remember when the word "crisis" was all over the place.

"The Great Inconvenience"

steveF, I like how you keep starting new threads spewing your drivel. Dude, just shut up and read a book or something. You sound like an idiot when you speak and you are one of the main reasons that good threads turn into garbage. Just go away

"The Colossal Spot of Bother"

"The Momentous Moment of Moderation"

chowderhead I mean chunderboy...ahh no. If I was a bear y'd luv me.

chunder, i'm spreading positive, happy, news. Why do you hate me so?

steveF,

You know what's great?

Unicorns.

In fact, unicorns are freakin' AWESOME. And you know why? Because once you accept one into your life, they provide you with a lifetime membership into the Beer, Massage, Chocolate and Steak club. Have you not heard about the beer, massage and steak club? Well, let me tell you all about it - it doesn't matter if you don't like beer, or steak, or chocolate, or massages - whichever one you like, you get 24 hours a day for the rest of your life. And if you like all four or any combination of them, well... You're in luck! Because That's what the rest of your eternity will be - massages (happy ending or not, your choice), steak cooked just the way you want it, chocolate of any sort coated in any topping (or as a topping on anything you want), and any beer ever made or ever conceptualized, always on tap and never flat. And to get all of this, all you have to do is accept a unicorn into your life.

What? You don't believe in unicorns? Well, I assure you that they are very real! And I know this because I've accepted a unicorn into my life, and I trust that it will one day gain me admittance into the BMCS Club. How could I have accepted it into my life? Well, I just believe in them. And I trust they exist, because there are texts available to me that discuss them, as well as people available to teach me all about them. I mean, after all, with such great eternal rewards, why wouldn't you believe?

Okay, fine, don't believe in them - you're going to end up in the Pushups For Eternity club. That's where you have to do knuckle pushups on mounds of broken glass with Rush Limbaugh sitting on your back for all eternity. All because you won't accept a unicorn into your life.

I'd guess she doesn't think the crisis is over, along with million of others.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9z_wgwDooPc&refer=home

Julia Smith, 51, of Santa Clara, California, has sent out more than 500 resumes since November 2008, when she lost her $85,000-a-year job as an office manager, executive assistant, and paralegal. She’s had fewer than 10 calls and no job offers.

“I’ve worked really hard -- working full-time, taking care of two kids and going to school -- to make something of myself and here I am almost homeless,” Smith said. “I have lots of experience and the education, but nobody is even calling. I don’t think it’s going to get better, not for a long time. Not this year.”

Alanhart, i could've sworn it was Cheney, not Limbaugh. when i heard that i accepted a unicorn into my life without hesitation.

thats a sad story..all u can do is hang in there

we are out of the crisis
doesn't mean things are going up

steveF, it isn't that I hate you, (don't know you), but I just can't stand stupid people. For example, I could be a dinner with some people that I don't know and one person might say what you have been drooling out all day, and then I would proceed to destroy him with knowledge and make him feel like shit. Now, I don't hate this person, I just: mock him, pummel him with solid bullet points with the end result being that he would feel stupid for saying stupid things.

I don't hate you brother, I am just trying to help you, should you be at a dinner party about to face someone like me. Ya know, a person who know stuff.....

hilarious steveF.

amazing how misinformed some people can be.

walk along the plank dear lemming, and when you drop into the cauldron at the end of the plank, sometime around the end of summer, having no idea of what's going on, i promise... to share in your ignorant pain and i won't say that i told you so.

not.

SteveF is no wrong today than those speaking calling for higher prices in 2007.

none of the doomers in the media pisses me off more than Peter Schiff. I've been reading other forums where people who have invested with Schoff claim to be down more than 60%. OOPS!

alpine292, Dude, peter schiff was SPOT ON in 2007 and 2008. Everything he said was on time. You seem to come from the same school of thought as steveF. Complete retards u guys are....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

MMAfia,
Based on what thesis can you call him a lemming? Isn't S&P up 40% off the recent lows? Someone made a fortune the last few weeks on the BULLISH side. 40% in 9 weeks on the LONG side!!!

Who's the one that should be showered with ignorant pain now?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-05-21-homeless_N.htm#open-share-help

chunder, those kids haven't gotten the memo that as long as the banks and markets are fine, being pumped up by taxpayer dollars, the economy is great.

AR, yea, stupid homeless kids. They just haven't opened their eyes to all of the economic glory that is unfolding around them.

chunder.."brother" get over yourself. You're not that important.

from chowderhead...."I would proceed to destroy him with knowledge and make him feel like shit..now that made me laugh...thx..:)

theres an old saying about the stock market that goes "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" the same applies to real estate..developers and sellers will be forced to puke before the recovery really gets going. Its gonna be interesting to see how it plays out.

"MMAfia,
Based on what thesis can you call him a lemming? Isn't S&P up 40% off the recent lows? Someone made a fortune the last few weeks on the BULLISH side. 40% in 9 weeks on the LONG side!!!

Who's the one that should be showered with ignorant pain now?"

ericho75, nothing ever goes down in a perfectly straight line. nor does anything go up in a perfectly straight line.

of course there may be people who make money on the 'bumpy' ride down. good for them. they were either lucky or extremely astute market timers (very, very rare the latter breed is- they essentially know the majority of the quant trading system algorithms implemented in black box trading programs and take advantage accordingly).

but to confuse a temporal bump on the way down with a secular inflection is what lemmings do.

and if you don't know my "thesis" then you must be a n00b.

people who have been here long enough know what i've been warning them about, since the housing bubble days years ago. first came the pop of the housing bubble. then came the recession and financial panic.

but, as many people here know, we haven't even seen the real crisis yet.

last year's bout was just an appetizer dear lemmings.

and you thought that was bad?

man, so many lemmings going to get deep fried. and they won't even see it coming. just like that weekend when Lehman, ML and AIG gave the US a heart attack.

watch out. June is already here. There is not much more time before the real crisis hits. Prepare accordingly. don't be a lemming.

erico75... .that's right cause not a single person that rode the 40% sucker's rally up took a 65% dump in the 08'-09' fiasco..... that's right.... why count the losers?

FYI... it must be nice to not look at the 99 rejection letter and just look at the one acceptance from LIU....

NICE NICE NICE.... i'm w/ MMadia... we ain't seen nothing yet :)

Nous verrons, MM & W67. I would like for things to get better. I do not like to play oracle, myself.

Interesting analysis here:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/the-recession-it-is-over-economist-says.aspx

Doesn't mean the slide in real estate will necessarily stop. Doesn't mean growth will return to a degree observable by poor Julia Smith. I'm with ranter on this one.

evnyc, i must say that i posted something by Gordon the other day, without much background info. econbrowser did a fascinating analysis of what the 4-week moving average means. upshot? 50% chance, under normal recessionary times, of a dip of some percentage indicating future growth, anemic or not (I can't recall the ratios, but it was I believe a 50% shot with a 30% decline in new claims, feel free to shoot me down here).

but as i'm sure we'd agree we've never, in post-war economies, seen a situation where the public sector is shedding jobs like this. and more frighteningly to me, health care.

and i am posting this very simplistic abc piece for one reason only. it has a stat, and a bad one. under 20% of our current college grads have jobs.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=7636561

Evnyc,
Great read.
Signs people! Signs!

Everyone is following lagging indicators. The commodities & emerging markets are singing a different tune.

I would love to hear some of the bears here on rebuffing the claims indicator. Any takers?

I already did. You must have missed it. As I wrote in the above post, some economists have noted (check econbrowser) that the continuing claims peak argument has about a 50% chance of being accurate historically, at best. A couple of other economists have claimed that unemployment in this downturn is acutally a leading, not lagging, indicator, which is truly frightening. And as I myself have pointed out, mass layoffs have recently increased again and unemployment is spreading to sectors that usually don't see such activity, health, government and education. We also have a huge number of people entering the work force shortly, our graduates.

the other thing is that many of us will not be impressed in the slightest that the recession has ended (and as our government has not addressed the underlying causes, I am not certain the end would be the end). yes, it's much better than things getting worse. but it's not very meaningful in and of itself. .5% growth is, effectively, still negative growth, and still increasing unemployment. the people in this country are not merely statistics, they are people. they deserve better. the fact that companies are slashing their bottom lines to make themselves more attractive to shareholders doesn't, and shouldn't, bring much joy to a thinking person. the fact that our government is robbing us blind to keep the system alive that failed us so monumentally is breathtakingly depressing.

ericho, there are people with money trying to figure out where the fuck to put it. the Fed's actions have made it impossible to put money somewhere safe and earn a cent. until we complete the deleverage process, which our fearful leaders are trying to avoid at all costs, we will have excess money looking for something to buy. it's not that hard to understand, really.

just read this. directly on point, and i'm even quoting someone who came to the same (roughly) conclusion as Gordon. although i'm not certain the 4-week moving average has truly peaked, or won't remain at close to the peak for a fair amount of time.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/05/guest-post-more-thoughts-on-fake.html

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/mass-layoff-events-pick-up-faciliate.html

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3600 it is extremely important to note that they are using any recession that had EITHER a crunch or a bust for their analysis, not only ones that had BOTH.

"On average, the recession ends two quarters before the credit crunch ends and nine quarters before housing prices bottom out; equity prices tend to bottom out just as the associated recession ends (see Figure 1, right panel).
....
Overall, these comparisons suggest that, even if credit availability is limited, recoveries can take place. The key is probably that consumption starts picking up during recoveries, since investment typically lags. The speed of this process in turn is likely to hinge on the pace of adjustment in household balance sheets as that impacts the level of consumption. This observation does not augur well for the future, however, as households in a number of advanced economies are expected to go through a difficult period of adjustment.

More generally, our findings suggest that the nature of the prospective recovery will likely be slow and shallow. In particular, our ongoing research documents that recoveries following credit crunches and house price busts are often weaker than other recoveries are. Moreover, it takes much longer for output to return to its pre-recession level during these types of recoveries. Unless the problems in the financial sector and housing markets are addressed with comprehensive reforms and well-designed monetary and fiscal policies, it is difficult to foresee the global economy going back to its trend growth in the near future."

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/may2009/db20090522_625957.htm

as revenue projections are being revised down monthly, i suspect the situation is much worse than presented here.

"Back in California on May 21, Schwarzenegger said he'd gotten the message and was asking his budget team to go back to the cutting board. "The people want Sacramento to live within its means," he said.

It's a message politicians across the country have to come to grips with. According to the nonprofit Center on Budget & Policy Priorities, some 47 states face budget gaps in the 2010 and 2011 fiscal years. (Hats off to you Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota.) The collective shortfall is a staggering $350 billion. Congress offered some relief with $140 billion in state funding packed into the $787 billion stimulus bill passed in Februrary. California is set to receive $8 billion of that. But the appetite in Washington to work out additional funding for the true basket cases like California is nil. "They all got something in the stimulus bill," says Brian Riedel, a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation. "No other state has requested a special bailout."

That leaves states turning to a mixed bag of revenue hikes and expense cuts. Governors have announced furloughs of state workers, layoffs, fee hikes, and across-the-board spending cuts. Sixteen states are enacting tax hikes and 17 others are considering doing so. "The size of the gap puts everything on the table," says Arturo Perez, a fiscal analyst at the National Conference of State Legislators."

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/22738/from/home

"As we edge towards the traditionally thin holiday stretch, investors are wondering whether last week’s 5% haircut in the S&P was a pause that refreshes, as the bulls would like to believe, or the beginning of the end of the bear market bounce and the other side of the aforementioned “W” formation?

My view—one I secretly hope is wrong—is that contrary to popular opinion, the socioeconomic landscape is getting worse, not better. While price is the ultimate arbiter of variant financial views, the recent rally was synthetically manufactured, much like it was at the turn of the century.

The natural response to that observation is to highlight the sharp gains that manifested as a result of that coordinated effort. I would respond that there is a massive distinction between a legitimate economic recovery and credit-fueled growth that was masked by a lower dollar and skewed by the spending habits of a slimming margin of society.

Throughout the prolonged period of conspicuous consumption, cumulative imbalances continually built and the middle class steadily eroded until the debt bubble burst in 2007. It stands to reason that the aftermath of a grand experiment gone awry won’t be cured by yet another grand experiment with far fewer able participants."

wow, I just found my first post-college roommate on Minyanville, author of an article on the TARP repayments. most people would be excited if their friend became an actor.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/04/news/economy/gergen_business.fortune/index.htm

Early on in our economic crisis, there was a palpable sense that people just wanted to get back to "normal"; now the realization is sinking in that we are not returning there. That is desirable in some ways: Who wants to restore a world of excess leverage, reckless risk taking, and indulgent lifestyles? But for most Americans it will be hard to accept that old jobs aren't coming back, that it could be years before they have rebuilt their savings, and that their country and their currency will probably play a diminished role in the global arena.

If the recovery is joyless, corporate America will face a massive leadership challenge. The argument that blame for this mess spreads from New York to Washington, Wall Street to Main Street, is no longer working well. With Republicans in disarray, Democrats in Congress, along with the press - occasionally with help from the White House - have successfully pinned the blame almost solely upon corporate greed and stupidity.

Who wants to restore a world of excess leverage, reckless risk taking, and indulgent lifestyles? Most Americans.

and more importantly, their government.

one last article before I go off to do some gardening (which I despise, but must be done).

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=05&year=2009&base_name=are_they_smoking_crack_at_the

The April jobs data did show a somewhat slower rate of job loss than in the prior five months. However, the loss of 611,000 private sector jobs was larger than the average job loss initially reported for the prior five months. In short, there is not much evidence that the rate of job loss is easing thus far.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124303129632948467.html?page=1

"Do Be Wary of Green Shoots"

"Hold your horses on calling a new bull market -- the bear has several years to go."

Barron's, not Roubini.

Maybe they stopped using the word because its a given...