It's Official: The RE Market Has Bottomed

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Worst-may-be-over-for-new-apf-15029872.html?.v=12

thanks for the article. However, I think the bottom will truly be reached when EXISTING home sales bottom out since they make up the overwhelming majority of the sales.

Just posting articles. I'm not buying this crap.

It's hard to time the bottom because the bottom will not come for the entire country at once. If you look at home sales in the foreclosure dominated cities like Los Angeles, Phoenix and Las Vegas, existing home sales have substantially increased. So in some cases, the bottom in home sales has arrived and is long gone...

Any uptick here will be a suckers rally. While we may not have a horse in the mortgage cluster fcuk, we are not immune to its consequences. Our bubble was driven by supply and demand pressure fueled by unsustainable BS earnings. In the end though, the results are the same. We have plenty more pain due, I believe, but the wealth here is deep and so it will likely soften the blow.

Buy now and be priced in forever.

That is only one step toward the bottom that should accelerate the drops as now people in denial cannot avoid the reality. The bottom will be here when nobody (including the media) cares any more.

alpine

You are a comic relief

It looked like it bottomed nationwide, and now this news:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/business/economy/29econ.html?_r=1&hp

Are these people kidding?
"In February, the price of single family homes in 20 major metropolitan areas fell 18.6 percent from the year earlier, compared with a record drop of 19 percent in January. Finally, we%u2019re seeing a touch of moderation, said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S.&P.%u2019s index committee. %u201CThis is the kind of thing one might see if we%u2019re beginning to see a bottom. I would not run out and celebrate, but I would not dig the bunker any deeper.%u201D

I wouldn't call "moderation" an 18.6% "ONLY" decline vs. a 19% decline the previous month!!!

Funny that the experts calling the bottom always forget to mention the Foreclosure Moratorium that was in place for 90 days from Dec to Feb...

March was a new record in Foreclosures by JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Freddie and Fannie due to the backlog

You can connect the dots....

Isn't this like the millionth time someone's called a bottom in the real estate slide? And, is it just me or does all this talk about bottoms have a slightly unsavory quality?

"NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - New York City's net personal income tax revenues plunged 51 percent in the first 24 days of April, compared with the same period a year ago, the city comptroller's office said on Monday."

and

"In the month of March alone, for instance, Wall Street shed 3,100 employees, according to the state's Department of Labor."

Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN2754670420090427

Decreasing tax revenues stemming from job losses do not exactly bode well for higher RE prices. No bottom for NYC.

hooray

let's see

44 New Listings
73 Price Cuts
29 Contracts Signed
11,106 Total Inventory

oops new highs in inventory oh well

While there was a "significant" drop in state corporate tax revenues in March, followed by a decline in personal income tax collections in April, Paterson added that there were signs the economy might stabilize sooner than anticipated.

"However, there seems to be a projection later in the year that things may not be as bad as we first thought that they would be."

The sooner we get on with the election the better.....

some good news from today's Case Shiller data:

Prices in 20 cities are down 18.6% in the past year, compared with a 19% drop in the 12 months ending in January. ****It was the first time in 16 months that the year-over-year decline in prices did not set a record.****

“While the declines in residential real estate continued into February, we witnessed some deceleration in the rate of decline in some of the markets,” said David M. Blitzer, head of the S&P index committee.

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas dropped in February at a slower pace, adding to evidence the market may be stabilizing.

The market may be bottomING, but NYC has been a big laggard to the rest of the country. I tend to agree that the downward trends look like they MIGHT be stabilizing, but NOT in Manhattan. We were one of the last to decline, and as such, will likely be one of the last to "bottom". Add that to the continued downward pressure on jobs, increasing property taxes, and ton of inventory coming on line in the next 12-18 months, and we could be looking at another 30% decline from CURRENT levels.

Cheers!

" does all this talk about bottoms have a slightly unsavory quality?"

Or desperate.

Does anyone have Case-Shiller type data for Manhattan condos and coops? Thanks.

We must have bottomed. I emailed two different brokers regarding listings which have no open house scheduled. No responses back.

gaongaon, they'e given up and relo'd for the summer, they're squatting in empty homes in the Hamptons.

akallabeth wrote "I love being a bottom"

Can you explain?

No one likes an aggressive bottom. Although it does seem that some here believe the RE market is going to be able to top from the bottom.

Generally I like things that are over the top, but not my markets.

Aboutready, one of the two listings that I emailed about and to which I received no response, has been chopped 100K today. Cute.

Just another couple of brokers doing some superb brokering. Did you insult them in the e-mail? If not, you should have, just to be proactive, you know?

I make it a practice of insulting brokers when I ask to see an apartment. My email address does not reveal my SE identity, so they have no reason to understand just how bearish I am.
Now I can compliment them on a job well done. And I thought that the "request for feedback" emails that I get after open houses was a sign that they sense a fiduciary responsibility to their clients, the sellers. How naive of me.

fiduciary duty. seems almost like a quaint concept. but that broker behavior is so '08, one has to wonder. depressed people don't always behave rationally.