TrueGotham.....Current Manhattan RE Environment

Yes, a broker said it! Crash is over!

Wait, weren't these the same putzes who said there was no crash?

uh, whoops.

steve, this site became a venting outlet for renters/stabbies with marginal personalities. I wonder what/who they'd rent from if nobody owns? The state? Dream on, renters.

"No spin..."

Aren't you guaranteed to get spin after anyone says that.

SteveF, really, are you dumb enough to buy this stuff? Or do you think someone else is dumb enough that you'll convince them even though you don't believe it?

Renters probably feel cool when anonymously foaming at the mouth about things they cannot control.
Oh, watch what happens now...

SteveF, really, are you dumb enough to buy this stuff? Or do you think someone else is dumb enough that you'll convince them even though you don't believe it?

nyc10022..Who's on first? No who's on second! What's on first!...:)

I shave STEVEF on my hairy back...

The circus began...

So, Steve, I'll take that as a yes...

w67th..really, I tatooed stevejhx on my forehead.

stevef :)

"steve, this site became a venting outlet for renters/stabbies with marginal personalities.

Only because the majority of morons who said "there will be no decline" for a couple years are now scared to show their faces...

Only a few funny ones in denial left, so they take the brunt of it.

Maybe he should have phrased it "no spin - just anecdotes."

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

A gold star on tina's homework.

When we have actual data right in front of us, anecdotes ARE spin...

nyc10022, AFRAID to show...? Afraid of who? I've never read a really really homeowner in Manhattan venting on this pages. Flippers - probably. You see, homeowners don't need to vent... And before you ask, yes, I'm a happy owner and recently sold a spare apt. for asking price.
I started reading this while looking for some specific service-related info, and have been getting amused by this "All on barricades!" tonality. I guess every anonymous forum eventually devolves into this strange thing...

> nyc10022, AFRAID to show...? Afraid of who?

You should ask them... except, oh, Spunky & crew never came back.

They seem to be afraid of facing the music (given that their painfully wrong predictions are well documented).

> I've never read a really really homeowner in Manhattan venting on this pages.

Then maybe you should read more than half a post. You clearly don't know much about this site.

> You see, homeowners don't need to vent...

Ha, ROTFL... best laught of the year.

They don't "need" to vent, but they surely do.

Seriously, you clearly haven't read more than a post here.

> I guess every anonymous forum eventually devolves into this strange thing...

Yes, the strange thing of owners violently trying to defend their purchases, denying market crashes when the stats are in. Strange, but true.

nyc00022 you really are a miserable, crotchety old bastitch aren't you?

You're not, perchance, planning to delight us all with this wonderful disposition of yours on the 21st are you?
That would be a treat.

divvie truth hurts..............

McHale, you obviously don't know my views on RE..............

steveF... I believe the tide is still ebbing but approaching slack. I have been dropping offers all over the place and have lost two apartments in two weeks. In my hood at my price point, something positive is happening and has been for a couple of months now. But then again maybe we're all fools.

Putting Doug's efforts aside for a moment, as he tries to honestly tell us what he sees out there, we all must understand where we came from.

We went from a market that people thought could never go down, and immune no matter what, to a period when no deals were happening and everything froze. I am talking about the 4 months or so following Lehman, 4th qtr, and JAN...Prices shot down fast, and deals started happening down 20-30% from peak depending upon price point and product quality and other variables that affect affordability/demand. Then, action started picking up again and deals starting happening more frequently at these levels - a stabilization in the down turn of prices.

One mans business is not the entire market. Not me, not Doug, not Jacky T! people tend to mis interpret these updates to mean all is well again, prices are on their way up again, and to get back in before its too late. At least that is my take of interpretations of these kinds of real time reports. Doug is telling us what he is seeing because you cant get that info anywhere else, so he is trying to tell us all what is happening real time. But in no way should that equate to a prediction that all is well again and prices have bottomed.

As Doug points out, and I dedicated an entire post to this fact - Year-over-Year, sales volume is the most sluggish in the past 10 years! but month to month, the market is improving? Why, because the market came from a complete standstill!

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/05/why_broker_uptick_reports_are.html

Data can be presented in many ways, so just make sure not to mis-interpret a real time update. I disagree with Doug that a stabilization in inventory may mean the imminent stabilization of prices. Even if we stay at these levels, if sales volume gets illiquid again, we may see a combination of units in contract leaving the inventory sellers remving listings for summer or deciding not to sell after not getting their price, bring inventory down a tad, yet prices still fall in another wave. Its all about sales volume. If we get another period like the 4th quarter, if someone MUST sell, well, they will be forced to aggressively price or hit a bid! You better hope that bid is not too low!

Remember, y-o-y, Doug is spot on. Volume is way way down, most in 10 years, and prices are down considerably! Hardly an environment to call a bottom or a recovery out of. Yet month to month observations can allow one to do so - so its a matter of what you believe!

FYI - I have 2 contracts signed in past few weeks, I have 2 offers accepted now with contracts out, and I lost a few high end deals because my clients bid about 5% below where I advised the property should trade with the hopes of pricing in a bit of downturn risk. Those units went into contract.

So why dont I blog about this? Well, for one, this is my slowest start to a year in 4 years - so saying I am busy is very misleading. Activity is picking up, but only from very very slow levels, so I have to use caution in interpreting it as a sustainable pickup. And finally, because deals are happening right where I stated this market seems to be trading per price point! I dont see any bids coming in higher than those levels, or any rise in confidence amongst my buyers. Even with this pickup, inventory is still at high levels and up about 40% in 12 months time. What happens if this market gets illiquid again or stocks have another wave down adding to negative wealth effect?

spinnaker maybe we are all fools.....:) thx for the info.

Noah adding reason and corralling the disaffected youth on SE once again. Anecdotes are what they are - for every seller getting multiple bids, there is a seller who bought at peak, lost their job, and took a 20% hit because they had to unload (which is probably better than their retirement portfolio did!).

For those of us who have an interest in the RE business, it is good to get any/all real-time information possible.

Seriously, guys/gals like nyc10022 and west67, does it always have to devolve into bickering and name-calling?

Noah, great post. I'm not sure why anyone would get on Doug over his blog - it's inconsequential in terms of what the market will do, but it is interesting reading to get a small view of what's going on out there. Nothing more, nothing less.

"are now scared to show their faces..."

nyc10022, this is an anonymous internet message board, right? How can anyone be "afraid" here? I think you take way too much credit - people stop posting for many reasons (work, kids, diminished interest, being tired of needlessly antagonistic posters such as yourself, etc.). I don't think fear or shame make the list, unless the internet is your only social playing field. I hope that isn't the case for anyone.

divvie, amen.

thanks and agreed...at least I know I can trust what Doug is saying on his blog...he doesnt try to predict the market or get hot and heavy in macro, the guy is working full time and has a very successfull business, and is telling us what he sees. More brokers could try, but they wouldnt have the credibility for a while - thats something that has to be earned over time. I wish more brokers would start.

Noah, yes the market is improving from pathetic sales volume. But the 'improving" part is the important part. Most buyers halted b/c of fear. That explains the 75% drop in sales volume. That can be the only reason. The only other reason is 3 out of 4 people decided, in a month, that they were leaving Manhattan, that is absurd. So the "improvement" means buyers coming back. Alot of buyers I might add. Bringing Manhattan back to normal sales volume.

steveF, I know you are a bull, but let me ask you: how much importance do you place on the 38% stock market runup in the last 9 weeks in regards to sparking renewed interest in possibly buying a Manhattan property?

steveF, my ever-cheerful pen pal, this is, probably, close to "normal" spring sales volume. normal for 2003.

UD, alot of importance b/c it's all about perception to people aka "has the worst past" Most people don't have a clue about how the economy works so they rely on the Dow Industrials and the media. I think buyers are stirring right now as their anxiety about "missing their opportunity" builds. However, I do feel that most buyers are still anxiously waiting for the all clear before they pull b/c they can. As opposed to some sellers who just cannot (3Ds).

that is exactly why I dont believe in the sustainability of it! Because its rooted from this bear rally. Take that away, everything changes. All it did was spark foot traffic, and spark deals after a period of comeplete illiquidity that brought a wave down. Thats it. Your in the spark now. Trust me, if stocks fall 20% in another wave down to near its lows, you will see how dead it gets it out there again. You cant build a bottom in prices, after such a runup on such powerful macro/credit forces, when the entire world has just changed in terms of credit.

Are you for real? Do you truly believe that , right now, people are "anxious" to "miss the opportunity"?
On the contrary, i see renters and sideliners as the most happy people in the world... The only strees they deal with is to figure out if they'll still have a job tomorrow.

strees=stress

"Seriously, guys/gals like nyc10022 and west67, does it always have to devolve into bickering and name-calling? "

When guys like SteveF are around aming to deceive and actually going off on a very honest guy like oah (remember the post from 2 weeks ago), of course it will.

Denial/fear/whatever you want to call it is here for folks like SteveF, and many have gotten very bitter and are acting out.

"Do you truly believe that , right now, people are "anxious" to "miss the opportunity"?"

Whether he believes it or not isn;t really important anymore... he's been saying it for a YEAR. I kid you not. He talked about a stampede that was supposed to happen 12 months ago on the bounce.

"that is exactly why I dont believe in the sustainability of it! Because its rooted from this bear rally. Take that away, everything changes. All it did was spark foot traffic, and spark deals after a period of comeplete illiquidity that brought a wave down. Thats it. Your in the spark now. Trust me, if stocks fall 20% in another wave down to near its lows, you will see how dead it gets it out there again. You cant build a bottom in prices, after such a runup on such powerful macro/credit forces, when the entire world has just changed in terms of credit. "

Noah, even pretend the rally is permanent.... its still silly.

I find it funny that a number of RE bulls, who tried to completely distance themselves from the stock market for years, saying how it was uncorrelated, are suddenly trying to hitch themselves to that star. Clearly, it takes a complete lack of understanding of the market movements in stock and RE to make that connection.

"Seriously, guys/gals like nyc10022 and west67, does it always have to devolve into bickering and name-calling? "

Why aren't you asking the person who started the bickering and name calling, btw?

You clearly have some bitter folks around here, but a little nutty to go after the folks who are their targets...

nyc...Do you truly believe that , right now, people are "anxious" to "miss the opportunity

sure do...just like you bears are here 24/7. Watching and hoping.

sledge..let's get real, most people are not happy renting. it's not that prestigious remember?

Noah, i'm busy at the moment but i'd like to continue...

steve, do not lump all bears together. i'm not hoping for destruction. i'm incredibly distressed on many levels. but i did not create the bubble, and my understanding the ramifications of it bursting has no effect on said bursting. i'm just here for the ride, happy i didn't buy in 2005-08.

Well said, AR.

SteveF has talked about these sideliners ready to jump and buy for a year. He literally said "stampede" was coming last March (yeah, the one a year ago). Its the last refuge of hope of someone caught in the biggest RE crash of all time.

It was a load of crap then, its more of a load now.... more people jumping out of this market than ever, and Zillow saying 35% of americans who WANT to leave the real estate market but are waiting until prices rise (meaning they won't).

Well - here we go - here comes the market drop after the big bear rally. It looks really ugly with those banks. Look at HIG, BAC, MBI. Not good. Don't count your chickens that the bear is out of the woods yet.

well thank you nyc10022 and aboutready.... we are not bears for being bear sake..... it's just that we see the "BIG" picture. Look I wish I could fast forward 1 yr from now cause I can almost guarantee this Bear rally will take some people's breath away when it crashes.... and guess what'll happen to NYC RE.... yep FROZEN like a naked skinny guy in the antarctic... that'll last a few months and then you'll see the the shadow inventory come ON-LINE in a hurry.... that's what I'm looking for and I can be very patient10 or patient11 :)

The financial crisis b/c of the change in administration and the initial brevity of it (just took really 6 months, but was really started w/ the $5gallon gas), people still thinkz it's okay to get back in the water..... I want to see the sharks get really full with the first group of penguins b/f I put my hairy little toe in :)

Well this bear market rally better correct itself soon. starting to look like we are heading down to test the lows set back in March. Which will mean, following the RE bulls logic, that the green shoots in NYC RE are about to be trampled by the bears. Ironically if the stock market craters again the RE bulls will start repeating what they said from October '08 to March '09-the stock market has nothing to do with RE! I guess brokers, whose incomes have taken a serious hit, and owners(who've watched their only performing asset crater) will interpret any man-made or natural event as good for RE prices. This brief re-kindling of hope, followed by it's annihilation, is what will produce an RE market bottom at much lower prices than currently offered.

That's exactly what i'm signing for, cfranch. Call me crazy but I believe in a 50% market correction. I'm also patient and know that won't happen overnight. In the mean time, i'm saving more, so my downpayment will not represent 20% but be more like 50% when i factor the price adjustment. Interest rates can be 8 or 9%, i don't care, i'll refinance eventually.

I see you enjoy pipe dreams sledgehammer.

Just watch and cry Alpine. Just don't say we didn't warn you...

your never going to see 50% price declines in prime Manhattan. Keep dreaming. If you want to buy for half off, go buy in Phoenix or Miami.

"I see you enjoy pipe dreams sledgehammer. "
"your never going to see 50% price declines in prime Manhattan"

Every time alpine says it, it comes true. He said pretty much the same thing verbatim about 15% down and 25% down.

That worked out well for him...

I never said there were not going to be 15% declines.

Actually, its worse... you said "there are not 20% declines".

You not only denied it was coming, you denied it after it happened!

go hike a mountain alpine292 if that is your real name... we are down 20 to 30% already... and as far as I can tell inventory keeps rising... I've had to stop the automatic emails from SE... it was clogging up my inbox with all the new units coming on-line.....

In the 2-3MM range that I'm looking at... it's already 35 to 40% off.... so 50% is NADA... that's spanish for nothing...

Oh, lookie here... a thread STARTED by alpine TITLED.... get this...

"Prices are NOT Down 20%"

I tell you, you can't make this stuff up...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7094-prices-are-not-down-20

"I don't care what the Beige book and Miller Samuel say. FIne me one apartment that has sold for 20% LESS than it's original purchase price. Go ahead. FIND ME ONE."

TOO funny.

BTW, what ever happened to this?

"I intend to buy in Manhattan soon and I have yet to see 20% drops in prime areas. When I see them everywhere (not just a few pockets), I will shut up."

You're still certainly doing a lot of talking...

interesting how 15% all of a sudden turned into 20%. Again, I never said anything prior to today about 15% declines so just zip it.

inventory seems to be leveling off, per the charts on UD. It's still increasing, but at a much slower rate.

ahhhhhh the siren song of the second derivative.... keep wishing alpine292 :)

"In the 2-3MM range that I'm looking at... it's already 35 to 40% off.... so 50% is NADA... that's spanish for nothing..."

If that is the case, then you should have no problem showing us an apartment that sold for 40% less than it's last purchase price. Let's see soem data....

and let me place an emphasis on REPEAT sales, not comps.

alpine292.... we all live in boxes so if it's a couple of floors above or below does it qualify ? or does the extra 15 feet elevation negate a comp for you....

let me clarify something.... 2/3 MM means that's my bid... so you don't mind if they come from 4-6MM bracket :)

using different apartments can distort the picture if one of them was renovated and the other was not. Plus, I am not interested in what your bid is going to be. That's not the value right now as you have not bought anything. There's no guarantee that your bid will be accepted. So I am only interested in apts that have already sold.

chk it out douche... I say that in the most endearing way...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/8273-condo-1965-broadway-lincoln-square-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/411949-condo-1965-broadway-lincoln-square-new-york

It's down 31% and that's the ask price... yah yahay hayahayayahahh 4 floors difference.... pls note that the $1.875MM has beeennnnnnn on theeeeeeeeee marketttttttttttttttttttttttttt forrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 328days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I actually believe this was the unit that PISSSSED me offfffff !!!!!!! Don't let the "new" listing FOOL you.

LMAO.... that's a $600K swing .... and we're just in the 1st inning..... good luck w/ your brokerage income.... BAD timing.... can't time these things you know.....

come on Alpine.. just give me a hug and let's call it a day....

Shaking head - I still don't get how you adore this building. I hate the pings of the elevator as it flies by each floor :)

call it the "one that got away" syndrome.... as soon as you get it... the JOY is gone :) I know... I'm like totally torn w/ my new turbo..... always wanted it.... but now -shrug-

PLS pls don't tell the wife :)

w67th, the wife already knows.

your first link does not work. I got this:

We searched our listings and while we found some eyebrow-raising asking prices in NYC, we were unable to find a listing matching your search string in our database.

Also, asking prices mean NOTHING. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. The apt. could have been way overpriced to begin with. What I care about are SELLING PRICES.

alpine, sorry, but they do mean SOMEthing. otherwise those oh so honest brokers wouldn't be so happy to tout the fact that the discount from listing is so low. you never see large discounts from listing (with some notable exceptions, crazy estates, etc.) in a healthy market. You see modest averages, up or down. In a bubble you see little to no downward, and some (in the case of new development large in the form of price increases for like product introduced) upward, with asking prices increasing over time.

for selling prices, well, just wait for the next real estate report, and then the next.

Alpine, quit sticking your head in the sand. Search the threads. 30% down on same apartment sales has been posted several times.

I don't reacll seeing 30% down sales. Plus I was asking for 40% since that is what w67 alleged. So let's see some 40% discounts. ENOUGH TALK ALREADY

WAKE UP EVERYONE!!

MARKET IS PICKING UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

Urbandigs, please just be quiet on all your analysis or rather guesses.

I am not a broker but let's put it this way, I am only brought into the process after a deal has been made. I have no allegiance to any one firm. And across the board, there is a tremendous amount of deals being made.

People in large numbers are buying again. Question my integrity or purpose, but wait and see for numbers to come out in the next few months. You will be surprised but remember, I called it first.

P.S. I've been in the business for years, this is the busiest I've been in a LONG time.

hello1234, what do you do exactly? Do you auction off foreclosed places? I hear there is like (perhaps a record!) 8 now in Manhattan

hello hello, so you are telling UD to stay quiet? How interesting and intriguing you sound! You are calling a first on your first post! Congratulations. Now go away.

I have a few persons on ignore but I can see that they still hijack every board.
hello1234, I think I know what you do. In my business INDIRECTLY related to RE deals (after-closing stage) things started to look better.

"P.S. I've been in the business for years, this is the busiest I've been in a LONG time."

Total loss of credibility in an instant.

"hello1234, what do you do exactly?"

He moves furniture.

Here's to people who really believe they know EVERYTHING...
I'm a designer, and after a looong slump, I just signed 4 (four) new clients. People bought and are renovating.

W67,
is 1965 Bway your dream apt? Is this the one you want? Just being nosy.

On 5-25-05, 10H closed for $1.9MM, so at $1.875, yer sittin' purty.
On 6/25/04, #20H closed at $1.685.
query: would you offer $1.6 today?

"Renters probably feel cool when anonymously foaming at the mouth about things they cannot control."

Nope. But I felt REAL cool when I took my real estate profits a few yrs back, and just sat back and watched ppl like you lose $200-300K in equity. Now, I can buy a place nearly 2X as large/nice, whenever I want to! But since prices won't be rising for some yrs yet, I don't need to hurry. I can cherry pick, low ball, etc, and watch owners like you become more and more and more desperate. Pass the popcorn...

Great posts, UD.

“We went from a market that people thought could never go down, and immune no matter what”
UD: people who thought this were idiots.

“Trust me, if stocks fall 20% in another wave down to near its lows, you will see how dead it gets it out there again. You cant build a bottom in prices, after such a runup on such powerful macro/credit forces, when the entire world has just changed in terms of credit.”
Exactly.

“This brief re-kindling of hope, followed by it's annihilation, is what will produce an RE market bottom at much lower prices than currently offered.”
Yup.

Correction W67: Don’t offer anything today. A yr from now, that apt will be around $1mm-ish.

HELLO1234 - "You will be surprised but remember, I called it first."

Umm, I have said for the past 3 months that activity has picked up. What the heck are you talking about? But its all relative. Did you forget this is the active season? So once again, you are comparing month to month, not year over year. Learn dammit!

HELLO1234, surprised at the numbers? I spend an inordinate amount of time looking at the numbers. They will suck, statistically, far worse than reality, because of the increased activity in the lower end due to availability of conforming loans.

I won't be surprised at the numbers, but the media certainly will.

Hey UD, think we'll think break under the 875

sorry, the gremlins in the computer shot that one off. I was of course, talking S&P here. Today could be interesting, no?

morning ar :) absolutely today IS gonna be an interesting day in the market...

dwelll yes that was the dream apt when I had just one... then one nite of debauchery and whamo! just like that .... almost Irish twins :). And no I wouldn't touch it anywhere near $1000psf... that's got alot to fall.

westelle and hello1234 (why not 4321?)... do you clean the apartments after they close? wait for it... no wait some more.... no not just yet.... wez gotz another leg down.... FYI.. mathematically weird things start to happen when you reach absolute zero.... the second derivative when you start adding even .0000000001 to zero is quite the POP.

Now back to my feeble bull, Alpine292.... check out 1965 Bway 10-11-07 close for $2.875MM 20H vs. current (1 yr on market) $1.875MM for 11H.... yes it isn't 40%, but given the fact at the bubblicious 07' it went 4% below ask.. you thinks maybe I could..... just maybe.... get it 6% below their ask after itz been sitting for 350 days to get to our Shackburger 40%? I know I know... its f'n 9 floors above w67... let me complete your sentence... you perma-hairy-bear. So I ask you as a "professional" in RE... what price differential would you have given for the 9 floors in 10-2007? Any other RE "professional" can chime in on this game....let's add that to the equation and see where 11H trades and of course if a H unit above 19th closes before 11H at 40% discount in the next few months... we won't need to quibble about the 100 feet in elevation.... and trust me... I'd be much happier w/ 11H at $1.7MM in 5-09 than the schmuck at $2.875 in 10-07... CHEERS!

yes aboutready... wifey already knows about the car.... but I'm on to convincing her we need a fishing boat for the "son"..... :)

I think we will break lows or get very close to it again.

HELLO1234 - what do you make of this existing home sales chart, comparing monthly + year over year:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/ScefQxk-tMI/AAAAAAAAE3A/kfRnlDJqYlo/s1600-h/EHSNSAFeb2009.jpg

And new home sales:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SfHHba2xbBI/AAAAAAAAFFg/PBC6BOfvAhU/s1600-h/NewNSAMar09.jpg

Notice anything? Even though there is a pickup, look at how it compares to years prior! You think you are calling something first, your not! Did you call the severity of this crisis in mid 2007 and the ultimate hit to Manhattan? Talking of a month to month pickup and declaring that the bottom is in or that we are on the road to recovery because of this pickup, tells me you have no idea about the nature of this crisis or even how to interpret trends. There is a reason the NAR got blasted for touting month to month pickups over the past few years.

"interesting how 15% all of a sudden turned into 20%. Again, I never said anything prior to today about 15% declines so just zip it."

Alpine, I suggest you take your own advice. There are now like 4 threads going, all about how you have no idea what you are talking about.