Which year's price?

It's not fair to assume. But you might.

chuckL, that wasn't very helpful, sorry. I think you need to try to figure out what comps are going for in your target neighborhood (extremely difficult, a moving target, and not all at that same year for the different neighborhoods). Then it would be arguable that you should apply a risk factor of a certain percentage for buying in a downward market, with the risk factor being higher depending on whether the location was emerging, or the property was a bit challenged, which might have been overlooked at the top of the market.

take your time. those 11,000 units (and counting) aren't flying into contract. you don't need to buy at the bottom, and although I've heard there may be some upward pressure on interest rates, I don't think they'll overcome the declines in value. and then you can refinance later. good luck.

ChuckL - you can take a look at the SE comps thread(s) for the neighborhood(s) where you want to buy. Now that these have been going a few months, there is a fair amount of actual trade data. You can draw your own conclusions about what year to target, but it seems that across neighborhoods there are a lot of 2005 price points. I do think that there is a strong tendency for posters (myself included) to find and post the comps that show the most downward movement; 2005's are popular and anything that hints at earlier years tends to draw oohs and aahs. A 'down 5% from 2007' comp might not be interesting enough to see the light of day, so there may be some selection bias in the data set. Again, you'll have to draw your own conclusions.

thanks for the clarification
another newbie question
from what i've gathered , closings are on decline. hence my transactional comps will be limited
how do i figure out the so called "fair value" if the owners are likely to list at a higher price to preamp a low bid?

thanks sidelinesitter, ill take a look at that thread.

Here's an example. The titles of the threads are all the same save for the neighborhood.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7617-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-east-side-edition

Go 10% below 2005 at most.

Even barbara corcoran is telling folks who bought in 2005 to expect to not break even...

I am looking at a unit that is listed now at 1.95 but in 4/2007 closed at 1.890 what bid would you suggest?

This is not too helpful (way too broad), but at a generic 30% off from peak assumption, and with 4/2007 being somewhere in the general vicinity of the peak, you might go $1.35mm and see if seller even wants to counter.

Have you looked for comps in the building other than the last sale of the unit in question? If someone just paid $1.75mm in the same line a couple of floors up or down, your seller isn't going to find 30% below 2007 to be a very amusing concept (in which case you could consider waiting until the listing seasons a bit more and seller's resolve weakens - at $1.95mm you can assume it isn't going anywhere in the meantime).

Sorry,only 20 unit coop and there have been no others sold that is listed on streeteasy.No doorman,electronic entry,some private outdoor space.It is in the village.

Tough one. My sense from the downtown comps thread is that there aren't a lot of clean '2005 pricing' or 'down 30% from peak' comps in the village (unlike several other neighborhoods), but others can offer better insight. I don't imagine that the seller is going to be too interested in being the guinea pig in applying 2009 pricing, whatever you think that means in the village, to their building. I stick to the prediction that patience is your friend, though.

sidelinesitter is right. downtown is the toughest to comp, has had the stickiest prices (not including FiDi or BPC in that, don't really follow those so I don't know). give yourself some time. if it's so difficult to tell, you'll do much better and have more negotiating power later (unless you think you've found the deal of the decade, and that would be apparent only if you've been following the market for some time, or possibly if happyrenter, west81st, etc. announced it on the price choppers thread).

The latest national data say,'Q3-2003'.
Does this apply to manhattan? So far...no. Best I can tell from limited research, and I'm being loose about it, is Q2-3 2005. This is the about the current mind set of the island. If we are laggards we should be at 2003$$$ in about 9-12 months. Keep in mind that I am checking my data against a cyrstal ball and a bag of native american shells, feathers and turtle pooh.

It would be very convenient if we could just look at old prices and create a year-equivalent compare, but it isn't that easy- sellers may have put money into an apt., they may be overpricing on purpose to counteract people thinking this way, this change on streets like 2nd Ave in the Upper East where appearance of construction must be affecting prices.

While your bid should be affected a little by the seller's ask, your appraisal of a true fair value for an apt should not be. I think you just have to have your own sense by visiting open houses of what a certain size apt in certain condition in a certain neighborhood is worth. For example, it seems clear that decent-condition Yorkville 2 BRs are asking about 800/sf now and thus may clear in the low 700s. That is a better way to value than using unclear comps from 3-4 years ago.

Understood,so just as a guide what would a well renovated loft in Greenwich village,West Village and Chelsea go for psf,if there are no comps to compare from 2005.

Also keep in mind whether you're pricing psf with the real square footage or the advertised one, because there is usually a 20% difference there.

You still need apples to apples. Sure you can get a felling for worth/value but, a little homework never hurt. Knowing what an apartment in a line sold for in 2005 might be valuable in honing in on a 'top' bid. Considering the ease of use of public records, why would you not avail yourself of this information. There is still to much wishful thinking out there...on both sides of the equation.