declining inventory on urbandigs

Oops. rent-to-hold means hold-to-rent

Median does mean nothing. The issue here is nearly 100% of the people to whom new condo space was intended to be marketed have seen their income fall in half. The other half is unemployed. I think finance guy has the right idea. Condos will eventually be bought by investors, and their required return equals a very low purchase price.

"So, the question is what process will stop this momentum."

You've stated it well. My hunch is... nothing within sight at the moment. We'll have to keep our eyes open to see what happens with the condos whose values plummet. I think rents will eventually stabilize and then start to rise again, and it doesn't necessarily have to come because of a sudden upsurge in Wall Street jobs. Supply and demand will even out, and it is always amazing how many young people new to NYC will get their family to cosign for them to live in rentals they can't afford on their salaries.

The reason I don't see prices for condos and coops in Manhattan rising anytime soon is that eventually mortgage rates have to go up to something approaching a historical norm, if there is such a thing, and with 8% or 9% mortgages, all the numbers people are tossing about as what is affordable and how much of a multiple of this or that works out to and rent/buy ratios..... all goes out the window.

One sentiment expressed by a few people here repeatedly is that New York will go back to being this great place for creative artistic people to live affordably. I disagree. New York was always expensive and most especially difficult for the artistic types, who never made much money in New York compared to the cost of renting or buying. I think the lower prices for condos and coops is a wash with the lower incomes across the board and whacks to people's investments.

And I think Manhattan will continue its demographic trend, economic downturn or no....the middle classes want to live in Manhattan.

lowery you are right. it all boils down to things getting cheap enough that fewer professional couples with families need to leave. that will balance the market...and maybe send the local burbs into an echo crash. $1mm classic sixes will keep a lot of families here.

8% mortgages will send us to 70% of peak. No doubt.

wage deflation, and where wages settle, will have a tremendous impact on price equilibrium. also, how long the lending standards remain so restrictive. there are so many factors that can affect demographics, household creation rates, ability of the state and city to provide services, not just in the city but in the suburbs as well.

8% interest rates and $1 million classic sixes are not going to happeny anytime soon.

Alpine, what exactly do you know about anything? Classic sixes are out there for $1.5mm now. If you don't think we can fall another 30% then wait and see, and shut the fuck up while you are at it.

I was referring to classic sixes in decent condition BELOW 86th St. If you know of classic sixes that meet this criteria, post them.

This $1.5 million classic 6 that just went under contract is on 95th St. So classic sixes below 86th for $1.5 million are definitely not in the foreseeeable future.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/123792-coop-4-east-95th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york

alpine, I'm not following your logic - 4 E 95 is prime UES to me, and more desirable than 85th and York, for example - $1.5MM seems reasonable, so why wouldn't something at 85th St. over past 1st but not on CSP get down to $1.5MM as well?

The 90s is not prime, especially since your right on the border with crazyville just a few blocks north. Prime to me are the 70s and 80s.

and to go from $1.5 million to $1 million would require an additioanl decline of over 30% and I do not see that happening.

just so you don't have to continue talking to yourself:

what income does a family need to afford a $1 million apartment with a 30% down payment?

alpine, I don't agree about prime-ness on UES. That link you posted is to a building literally steps from Central Park and Museum Mile. The 70s and 80s in Yorkville have stretches where any park is far away, and where there are rows of tenements with low-rent railroad apartments.

Only Alpine can find me a great comp for my out of ass $1.5mm classic six comment, and at the same time proof my claim that he is an idiot, by denying 5 e 95 is prime Manhattan. It is actually prime within below-96th Manhattan. So $1.5mm is the mark for prime areas below 96th. Sure, its not PS 6 or prime CPW, but other than those, its as good or better than anywhere, no? That question goes out to non-Alpine non-idiots.

PS: Classic sixes are going to $1mm or less, within the next 18 months.

"Only Alpine can find me a great comp for my out of ass $1.5mm classic six comment"

I did NOT find you a comp to support your out of ass comment. Your original comment said that classic sixes will be $1 million, not $1.5 million. In no way does my comp support your claim.

Haha. My claim has always been that we are 30% down and have 30% to go (at least). So by logical extension, if I said $1mm classic sixes... you do the math....if you are capable of it.

Besides, isn't the greater point that you are willing to deny that a south of 96th park block is prime Manhattan the greater point? You are a fucking idiot. Tell us, is prime Manhattan anything south of 96th, or is it whatever your ignorant Jersey ass decides it is to make whatever non-point you are working on at the moment?

CC: $1m coop, $2500 maintenance, 30% down, 6% interest. Buyer needs about 250k income using the bank standard; more using most coop's.

And they'd be economically better off renting at rents below about $7500. What is market rent on a classic 6 on CP?

that's the rub in a nutshell...and that's for $1 million with 300K + closing costs + more cushion for a co-op. that's the arithmetic that's going to drive this market not some stupid percentage reduction from some arbitrary former value.

Columbia, to be devils advocate, when this market is down 50% it will have an impact on people. Some will view "half off" as a bargain. Some view it as a bargain now. If interest rates are still 6%, then many will consider $6000 pre-tax payments on a 30% down scenario for a $1mm classic six as preferable to $7500 in rent. Even if you load the $6000 for 8% opportunity cost on the $300k, that gets you up to $8000 vs. the $7500. At that price point, the tax benefits really are benefits. So what is that....11x rent. Where it bottoms all depends on the 'tranches' of buyers and their beliefs relative to supply. On a buy to rent scenario, this hypo is a 6% cash yield to an all cash investor. Not terrible. Also, at $1mm (roughly half off), there is realistic 10-year appreciation potential. It is staggering that values need to chop in half before we can even lay out a reasonable "investment case" for an investment minded buyer.

but...lets face it---your comparison rental number is made up. plus, as i said above, the real numbers here revolve around incomes and expectations of future incomes. virtually no one that i know expects to make more in the foreseeable future. many people have either lost their jobs or seen the discretionary portion of their income plummet signficantly or are very fearful of one those outcomes in the near term.

lets eliminate the very bottom of the market, i.e. under 500K and the top end crazy part. i would suggest that for the remaining people in the middle, the amount they spend on housing is a lot more discretionary than any of us ever thought. i think people will downsize their living conditions to pay for other things such as education and retirement savings.

and so mayn of these $1-$2 million dollar apartments weren't so great to start with so the "sacrifice" is actually quite limited as well.

I didn't offer up the rental number....but I think its roughly right. The crux of this situation is around the marginal family making the decision to stay in the city with the first or second child. I can speak to this quite personally. I agree with you, the events of the last year and change have changed my perspective immensely. Yes, there is nothing intrinsically great about 1500 sqft of living space with a challenged third 'bedroom' along side of a kitchen. Its even worse when you consider at best you will be able to send your kid to a K-6 school and then be forced to pay for private. Its difficult to project what the future holds in seven years as a finance professional.

Rhino86 - if an apartment in a small building like this was 50% off would you buy it? I wouldn't and here's why. I don't want to pay my neighbor's maintenance expense.
You now have several neighbors whose cost basis is $1,000/ft and your sale gives them a new comp of $500/ft. Accordingly they are way underwater. Most in the building probably put 10% down - so let's assume they paid $1,000,000 for 1,000 sqft and put $100,000 down. I'll assume that most buyers in Harlem are younger than 40 and that they don't have much more cash/wealth other than their down payments because if they did they would buy in a better, more established neighborhood. I would, however, think they have stable employment with decent income (although in today's market I'd suggest that many in the building now wouldn't qualify for the same loan they used to buy their apartment just a year ago).
Now, if you make say $200K and were the buyer at $1M. Now your place is worth $500K would you continue to pay your mortgage? NO WAY. You walk. You lose your $100,000 and monthly carrying costs and closing costs, but you no longer own a condo at $1M that's only worth $500K. Do you know how long you'd be making payments until you finally got above water? You walk, let the place foreclose and move on with your life. Plenty of great rental apartments out there, you still make $200K/year and you start saving cash again. Heck you may even stop paying your mortgage and live rent free in the place for a year or so. In 3 or 4 years you could have plenty of cash saved up and could buy back your same apartment for $550,000.
I don't want to own in a building where all/most of my neighbors have costs basis 100% above current market value.

it is impossible to project seven years into the future in any profession. i think, though, that in late 2002 (having survived sept 11th and its economic aftermath) that the general mood in financial services was that things were certainly on the upswing and the type of calamity that we have experienced so far was an out and out impossibility.

as it relates to manhattan and the RE market, its not just financial services...it is every significant income producer. Even my doctor (who has a thriving park avenue practice) is cutting back and talking about money in a way that i never heard from him previously.

We are all individually and collectively trying to figure out what's most important and what's worth reaching for---a process that i personally think is long overdue and going to result in many unexpected overall improvements. Just as I think that BMW and Mercedes are unlikely to achieve their previous levels of high end sales, I think that it is unlikely that RE will command the frankly absurd premiums that have occurred in the last five years.

I think the 2bed/2bath market in the $1M range has been benefitting from five areas, in no particular order:

increasing value
renters buying for the first time
people downsizing
couples with first child
new residents to the city

Because of the demand, the market here for good spaces in good locations is strong and will remain strong. Not everyone has been hit by the economy. For some, the only impact they have seen is lower interest rates, cheaper apartments and greater selection.

who hasn't been hit by the economy?

Columbiacounty - funny you should ask - a friend was unemployed several years ago so he went to a job fair. He thought is was poorly run and thought he could do it better so he started his own company. He now conducts fairs in 75 US cities and will have more than 365 fairs this year. He is absolutely killing it. He's 31 years old, started with no money, and raised no seed capital at any point so he owns 100% of the company. It's good to be him.

CC -lets start with the 90%+ who remain employed. Granted some are earning less, but most haven't changed (an assumption). For everyone housing costs have decreased significantly.

Alpine, I do not think that classic sixes are at $1M-ask at this point, but there are some with $1.2M ask:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/404133-coop-1349-lexington-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/396536-coop-440-east-79th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/365143-coop-525-east-82nd-street-yorkville-new-york

Not unlikely to see some of them closing below $1.1 or even at the $1M level.

no spinnaker, i think particularly in the high earners income is significantly down. and for many people, maintenance/taxes have and will continue to increase, as wage deflation continues on its not-so-merry way.

look at the U6 going forward, including for NYC. the U3 is becoming increasingly useless as a measure of unemployment.

The last apt. on your list is not a classic 6 as the building is clearly not pre-war.

and neither is the second one.

Spinnaker what real estate agency do you work for? Lay off the cool aid. Real estate is overvalued. And you don't seem to understand that the 90% aren't important. The state of the buyers pool, a much smaller subset, is what matters. Buying is still a shit proposition vs. renting.

no, the 90% IS important. Lay off the kool aid rhino.

Only the ones in the market, dopey. How do you like all those classic six listings at $1.1-1.2mm?

2 of them are not classic sixes dickhead. Clearly nobody here knows the definition of the word "classic"

Oh, and since I like you so much, I'm going to write an entry about you on the following site:

http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Main_Page

Sure, OK Rhino.

AR - I'm looking at the doughnut, not the hole. High earners aren't buying 1M 2br's are they? If they are, even better.

Spinnaker whats your point? Is this good value down 30% after quadrupling in 10 years?

Alpine are you a chick?

Just because an apt. has 6 rooms does not mean it is a classic 6.

Just because 5 e 95 isn't in PS 6, its still Carnegie Hill...not only is it prime Manhattan, its a prime area within prime Manhattan. You are just a dope. Prices continue to crash as they should after a bubble. Enjoy Jersey.

You are right, one of those isn't a six, its a true 3 bed, granted without a dining.

wow, I've never see someone use the word "prime" that many times in a sinle post. Clearly you are trying to justify that an area is prime when it is not. If it was prime, then prices there would cost just as mch as comparable apts. in the 70s and 80s. Oh, and for many people, not being in the PS6 zone is a HUGE drawback so I would not rank the area as prime for that reason.

Whatever it is, it is real Manhattan. I don't see why we should be limited in our discussion of Manhattan to your very best favorite neighborhoods. Or actually, your very best favorite blocks within the Carnegie Hill neighborhood. Clearly sixes can be had now for $1.5mm or less, vs peak pricing over $2mm. A $1mm mark is not far behind, and those examples Perot gave qualify, especially the Lex one.

Value is a relative term Rhino. I think using the word value and Manhattan real estate in the same sentence is much the same as using civil and engineer (jumbo and shrimp?) in the same sentence. Any outsider looking in would and should gasp, turn around and run for the hills. In the end the market determines value, not me, not you. Look at the numbers: 32 out of 49 UWS 2/2's listed for $1M or less, are in contract. The market is giving you your answer.

2 of the 3 apts. posted by Perot are NOT classic sixes. And the only one that is a true classic 6 is not in the best of areas, especially since it's not in the PS6 zone. I'm willing to bet a classic 6 in the PS6 district is going to be well over $1.5 million.

Instead of Manhattan, let us discuss property values in Jersey -- a 4000 sq ft house on a 5000 sq ft lot near the swamps is likely to be worth closer to $400k than the $800k Alpine is hoping for. I think this is the crux of his argument. A projected decline in Manhattan wipes out his hopes and dreams for his piece of the rock.
My sympathies Alpine. On the other hand if you can find a sucker now who will pay anything for your property you should bail, rent in Riverdale, and then buy in Manhattan after the bottom has been duly spanked, and your optimism for the subsequent future actually makes sense.
A classic 6 is a substandard choice for a family -- the 3rd bedroom is a joke -- a pantry masquerading as a bedroom. Getting it back down to $1 million which was the case as recently as 2002, is hardly unreasonable. Of course that drops your rock in Jersey to $450k.
Sorry

That leaves 17 for sale on the entire UWS. Out of the 17 how many do you think are holes? How many are sellable in any market?

Spinnaker, the market is giving the answer...down 30% and falling. Just because some transactions have happened here at much reduced price levels doesn't seem a reason for you to call a bottom. True enough, time will tell. History doesn't give much precedent for an eight month real estate correction in Manhattan with a V bottom, but feel free to vote for that. I'd never advise someone to bet on that. But you don't advise people, you sell real estate.

"a 4000 sq ft house on a 5000 sq ft lot near the swamps"

Wow, your ignorance of NJ is astounding.

I like it Joe Davis. Someone is on board with my double dip suburb bet. Manhattan rolls and suburbs take another dip as families decide to stay in the city. Could not agree more.

Familiaes are NOT going to say in the city. No matter whether apt. prices go up and down, NYC public schools will ALWAYS suck. Mark my words. They will always be substandard. White people are not going to send their kids to NYC public school with the ghetto kids form the projects.

and yes, I said white people. I don't care, call me a racist, but I'm not going to be PC.

Yes, spinnaker, and when the numbers are reported on a quarterly basis, the majority of people will be shocked, totally unaware that prices have fallen thusly and that the silly beast, the "median" price, is now so low. I wonder if they'll think that the prices that are reported should be the floor, or if they will then think that this is a sign that the market here is now behaving as it has been in other bubble markets, indicating that further declines are likely? perhaps the "manhattan is different" theme has become the "manhattan won't do as badly," but do you really think that will be sustained?

If families stay in the city NOW, why wouldn't more stay at lower prices. Have you considered courses in logic. Honestly, everything out of your mouth is poorly thought out. I've now realized you must be a woman. There is no logical accountability in anything you say.

Aboutready, isn't the answer obvious? We saw how momentum worked on the way up...Now, drive it in reverse.

oh, and let's see how many families stay in the city when crime goes up. Let's see how many white people stay on 95th St. when they see a bunch of black kids wearing baggy pants standing in front of their building.

A racist woman at that! Nice.

"If families stay in the city NOW, why wouldn't more stay at lower prices."

Middle class families are NOT staying in the city now. Only those who are rich and can afford private school and those who are too poor to move out are staying in the city.

"Honestly, everything out of your mouth is poorly thought out. I've now realized you must be a woman"
Rhino, do you find any logical accountability in what AR says? She is a woman, and one of the smartest/informed posters here. I didn't expect this sexist comment from u. alpine is not very smart, whatever gender he belongs to.

Rhino - I'm not predicting a bottom, a V shaped recovery or anything else. I'm simply observing. I get in less trouble that way.

to jazzman: interesting...out of curiosity, who puts up the money for job fairs? would have assumed in the past that it was potential employers, but can't imagine that's still true.

Sorry Mimi. I am not saying all women lack logical accountability. What I am saying is the off the wall inconsistency of Alpine is giving me a nutty teenage girl vibe. Sorry. It is what is it. The way she jumps around deciding that prime Carnegie Hill is what we are talking about at a moments whim when boxed it. Its childlike, but I am assuming she is not a child.

Well Spinnaker, you can observe that 2 beds are moving at lower price points. Not sure what that adds to the discussion but happy brokering.

if families are staying in the city, then why is it anytime I walk past a public HS during recess I don't see any white kids?

Silly bitch, what is your point? On one hand you are predicting white flight, on the other, you expect values to hold at or near current levels.

I'm not a woman, ok asshole? And I am not predicitng white flight. It's already happening and has been for a long time. I know far more families who have moved to the burbs than stayed in the city. And 99% of the families I know who stayed in the city do not send their kids to public school. And the 1 family that I do know who sends their kid to public school currently has their apt. listed for sale on SE. I believe they listed it the day they found out their son did not make Stuvyestant.

Silly bitch, so in your view who you know and what they do is a big factor in the price trajectory? What is your projection and interest in the direction of Manhattan prices? You are just a jumble of nonsense.

Enough of this idiocy for me for one day.

AR- I think the lack of foreclosure and investment/speculative factors in the coop market will indeed result in a different animal here. Oops, that might actually qualify as a prediction... see ya! Gotta get OUTSIDE!!!

...I mean I gotta get to my open house! Maybe today's the day!!

There is not one UES; there are two, the western, more prime than prime section, and the eastern section. The borderline is either Lex or 3rd, depending on your opinion. The western section, Fifth, Madison, Park, goes north of 96th Street on Fifth. You can find more expensive places in the east than the west. Depends on many factors. But being on Fifth, or one or two doors east of Fifth, is primey-prime-prime. That's an interesting picture someone is painting, of a black teenager standing in front of a coop one door away from Fifth in - horrors! - baggy pants. Care to take a stroll down that block and verify it?

The problem is we were talking Manhattan in general, south of 96th and Alpine was trying to shit on 5 East 95th which is, as you say, primey prime. Alpine is just a dope and a racist. I am not sure what her agenda is, at once with racist rants then denials that we can stack another 30% decline upon the one we've already seen.

When you speak of an additional 30% decline, Rhino, you might want to be sure you understand what the denominator is.

If the original price was indexed to 100 and we are now at 70...

Does a further 30% decline bring us to 40 or 49 (70% times 70)?

Interesting arithmetic.

spinnaker, i think it will be different, but not immune. enjoy the day. i'm upstate so my outside is just out the door and consists of hauling wood around that my husband has chainsawed to pieces. we lost a dozen trees this winter from the ice storm and are just getting around to it. believe it or not, this is a moment of relaxation.

rhino, give alpine hell.

I'm well aware. My guess is -50% from the top....compounded basis. 70% x 70%. I believe it can be worse if interest rates rise. I think 50% is a round number that would take us to the average price to rent ratio. The level is also appealing because its 2002 levels, which arguably marks the entry into the silly bubble. I think higher interest rates would be required for a worse decline than that.

Topper: When people say we're headed 30% lower from here they mean 50% from the top - or 49% in your example.

Alpine, I had 4 more examples, but streeteasy did not let me post s many links (spam detector). I listed a few variations to a classic-6. One was a true 3-bedroom, which I assumed would be better than a classic-6 for most. (Unless you really, really want a pre-war.) And why someone would prefer a maids room instead of a real bedroom?

But you indeed seem to move the target. Initially asked for a classic-6 in Manhattan. Then below 96th. Then PS6. Then... Then... Then...

The market is moving slowly down. Not in a stock market fashion crash, but with meaningful declines.

When it will start going up? When people think that it makes sense to buy. Nobody likes a depreciating asset, so even if the market has reached bottom, buyers will not come unless they see a few months of stable prices. As long at they see pricing declining they price their bids to accommodate the downside risk.

Here are a few **alternatives** to a classic-6.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/376432-condo-2-south-end-avenue-battery-park-city-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348021-coop-55-east-end-avenue-yorkville-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/413107-coop-203-west-87th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

The common charges for the BPC place are sky high. Is it land lease? If it is, I would not use that as a comp since they typically sell for a significant discount.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/363199-coop-440-east-62nd-street-lenox-hill-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/383841-coop-138-east-36th-street-murray-hill-new-york (classic 6, in contract, $898K ask)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/345361-coop-333-east-41st-street-murray-hill-new-york

and for your second apt., it needs a lot of work since the 2 apartments have not been combined.

and the 3rd apt. also needs to be combined as well.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/399316-condo-529-east-87th-street-yorkville-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348021-coop-55-east-end-avenue-yorkville-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/380791-coop-127-west-96th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

529 East 87th is a 5th floor walk up. We discusssed the apt. on SE before.

I wonder if it's useful to inject into this direction-of-Manhattan discussion a lifestyle factor. People have discussed the difficult, complex choices married couples with children or planning children go through. There is occasional mention of the well-to-do empty nesters who buy in Manhattan, but I see mostly numbers crunching in relation to private school tuition, cost per square foot in precise public school districts, RE taxes in certain suburbs v. price of homes in certain suburbs.

Many people who buy apartments in New York City are childless and will remain childless. I'm not sure that matters, since one would expect those people to gravitate to Manhattan and avoid suburbs, but still...... classic 6s and houses in the surburbs..... I don't know if that's really the whole picture.

Further, I am noticing something in parts of Manhattan I never expected 20 years ago: neighborhoods drowning in pedestrian traffic, especially on weekends, with condominiums whose owners are never home. It's another wrinkle in these calculations. I'm thinking of Soho, but also parts of Midtown. Everyone sees to want to be there, but the people who own homes there only check in on the odd blue moon, and apparently can afford not only the high price, but as a second or third or fourth home. The young family starting out is squeezed against some awesome competition!

What about the Murray Hill apartments? (I will assume you do not want to discuss the W96th, being a "fringe" area...)

Yong families, especially those who work outside of finance, have always had trouble affording Manhattan pretty much since the beginning of time.

What do you mean by the "beginning of time"? It's really only been the last 10 years.

Yes - it's only been about the last 10 years.

10, and particularly 20 years ago, a doctor earned about the same amount as an investment banker.

No longer the case!

And with all due respect to my financial friends, that's absurd. And changing.

doctor salaries can vary greatly depending on their specialization. I have a cousin who is a pedetrician up in Albany and she maskes about $50k. Then I have another cousin who married an invasive heart surgeon who makes about $500k.

Yes, but the median doctor and median I-banker weren't even close last year. That didn't use to be the case.

"neighborhoods drowning in pedestrian traffic, especially on weekends, with condominiums whose owners are never home. It's another wrinkle in these calculations."

Those are likely the condos owned by the foreign buyers the media loves to talk about so much...

are there none invasive surgeons?

"Those are likely the condos owned by the foreign buyers the media loves to talk about so much..."

I guess they are. Or wealthy Americans who invested in a Manhattan condo and rarely use it. Doesn't give much of a residential feeling to both have empty condos and packed sidewalks (packed with tourists)

"White people" already send their kids to public schools with "ghetto." I'm talking about my friends (usually white) soap star, cameraman and other media people, other poor stupid white people like that--their kids go to PS 87 then usually Delta, then Beacon or one of the specialized schools

It's more work for the parents as they do spend a lot of time at the schools, but they do this on purpose so their kids will be adults who can work and live in a diverse world. They're not even idealists but purely practical. The world is changing and we have to also

The bars on Amsterdam became stroller friendly years ago

"It'll be interesting to see second quarter Miller Samuel condo/coop prices. Part of the pick-up in contracts may reflect a further decline in prices."

This can also account for a decline in listings: a lot those who are being told that they can't get more than their debt when they go to list aren't putting stuff on the market which they had intended to.

"Once co-ops have enough of their owners defaulting on maintenance payments, you might be surprised who'll they accept.
If you paid $1.5M for a co-op in 2008 and it's worth $900K six months from now, are you still going to pay your maintenance?
Many will walk and become renters."

More likely they will default, get foreclosed on and end up with an owner occupant purchasing at a vastly lower number. I think people who expect any of the "better" buildings to relax their willingness to accept investors because unit owners are defaulting doesn't understand the dynamic involved: more likely they will get tighter and raise cash re4qirements. OTOH, the "crap" Coops which have been trading "as if" they weren't crap Coops for the past decade will hear the clock strike midnight and turn back into pumpkins.