Is it actually true that you can still attend a zoned school if you move away? If so, after how long?

Assuming this is true, this still presents logistical problems such as arranging playdates or arranging classes outside of school in the same places as the kids' friends. Also, school drop off, when it is hard enough spending time with you kids when working becomes an issue if you live too far away or if the school is in the opposite direction of work. Overall, the community that you build with the children and parents outside of school as well as the PTA meetings, fundraisers in the school, is difficult to maintain if you move out of the area. These kinds of considerations are difficult to quantify the impact on other people and are certainly not as simple as a cash flow calc.

That is not to say that someone should simply buy without considering the alternatives but not everything in life is simple and children complicate matters tremendously.

On another note, of course I know 60 Beach very well and unless you rent from an owner of 60 Beach or 7 Hubert, or 429 Greenwich, or 92 Laight, or 25 & 27 Northmoore, or 124 Hudson, then it is very difficult to find the quality, size, layout, amenities of those places if you go to the rental buildings such as 121 Reade, 88 Leonard. 105 Duane. Having said that, the many rentals that are now out there for 101 Warren is finally providing an unprecedented (referring to the rental buildings I mentioned) opportunity to get that kind of quality, size, layout, amenities at a decent price. Actually the size of the apts are typically smaller per number of bedrooms than the condos I mentioned but they are almost there.

I think the point is, Special K, that children do bring a whole slew of other considerations into the equation.

Is it actually true that you can still attend a zoned school if you move away? If so, after how long?

Assuming this is true, this still presents logistical problems such as arranging playdates or arranging classes outside of school in the same places as the kids' friends. Also, school drop off, when it is hard enough spending time with you kids when working becomes an issue if you live too far away or if the school is in the opposite direction of work. Overall, the community that you build with the children and parents outside of school as well as the PTA meetings, fundraisers in the school, is difficult to maintain if you move out of the area. These kinds of considerations are difficult to quantify the impact on other people and are certainly not as simple as a cash flow calc.

That is not to say that someone should simply buy without considering the alternatives but not everything in life is simple and children complicate matters tremendously.

On another note, of course I know 60 Beach very well and unless you rent from an owner of 60 Beach or 7 Hubert, or 429 Greenwich, or 92 Laight, or 25 & 27 Northmoore, or 124 Hudson, then it is very difficult to find the quality, size, layout, amenities of those places if you go to the rental buildings such as 121 Reade, 88 Leonard. 105 Duane. Having said that, the many rentals that are now out there for 101 Warren is finally providing an unprecedented (referring to the rental buildings I mentioned) opportunity to get that kind of quality, size, layout, amenities at a decent price. Actually the size of the apts are typically smaller per number of bedrooms than the condos I mentioned but they are almost there.

divvie, my understanding is that you can have your children attend that school until they graduate. so let's say you move in 2nd grade. then you can either go to the new school or stay in the original one until 5th grade.

"That is not to say that someone should simply buy without considering the alternatives but not everything in life is simple and children complicate matters tremendously."

agreed on this point and on the logistical issues as well. my skepticism is simply to the notion of buying because renting is roughly the same monthly cost (as i demonstrated with a real example). it is not nearly the same monthly costs IF the market continues to decline. and no amount of rationalization will change that. if the market only goes up from here, then i will happily concede i was wrong. i don't know the area well, but i believe your assessment of rental vs. owner buildings. but i bet that you will get many shots at renting from distressed owners at some of those buildings very soon, if not already.

Thanks for the response.
I'm actually saying that what you are betting is happening with 101 Warren which has only just recenlty started closings. the other buildings, as I have mentioned in the past, typically show very few resales because they are desirable and have had people in from early on so they have less skin in the game.

Julia. Congrats on your job. Interview must have gone well!!

blossom16...thanks but I received an offer from another interview and I accepted..don't know about this interview..what I found interviewing firms (not financial) are not making offers that I thought I would get so I accepted and figured I'll look again when times are better.

aifamm: “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” - Warren Buffett

I think Warren was trying to conserve words. I believe what he really mean was: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy [and prices have overshot to the upside] and Greedy When Others Are Fearful [and prices have overshot to the downside].

The rules are very different in illquid markets like real estates. Prices are not even close to reflecting the level of fear that is (justifiably) present. I will be greedy when prices are fearful, but no sooner.

As for living in an investment grade bond...you can easily rent and use the proceeds you save buy not buying to invest in a more attractive class.

julia:
"is it just me or are the posters on streeteasy spewing bs about how much they have to spend, etc. Has streeteasy become a fantasy site for some people to talk about apartments on Park Avenue, etc. If I had money to buy/rent on Park Avenue I would be working with a realtor but fortunately i am going to start a new job March 1 so my days on streeteasy will be coming to a close...."

Julia, If I had listened to realtors I would have already purchased two apts for over 5mm, one on CPW, one on Park. Both are currently listed approx $1.5mm lower than when they told me to buy 6 months ago, and they are still over priced. I think one of the reasons why I can afford an apt in this price range is that I have a modest amount of common sense, which is about double the amount of the average agent. Additionally, any job that requires a few hours of study and passing a test doesn't seem like a job that requires too much in the way of smarts. I'll take my chances on my own. Finally, over the last 22 years I have bought and sold 9 homes, rental property and raw land in 4 different states. I don't think I am the only one on these boards with similar views.

Well to be fair, if you ask ANY salesperson if you should buy their product, what do you think their response will be?

patient09...i always appreciate your insights and this posting is no different..what I posted before were people who say they are very rich asking posters what, where how they should rent/purchase..you took your own advice and your own chances and they paid off. People living on Park Avenue and getting advice from Streeteasy seems off balance to me. If I had that much money I would have a circle of friends and associates who would give me that type of advice, again not from streeteasy. But I do want to say you have always been very nice to me and your postings have been terrific.

Julia:
Nice of you to say but I will insist on getting the last word, several posters on SE have offered a fairer, clearer view of particular properties than ANY agent I have ever met. In particular HR and 81 and few others, they blow the doors off any agent.

i'm giving you the last word because I agree with you ali, west 81st, HR and others have been terrific and I will continue to enjoy and learn from their postings, just not as often since I'll be working. thanks again patient09..

Julia, some posters on streeteasy are so smart and have such great insights that you can't find in a lot of realtors. Not saying all realtors are bad, but it's VERY hard to find a good one, who understands the market well. If I am investing 5 million into something, I'd try understand everything myself rather than rely on one other person.

wc..i agree to a certain extent but since i have only $400k I would want experts such as realtors and posters such as ali, 81st, HR but there aren't that many...the posters are at times cruel and close minded such as divvi who said i probably never go out at night and am annoyingly dull which might be right since I've been posting on SE way too much.

getting back to the original question:

i'm closing soon on a condo that i saw almost a year ago - it was always at the top of the list, and a year later it's almost sold out, we ended up at a great number, it has its CO/is occupied and it was just the right time, personally. compare it to other properties we were interested in - not one has its CO, not one has gone into contract on more than 25% of the units (and that's a generous number). we would've been in a really terrible waiting game if we'd gone with any of them.

Frankly i'm glad not to be throwing away another $25-30k or so for another year's rent - i doubt waiting another 9-12 months would have saved me much more than that.

"As for living in an investment grade bond...you can easily rent and use the proceeds you save buy not buying to invest in a more attractive class"

I agree, but that is a very different comparison than your original statement of "buying now earns ~3% yield or so (and falling). Even something as safe as investment grade bonds typically earn 8%+. There is no disagreement on those numbers"

Owner occupied real estate is not an investment. If you choose to treat it as such, then compare it to the cost of renting plus down payment money and the delta from renting invested at a risk free rate.