WOAH! Check out the 10 year!!

The correct way is to subtract the ten year TIP from the regular ten year. The 10 year TIP is 1.76% and the bond 3.67%, so that implies an expected inflation rate long term of a whopping 1.91%.

this will be really bad for real estate....

dude its not inflation..its the world realising that the US going to have to borrow a gazillion dollars to stay afloat

dont bother! its a waste of finger muscle to type a response

can't wait for 10% interest, housing will go to zero then!!

TBT is the trade. Going to keep riding this position

let's see interest rates rise, usually leads to less money....so where's the inflation???? the deflation trade is on, that means cash is king & queen.

75% LIC RE ... if ever there was a good opportunity to use faustus's renaming of that neighborhood!!!

w67thstreet,
Your continuous use of profanity, name calling and inability to use complete sentences leads me to believe you might have early symptoms of Alzheimer's disease. Again, you offer nothing to this community. Good luck and may god help you.

ericho, you are new to SE and probably you don't know about the posters. w67 has a big entertainment value for us. He is smart and funny and very politically incorrect, and the incomplete sentences (and profanity) are part of his style. He is like SE Saturday Night Live. Stay in this board if you want, nobody can make u go away, but don't dare tell the people that has been part of it to leave. It took me months to begin posting in SE, until I understood who was who. Maybe you need to do that. As I understood, you already bought. I wonder why are you here.

Well, he's not funny one bit.

Even though i picked up a place for my family, i'm also looking for investment ideas. At the right price, a 1 bedroom in Manhattan might not be too crazy of an idea.

i've always said he's kind of the George Carlin of the posters. Ericho, i hate to break it to you, but he offers a hell of alot more insight than you do. (not to mention the oh so important amusement factor).

investment? try the atelier.

Who's offering insights? I'm not..i'm merely here to crash the bear party.

"again you offer nothing to this community." how quickly we forget what we wrote less than an hour ago.

"how quickly we forget what we wrote less than an hour ago."

Human nature.
If it's not tech stocks, it's housing, etc.

If I lived in the District of Overbuilt Underserviced Condo Housing Eyesores Between Astoria & Greenpoint, I'd want a Manhattan pied-à-terre desperately.

And pay 300% more? Sorry, i'm not that stupid.

"he's not funny one bit."

Oh, come on, yes he is, at least 10 bits or one byte.

Dude, find your funny bone & tuff skin, otherwise, this can be a mean street

My foreskin is thick. Does that count?

I heard plastic surgeons now perform foreskin restoration. If Wh67street wants, i can give her mine.

"i'm merely here to crash the bear party."

Not a good move. Those who have tried to do so before you have gone missing, never to be heard from again.

no, but w67th might appreciate it. your head is thick as well, if you can't keep track of what you wrote a few minutes ago, particularly as you admit to the same thing you are accusing someone else of. it's not human nature, but it's something equally fundamental.

"My foreskin is thick. Does that count?"

can I see it?

"can I see it?"

No, it's only for the girls on West 67th street, Queens NY. :P

Maybe it's thick because there's little it needs to cover....the exhibitionist has to crash a party and scare us with his foreskin....

hung like an acorn?

"Maybe it's thick because there's little it needs to cover....the exhibitionist has to crash a party and scare us with his foreskin...." lol..that's cute. I'll let you take a peep.

"hung like an acorn?"

No, like a tree trunk.

the ten year? is that your ten-year tree trunk? is that a fast maturing specimen? i think not.

Hey, i'm the one saying current gold prices, higher commodity prices along with the recent sell off on the 10 year notes is indicating inflation. You were the one arguing against that just yesterday! Now, you're on the bandwagon!

The spread between the ten year and the ten year tip is less than 2%. That is not a huge inflation signal.

"The spread between the ten year and the ten year tip is less than 2%. That is not a huge inflation signal."

I agree...not yet.

are you saying i'm on the inflation bandwagon? if so, you really need to work on your reading comprehension skills.

yo dwell...

hey penis breath... the spread between your ego and wealth is like the chasm btwn LIC and mantan (as my Japanese friends say)... : P

AR,
Stop spinning girlfriends. One minute it's deflationary collapse, the next it's inflation in the horizon.
Make up your mind.

Maybe i can fit it through that 67th street entrance on central park.

mimi....ditto, ditto

ericho, you're an idiot. i've always said that there are huge deflationary pressures that are being dealt with in a manner that will, sometime down the road, create inflation but not in wages and home prices. there. i've made up my mind, and guess what, it hasn't changed.

now! this is a thread for the ages!

this is a dating message board, right?

"dont bother! its a waste of finger muscle to type a response"

LOL exactly UD, exactly.

let's see if this character sticks around like steveF even after being called out as a lemming in a couple of months when we get our main course. or could he go the spunky way?

"this is a dating message board, right?"

Of course and i'm Angelina Jolie.

"...a lemming in a couple of months when we get our main course....."

Isn't this a 99% bear message board. Who's the lemming now? Crowd mentality...got to love it.

rates went up about a point today, i think i had 5 or 6 price changes, the lenders couldn't keep up.

that will be good for the value of ericho's new purchase.

Of cause it is!
Rates are pointing to stabilization!

Just so you know, rates have topped out in the month of May/June over the past 3 years. Might be happening again.

Long bonds anyone? Time to LOAD UP! If you believe in deflation, it's time to BACK UP THE TRUCK!

ericho75
1 minute ago
ignore this person

Of cause it is!
Rates are pointing to stabilization! I also like to hang out in men's locker rooms.

ericho please take your perversions down to the Village.

McHale,
OH NO! OH NO! All these things are happening below because things are spiraling out of control. The 4 horsemen are riding high with their bows and arrows blazing!

Explain how the following items listed below cannot be classify as some form of stabilization.

1) Gold only 5% from the all time highs
2) S&P 40% off the recent lows
3) Economic sensitive commodities (Silver, Copper, oil, etc.) are rocketing. Agriculture ETF (DBA) just broke out of a 8 month base. All those folks in Asia must be eating consuming all that food.
4) Bond yields are heading north without skipping a bit. *new highs today*
4.5) Junk bonds have rallied over 1,500 basis point from their lows!!!!! OMG!
5) Home sales number are up
6) Retail stocks are outperforming the general market
7) Consumer confidence logged it's biggest month over month increase in a decade
8) Manufacturing numbers came in well above expectations
9) Distressed banks and financial companies around the world are raising new capitals without any problems.
10) Banks like Wells Fargo are recording record profits

U.S. banks will face an avalanche of loan defaults and derivative failures. Clearly, the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval bestowed on many banks through the much-hyped “stress tests” were a politically cynical, confidence-boosting whitewash. Even so, most banks were deemed undercapitalized! This dark thought perhaps explains the Treasury’s apparent unwillingness to accept early TARP repayments. This is a suckers rally.

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. “problem” banks climbed 21 percent to the highest total in 15 years in the first quarter as provisions set aside for loan losses weighed on earnings, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said.

The FDIC classified 305 banks as “problem” and their total assets rose 38 percent to $220 billion, the highest since 1993, the agency said without identifying any lender. The FDIC said its insurance fund slumped 25 percent to the lowest level in 15 years.

“The banking industry still faces tremendous challenges,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said today at a briefing in Washington. “Asset quality remains a major concern.”

Regulators have taken over 36 lenders this year, including BankUnited Financial Corp. in Florida on May 21 and Silverton Bank of Atlanta on May 1, which combined cost the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund $6.2 billion. Twenty-one banks collapsed in the quarter, the most since late 1992, as the pace of failures accelerated amid the worst crisis since the Great Depression.

Bair today said the agency is “actively working” on guidelines to encourage private-equity firms to bid for failed banks, after BankUnited was bought May 21 by a group including WL Ross & Co. and Carlyle Group. The FDIC sold IndyMac Bank in January to investors led by Steven Mnuchin, a former executive at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and buyout firm J.C. Flowers & Co.

“I am comfortable with the transactions we’ve done so far, but I think we need to have some guidelines,” Bair said.

Loan Losses

Funds set aside by banks to cover loan losses rose 64 percent to $60.9 billion in the first quarter from $37.2 billion in the year-earlier quarter. Bair said 97 percent of banks were “well-capitalized” at the end of the first quarter.

“Banks are taking prudent actions to set aside reserves and build more capital because they know they need to be prepared for problems over the next couple of quarters,” said James Chessen, chief economist for the American Bankers Association in Washington.

The insurance fund, generated by fees paid by banks, fell to $13 billion from $17.3 billion in the previous quarter, and failures in the quarter cost the fund $2.2 billion, the FDIC said. The FDIC imposed an emergency fee to raise $5.6 billion to rebuild the fund, with more assessments possible this year. The agency forecasts failures will cost $70 billion through 2013.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. today estimated it will pay $700 million to $750 million as its share of the FDIC one-time assessment.

‘Problem’ Assets

Banks classified as “problem” based on measures including asset quality, earnings and liquidity accounted for 1.62 percent of total assets, up from 1.14 percent in the fourth quarter. Regulators rate banks on a scale, with 1 being the highest and 5 the lowest. A bank rated 4 or 5 is classified as a “problem.”

FDIC-insured banks had net income of $7.6 billion in the first quarter compared with a $36.9 billion loss in the fourth as trading revenue at larger banks increased. The FDIC said 22 percent of U.S. banks had a net loss and 59 percent reported lower net income compared with a year earlier.

Industry earnings were the highest in four quarters, the FDIC said. Citigroup Inc. reported a $1.6 billion first quarter profit on April 17 after five consecutive quarterly losses. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Wells Fargo & Co. also beat analysts’ expectations with quarterly gains.

Bank capital rose by $82.1 billion, the biggest three-month gain since the third quarter of 2004, with most of the increase coming from a “relatively small” number of lenders including recipients of U.S. aid, the FDIC said. “The good news is that banks have been able to raise a lot of new capital even before taking a more aggressive steps to cleanse their balance sheets,” Bair said.

The agency said of 3,603 banks that paid dividends in the first quarter, two thirds cut the rate in the current quarter and 995 eliminated the payout.

The FDIC insures deposits at 8,246 institutions with $13.5 trillion in assets. The agency reimburses customers for deposits of as much as $250,000 when a bank fails.

To contact the reporters on this story: Margaret Chadbourn in Washington at mchadbourn@bloomberg.net; Alison Vekshin in Washington at avekshin@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 27, 2009 14:23 EDT

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IRS tax revenue falls along with taxpayers' income
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By John Waggoner, USA TODAY
Federal tax revenue plunged $138 billion, or 34%, in April vs. a year ago — the biggest April drop since 1981, a study released Tuesday by the American Institute for Economic Research says.

When the economy slumps, so does tax revenue, and this recession has been no different, says Kerry Lynch, senior fellow at the AIER and author of the study. "It illustrates how severe the recession has been."

For example, 6 million people lost jobs in the 12 months ended in April — and that means far fewer dollars from income taxes. Income tax revenue dropped 44% from a year ago.

"These are staggering numbers," Lynch says.

Big revenue losses mean that the U.S. budget deficit may be larger than predicted this year and in future years.
FIND MORE STORIES IN: Baby Boomer | Moody's

"It's one of the drivers of the ongoing expansion of the federal budget deficit," says John Lonski, chief economist for Moody's Investors Service. The Congressional Budget Office projects a $1.7 trillion budget deficit for fiscal year 2009.

The other deficit driver is government spending, which, the AIER's report says, is the main culprit for the federal budget deficit.

The White House thinks that tax revenue will increase in 2011, thanks in part to the stimulus package, says the report from AIER, an independent economic research institute. But it warns, "Even if that does happen, the administration also projects that government spending will be so much higher each year that large deficits will continue, and the national debt held by the public will double over the next 10 years."

The government may have a hard time trimming spending to reduce the deficit when the recession ends. The 77 million Baby Boomers— those born in 1946 through 1964 — will start tapping their federal retirement benefits soon, which means increased government outlays for Social Security and Medicare.

"It will be doubly difficult for federal government to reduce expenditures and narrow the deficit as rapidly as they did following previous recessions," Lonski says. At the end of the last major recession, in 1981, Boomers were in their 30s. Their incomes were expanding, as was their appetite for goods and services.

The Boomers now are in their 50s and 60s and unlikely to keep increasing incomes for long, which means that revenue from income taxes could flatten in the next few years. Also, Lonski says, they are more likely to save for retirement than spend — and consumer spending is a big driver of the economy.

"The American consumer led us out of previous recessions with some semblance of gusto," Lonski says. "They're too old to do it now."

Hey enricho see the elephant in the room yet?

great paper presented at the Atlanta Fed, the banking panic of 2007 (continuing today), bank insolvency. long but accessible.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/news/CONFEREN/09fmc/gorton.pdf

Although well off their all-time highs, American stocks are now marginally up for the current year. In the past two months, the markets have recovered over 30 percent from last year’s lows. But something just does not add up. In the first quarter of 2009, average U.S. corporate earnings were down over 30 percent. There is once again a serious disconnect between stock prices and economic reality. Perhaps these sleepwalking investors think that the 50 percent sell-off in 2008 was overdone and great bargains are now available. To believe this is to misunderstand the economic hurricane of last October, and the gaping holes in America’s hull that it exposed.

Go on...you're only explained 3 out of the 10.
I'm here.....got my double cheese burger and diet coke right by my side.