new inventory for the summer?

p09, is was a bit surprised as well. but the real shocker to me was price changes. the 30 day average for price cuts is 485, the last two days there have been 211 price changes (SE doesn't allow any decrease, so a few of those may have been increases, but i'm sure not many). distress seems to be showing up.

Confused here. Inventory according to UD is going down. Where do you get your # from?

that's daily inventory. unusual this time of year to see high daily numbers of new inventory. would expect to see both significantly lowered total inventory and very sluggish new inventory after Memorial Day. Many people usually pull listings right after Memorial Day for the summer.

ar, I am talking about total inventory.

i know that. i was explaining that p09 wasn't. you're the one who said you were confused. if you want to make the point that total inventory is still declining, just do so.

Ah, now I am there. Sorry, a little slow this morning.

I'm wondering if the world financial collapse hasn't altered our annual buying/selling habits the way the writers' strike changed the television schedule last year. The once-archetypal cycle of pilot season/upfronts/fall "new season" launch/spring "season finale" was disrupted, and the aftereffects are still being absorbed by the industry. Combined with the other undermining factors - like cable, internet, no ad dollars, and reality programming - the television industry seems to be at a bit of a loss to preserve their traditional schedule. (see http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/19/business/media/19adco.html)

Could the same thing be happening in real estate? You can't "sell in May and go away" if you can't afford to go away anyway. And if you don't have a share in the Hamptons this summer, why not go to a few open houses? My buy-side clients don't seem to feel pressured to wrap up a deal before June. We're all waiting for the shadow inventory to start trickling in. And some of the new listings are putting the old ones to shame.

Obviously, this is just anecdotal at best, but I wonder if anyone else feels it too.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

tina, yes, it might be kind of a hybrid market. obviously units are being pulled, but it will be interesting to see if they reappear in a few weeks if the contract signed number remains relatively high. and it will be doubly interesting to see what happens after the next Miller/Samuel report comes out.

i don't know about all areas, but i know law firms do not generally lay off people while there are still summer associates in the office, i'd guess the same would be true in other high-paying areas that have summer positions. a few people i've spoken to have indicated that they expect lay offs to pick up again later this summer, which might result in a spike of listings in August, which would also be highly unusual. also anecdotal. these are unusual times.

tina: Good points you make. I for one am feeling a bit different. I am going away for the summer. I have looked at so much stuff over the last year, I am bored of it. It seems being patient has worked. Prices in my submarket are just now starting to move. I don't feel pressured to make a quick move. Many may stay, most will just take some time off from looking and hope prices have adjusted downward by Spetember.

patient09, i would agree with the caveat that true distress may result in some serious price cuts. even if you're just idly perusing once in awhile, that might get a buyer's attention.

I'm with patient09. I was somewhat on the lookout for apts (read listings but stopped going to open houses this year), but I'm totally taking the summer off. Seems like nothing is going anywhere anyhow.