Summer Market Heats Up

Actually net inventory is down. Seems to be a lot going on in spite of what people are calling a dead market.

i would expect that since there are more people taking less vacations, the market may not have died for the summer like usual. just look at how many hamptons/nj shore rentals are still available.

there are plenty of people who are feeling that the prices are right for them and saving rather than spending.

I've seen several apartments on my watch list taken off the market in the past few weeks. I've been waiting to mention it to see if it ticks up at all, but this is my preliminary observation.

I've seen closings on mine. I think the ones who don't need to sell and have priced too high will eventually bow out and wait for sunnier days. The net effect on inventory is the same. As long as the number sustains a downward trend we could see confidence returning. But how many buyers have their finger on the pulse of inventory trends? Hard to say.

Buy now or be priced out forever.

By "need to sell" do you mean the wolf slavering at the door? Just the acrimonious divorces and people who have already closed on a new place in a new city?

Need to sell means all of those things doesn't it??

I had a couple of friends that felt the need to sell (worries bonuses would never come back or they would lose job). They are feeling much more confident right now and some of them have pulled their listings already or leave them on at inflated (07) prices.

carnegie, i'm thinking they're not part of the 8% who are actually unemployed.

ar, my point is there were quite a few of people that were simply in panic mode over the last year but in the end didn't actually lose their job. Those are the people that have pulled their listing. Why can't I ever share observations w.o getting hit with your dogmatic black and white approach? I never stated that there are no people that need to sell.

From my corner of the battlefield, it feels like we are running about six weeks behind -- instead of this weekend being the first weekend of "summer" so that everyone starts going to the beach, it feels like the level of customer interest/offers/closings is where it "should" have been for peak spring, i.e., mid-April.

I predict a fairly active summer (don't get me wrong, still lousy compared with two year ago) with it not turning dead till August instead of July.

We'll see how rate-sensitive customers are too if it looks like the 4s are slipping away ..

ali r.
{downtown broker}

Wow, brilliant aboutready.

Its funny how TOP read that on the urban diggs site, but NOT the article he wrote specifically debunking such a notion.

carnegie, i think you're overreacting. i'm just pointing out that there's a whole bunch of unemployment out there. how is that dogmatic? it's true.

ali, unusually high number of price cuts the last two days (compared to the last 30 days). might be interesting.

What Noah actually said:

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/05/contracts_continuing_to_be_sig.html

In my saved listings, there's way, way more off the market than sold or in contract.

I only save the ones that are priced appropriately for todays market. That's likely why mine close, rather than de-list.

Regardless how the inventory moves out the effect is the same.

it really needs to be compared to previous years' summer inventory levels. going above 9000 during a prime season was considered monumentous not long ago. being near 11,000 after Memorial Day is even more so, to my way of thinking.

ar, everyone agrees that there was a monumentous shift in the market (and prices dropped considerably). But this is now the past. The point is where we go from here? Inventory going down is a good first step imo.

good first step for whom? and of course it will go down. if it doesn't i'd be hugely surprised, although i suppose it is possible with all the non-closing new development units. it always goes down in the summer. i'm saying you need to compare this summer's decline to past summers' declines.

ar, if your theory of severe market distress was right, inventory would not go down. More and more people in despair would put their apt on, simply because they can't afford it any longer. This is obviously not happening. I call it good because a lot of people are feeling/doing better, you would call that bad? You want everything deteriorate so you can buy cheaper?

good first step for whom?

exactly..I'm rootin for prices to go down as far as possible.

You want everything deteriorate so you can buy cheaper?

thats what makes markets sport. I didnt cry on the way up, i just dealt with it. now people can deal with the decline.

simplistic, carnegie. the ones not under duress may be taken off, the ones under distress may remain on. inventory would still decline despite high distress levels. recall that only slightly more than 800 units per month have gone into contract recently, we don't know how many of those have closed, and there have been over 11000 on the market. it doesn't take much distress to move this market.

remove the emotion carnegie. i actually don't want anyone to be hurt. the facts are the facts, unemployment is chugging along, and incomes are nowhere near housing costs. i didn't overinflate this market, and for those who won on the way up there were those who were priced out. for those who lose on the way down, there will be those for whom it becomes affordable.

i have no intentions of buying until at least 2012, and probably won't do so then. i have no vested interest in prices.

carnegie, I have friends doing exactly the same thing. They kept their apartments on the market at 2007 prices and have no intention of selling at lower prices. (Yes, they are employed.) If someone bites they will look for an upgrade opportunity. I told them it's a waste of time but ultimately it's not costing them anything.

So here is the big picture question: We all see the high inventory numbers. How much of this supply has super high price elasticity like the above? Is the elasticity of supply increasing or decreasing?

I don't understand some of the previous posts about inventory declining. I started the previous thread with the correct question, then a new OP started this one. Inventory is exactly where it was in April. The fact that it went from 11,200 to 11,000 over 3 weeks is irrelevant, especially at a time when many listings are being pulled for seasonal reasons. The other thread had the correct implication. Will new listings over the next several weeks overwhelm new contracts and lead to a stabilization of inventory, or will it grow over the summer?

most of my saved listings are going off-market not because they've sold but owners and developers looking to refresh their stale unsold property at a later date. starting to smell like rotting fish in the hot summer sun.

My point is that I am hoping the economy recovers and I am hoping not to live through the distress of 08 again. There are so many posters on here just routing that everything goes to hell, so they can buy cheap.

I'm with Ali on this one (what else is new?) I'm just gonna re-post what I said on patient09's thread:

I'm wondering if the world financial collapse hasn't altered our annual buying/selling habits the way the writers' strike changed the television schedule last year. The once-archetypal cycle of pilot season/upfronts/fall "new season" launch/spring "season finale" was disrupted, and the aftereffects are still being absorbed by the industry. Combined with the other undermining factors - like cable, internet, no ad dollars, and reality programming - the television industry seems to be at a bit of a loss to preserve their traditional schedule. (see http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/19/business/media/19adco.html)

Could the same thing be happening in real estate? You can't "sell in May and go away" if you can't afford to go away anyway. And if you don't have a share in the Hamptons this summer, why not go to a few open houses? My buy-side clients don't seem to feel pressured to wrap up a deal before June. We're all waiting for the shadow inventory to start trickling in. And some of the new listings are putting the old ones to shame.

Obviously, this is just anecdotal at best, but I wonder if anyone else feels it too.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

and whats wrong with talkin your book?? free markets kids..they work both ways. deal

Marco
-shoebox buyer

carnegie, many people have been saving for a number of years trying to enter the market, totally bemused that it wasn't within the realm of possibility despite the fact that it seemed as though it should have been. they saw people buy and flip, make a ton of money, move on. winners and losers, a bubble accentuates both on the way up and on the way down.

but don't harsh on the buyers, particularly the first-time buyers or those who have two children in a one bedroom, who are sensing opportunity and welcoming it.

jason10006 NOAH said this or thatwho cares?I'M SURE HE'S a nice,honest man,but what are his credentials,and in particular,what SUCCESS has he persnally had in real estate?the fact usually is that when there's a consesus torun and sell manhattan real estate during past downturns ,the risk takers bought and ended up reaping big rewards.[not withstanding the on-ending,snide STEVEJNX commentaries].

tina

i agree a new dynamic is at work in RE, something none of us have ever seen. i believe we are in a deflationary RE spiral. the very things people offer as green shoots-rising stock market, reflation trade-are going to hurt the RE market. people are looking for value and that explains this bear market rally which just might turn out to be a new bull run(we'll see). with the wealth destruction that took place this past year most people are hungry for returns on their investments. stocks still look cheap long term but RE does not. money flows to value and that hurts RE as it is viewed as expensive, has high entry fees and associated fees are spiking(taxes, maintenance). easier, safer and cheaper to rent.

The OP will post again when he returns from his tanning salon appointment.

Nobody knows if we have hit bottom, but after the bottom is reached it will be an L-shaped recovery. In the last cycle, prices peaked in 1988, bottomed in around 1992, and took another five years to get back to 1988. So buy if you love a place and plan to stay for many years. But there is no rush, especially for studios and 1-bedrooms.

Hi Jerk, I'm back!!! So exactly what are you adding to the debate?

11,000 inventory and how many are BS listings grasping for their last opportunity to cash out? - BE AWARE - A substantial proportion of this inventory does not NEED to sell and their prices and time on the market reflects this. These will eventually de-list (and they are in large numbers), others will go into contract (and they are in increasing numbers). Look beyond the numbers and you will see....

C'mon Jerky tell me more about where I spent the last few hours while you were here alone wondering where I went.

UWSmynabe: Every listing that "does not need to sell" that remains unsold, means that there is one buyer less looking to trade up.

Sure, I'll buy that.

In a way you're making my point. There are a lot of assumptions being made about these inventory numbers. They are full of the residual effects of the last 10 years and less meaningful than most people think.

UWSmynabe - nobody has denied this pickup that is 2-3 months in works already, after the first drop to comfort zone. Its bee especially active in last 5-7 weeks. Due to lagging nature of data, and time it takes to close, yes, we will see a nice tick up in volume when the report comes out in July!!! And YES, media and commenters will declare bottom regardless of fundamentals or what may or may not be happening in 32 days time.

there will be deals at every price!

aboutready - what exactly does previous years data tell you about today? It's like comparing football stats with baseball stats -we are in a completely different game and forging new ground.

I'm in the recruitment field, mainly for banks, hedge funds, financial sponsors, etc..

I'd be actually encouraged by the potential for the residential real estate market right now in NYC. The level of confidence among people who are probably buying $1MM to $5MM apartments is increasing substantially.

Equity markets are on the upside.
Merger activity is increasing - remember that a merger deal takes many months before it gets to a contract and announcement. The activity is very high right now inside the banks as well as the private equity firms that are participating in about half of the talks right now.
Where folks like BofA/Merrill and Citi and UBS are having their difficulties, others like Morgan Stanley, Goldman, and Deutsche and Barclays are doing well - Deutsche and Barclays are being aggressive about hiring good talent.
The leverage that allowed for a lot of the hedge fund returns is capped, but what several have explained to me is that this means lower paydays at the top - the hundred million and billion dollar guys, and therefore a need to work harder by the fund as a whole, so more hiring at the out of school up to middle and up levels. This is good for the breadth of the market (the $1MM plus market)
Very significant legal activity taking place - a lot of attention has been focused on new associates, but new associates aren't making the real estate market. The experienced attorneys are working non-stop now and billing aggressively, and in many cases the activity, besides the uptick in mergers, is on restructurings. Once again this means that dollars are flying out of corporations and their shareholders and into the professional economy of New York, very strongly so. Same applies with the uptick in litigation that will only be increasing - notice last week how the Cadwalader case was not dismissed - there'll be more of that type of litigation. Even David Einhorn was out today talking down Moody's and whereas that is from an investing / shorting point of view, the actual litigation on the historical calls is mounting. This will drain the insurance companies in favor of the New York professional economy.
All in all, as the season turns brighter and warmer (hard to say on a dreary day like today), the Manhattan prime market is going to relatively be significantly stronger I would say from my various points of insight. I think that other than a short churning, we are at the bottom already. And so again, this does not apply to Queens or the Bronx or to the far suburbs or to California or Arizona or Detroit which are their own economies and markets.

at the very least it tells me that inventory levels are very high.

Exactly, this years yards per carry beats last years ERA.

OK. You also got your leased Lexus detailed.

we shall see

Renting can always find a short-term period where it is the best economically, but over the medium and longer run, it is a fallacy that Americans can get ahead by renting. What we are seeing now is a very sensible entry point in nearly all markets, and Americans can start to build equity and build personal security. Manhattan too will be a great opportunity for the buyer today - there is no sensible dispute of that, only an emotional one by people who missed out on the last great run and, well, let's face it, want prices to decline because they want to BUY, not because they want to continue to rent. They want to buy so the question is if they'll be smart about it this time with this strong opportunity.

Love the handle DaBulls!

On the quality of inventory issue; over 2000 listings are more than a year old, and some are approaching 5 years on the market. Until someone finds a way to weed out the stale and the head-in-the-clouds listings, these numbers are MEANINGLESS.

I would bet most, if not all, well customized searches have been dropping inventory while the UD overall count has continued to expand.

"What we are seeing now is a very sensible entry point in nearly all markets, and Americans can start to build equity and build personal security."

Is that from a NAR powerpoint?

The wall street journal just ran a piece yesterday, which is like the 10th I have seen on this topic, all of which say that the real fallacy is that buying should be viewed as an investment...the journal piece pointed out (like everything else I have seen) that amazingly investing in plain old treasuries is a better long-term investment. We happened to live in a rare era where real estate did well...for a while.

...but if you bought in 1987, or even 1997, you would have made more money as of now having rented a put the difference in USTs. True story.

any uptick right now is a head fake. once everyone has lost all their savings then it will be over.

it will be over as in "judgement day"?

"...but if you bought in 1987, or even 1997, you would have made more money as of now having rented a put the difference in USTs. True story."

Yes, thats the best way to judge an investment... cherry pick the best years, and use tht to justify buying.

Worked like a charm for most of the country, huh?

Jerkstore:

"What we are seeing now is a very sensible entry point in nearly all markets, and Americans can start to build equity and build personal security."

Is that from a NAR powerpoint?
_____________________________

I have to admit, it does have that kind of ring to it...They must have committees of people who whip that stuff up to spin it just right. (Reminds me of the "clean coal" commercials sponsered of course by the "clean coal committee", but I digress)

DaBulls:

there is no sensible dispute of that, only an emotional one by people who missed out on the last great run and, well, let's face it, want prices to decline because they want to BUY, not because they want to continue to rent. They want to buy so the question is if they'll be smart about it this time with this strong opportunity.

(I also like the handle by the way). Still, I feel liberated renting. I am actually pretty happy with the freedom of renting. If you need to move, there is some hassle, but no worries about selling the place. I never have to mow any lawns. I like investing in liquid asset classes. There are some drawbacks in terms of having to suck up rent increases from time to time, but I have to imagine this is a wash if common charges, taxes, and other improvements increase the cost of owning.

Still, if buying were CHEAPER than renting, I would consider it. There is no way I am gonna spend a mint on a Manhattan condo or coop when it is CHEAPER TO RENT. When the only metric that supports the price of a condo in Manhattan is that "people seem to pay it", don't you ever worry that there won't be a "greater fool" in the future to pay more for your place than you did?

> "What we are seeing now is a very sensible entry point in nearly all markets, and Americans can
> start to build equity and build personal security."

> Is that from a NAR powerpoint?

ROTFL.

Funnier, it might actuall be true.

"(I also like the handle by the way). Still, I feel liberated renting. I am actually pretty happy with the freedom of renting. If you need to move, there is some hassle, but no worries about selling the place. I never have to mow any lawns. I like investing in liquid asset classes. There are some drawbacks in terms of having to suck up rent increases from time to time, but I have to imagine this is a wash if common charges, taxes, and other improvements increase the cost of owning.

Still, if buying were CHEAPER than renting, I would consider it. There is no way I am gonna spend a mint on a Manhattan condo or coop when it is CHEAPER TO RENT. When the only metric that supports the price of a condo in Manhattan is that "people seem to pay it", don't you ever worry that there won't be a "greater fool" in the future to pay more for your place than you did? "

And very well put on this. I'm ont a fan of renting over buying or vice versa. Pros and cons on both. But when one is significantly cheaper, its a little nutty to go the wrong way...

nyc10022...but the rent keeps going up, up, up...that's my major concern...I'm paying $2495 for a small one bedroom non-doorman bldg. Wouldn't I be better off buying a studio for $350k with 30% down and keep my monthlies to $1800???

Julia, I'm not sure where you are looking. Multiple news sources have shown that rents are DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.

And just a quick search will find you deals well below last year's prices.

> Wouldn't I be better off buying a studio for $350k with 30% down and keep my monthlies to $1800???

Not if the studio hits $300k in a year. Then you your monthly cost is closer to $5800.

Yeah, Julia, I'm not sure what market you are looking at... but even REGNY says manhattan non-doorman 1 bedrooms are down 7% YoY and doorman 9%.

"Graduates should check out non-doorman buildings on the Upper East Side, where rents are at a 13-month low"

http://www.tregny.com/manhattan_rental_market_report

Summer is here and hundreds of deals continue to get done, while many listings bow out of the market unable to achieve their price. The sellers who couldn't do a deal will be back in a couple of years, maybe. Those who think they'll be back in the fall fail to understand the underlying premise that many sellers made a conscious decision not to meet the market price. That mindset will not magically change in the fall. All the logic and historical data that says they'll be back in the fall is based on an appreciating market. Those who continue to look at the past for guidance will continue to get it wrong. Its a new game.

So what's happening here? Did everyone forget to to read the rule book? You're not supposed to buy in the summer. You're making the experts look like a bunch of blubbering fools. In the face of all the words, predictions, analysis, charts, commentary, tea leaf readers, the market is doing its own thing. Notice how quiet things have gotten here???? Everyone is scratching their head, counting their money and wondering if they shouldn't start looking hard at making that purchase. Some juicy deals out there and they are being gobbled up with increasing speed.

sort of...i agree wholeheartedly with your first paragraph but volume was so slow that it is hard to read too much into this bump up. there will always be people who NEED to buy for some reason or another and also some that just don't care about trying to time the market so purchases are bound to happen. i have gone from seller to buyer but will be a renter for a bit because as you said i "made a conscious decision not to meet the market price" because it still appears to be way off.

That's a broad statement about prices still being way off. Thousands of people disagree. Not sure what your market is but there are some solid deals to be had out there and a tremendous selection. Also, consider average list to close prices are seeing further discounts of over 10%.

but sniper, aren't you on the opposite side of this discussion from the person with whom you are wholeheartedly agreeing? UWS is saying that sellers refused to meet the market and are now gone for years, leaving the poor buyers (i.e., the market) stranded. That must be why inventory is so low - it's down a whole 5% from about 11,000 to 10,500. Nothing left to buy. The sellers "bow[ed] out of the market". Too bad, so sad for buyers. If I understand your post, you decided not to meet the market (or rather the ask, not that that is market) from the BUY side. UWS's post is just "buy now or be priced out forever" stated in two paragraphs instead of seven words.

true - it may be too broad of a statement. i guess i just feel like the sellers are not as in tune with the sea change as the buyers are. they can't see the forest for the trees. i could be wrong but my gut tells me that only distressed situations are adjusting price downward. when the general seller realizes that these new comps are where prices are going to have to be (not just where the distressed guy down the hall was because "well, he lost his job so he had to sell low," etc.) that is when i will feel we are not "way off" anymore. is that better?

sidelinesitter... prices aren't going up anytime soon, never said they would. The contention here has been that buying will dry up in the summer. It hasn't.

but i think we all agree we are 3-6 months (maximum) into a 36-48 month cycle. so...using averages 4 1/2 months in 40 months...maybe 11% of the way. lot of time left for a lot more action. how many more jobs are going to be lost before a real bottom? where will the stock market stabilize? what about interest rates?

sniper

I disagree, there will always be people who need to sell, not need to buy. You can always just rent why would you HAVE to buy??

Two accepted offers last week -- now we'll see if the buyers can get mortgages -- one needs a conforming, one a jumbo.

I'm hearing this anecdotally from other agents too. If there's liquidity in the market, we will indeed see an uptick in volume in the next couple months. Spring, better late than never!

Prices feel flattish to me from where they were three months ago -- I'm talking the prices that things are actually trading at. Agree with UWSmynabe that offers are coming in at (small) double-digit discounts off list.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

You are indeed a colossal bear columbiacounty. For your sake I hope you are able to successfully manage and interpret all the shifting indicators, as well as seller sentiment, and find your ultimate sweet spot.

sniper.. I agree with the ratcheting down effect of distressed sales but disagree that all sellers will accept 40 - 50 - 60%?? off. They'll just bow out and call it a day

I know it sounds broker-y, but I'm seeing properties heading into contract at a fairly fast clip. I'm working with several buyers here in Brooklyn, so am keeping tabs on a fairly wide range of listings. Even new construction seems to be moving. In several cases, the last remaining units in smallish condos (5-12 units) - some of which have been on the market since 2007 - have gone into contract in the past week or two.
Admittedly, I'm only looking for great deals for my buyers, so I'm not keeping an eye a lot of overpriced listings. But even single- and multi-family home sales have ticked up lately.
All just anecdotal, natch, but interesting nonetheless.
Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

"The contention here has been that buying will dry up in the summer. It hasn't" This I agree with. Both statements, actually. My view is that buyers and sellers will meet on price at every point on the way down (and, eventually, on the way back up too). It makes sense that the market response to lower prices, which is more deals, could overwhelm the "normal" seasonal slowdown in the summer.

"That's a broad statement about prices still being way off. Thousands of people disagree" It's getting pretty hard to disagree with the statement that prices are off, and almost as hard to disagree that they're way off. I think that the thousands of people who have signed/are about to sign contracts are saying that they like the purchase price today and are comfortable with the outlook. The willingness to buy today is not the same as a belief that prices have not fallen. Rather, buying today is often a consequence of prices having fallen.

true about needing to sell. i was just thinking about some people i know that just bought and didn't even consider renting. it is more of a mental "need" than circumstantial.

help me out here: SE shows 396 recorded sales in the last 30 days...yes there is a significant lag but, does anyone really believe that " the thousands of people who have signed/are about to sign contracts" is real? thousands?

i asked ali front porch a couple of days ago if she would care to share real numbers rather than anecdotes and was met with stoney silence.

"I know it sounds broker-y, but I'm seeing properties heading into contract at a fairly fast clip." yes--tina it does sound brokerish...no numbers --- can't tell if you're talking about 2, 4 or more than 10. either way...is it possible that thousands of people are buying yet SE shows only 396 closes in the last 30 days?

if its true, it really is headline news.

Don't catch the falling knife!! We are in a real estate period of a dead cat bounce. https://news.fidelity.com/news/article.jhtml?guid=/FidelityNewsPage/pages/finding-housings-bottom&topic=economy

You are indeed a colossal bear columbiacounty. For your sake I hope you are able to successfully manage and interpret all the shifting indicators, as well as seller sentiment, and find your ultimate sweet spot.

I don't UWS, I hope columbia, marco, aboutready and nyc10022 crash and burn. They are hoping for everyone else to crash and burn so they can benefit. But the best part is they are now in a nose dive with smoke out the rear.

columbiacounty, you hit on the head in your first paragraph. If there really are 1000+ buyers out there, it will take several months for that to show. The 400 closings (plus another 350 in Brooklyn) in the past 30 days aren't THAT far off to discount the idea. Especially since those contracts were signed in a somewhat less confident time for the economy.

cc, Ali and Tina are just saying what they're seeing, with all the necessary and proper hedges and caveats. Can't expect them to hand out numbers about their own businesses.

"I hope columbia, marco, aboutready and nyc10022 crash and burn. They are hoping for everyone else to crash and burn so they can benefit" how will anyone benefit if the economy crashes and burns? if the master plan were as you have sugested---wouldn't we be better off shilling for you to buy, buy, buy?

columbiacounty... try looking at sales in contract with the obvious caveat that a small percentage will not close. Recorded sales is old news and represents activity from months ago.

nwt: fair enough but of what use is this information? kind of like me saying: "gee, it seems like units in my building that used to go very quickly have slowed way down." i think its true--but i don't understand how that helps anyone else.

how do we know what percentage will drop out?

The equity markets look wobbly at best but most likely are going to re-test March lows. That will shatter what little confidence the RE market has experienced. Just too dangerous to wade into at the moment I'm afraid. Better prices coming by years end.

re: level of sale activity, here are today's stats from the Urbandigs listing and sales widget. Hopefully the formatting holds when I post. 1,039 contracts signed in the last 30 days is a better coincident indicator of market activity / leading indicator of closings than the ~400 closings in the last 30 days, which reflect mostly spring contract activity. Not all of the 1,039 will close, but deals will also get done that don't flow through the SE database that UD mines, so I don't think you can just dismiss the 1,000+ number. Well, maybe cc can because s/he has a pretty well demonstrated problem incorporating unwelcome data into his/her market view, but most others won't dismiss it.

1-day 7-day 30-day
New Listings 98 543 1,869
Price Cuts 44 137 522
Contracts Signed 44 254 1,039
Total Inventory 10,475 10,541 10,734

sidelinesitter, thanks for posting that. Does anyone have YOY stats on contracts - would provide a bit more on whether this theory holds any weight.

cc, not much use, but then we all throw out these little anecdotal chunks of info. Makes a nice change from the analyis of what's happened and predictions of what might. The "FWIW" is always understood. BTW, ditto in my building re: apts that used to move quickly.

YOY stats were a useful prediction tool when we were on a steady multi-year trajectory.

there will always be sellers and buyers based on need from both...I upped my price and went to see one bedroom open houses...i was surpised at three bldgs i went to there were four agents in the lobby and no one at the open houses...they all jumped up when i went over to them and i received e-mails and phone messages from three of the four. All the agents said the same thing "make an offer"

agree with UWS. Market, if you can even call it that, in the early months of this year was totally broken. Volume way down any way you measure it - sequential periods, vs. same period 2009 year periods, vs. average of the same periods over several previous years, whatever. Now there seems to be some volume returning, at least compared to the early 2009 deep freeze. How that will all roll through and interact with any seasonal factors will be seen in the 2Q (next week or the week after) and 3Q (early October) market reports, but even then I think these will be more snapshots of a market in turmoil that real indicators of trend. As UWS notes, the steady trajectory (in either direction) is gone, probably for a while.

So, 1039 contratcs in the past 30 days with 10,734 total inventory = just over 10 months supply of inventory and not the 3-4 years some people like to throw around.

waverly - if those 30 days reflect the flurry of volume that brokers report (God forgive me for placing any stock in broker-speak!), and come during the historically high spring season, they can't be annualized. I don't see anyone calling for 12,000 sales on an annual basis. I think Noah at UD has some fairly recent posts on the impact of seasonality on the months of supply metric, and the dangers of misinterpreting same

"I hope columbia, marco, aboutready and nyc10022 crash and burn. They are hoping for everyone else to crash and burn so they can benefit" how will anyone benefit if the economy crashes and burns?"

Once again, SteveF doesn't seem to understand the difference between real estate and the economy (or the stock market). Mistakes like that are likely why he's up sh*t creek.

If RE crashes and burns, plenty benefit, including folks who just want a place to live. Those who lose are largely the speculators and the folks who bought what they couldn't afford. Yes, some collateral damage, but that swings both ways. But the brokers and shills deserve the hell they're getting.

waverly, I think those numbers are always half-assed - it's impossible to predict with much confidence. Like sidelinesitter, I highly doubt we'll see that inventory gone in 10 months, though I'd guess it's somewhere between that and the 3-4 years number that gets tossed around.

10022 - you need to reread the thread. SteveF's comment went up to "...so they can benefit" the linkage of real estate and the economy was in cc's reply.

Nothing left to buy? YOY residential RE stats irrelevant? Continuing rise in NYC unemployment levels not significant? Threat of market returning to March lows inconsequential? The impending implosion of NY state and city budgets not pertinent? My personal experience with the listings in which I've been interested has been very close to what Julia describes. There are still lots of very nice, very unsold properties on the market. The extent to which this "market heats up" meme is utterly divorced from the structural realities of the battered U.S. economy (which some say is the new normal) is really stunning.

oh, and steveF, please add me to your list of people who are hoping that real estate crashes and burns so that I can benefit. specifically i am hoping that i end up losing money on my 2003 purchase so i can double down on space cheaper. not sure it will get to that, but one can hope. I basically agree with the last paragraph of 10022's post above.

UD's charts have more new listings being added than contracts sold... for every week going back 6 months.

steveF, you can tack my name onto that list as well. It would be great to pick up another place on the cheap!