must read if you are a buyer or seller

You sure there is no compensation fund or funds? I mean, seriously. And then if there is no compensation fund, at least there should be a guarantee that the pepole who told you not to buy or not to sell wouldn't then TURN ON YOU which would not be fair. I really hope we can find a way to prevent someone from turning on people who didn't buy or didn't sell so that they aren't called idiots. Please I really hope we can find a way.

I tell you what: you want to make it bilateral and I'm up for it: anyone who picks out an apartment and decides not to buy it this month and the price goes up one year from the day of their declaration, I'll pay the difference, but if it goes down they pay me the difference.

that sounds like a product that AIG may want to offer institutionally.

As a buyer, this was not a must read. The simple answer for me is that sellers must accept reality and understand we are no longer in a boom market; that we have already come down to 05 prices and the longer they hold out, the cheaper those properties will be, not the other way around. On the other hand, if I find a property I love and the seller understands the current climate and is willing to be realistic, then I would not hesitate to buy. But until then, I ain't buying.

amyon who reads stuff here and is "freaked out" is an idiot to begin with.

OP is kinda simplistic and not very 'must read' at all if you ask me. All this buyer's talk of 'lowballing' and talk of seller's needing to accept new reality...no one has to do anything. It is a market and the market will set the terms.

30yrs_RE...that is the kind of post bears on here are obsessed with and I find beyond boring. Set aside investment RE which is another animal. Let's talk re: people wanting to find a home. Best price is a FACTOR--albeit an important one, but nothing more. There are externalities as an economist might say that factor significantly in buying a home and finding the exact moment of a bottom in the market doesn't address those other concerns. Bottom dollar price is nice, but comes at a cost that is hard to quantify. Putting your life on hold, renting when you don't like to, weekends of open houses instead of out enjoying yourself doing something enriching.... I'm sure there are others, like me, who wanted to get this RE thing over with. I figured out a budget I was comfortable with, have a very long time horizon, and didn't feel like waiting longer to create the perfect home: my customized layout, finishes, appliances, closets. Nice things that I didn't have to worry about 'fitting' into some unknown space when I moved. Market up. Market down. I don't really care. I was already in the market and sold, so I'm really just trading assets to a degree.

So now, I'm in a fantastic space I can live in for 20 years in a way that makes me very happy to come home at the end of the day. Who cares what its value is in one year or two or five if I can afford to live here now and into the future while maintaining an appropriate savings plan. Not everyone's goal is to die with the largest net worth possible. I'd rather spend a responsible amount while I'm alive and enjoy it.

Some, like Stevejhx, are happy renting. I'm not. And if you are like me, and crunch your numbers, living your life by market timing is silly. This isn't a bear or bull position. It is a quality of life position.

I bought last year, couldn't care less that maybe I could save money by having waited. I'm in an incredibly renovated home now that is perfect for me. I can afford it. It's in my budget.

kylewest.....here's a simple life formula.

time is limited (in this universe). Takes time to create $, $ = options, more options = more possibilities for happiness.

Some argue $ is not equal happiness.... it usually comes from someone with $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Congrats you've given up $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ = happiness (trimming and painting your "own" apt box).

In 2-5 yrs.. I will give up $ = happiness (trimming and painting my own apt)....thus giving me $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to have options of travel, eating, setting trust fund for kids, buying the 4 carat tiff for wife..... etc

30yrs..... simpletons are fun to see running around saying "it's hit $1000psf... I'm all IN, DOUBLE DoWN!!!!!.... Be warned, I stated there'd be a crazy bounce around these psycological #, 1000, 800, 750....

So many New Yorkers ends up screwing themselves up because they can't wait! They want instant gratification! They want RE prices to drop 50% in 1 year. Well, ain't gonna happen! Only the patient one will be rewarded.
If you make tons of money, what does it matter to buy a property that will loose 20% or 30% in a year or two?
But... if you're not born with a silver spoon in the ass, just graduated and start a carrier, have to pay back your school loan and are aware of the current economic situation surrounding you, overpaying your apt 30% is gonna cost you! It's gonna cost you a shit lot of money (excuse my french). Not retirement money, but just make your numbers real quick: A $600K apt selling for $420K in 2 years.You don't save $180K. You save $180K + the cost of the mortgage (around $140K), so tell me one thing. Are you willing to loose more than $300K on your investment just because you want the freedom to paint your freaking walls the color you want? You got to be kidding or you're just plain stupid and have no freaking clue how to manage your finances.

hammer em.. sledge....

You can't touch this! ericho69

The only thing sellers have to do is stay white, pay their taxes, and die.

I'm with Kyle on this, and I think he presents an excellent analysis of a reasonable approach to purchasing real estate.

Nothing ehrico ever posts is a "must read." For me everything he posts is a "must ignore."

i agree with evnyc and kylewest, but kylewest is in a position that many new york buyers are not in. many will still be buying properties that they will outgrow in a few years, or that are more than a bit expensive for their budget. that is a different barrel of monkeys altogether. i made a relatively stupid investment decision when i bought upstate, but at $360k for a huge house the downside was minimal and i was looking at it as a discretionary expense. for many entering the market here and now, that is not the case.

alpine, your last comment is convoluted at best, very disturbing at worst. maybe you should head over to the NJ property to enjoy a nice bbq?

We all agree that values are going to continue to go down.

30yrs and kylewest and I could've sold at the peak, paid our taxes, and waited for close to the bottom to get back in again. But we didn't. Not to speak for anyone else, but it's not comfortable to be always trading the asset in which you live. There're other assets more suited to jumping in and out of.

(w67street, see how this week I'm not beating myself up for not bailing. Back to normal next week.)

And sledgehammer, if I were in the position you cite, the $300K over the long term wouldn't bother me. This is NYC. It's no BFD.

The old Alpine everyone here is used to is GONE aboutready. So you guys better get used to the NEW Alpine. And I'm waring you: The new Alpine is going to say TONS of controversial things. Gone are the chains of the PC Police....

well, then alpine, bring your evil twin on. not selling is really starting to get to you, hon'. here's hoping you unload that albatross before you go ape-shit ballistic.

NWT, funny. and although i've done it frequently (i just counted it up, 14 "homes" in 23 years, although the first few years skew those numbers considerably, four places in less than two years in Tokyo alone), moving sucks, particularly with a family and/or as you get older and have more things that you care about. but for some of the first-time buyers i'm talking to, and for others who may unexpectedly face unemployment, that cash may matter. it's a case by case thing. i'm a bizarre case, now that i can afford to buy i don't care.

KW: well-said. NWT: my partner feels as you do, I feel a strange sense of exhilation every time we move. AR: you are in a very good long-term rental situation.

Since I arrived in NYC, I've moved every 2 years. Going on 3 in this place and feeling wanderlust.

10023, yes i am, and still i am in your camp a bit. the thrill of the move. we've been here for over five years, a personal best, and still i must actively resist moving. i have a bit more flexibility, because i'm not tied to the public school system. but i'll stay put because i know it's smart, even though i'd love to be further south, although not necessarily in a purchased apartment. my family has told me in no uncertain terms that we can't move to another rental, only to a purchased apartment, and i respect that so i'm "stuck" in this great rental deal.

I've spent two years bouncing, 12 rent-stabilized, and now 18 owning. Those two years without the burden of stuff, with a couple of suitcases and a couple of boxes, were great. Or so I think now. Much to be said for a new place, once the moving hassle is past.

What does someone like aboutready (heavily subsidized rental and able to game the system) have to say? This person is a rent stab for life or even generation, save for the NYC lawmakers come to their senses and end this shell trick of rent manipulation. What does she or he exactly want in here? To enlighten the great unwashed who'd otherwise make a decision aboutready disapproves? Mystery, I'm telling you.

kylewest, you are absolutely 100% right. If one is able to own and enjoy one's home, one wouldn't fret about hypothetical price changes.

where did you come from? go back there. now.

I'm not rent stabilized. And good lord, someone can't be intellectually interested in real estate and its issues if one doesn't want to purchase or buy in the near term? i've bought four properties, and sold three. i'm hardly someone "gaming" the system (although nice try at discrediting someone when you've been on here a day or so, and even if I were rent stabilized that would hardly discredit my ability to reason), but you're not the first nor i'm sure the last who will have troubles with my interest.

columbiacounty, who are you?

name, are you spunky?

Is this some sort of a barrack with hazing for newcomers?

Spunky? Meaning?...

Yes, for idiot newcomers who don't read for a while before throwing their misjudged oar in.

Ah, okay, I got it.
Enjoy your own undisturbed vapors.
Curtains.

although, NWT, had to have been reading for awhile to assume i'm RS. so doubly damned, reads but not well.

kylewest,
I absolutely agree with you *IF* you are in a position where you know you will be staying long term and have the ability to carry the space long term. Unfortunately, that describes fewer and fewer people who are purchasers of Manhattan RE. more typical is 10023 "Since I arrived in NYC, I've moved every 2 years. Going on 3 in this place and feeling wanderlust." I would say that just as I would take the 1 year bet on the downside, if you're talking about someone buying, taking a 30 year fixed and staying till it's payed off, I'd take the bet that the property would be worth more than today even if the market drops ANOTHER 70% short term.

To some extent I think this varies tremendously on location: someone buying a 4 BR colonial in some good neighborhood in NJ, LI, etc. with plans to raise a family and stay long term should look at the buy decision in a very different way than someone looking to buy a 600SF 1BR in Manhattan. But with the state of prices and the economy, I'm not sure there is a large percentage of the population who can, at the current pricing, etc. do that. i think for way too high a percentage of the population, they can not afford to buy the house they would stay in for that long term, are forced to move into "starter homes" of one sort or another, and then they do have to look at the things I'm talking about, because it will effect their quality of life for a fairly long period of time. I think that many people who will purchase what are "supposed to be" starter homes, which under "normal" circumstances they would live in for a few years and then move up once or twice till they got into the "final resting place", will in fact find themselves locked into those starter homes (or lose them and the equity they put into them) for significantly longer than they planned, and end up with a diminished quality of life as a result, in the same way as they could improve their quality of life with the punch list of items which you describe.

What I'm saying is that i don't think the majority of people can buy a place in the current climate and say "I'm in a fantastic space I can live in for 20 years in a way that makes me very happy to come home at the end of the day". If you can, then it's fine to buy, but that doesn't mean it's the market.

name.... wow... put some effort into it.. you're getting paid $10/hr for these little postings.... try..... nonameforyou.... how about... nameyourpricehere.... or the ever useful... nameswedontneednostinkingnames...

30yrs... nice nice nice analysis... 1600 hey.... hmmmmm ...... hmmmmm... very very impressive....

I like moving, but only within my zip code. It's not even that the apts don't suit our needs. It's a sort of cleansing. My partner does point out that we could just hire an organizer & a spring-cleaning team to get the same "clean" feeling.

Can someone clarify the rent stabilization?

trembling... in the "love" novels... I like the term "quivering" much better....

Do you get 2x for posting on the weekend? Matt only gives me 1.5x, but it's still $

2x what? what do you mean love novels?

i always hesitate to interpret w67th's comments, but i think here it's fairly obvious he means extra credit. i like words like rendered, and asunder, and rogue, and scalawag. not to mention ripped. i would consider some others, but i've been alerted to the fact that they're off limits. i always try to respect limits.

I'm sorry I have no idea what is being said.

overtime

even more on Sundays? let's see!

Open house going nuts this weekend in NYC.
Don't believe me? Call your broker.

"Folks,
There's been a lot of bickering between the 2 sides (bulls & bears), it seems like both group have their own set of agendas. Please don't let anyone on these boards influence your decision to buy or sell, i know it sounds corny but i known a few people that were completely freaked out by reading these boards a few months back.

Think about it...

If you decide to hold off on buying and the housing market recovers just a tad, would these posters compensate for your losses. The answer is a BIG NO. In a matter of fact, i'm sure these same poster will turn on you and start calling you an 'idiot' for listening to them.
Vice versa, if you are looking to sell and decide to hold off because of some of the bulls here and the market tanks in the 2nd half, the bulls would not compensate you for your losses neither.

Just a few thoughts before the big OPEN HOUSE THIS WEEKEND!!

ba ba ba booooYAH! "

So, let me get this right...

The idiots who said "buy now or be priced out forever" are going to pay back all the folks they screwed and lost lost their ENTIRE down payment (see what happens to 10% down when market loses 25%).

And did you just finally admit you are a broker?

The sad part here is that folks like you with the biggest agenda are the ones complaining about others' agenda.

For most of the bears here, being right seemed to be the only agenda. Turns out if a bear called you an idiot last year YOU SHOULD HAVE LISTENED.

Ericho, putzes like you cost a LOT of folks a LOT of money. Kind of ironic that you're going after the folks who could have prevented the devastation had they been listened to...

> Don't believe me? Call your broker.

I just called my broker. He said Manhattan real estate will go up forever. And its different here. And Wall Street will keep prices high.

Should I believe him?

Jesus, some people never learn.

NUTS!!
You have a broker! Congrats, you are one step closer to being a home owner.

i thought you said you were leaving? get going already.