Rents cheaper now or in 6 months?

Less inventory, though, so fewer choices, even if you are correct and they are cheaper. But if I had to bet I would say a LITTLE cheaper because of seasonality and because a few desperate landlords who held out for too high rent in August/Septmeber.

even if there is ZERO change in the market, if you are willing to be flexible you will be able to get a better deal in 6 months. the reason I say "be flexible" is that almost no one does a December 1 move-in. So, you will have lots of leverage if you are willing to cherry pick desperate owners. OTOH, you will have a lot less to choose from, since no one moves in on December one, no one moves out on November 30 as well.

in other words, I basically agree with jason.

Thanks for your thoughts - hadn't thought much about the possible lack of inventory.

my lease expires at the end of June and over the years I have always noticed I pay more than if my lease expired in December timeframe. Also while the rents are down somewhat from last year, in the buldings i looked at (Glenwood, Rose) not very many availabilities (and hence very tough to negotiate).

grapefruit, i wouldn't take on-line listings at face value. a landlord may very well only list a few units, representative of the different sizes, but there be more actually available.

I was actualy dealing with the leasing offices in person...but point well taken.

nybits is showing 2395 apartments in NYC. I find almost all of those apartments are real and available. So if brodsky, related, etc. are keeping inventory off of NYBits, that means there are a LOT of apartments for rent!

Its true. Large rental buildings by the big companies often have "sample" units available, rather than each and every...they do not want to embolden the current tenants, or even prospective ones. Avalon does this and Glenwood. I think Rockrose and Brodsky list them all. IMO.

We were on a June 1 renewal cycle, and we signed a partial year lease at a lower rate, to bring us to a Feb 1 cycle. I'll deal with lower inventory, because the prices will be materially lower then. Frankly, I think the inventory will be fine in 9 months, because you'll have more desperate condo owners who are looking to rent rather than suffer more negative cash flow.

I just had a long standing client walk into my office because he has a unit coming up in his building (he's an owner occupant with 3 rental units). The current tenant is moving out mid-July and I suggest he offer a 13 month lease just to move the future start date from August1 to September 1.

446 Open Houses for rentals on either Saturday or Sunday -- most of these are either broker listings or small management companies. Derek - I don't know with prices falling at the rate they are if the condo owners will be even close to their carrying costs. I have seen a number of rental listings that are simultaneously listed for sale. I've seen a number that have been price chopped for the last 6 months that are still for sale. And I've seen a number of rentals priced below market create a feeding frenzy (in Brooklyn). I've also seen properties in transitional area of Brooklyn stay unrented -- clinton hill, prospect heights, bed stuy.

I like the idea of the partial year renewal. There is no way you wont have a lot of choices, especially if new construction condo type buildings appeal to you.

Plus, I don't think the big mgmt companies will get their inventory down by then -- I just checked an Archstone building on NYBits that has 38 apartments in the building for rent! That's around 7% of the units. amazing.

If you read urban digs and miller, you will see that a HUGE amount of new rental inventory is coming on line later this year and in 2010...not to mention condos that will become condos.

How much further can the rental market drop or has it bottomed? I have seen some great deals, but most of the incentives on good apartments come with a two year lease.

Slumbog - If the landlords only offer up the good stuff to get people onto two year leases (although I know cases where people got lots of goodies, resisted the two year ask and ended up signing for one year), then you know what the landlords think about the outlook for the market. The sign of the bottom will be when landlords resist two year leases (or try to lock in a big increase in year 2) because they think they can price up at the end of a one year.

To jason10006's point, supply is the tenant's friend right now and should remain so for a while.

I meant condos that will become nondos...but yeah...I think what will start to happen, though, is that Manhattan will stabilize this year as leases in NJ and the boroughs are up, and more people read the NYT and other stories (or just hear from friends0 how "cheap" Manhattan has become...and so you will see rent declines in 2010 outside of Manhattan, and flat-ish and maybe even increasing rents in Manhattan. This will have the ripple effect, also, of making more non-Manhattan LIC, Wburg etc condos into nondos.