Losing aprtments when bids are too low

Do you work at Corcoran, Elliman or BHS?

This is shocking. streeteasy threads said 50% off, then everything should be 50% off! I can't believe it.

My experience has been that there are great deals relative to what was possible 1 year ago, but it still holds that a desirable apartment will likely catch the eye of more than just one buyer (even in these leaner times). Once there's a competitive situation, you just can't expect to get the huge discount -- but you're likely to get a price that would have been inconceivable in the last couple of years. What neighborhood are you looking in (if you don't mind saying)?

yeah...precisely...name the places you lost. or go away.

When was considered the peak of NYC real estate? 2006 2007?

Ignore Jerkstore. This has happened to us too. However, in both cases, the apt had already slashed their ask down. The first one, we bid 10% under ask, but they already had lowered their price by 15% and someone obviously gave them closer to their bottom number than we were willing to. The other case was more competitive. They really dropped their price (like 33%) and got a lot of interest going. We offered above their final ask in the second case, but again, someone decided that the price was now too low and outbid us.

That's not to say that there aren't a lot of apts lingering on the market. It's just that we've only seen two that would work for us, and in both cases, others felt the same way. As a sidebar, we didn't start looking seriously until we got a signed contract on our place, so we haven't been looking seriously for very long. We are thinking of making one last offer on a place, and if it doesn't work out, no tears--we will just rent and look some more.

mjh1962 and lost: What price range is this occuring in? 500k-1mm? 1mm-3mm? over 5mm?

For us it's the 2m range. Honestly, on the UWS at least, there's still not a lot out there that's nice, bright and a true three bed with space for a home office (our needs). I have no problem giving columbiacounty one listing we lost: 315 West 106th. They dropped from 3M to 2M. We offered 2.1, but apparently didn't come close to what others wanted to pay. I will be interested to see what it went for.

nice try!!

talk about a disconnect:

"So for all the talk of getting an amazing deal, I'm just not seeing it."

so, for the sake of argument, lets assume that this apt that you lost went for $2.2 million. not sure if i would use the word amazing, but certainly does qualify as a deal, no?

lost;
that mkt seems like 81's wheelhouse, call her on the outside for in the field data

Definitely a deal. Not one we were equipped to pay, but obviously others were ready.

There's a done of expensive crap out there right now, imo. All the ones I like are priced 400-600K too high for us. Guess I have expensive taste!

The UWS seems to be very popular with many partisans who will live nowhere else, no?

yes, drdrd, We who own the UWS have no interest in your own petty, breakaway kingdoms. Begone. You bore me.

yes, be gone druid. or come on in, the waters warm

Lost, I suffer from the same problem. All the apartments I really like are at least a million dollars more than I can afford!

Good luck, keep trying and I'm sure you'll find your place.

OK...so mjh is either a broker or an owner. Here's some real facts as opposed to your skeptical B.S.

1623 3rd ave:
04/02/2009 #35H SOLD FOR $795,000 -11.6% LAST ASKING PRICE $899,000 ↓ Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,162 ft²

172 East 90th Street
04/03/2009 #19 M $527,000 -12.0% $599,000 ↓ Sold 1 bed 1 bath 625 ft²

170 East 77th Street
04/09/2009 #10D $1,584,000 -11.8% $1,795,000 ↓ 2 beds 2 baths 1,357 ft²

333 East 79th Street
01/28/2008 #3E $1,050,000 -12.5% $1,200,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,250 ft²

...and that's just a sampling from someone who doesn't have a subscription.

So, please Mjh - you're not fooling anyone but yourself. The sooner you accept reality, the sooner you'll sell an apartment.

jg1945 - was just trying to reconcile your post on another thread a few minutes ago ("- The rare contracts that are being signed are being done at 25%-30% off list, and yet inventory continues to build") with the "real facts" above... The biggest real fact discount is 12.5%

sideliner - the 25%-30% of list is ORIGINAL/ HIGHEST list, not current list. I should have been clear on that. My apologies. As for the several examples listed above, I found those in about 5 minutes randomly without a subscription. If you have a subscription, and do a search for recent sales, I'm sure you'll find some with much larger discounts off of CURRENT list.

Highest List Prices:
1623 3rd Ave 35H $1,025,000 Reduction: 22.4%
170 E 77th 10D $2,035,000 Reduction: 17.2%
333 East 79th Street 3E $1,200,000 Reduction** 12.5% (but that sold in June 2008)

So, not quite 25-30%, but that's a very quick random sample. I suspect that if you look at all sales in the month April (there shouldn't be many), the average reduction from original list will likely be in the 25%+ range. If not, I guess there's still even more downside in the market than even I suspected.

Thanks for pointing that out.

One of my favorites
812 Park Ave 5/6C

STREETEASY HISTORY
12/03/2007
Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's at $12,000,000.
01/29/2008
Price decreased by 8% to $11,000,000.
02/26/2008
Price decreased by 5% to $10,500,000.
04/14/2008
Price decreased by 14% to $9,000,000.
11/18/2008
Price decreased by 6% to $8,500,000.
01/11/2009
Price decreased by 12% to $7,500,000.
03/05/2009
Price decreased by 13% to $6,500,000.
03/13/2009
Listing entered contract.
04/23/2009
Listing is no longer available.

closed for $5,000,000
58% of original list
another 23% of last list
now that is sexy!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/346071-coop-320-west-86th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

This is also a good one which has come up in other threads: 320 W 86th
Listed for $1.2, no price chops, sold for $900mm (25% off)

mpaltrow -- any idea of the size of 320 W 86th?

812 is the king of the OOFs.

this is another great one.
860 Park ave 5th floor

STREETEASY HISTORY
05/02/2007
Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $13,400,000.
07/14/2007
Listing entered contract.
11/20/2007
Re-listed by Brown Harris Stevens.
02/27/2008
Price decreased by 5% to $12,750,000.
03/09/2008
Price decreased by 6% to $11,950,000.
05/24/2008
Price decreased by 8% to $10,995,000.
07/21/2008
Listing is no longer available.

then change broker to Corcoran
list for $9,500,000
then close for $7,000,000

47% drop from original list
26% below last list
nice!

> streeteasy threads said 50% off, then everything should be 50% off! I can't believe it.

They also said there would be no crash. Can't remember exactly who that was...

I just gave you two primetime 50% off deals. I guess whoever said 50% was right.

First of all I am not an owner or a broker, I sold an apt a year ago and now looking to buy something. That was actually the plan all along but have not been able to find something in the right price range. Second of all I hardly every write anyting on here because people become so combative so quickly, so suspicious and accusatory--stop, its silly.

I honestly lost several apts that I put reasoanble bids on and just wanted to see if other people were having the same experience. To those of you who answered honestly, appreciate the feedback. I know there are certain neighborhoods, like The Financial District, Jersey City, Willimasburg that are dropping a lot, but I really think that nice apts that are fairly priced in good neighborhoods (not that those are not before people start yelling at me) are only selling for 10% below asking. Of course the most important question is, what will they be selling for a year from now and will interest rates be as attractive as they currenlty are. I suppose only time will tell.

I think it has been posted many times. It is not a matter of 0.9xX, it is a matter of X's definition as it compares to current market value.

actually I agree with you. have bids out. surprised that some 15% lowers are not being bitten at. I am spreading out a bunch of lowball bids and seeing if any takers.. to be honest, only three bids are out, and pretty close on one of them. may get acceptance tomorrow.. market is poised for big dumpoff though I am sensing:

the dumpoff includes recent dropped or released new developments. I am "new" listing hunter as most of us are on this site... so I may not be only one seeing full blocs of apts entering market in shotgun fashion.

1. 75 wall street
2. 56 leonard st
3. hudson hill condo
4. 200 east 66t
5. 250 east 49th

Actually, this has also happened to me. Ask=$1,295,000 My offer=$1,250,000 Counter offer=$1,295,000 not budging.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/345567-condop-1175-york-avenue-lenox-hill-new-york
Final sale price was $1,250,000
So, what happened? The agent was looking to make a deal without a split and my agent(at that time) was a crazy, well...you fill in the rest. Made another offer that was about 10% less ask on a property on EEA. Also no counter, just insistance on the ask. There might be super-duper deals out there with folks scooping up those low bids but, even given my diligence I have yet to find them. I'm not talking listed price drops, I'm talking negotiating. I think that some more time must pass before we see some real softness in the 2-3 br. apartments that are listed under 2M. The market for 2m+ seems to behaving differently. I see all those great comps and price choppers but, they are mostly in the $ range that the little fish(such as myself) can not touch.

Last few weeks, I made 3 offers anywhere from 10-15% off list price. 2 of them had already reduced their prices.

My price range is $600,000 to $800,000. One didn't even bother to counter so I called the broker and was told they had a accepted a higher offer.

One other stood firm at his asking price so I let it go. The third one countered but during my negotiations with the buyer, another open house was done and supposedly they got a higher offer.

Either these brokers are full of it or something is amiss in this market.

Many brokers use their first offer as a motivating factor to potential buyers. looks like whats happened here

No way around this I guess...

falcogold -- Things are similar on UWS in the under 2M picture. If the listing price takes into account the current market, and asks 1.295 for an apt that would have been 1.6 a year ago, they're probably not going to accept more than 8-10% below ask. If they're desperate to sell it's a different story, but that's what I've observed in the past few months.

Mjh1962, can you recommend a good broker? You know, if you happen to know one off the top of your head.

Not all list prices are the same. Some are already more discounted than others. Blanket rules that things are trading x% below current list prices are just silly. Certain price points are better than others. Certain neighborhoods, etc.

> "If the listing price takes into account the current market"

but what does that mean? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Something 5% below an original 2008 listing might be "priced for the current market".

This also happened to me on a few occasions. Recently put offer in at about 11% below current ask, which is about 4% below where it started. Not even a counter, just a "take it or leave it."...so much for the world crashing I suppose. Once again NYC proves that the supply simply cannot keep up with demand no matter how bad things may seem. So I continue to rent and prepare to move to the 'burbs with the rest of the regular people.

My own experience says that if you feel that an apartment is priced fairly, it will sell and get offers close to asking price.

I tried at 20% below ask for an 1.5M ask, 3bed room in UWS (85th). I felt that if I could get it for 1.2-1.3 it would be a great deal. Nope. They got two offers close to ask price and they are heading to contract.

In UES, I made an offer for 1.1M for a 1.5M ask, believing that still 1.1M was too much for that 3bedroom. They rejected it, as a lowball. It is still in the market and recently slashed the price to 1.15M now. It may sell for around 1.05M.

Again, see the apartment and compare. Good apartments that are well priced get close to ask. Not so good, need heavy discounts at this point to sell.

Crescent -- Yes, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but when an apartment in good condition asks 20% below what the exact same apt sold for a year ago on a lower floor, then the seller/broker is definitely pricing for the current market. Having made such a concession at the outset, they're not going to be lowballed into going another 15% or more below the ask -- unless they're desperate. I know I'm just stating the obvious here, but I'm surprised at how many posters on this board seem to think that if you're not getting 20-50% below ask in this market you're a sucker.

Here's what I keep thinking if I see an apt that I love and know I'm going to be happy coming home to everyday and am comfortable with what I'm paying monthly, I'm going for it--its the place you put your head down every night--not your stock portfolio. One is for making money, the other for making you happy!!!

I see it occuring in the $500K-$1 millon range. I think there is a bigger discount on more expensive apts, but that is from what I'm reading not experience

Didn't front_porch say she thought a contracted deal is only 50/50 of going through now? I'd stay on those deals esp. given the chance some buyers might not be able to get mortgages.

Mjh1962: please realize that everyone else in the world isn't as brain dead as brokers. This ploy of yours is painfully transparent. Please stop it. Even better, stop it, quit your job, get a GED and start working at the GAP. You'll feel better about yourself and make a better commission than if you keep working as a broker.

I am definitely not a broker. Have bid on 4 apartments in the past year and a half, anywhere from 7% to 30% off of ask. Obviously, none were accepted because I am still searching on Streeteasy. I have not made any bids lately, however. My broker seems to be losing interest, doesn't even send me any listings anymore. And I am a cash buyer!

P09: Thanks for the shout-out. I haven't paid much attention to the relationship between final ask and closing price. Brokers play so many games with asking prices that the noise might drown out the melody. When I have some time, I might look for correlations or trends related to the final asking price (adjusted, perhaps, for the value predicted by comps). That research just hasn't been a priority. The asking price is interesting when a property is on the market - especially when it drops below the value predicted by prior-sale comps and market trends. Once a property sells, I think it's more useful to study the relationship between closing price and comps.

Lostintransit: The 315 W106 sale is a notable data point - probably a "print on the way down", as P09 calls it; time will tell. I think the key there was competitive positioning. The brokers found a hole in the market - UWS 8-room @ $2MM - and cut the price to where that apartment became a clear value leader at that moment. That cut generated a ton of interest - enough to produce a contract above asking, even if most potential buyers were disappointed by the views and the condition of the bedroom wing.

Mjh1962: You answered your own question last night, when you wrote:

"I really think that nice apts that are fairly priced in good neighborhoods... are only selling for 10% below asking."

By definition, apartments that are "fairly priced" are the ones that sell close to asking. That's what it means to be fairly priced. If you limit the sample that way, it's impossible for any apartment in your universe to sell at a significant discount to the ask; any listing that closes far below the asking price is immediately purged from the sample, because it wasn't "fairly priced."

Whether or not Mjh1962 is a broker (I have to admit I thought so, too), I think this thread touches on the mixed market we're seeing. In Case A, as addressed anecdotally by lostintransit & mjh1962 among others, desirable apartments are selling near their reasonable asking prices. In Case B, less desirable apartments, reasonably priced, are selling below their asking prices. And in Case C, undesirable apartments, unreasonably priced, are not selling. I'm with West81st on this one (as ever!) - monitoring the discount off asking price is fun, but it's immaterial compared to the numbers that really matter - the closed sale prices.

If you are really looking for property to buy and hold and live in - I'm talking to you, NYRENewbie - keep holding out for the best apartment in your price range. Keep bidding what you can afford/are willing to pay whatever the asking price. Don't let serial rejection get you down. I have a buyer who saw a ton of listings - but we kept circling back to one great building. We saw some okay apartments there in his price range, but felt if we waited we could get a real prize. And a unit priced at close to $900K a year ago dropped to below $750K, we felt confident putting in an offer at 10% below. We came up a bit, but it's still by far the best place we saw in his range, and in the best building. It's like hunting - know what you are looking for, be patient and vigilant as you wait for it to come to market, and then pursue it aggressively when it shows itself.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

Another one:
588 Henry Street #4 in Carroll Gardens
2 beds, 1 bath
StreetEasy History
10/09/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $595,000.
10/31/2008 Price decreased by 4% to $569,000.
11/21/2008 Price decreased by 17% to $475,000.
01/11/2009 Listing entered contract.
02/13/2009 Listing sold.
02/13/2009 Sale recorded for $410,000.

And another one
19 Grace Court #2D in Brooklyn Heights
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/326504-coop-19-grace-court-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
StreetEasy History
07/23/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Corcoran at $799,000.
08/21/2008 Delisted temporarily.
09/02/2008 Re-listed by Corcoran.
09/17/2008 Price decreased by 13% to $699,000.
09/25/2008 Price decreased by 14% to $599,000.
10/30/2008 Price decreased by 8% to $549,000.
11/26/2008 Delisted temporarily.
02/05/2009 Listing sold.
02/05/2009 Sale recorded for $505,000.

tina24hour:
"Don't let serial rejection get you down."
I like that a bunch. Reminds me of high school sex, the more rejections you get, the closer you are to a yes, it is a numbers game after all! And think of the psychological damage you are inflicting on every owner and agent that rejects you. They walk away doubting themselves, "wow, am I really pricing the unit so wrong?", "do I have ANY clue what I'm doing as an agent?", "Do I understand the market at all?", "Did I just let my owners last chance at a great sale walk away?" "Not to mention my only chance at a commission this year"

And:
88 Wyckoff Street in Cobble Hill, 2,300 ft², 2 beds, 2 baths, 1 half bath:

11/18/2008 Listed in StreetEasy by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,100,000.
01/01/2009 Listing entered contract.
02/06/2009 Listing sold.
02/06/2009 Sale recorded for $995,000.

Oh, the bidding wars!

patient09: I wouldn't worry about the psychological damage. Every sale is unique, and most sellers have a number they must hit to go through with the sale. (I think people overestimate the amount of control a broker has over the asking price.) Rarely are they shaken by low bids. They will reject them outright, and dismiss the bidders as greedy opportunists, or they will engage them to see if they can get them up to the magic number. But most sellers, even the most "realistic" ones, won't take lowballers seriously unless they have to.

It's less like high school sex (which people can do in private with whomever they like) than like asking someone to the prom - the pretty girl would rather not go at all than be seen dancing with a complete doofus. Your job is to find the pretty girl who will say yes anyway. But it will be for her own desperate reasons, not because of anything you did to deserve it.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

tina24hour:
I think you have encapsulated the entire market quite nicely with your following statement...

"Rarely are they shaken by low bids. They will reject them outright, and dismiss the bidders as greedy opportunists, or they will engage them to see if they can get them up to the magic number. But most sellers, even the most "realistic" ones, won't take lowballers seriously unless they have to."

To a buyer I think the following encapsulates quite nicely...

"Rarely are they shaken by high asks. They will reject them outright, and ignore the owners as greedy opportunists, or they will engage them to see if they can get them to wake up to current market conditions. But most buyers, even the most "aggressive" ones, won't take high asks seriously unless they have to."

P09/T24: Great posts.

P09: I would just add that most buyers have a magic number too, or at least a magic range. It might vary a little for different apartments, but we all have a comfort zone. If a seller won't/can't come down to my comfort zone, there's no deal. And I think I speak for most buyers in saying that my comfort zone is both much lower and much less elastic than it was a year ago.

i also think this kind of good economic news firms up the seller's number but doesn't necessarily do the same for the buyer thereby potentially creating a larger gap as we move forward.

Also, the magic numbers, for both sellers and buyers, are moving targets. Sellers realize they have been stubborn, feel afraid, are challenged by same-line apts that get listed lower. Buyers keep their range (because there isn't any money growing in trees) but get more ambitious than they were, say, 4 months ago. That's my case. My resources are limited, but every day I become more convinced that I'll eventually get something quite good in exchange for them, even if that means waiting until Q3 2010

tromp:

Are you suggesting I change my handle from Patient09 to Patient10. Wow, I was hoping I might find something nice and fair this fall

You may find the gap between buyers' and sellers' magic numbers will close by 2010, but that doesn't mean you should wait. Keep an eye out for the places that meet your criteria, and keep bidding your number. I'm not saying you'll get it, but there is no reason to wait until prices in general come down. Your price is your price. I bet someone will surprise you and take it - now, in the Fall, next year, who knows.

As a broker, I keep an eye out for signs of a deal waiting to happen. One obvious example is the well-positioned, well-priced listing. You know, the one that says "this sale has been saved by 18 users." But there are other signs as well, and over time you develop a kind of Spidey Sense about them. I also believe in being openly warm when showing your interest. If your number is fairly firm, sincere flattery can close the gap. A seller likes to know that you would pay more if you could, but sadly you can only do X. I know this approach has been debunked in the "how to negotiate" threads here, but I've rarely had it fail.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

"If your number is fairly firm, sincere flattery can close the gap. A seller likes to know that you would pay more if you could, but sadly you can only do X."

cannot let this nonsense pass....money talks and in this market any poor mouthing will scare the hell out of the seller thinking that you would be able to close. wouldn't go near this....nothing wrong with praising the property, but keep it business like as regards the financials. maybe this nonsense works at a flea market but with a multi million dollar purchase/investment, you've really gotta be kidding.

I am not kidding. I'm not sure what "poor mouthing" is, but being firm in your number doesn't scare anyone. Of course you must be able to afford the purchase and pass the co-op board if necessary. You may well demonstrate in your financial statement that you are able to afford more than your offer indicates. But if you indicate that you are lowballing because you think the apartment isn't worth what the seller thinks it's worth, and another qualified buyer comes along and offers $5000 less than your offer but "wishes" he/she could pay more, don't be surprised if the seller picks the other buyer instead.

This is not just human nature, it's a business decision as well. If I believe a buyer will do everything possible to get the deal done, it may be worth $5000 to me - particularly if I think the other buyer is going to be a pain every step of the way, and then possibly walk away after weeks of contract negotiations when they find something else.

That said, lots of people will take the extra $5K. But if your number is your number, you don't have that to give anyway. Andrew McCarthy gets the girl. C'est la vie.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

excuse me: what does "A seller likes to know that you would pay more if you could, but sadly you can only do X." mean other than that you don't have the money to pay more? that is what "poor mouthing" is. oh, woe is me, i wish i had more to pay you because it's certainly worth more, but i don't have the money. you said it, not me.

Got it. I thought you were meant denigrating the property, not one's own situation.
But yeah, that's what I'm saying. With most of my clients, the "number" actually represents the most they can afford, so they are not downplaying their assets. And I'm not talking about Park Avenue co-op boards. But I don't think that's what patient09 is talking about either.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

I totally totally swear I'm not a broker--I would reveal my secret identity and give you all my cell number to check, but that would just not be a wise decision would it :)

Good luck to all who are buying, thinking about buying, happy renting, or not sure what to do at all

Btw Slope11217, I'm a high school and college grad and the only thing I do at the Gap is shop

Patient - yes.

We are keeping an eye on the market in 2009, and will buy if we see the something we love at a price we love, but will likelier buy in 2010 or even early 2011. Would probably wait even longer if buying were a purely economic decision (I am very bearish on US and NYC), but with a long enough time horizon and the ability to comfortably afford something we really like, we'll probably run out of patience and say "
screw it" a bit earlier than we should.

I suppose I should change my handle to Eventualbuyer99.

What tends to happen in markets like the one we have now is that the "best" apartments queue up with the best of the best at the front. All the good buyers (and remember, all you need is 2 to have "real interest") go chasing after the first one in the queue (the pretty one, the low priced one, whatever) and that one goes. then the next one in the queue becomes the focus of all the interest. And you have the few 'real' buyers chasing the same apartments around, and it makes it seem as if the market is better than it is, because it makes for great anecdotes. But that's the problem with anecdotes: you hear about some apartment that cam one th market and was in prefect shape and well priced and went quickly: but you don't hear about the 25 that aren't in this queue and getting NO interest. Remember, volume isn't ZERO so there are SOME things selling but if 5 % of the apartments are selling in one day one the market and 95% are sitting around for months and months with now interest, that's not THE MARKET getting better. It's just a sing that there are still some buyers out there. And there always will be, just like you have buyers buying stock all the way down (hey for each transaction, there's got to be a buyer AND a seller).

paying too much attention to anecdotes is a really great way of getting fooled into thinking a market is doing something other than is really is doing.

Listen all...Manhattan is On Sale, just like every place else in the USA.
But you cannot expect a large discount on an already discounted price.
You can expect a little room to negotiate but that's about it.
It is up to you, as the buyer to understand the true market and what a realistic price is for the apt.
What would you accept, in today's market, if you were the owner?
At a certain point, I would, as a broker, advise an owner not to go any lower unless they HAD to sell.
In Manhattan, there are not many who HAVE TO.

Hey, I got a great deal for you. Just pay the closing costs and it's yours. Or do want to negotiate that as well???

It is up to you, the buyer, to understand the fact that this is an asset that is declining in value over time.

What would you accept, in tomorrow's market, if you were unemployed and needed to sell?

Unless you have to sell, don't bother, would be my advice. Or expect lowball bids.

Plenty of people in NYC have to sell. I was here in the early 1990s and saw people dumping apartments (particularly on the market) just to get out from under their payments, because they had to move--for jobs, for schools, for more room.

Not sure what the doom and gloom is all about. 500-600 apts per month have been trading for several months now. Seems pretty good considering the economic situation of NYC. It also seems that most apts that are trading are doing deals at pretty good prices for the sellers. Many would call it 15-30% off peak, call it 2004-2006 pricing. Seems pretty good and liquid to me. Additionally, I havn't heard of any apts trading at levels that would be called "cheap" on a rent vs buy calculation. Seems like sellers are still the winners.

when supply and demand are roughly in equalibrium, inventory remains constant.. the method for supply and demand to reach equalibrium is price. the ever rising inventory number seems to indicate that we have not reached equalibrium so many are making the assumption that prices have to come done even more. the question is how much; and the answer is unknowable. all of this creates yet more uncertainty which continues to be a drag on the functioning of the market. plus, it also seems that there is a pretty significant difference in transaction volume based on price ranges.

I'm going to bet that available inventory will go down at the end of the 2nd Quarter in 2009 for properties under $1 million dollar (my price range). When I say available inventory, I am excluding signed contracts. This is contrary to Urban Digs's prediction who thinks that most of all the buyer activity is just a lot of side liners looking around and not really signing contracts.

I'm also going to bet that this summer won't be a "bloodbath" that some posters have stated it will be. In fact, I am going out on a limb and predict a busy summer for properties less than $1 million.

Any takers?

what about properties above $1 million?

CC - I'm not touching that price range but my guess is the inventory for $1 million plus properties will continue upward.

if you turn out to be right, it will provide an interesting statistic in terms of average price of a sold property---i imagine the number would drop enormously. almost a worse PR situation that overall transaction volume going down.

In this low-interest rate environment good properties will retain reasonable value unless owners are desperate to sell. Lots of money out there. While softness is evident, I've yet to see a reasonably priced quality apartment in a good neighborhood go for fire sale prices.

"In fact, I am going out on a limb and predict a busy summer for properties less than $1 million. "

And all the sellers are either going to leave NY or become renters? Or what else are they going to do besides those 2 options? Or are all these properties vacant/sublet?

anon10 I think you're right. I think there will be a dead cat bounce in the under $1M market this summer, and that those buyers may be underwater by the following spring.