New York Area Home Prices to Fall 15%, Economist Rosen Says

Prices are not falling 15%. If you read the article, the economist was only applying the 15% figure to the bubble markets like CA, FL, and NV, not NY.

"Across the U.S., Rosen predicted house prices will fall another 7 percent, with parts of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona posting additional declines of as much as 15 percent as those states absorb record foreclosures."

alpine292 - the first paragraph was as follows:

"Home prices in the New York City metropolitan area will fall as much as 15 percent as Wall Street firms cut jobs and slash bonuses, according to Kenneth Rosen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley."

I don't know who this guy is, but that's what he said.

It does not sound like the "economist" is too confident in his numbers, hence why he said prices will fal "as much" as 15% rather than just flat out say prices will fall 15%. I tend not to trust people who use language like that to cover their ass.

Also, notice that he is referring to the entire metropolitan area, which is hardly one unified market. Point is, one guy in Berkeley, CA says the NY-area market will fall "as much as 15%". Who cares. Some other people say it will fall even further than that. Meanwhile, brokers say now is the time to buy.

I think anyone who is paying attention to the local economy, the mortgage situation, declining rents, rising inventory levels, etc., etc., knows that prices will continue to drift lower. How much lower? No one knows.

15% is nothing since apartments in manhattan probably rose 300% in the last six years.

Hoboken appears to be holding it's own thus far: http://hobokenrealestatenews.com/

We are in the fourth year of a housing recession that took almost three years to reach Manhattan. If you are an owner without a crazy mortgage and don't need to move soon, prices will eventually rebound. They always have. If you are a speculator with a crazy adjustable rate, sorry.

Clarence

We are in the fourth year of a housing recession that took almost three years to reach Manhattan. If you are an owner without a crazy mortgage and don't need to move soon, prices will eventually rebound. They always have. If you are a speculator with a crazy adjustable rate, sorry.

Problem is this time we have massive deficits, we owe the world 11-13 trillion, and we outsourced our jobs all over the world along with our manufacturing base while Wall Street financially engineered toxic waste in the form of leverage in housing and credit bubbles.......

alpine, do you read the comps threads, or is the reality too painful? really, west81, hr, patient09 and other steady foot soldiers are doing the work proving the decline at every level with proof each and every day.

please, do yourself and us a favor and take a look at the listings. things are tanking, and we're not talking new development. if you have no frame of reference, spend a long day reading the comps threads, particularly the UWS one.

YA! Alpine292... that goes double for ME! whatever aboutready said!

FWIW, uwsmom is having another.... Congratulations uwsmom! For her sake, let's hope 3 bdrms hit $800K (prime baby!), or else we'll lose another coool one to the burbs!

Is this true uwsmom? (not to disparage w67th's info of course)

If so congrats on a huge level.

If you need some help, remember that there is a surplus right now of qualified people (unlike a few years ago). Think outside the box, maybe contact Bank Street or Columbia's Teachers School or even their general employment board. Good luck and much joy.

alpine, i just read one of your comments more closely. he's talking about the "bubble" markets. can you honestly say with a straight face that Manhattan was not a bubble market? by the way, that old concept that there's no more space for residential in Manhattan? was, is, and for the medium-term and possibly longer future will continue to be, a total fabrication.

I don't know if reality has set in for sellers, it will, just takes a little more time but it has definitely set in with LLs..rents are dropping and very quickly.

julia, i have a couple of friends who are (honest) real estate brokers. the deals that are getting done are, for the most part, nowhere near asking prices, unless those prices are very low (by recent standards). prices are down, way down. they are down less for apartments that can easily be financed with conforming loans, but those are down as well.

btw, i'm so glad you're doing well. and to think, the decisions you may have to make. a RS apartment, an alcove studio, or if you hang in there for another year or two a large one bedroom may be in your future!!!

Of course, Manhattan was a BUBBLE market.

Take a look at these price Case-Shiller Price increases for the period 2000 to 2006 (inclusive):

$1 Grows To:

Las Vegas: $2.32
Los Angeles: $2.71
Miami: $2.82
San Francisco: $2.14
Washington D.C.: $2.41

What about New York?

Here I go with Miller Samuel Manhattan condo/coop price per share foot for period 2000 to 2007 (inclusive). I added an extra year to Manhattan as it took at least an extra year to peak out.

$1 Grows To:

Manhattan condo/coop: $2.80

You might also be interested to see the comparable Case-Shiller figure for the New York metro area:
$1 Grows To:

New York Metro: $1.98

(I know the Miller Samuel numbers don't use the same methodology but I do think they do reasonably accurately show how much more robust the Manhattan market was relative to the New York metro market. And they also show how New York has kept pace with the leading speculative metro areas of the U.S.)

topper, very interesting comparison you present.

Julia, have a little look-see at the new listings from the last couple of days. Fun, fun, fun!!!