Price Per Square Foot - stats

here's the problem...none of the square feet measurements are standardized and can vary by as much as 25% but short of getting out your own ruler, there's no way to know which is which.

since so many listing exaggerate the square footage, there is no way to honestly come about these stats. you have to look at comps.

it's also just way too broad. you can get a sense of what the 1100 sf cookie cutter UES apartment looks like. they seemed to have shared building plans, certain types of floorplans are very easy to spot. but that will be priced much differently psf in the same neighborhood than a pre-war classic 6 in a good building, which is also technically a two bedroom.

here's an example of why this doesn't work:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/405570-condo-112-west-18th-street-chelsea-new-york
this listing claims 1900 square feet so you could say it is now under 1000 per square foot.
do a little checking and you can see that the current broker used to own this apartment himself and when he sold it in 2004 to the people who own it now he listed the square footage as 1745:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/20335
if a broker who owned the apartment himself can't be honest about the square footage how do you expect anyone else to?

Good points. So the better question would be which area/neighborhood will stand up better in a downturn? Overall value and future prospects? I see so much overbuilding in areas such as Chelsea and UES that it seems unlikely that asset values will not fall considerably in those areas.

people on here seem to say uws, lower 5th avenue, west village and to some extent tribeca but only the prime area

i would say possibly East Village, also, depending on how devastated retail/restaurants are. only because it's very popular and the product available is so limited.

but the much larger variable than neighborhood is the particular unit that you purchase and for what price.

you would think that the uws would hold up well - but samuel miller indicates that te uws has a huge inventory backlog - much greater than other manhattan segments - and noe of the inventory info includes the shadow backlog of condos coming online that are not yet being marketed - that said, uws will likely hold up well

Shame on you, shame on you previous posters. We claim to be the glimmers of hope, the fighters for truth and honesty and all that is good in this world. Like little girls before they become bitchy teenagers. We will not surrender to "I don't know the sqft so I won't comment." Get the fuck out, step up, put a number on it.

UES...Park Ave and west of, 3beds, 2.5 baths or more 2000sqft or more doorman, all the bells and whistles. listings $1,400-$1,900...trades have occured $1,400-$1,600. offers starting to come in south of $1,400. My best guess, really nice stuff will print $1,200-$1,400 real soon. 2nd tier stuff will trade close to $1,000.

Good example follow 22 e 88 4 listings, 1 in contract.

hope that helps BargainHunter. Stay strong, the force is very strong.

Thanks patient09. I'm looking at a number of 3 beds in Chelsea/Highline area, Far West Midtown (on 10th and 11th) and East Side near Murray Hill. Most of them are new developments ranging 1775-2000 SF, but unfortunately low floors since the higher ones are well out of my range. What do you think would be fair? They all face the back of other buildings on one side, the street on the other. I'm trying to figure out where to put in a bid that would result in a good deal. The asking prices are $1250-$1450 psf which I think is pretty high given the inventory on the market.

The new developments are throwing in closing costs. The owner sellers on older stuff aren't. How much should I factor in for paying closing? Thanks for your post!!!!

Sorry, don't shop in those hoods. Hey my numbers could be completely wrong, its just what I see in the field.
surprised some others won't throw out some numbers, no matter how wrong or right they may be.

patient09 has shamed me. but other than Chelsea, and to a much lesser extent Murray Hill, that's not my area either. and i follow central Chelsea, more flatiron, union squarish. i'll have a look and take a stab at it. it's really not that hard to analyze sf prices, with some practice, but obviously you need to ignore the broker's number usually. and you have to compare apples to apples.

i wouldn't touch most new development right now under almost any circumstance. BargainHunter, help me out here. are these established developments, mostly sold or resales? or are they still being built. huge difference. $1250-1450 is insane at this point for those neighborhoods, but the prices are sticky and may be difficult to push down for some time. but desperation will rear its ugly head here and there, and some will have to sell.

imo - anthing over $1000/ppsf is ridiculous in any nabe for any apartment. the problem is that these prices are 'normalized' in the psyche of NYC -- in the rest of the country almost nothing reaches these price points - not even in SF (the other high priced market)+ NY is the only place with coops and crazy maintenance.(which in other markets would really drive down the ppsf) until buyers start refusing to pay over $1000/ppsf nothing will change. realistically (although still high compared to the rest of the country)-- this is where it should be (pipe dream perhaps)

low/average apartment $ 250 -350 ppsf
Average/Mid - $350-500
high end - $500 - 800
the best of the best $800+

it's up to you what you what you want to spend - but there's no way i'd go over $1000 ppsf in far west midtown or murray hill-- you could rent a 3 bed for less alot less.

10025: you are my brother/or sister. I wasn't necessarily trying to predict where things "seem" to be headed or where "I" think they will ultimately go. But more where I currently see things. peace..

They are completed developments with available units. Two of them are remarketed units that fell out of contract (Element 3 bed, Chelsea Modern large 2 bed). Another is Indigo (3 bed, new dev, on market for long time) The other two buildings are in Murray Hill: (1)an owner resale unit, 3 bed in a building that is about 10 yrs old, but my least favorite of the bunch due to location near FDR and old finishes. (2)a 3 bed in new dev Tempo. I'm looking around to see if there are good deals to take advantage of. I'm currently renting in central Chelsea so there is no rush, just looking for opportunity. I'm not a big fan of UES so I haven't been looking actively in that hood. My kids are in school in the WV area so I'd prefer to be near the area or at least on the West side further North for convenience. I'd say the lay outs are comparable (meaning nothing strange), all have attended lobbies and live in super. I've been on the sidelines for a few years now waiting for an entry point that makes sense.

bargainhunter, will take a look and try to come up with some currect comp info and take a stab at projecting forward a bit.

stay away from Tempo. very far away.

It's NOT just that everybody's square foot is different (some brokers it's 9" x 9", others it's 11" x 11"), it's that all feet aren't equal in quality, either. Even within the same building, how much variation would you expect in $PSF between a basement studio and a penthouse 4 BR?

As far as what neighborhoods will hold up the best, always look for a combination of which one's skyrocketed the least and/or already fell the most. One of the reasons the "prime" neighborhoods usually fall less percentage wise on the way down is that they went up less percentage wise on the way up: it's a volatility issues. just like "blue chip" stocks, you expect slower but surer growth and expect more strength in times of a weak market.

One thing I would be careful about the highline area is that it's ALL new projects (or at least relatively new), with a bunch of stuff in the pipeline which might crater in a MAJOR way. If a handful of projects there leave a mushroom cloud, it will taint the entire area for quite some time. I would think the same of FiDi. one of the reasons the Central Village has retained value in the past is the lack of new construction or even potential new construction. It was true of Chelsea until a few years ago, until Chelsea virtually exploded with new units (without actually looking at numbers, I would GUESS that there were as many new units built in the last 6 years as in the 60 years prior to that.

WHAT A GOOD THREAD THIS IS (emphasis on purpose) - it's beginning to tug at the fabric of the status quo of how real estate works (or doesn't) in the city at the current moment. patient's "get the fuck out and step up" ought to be a rallying cry for all parties - buyers and sellers alike. Better information and transparency will lead to more transactions at appropriate pricing - which is the goal of all concerned.

I'm looking for pricing to get back to 2001/2002 levels. For a solid mid-range coop that would mean price-per-square-foot in the neighborhood of $500.

Expect the next couple of years to see significant declines as a surge in new construction comes on stream. And buyers are likely to hold off buying out of the fear associated with trying to catch a falling knife. (Many will also be trying to repair their broken balance sheets as well.)

The areas that rose the most (in percentage terms) during the past bull market were the fringe areas. The prime areas rose far less in percentage terms (although lots in dollar terms). I'd expect those fringe areas to have the biggest percentage drops during the (still) coming bear market. Prime will decline significantly - but less in percentage terms.

Another question to add for thought - what is a reasonable premium for each floor higher in a building, given the same apartment line? I've always wondered about this, especially at resale time the value of a higher floor. I'd assume a significantly higher premium once you clear facing buildings, but by how much?

You'll know when you've got a choice between two such apartments. It's only in new buildings that you'll see otherwise-identical apartments, so for now you could go look at increments there.

BH: you've already hit one of the most significant issues: obviously when you're hitting a "break floor" the premium is a lot more. but even when not hitting a break floor, from building to building and even line to line, the exact difference in view is too much a variable.

Although about 20 years I heard a great one from a seller on West End Avenue who was on the second floor and wanted to price his apartment higher than the one on the 12th floor. When he was asked why he thought his apartment was worth more than the one higher up, he stuck his finger in the air and exclaimed "Observers!!!".

I just posted this on a new thread but I think it makes more sense here...

So with all the take about buying vs renting, I am a seller that made the decision to get out. I have a downtown 2br / 2ba that was bought in 2006 and am close to signing a contract that, including my renovation and broker fees, will put me about 7% in the hole. Definitely consider myself very lucky to make it out without getting killed. The plan is to trace up to a 3br rental for a year or two, then make a call whether to buy again.

So now the question is whether there is a rule of thumb (similar to the $1k a foot for sales) that can be used for rentals. I'm looking mostly in the Village and want a doorman. Ideas / thoughts? Any good no fee sites is also appreciated since Craig's List seems like there are lots of sketchy characters on it...

GettingOut, congrats on the sale. it's a moving target right now, more so than sales prices even. take a look in a couple of the large new developments, even if they aren't your size and area, just to get a sense of what the new development rentals are doing to the upper level rentals. before you might have been able to say larger apartments on the UES should go for $58, and smaller whatever, but now product just isn't moving.

many apartments now wind up being no fee, so focus on the apartment first and then add the fee to the negotiation process. some conventional brokers are getting great rental listings from sellers who can no longer afford to carry the costs and must rent.

I'm working on midtown west first. Be patient, Element for example never listed many of the apartments on StreetEasy so they show up as closed sales but I can't find out when they went into contract, and I need that data so the search will take me longer.

But you should be in no hurry (the longer you take, the better, i'd think). Having said that, I'm going to keep my personal biases out of this and try to look at it as strictly an analytical process.

btw, I finally forked over the $10 a month to become an insider. let the fun begin.

BargainHunter, I'm still running through buildings, but first a few general comments. I would not consider (in the short term) any building that is not 90% closed. Even then, some of them appear to be in a potential (although possibly temporary) world of hurt. Looking at resales in new developments, I get the sense that if you eliminate outliers, $1100 psf is about the best that you can do. Your initial guess of $1250-1400 is true for most of the established buildings. You can do better in some developments that appear headed for bankruptcy, but you wouldn't want that.

Those resales that are available for around $1100 psf are still priced at around 10% (or more) over what they sold for in 2006-08. Not the trendline that you'd want to invest in. (btw, for all, I am only looking at new developments or conversions with over 1500 sf in this exercise). I am linking my search results below, although you've probably already run that.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/nyc/ppsf%3A-1500%7Csqft%3E%3D1500%7Carea%3A115%2C125%7Cbeds%3E%3D2%7Cbaths%3E%3D2%7Cnew_developments%3Ayes

In terms of discount from original listing, I pulled up a few of the 2006-08 new developments/conversions to see what was happening. So far, in Chelsea, with a few notable exceptions(ie, Chelsea Mercantile, 4 w. 20), I'm seeing around 10%, but the price psf at closing has been holding steady or even rising. That should change soon, but so far no. In Clinton, things are a bit different. I saw a couple of units at 10 WEA and Element where resales were 10% or more less than the first sale, and where discounts from initial listing were 10-15%. The Element listings weren't comps though, because they were too small, and the ones at 10WEA were still at the higher end of $1500 psf.

Bottom line, $1100 psf should get the job done now for at least some of the units within your search parameters and within my safety zone. If you want to take a risk and go in with a low bid in a less secure environment, on top of the mortgage contingency hire a very good attorney to write a contract that will cover your ass from here to Kansas. There I'd wait at least six months, still, and I wouldn't be surprised if you can't get $950-1000 psf or so.

I could be wrong, but I think that any lower you'll not see until bankruptcy in the new developments, particularly for the larger developments, and that process will take awhile to sort itself out. In a smaller building (Alchemy, for example) you may get a great deal on one of the last two or three units. For resales, we may be seeing REOs or short sales in some of these buildings soon, and that will change the game as well.

wow i had no idea you could do that kind of search. aboutready thanks!!!

jasonkyle, my pleasure. i love data. i've got a couple of very interesting statistical ideas i'm mulling over right now. could keep me busy for weeks. this probably isn't very healthy.

anyone know what average price per square foot was for a Park Avenue co-op in 2001?

talk about a totally useless figure.

but 30yrs, do you want to say why? not nice to say useless with no explanation, unless i have missed something about silentwaiter. may be relevant or of interest to someone.

I couldn't disagree more. sqft of an apt is very relevant, price is very relevant. price/sqft is just a function of the two. location is important, condition..yada,yada,yada...IT IS ALL IMPORTANT. We should all seek as much knowledge as possible.

Those who aren't square-foot obsessed don't understand those who are, and vice-versa.

anyway -- apologies if it was a less than worthy question and I'd love to know your thoughts why. The question was merely posted so I could fashion a response to a broker (regarding an apartment I won't buy) who smugly told me that Park Avenue apartments had not been priced under $1000 per square foot in more than 20 years and not to expect that they would be anytime soon.

I acknowledge all the caveats related to price-per-square foot.

That said, if that's your thing and you want to check out trends, neighborhoods, etc. by ppsf, your best bet is:

http://www.millersamuel.com/data/index.php

You can manipulate the data in all sorts of ways. As we say in my work, "torture the data until it confesses." Enjoy.

This WAS a great thread, as some pointed out! Patient 09 is hilarious, 30 yrs is wise, as usual.

I too had no idea you could run a search like that; many thanks aboutready.

Silent:

605 Park Avenue #16B
1,000 ft²
$995 per ft²

Bargainhunter,

Try this site.
It gives you the average price per square foot by zip or area in Manhattan/NYC. You can search by recent sale or sales made in a particular range of dates. Very helpful, if you want to drill further down into buildings you can use StreetEasy to access that data.

http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/New_York/New_York-heat_map/

Good luck!

710 Park: $821 PSF

1036 park: $1,395,000
2 beds 2 baths
1,450 ft², $962/ft²

I agree with this guy: jasonkyle
about 3 weeks ago
ignore this person
report abuse here's an example of why this doesn't work:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/405570-condo-112-west-18th-street-chelsea-new-york
this listing claims 1900 square feet so you could say it is now under 1000 per square foot.
do a little checking and you can see that the current broker used to own this apartment himself and when he sold it in 2004 to the people who own it now he listed the square footage as 1745:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/20335
if a broker who owned the apartment himself can't be honest about the square footage how do you expect anyone else to?

I mean, if a broker who LIVED IN the apartment isn't honest, then no one is honest. No one.

Thanks; it's all helpful

When you flip a coin, what does it come up on average?