longterm value hells kitchen?

put down 139,500.. woops

are you ready to leave behind $139,500..you have a contract.

yes

I really dislike hell's kitchen and over a million there is a lot. I would go for a more established neighborhood a year or so out. Prices are going to continue to fall - especially with that budget

It's your decision.

I have a very good friend who works as a real estate broker at one of the big ones. For three years she sincerely told me at least once every six months that real estate in NYC is still a good bet. I like her, so I moderated my responses to a "well, I have some concerns" level. But she, along with her cohorts, were sat down at regular intervals with "experts" who came in at meetings to explain why the situation was so beautiful. This past year she has routinely said wait about a year, I still like her so I don't tell her that 4-5 years seems better to me.

It's your money, your risk, your decision. The only thing I will say, although I think the 505 may turn into a fright show, is that Hell's Kitchen is now the area that the gay community has been moving into, the development there wasn't nearly as extensive as downtown, and the school options are horrendous (with a couple of exceptions, there is a good music-oriented school I believe), so at least in the short term the neighborhood has a ceiling. Actually, in the short term the neighborhood will have a bottom, and it will most certainly be below your purchase price.

ok. I think the gay influx is a good thing, because it may increase property value since gay people (as a generalization of course) have money. the schools i agree are awful, but I will send the kids to private school if necessary.

My estimation places hells kitchen area in the following way:

not an undesirable area with little growth potential- like Harlem (no offense), wash heights, two bridges, alphabet city west of ave a.

I see it right now, and hopefully not forever, as a fringy area like chinatown, les,
battery park city, financial district.

Not yet there, a lower level upper wanting to be enclave (an area where price
gains will be modest compared to other areas) such as murray hill, kips bay, east village, ave
a area.

may reach nonfringe status of chelsea and tribeca at some point.

probably won't ever reach established heights like ues, uws, gramercy, soho, etc.

As you appear to want real input as to the neighborhood, I'll add a couple of comments. Fringy on some levels is not really that bad, and can in itself cause appreciation. Have you looked at prices in the East Village? There is no product, because Bloomberg's administration took forever making the zoning decisions and wanted a neighborhood that retained the "original" character of NYC. Prices may actually fall less there as a result.

Harlem has some medium-term and beyond growth potential. Short term I worry about. Most people who bought in Harlem weren't the short-term types, lot of commitment, retail space is and will be very cheap, could become nightlife and restaurant draw for UWS residents, etc. Too early to tell. Except for the past year or so, people paid VERY little comparatively for their homes, they will lose money but probably not at the same rate. Who knows, really, though.

I like Hell's Kitchen, but I don't mind the "younger" neighborhoods as much as some. As a parent, it is close to Central Park, it can be a bit sketchy, but no more than Chelsea, where we raised our daughter during some of the early formative years. It's proximity to midtown business and its retail/restaurants align it more with Murray Hill, but with a far more artsy bent. If you like it and have absolutely no need to leave in the next 10 years and don't mind losing money, at the very least in real, after-inflation terms, then go for it. But only if you have confidence that the development will succeed, which if I'm thinking of the right development, should be a major concern. After you close you can't just walk away from your obligations, and buying in a failed development can make losing $140k look like a picnic. Good luck.

Chuckufarley we have a group of people who all bought at the 505 and are organizing to see if concessions are available. If you would like to join the group here is the info:

If you are in contract at the 505 and have not already joined our group on Facebook, we ask you to contact us immediately to discuss thoughts about the development as we approach crucial closings in the next few months. Brokers, sales agents and other parties - DO NOT REPLY. This group is for FUTURE RESIDENTS ONLY.

505HKResidents@gmail.com

We look forward to hearing from you.

-Future 505HK Residents

How much of the building is sold? If not near 70%, then that alone could be sufficient reason to walk.

It's hard to believe a gentrifying area is only down 10% from peak- you can judge better than us if the neighborhood is really only down 10% as your broker claims, but I doubt it. The market cycle for up-and-coming areas is hottest late in the cycle (2005-2006) and coldest right after. We are about as far from a hot part of the cycle as you can get right now.

My husband and I bought a two bedroom penthouse in Hell's Kitchen in 1989 when it was a "fringey" neighborhood so interesting that 20 years later it is still a "fringey" neighborhood-- when we had our first child in 1994 we wished we could sell and move to a better neighborhood for kids, but of course we couldn't get what we paid for it then and we had to pass on an UES side apt that would have fit us perfectly then and now -- we did finally sell it and for a profit in 1996 -- my guess is you will be able to do the same thing at 505, but it could take 7 years to make a small profit!

This area is SO fringe.

Sure, its Hell's Kitchen, but it is the fringe fringe ... so far out, not near subway lines, a great place for the homeless to hang out. You have to count on the new transportation to ocme ... yes, after the 2nd avenue line, which will be built after the current MTA "doomsday" crisis averts ... e.g. something still to be talked about in 20 years.

Don't.

Maven, Your more Fringe than HK.

I lived in the city from 85 to 91 then I moved to the burbs to have kids. Unfortunately its a little too soon for me to move back (my kids have another 4 years before they are both in collage) otherwise I would definitely be making low ball offers to pick up something in the city in the current economy. The question is where in the city? My gut tells me HK is one of the best areas for appreciation. Proximity to Broadway, and "filling in" from 42 up and Columbus Circle down is now "manifest destiny."

I remember how horrible 42nd street and the port authority bus terminal were in the early 80's. (not to mention the smell/pollution drugs & crime!) But that's ancient history now and 42nd, Broadway & Columbus are all really great real estate. It would be one thing if HK were simply adjacent to some good area, but it is surrounded by great real estate on three sides, and roof top deck space will have great views/light forever because of height restrictions all over Clinton. I wish I were ready to buy now, but buying just to rent for 4 years doesn't make economic sense, at least not yet.)

If you are looking to buy now, IMHO HK is a good place to be looking.

the real Hell's Kitchen is from west 49th through 57th. The below and above are just brokers' gimmicks. In the 50s, it's a great place, all along 8th, 9th and 10th Avenues. Not sure about the kids' stuff, though. But for many many people that's what makes it great: no strollers and such. Hope it stays this way.

Do you like to go to stripclubs?

moving into? the "Gs" have been in HK for 4,5 decades.

I have done a number of rentals in HK, one recently at 416 West 47th, full service condo with a putting/chipping green!(2 bed/2bath, 1000F2 $3000 per month). You bought at the top of a bubble hype market, staying for 10 years and like the hood? Buy...I guess. I would be sick to walk on $140k. But is the alternative any better, it's a (big) gamble IMHO. This will probably settle at $700 ppsf., will it get back to over $1000?

Yeah, I've been living (renting) in HK over ten years now and it's definitely changed for the better in my eyes. However, I see it as a neighborhood for young folks, but not families - unless you are committed to private schools or home schooling. I think the attraction to the gay community here is the low price, hip new joints/nightlife, and the fact that they really don't have concerns about public schools for the most part. JMHO ofcourse, but I'm out of this neighborhood before my wife and I get serious about having 'em kids. I'm looking to buy elsewhere in Manhattan in 12-18 months in a better public school district.

The only hellish parts of HK are east of 9th btw 47th/57th at most. Most of the rest is so chock full of new high rise luxury buildings its hardly hellish like it once was. As for some being far from the subways - yes and no, depending on where you live. But there are areas of Tribeca, Chelsea, Gramercy, and the UES just as far or farther, and yet they are not "fringe" so...

I always like it how the overwhelming majority of Manhattan and NYC, both by population and land area is somehow "the fringe." As in only Manhattan below 96th west of second/brodway(once below Houston), north of Canal but excluding everything from 34th to 57th west of 5th ave is the "fringe." The minority of inhabitants of Manhattan and certainly NYC, as well is far less than half of land area of both are in this non-"fringe" area. I think if anything its the other way around, these areas are the high-end fringe, and everyone else lives in "real" New York.

Best to be near the subway, a dry cleaner and a supermarket. People are more comfortable investing in building with access to transportation and basic services.

wow that broker's opinion sounds great about HK. great reason not to give concessions or price breaks to us contractees.

it's also interesting to refer to hells kitchen as "HK." No one else I know does.

yes, i immediately think hong kong.

HK is great. The food selection is reasonable and has excellent homemade variety. The view over the sunset in the west is lovely and the theatre district is close at hand. HK is much better in the longrun than many pllaces -- it is centrally located in midtown.

Hells Kitchen is hot. I happen to know that on the block of the 505 alone Olgivy & Maather is opening their world headquarter on the corner of 47th and 11th ave with 2000 ptofessionals moving there in summer 09 into with a 20 year lease. Plus Kimpton hotel group from San Fran is opening a classy David Rockwell Group designed 4 star hotel on the corner of 48th and 11th ave also in summer 09 which will have a Gansevort style rood bar, restaurant and lounge, With these facts in mind its a good short term & long term play

The building has a lot of curb appeal -- I hope that enough people close so that you are not trapped in an undersold situation.