jason10006 - Harlem crime stats

kspeak, the links are in the neighborhood profiles in the NYT real estate section -- you need to hit each zip code separately (note the pulldown after you bring up each particular neighborhood).

Differences probably arise from [at least] two factors:
1. NYT uses zips, while nymag states "each precinct"
2. NYT aggregates a broad range of crimes (specification linked somewhere), while nymag picks certain key crimes. Personal interpretation is important here. Do car break-ins bother you? Do you believe (as I do) that murders are almost always between people who know each other, rather than In Cold Blood situations? While nobody wants to be burglarized, do you have valuables that you fear will be stolen [I don't]?

I completely agree that the type of crime matters - I personally am not really worried about burgalries, etc. And I agree that almost all crimes happen between people who know eachother.

The one thing I would say is this: most of these crime stats are per X amount of residents. However, some neighbhorhoods clearly get a lot more foot traffic than others. So looking at things purely from the perspective of "crime rate per X residents" is a little misleading.

I happen to have it saved.

" A man was viciously stabbed in Greenwich Village yesterday -- the second violent incident in the area in several days, sparking anxious calls for an increased police presence.

Derek Brown, 41, who has a record of 23 arrests, was stabbed in the back and arm after he got into a heated argument with another man at West Fourth and Grove streets about 5:45 a.m., police sources said. ...."

http://www.nypost.com/seven/05182009/news/regionalnews/attack_alarms_village_169873.htm

Jason: This from today. And as said before, some zip codes in the West Village and Chelsea have noticeably higher crime rates than some zip codes north of 96th Street including where I live. Indeed, this attack happened in 10014 and the NYT real estate website shows the trailing 7 years average crime rate for this part of the village is as follows:

(100 = US average) (under “community profiles” at http://topics.nytimes.com/top/classifieds/realestate/locations/newyork/newyorkcity/manhattan/index.html )

Crime (10014 – West Village)
Total crime risk 213
Personal crime risk 316
Murder risk 190
Rape risk 88
Assault risk 343
Property crime risk 187
Burglary risk 167
Larceny risk 119
Motor vehicle theft risk 186

Jason: As you can see, a MUCH higher crime rate than 10035 or 10027 in East Harlem and Central Harlem. And this has been the case for about a decade now. And yet people, because I can only guess they have certain racial stereotypes, always ask me “is it SAFE up there?” I am a LOT safer in Harlem than if I lived in Gwyneth Paltrow’s building in the village, apparently. Or than I would be in Gramercy, Lincoln Square, the Meatpacking district, and Tribeca.

Crime (10027 – where I live, central Harlem)
Total crime risk 111
Personal crime risk 161
Murder risk 138
Rape risk 67
Assault risk 143
Property crime risk 102
Burglary risk 56
Larceny risk 96
Motor vehicle theft risk 111

Crime 10035 in East Harlem

Total crime risk 111

Personal crime risk 161

Murder risk 138

Rape risk 67

Assault risk 143

Property crime risk 102

Burglary risk 56

Larceny risk 96

Motor vehicle theft risk 111

__________________________________________

Now compare that to

Crime (meatpacking – 10011 straddling Chelsea and the West Village, and where DoubleClick is)
Total crime risk 141
Personal crime risk 218
Murder risk 140
Rape risk 85
Assault risk 221
Property crime risk 118
Burglary risk 97
Larceny risk 98
Motor vehicle theft risk 111

Crime (Lincoln Square – 10023)
Total crime risk 134
Personal crime risk 226
Murder risk 121
Rape risk 88
Assault risk 149
Property crime risk 95
Burglary risk 49
Larceny risk 84
Motor vehicle theft risk 109

Crime (Tribeca – 10007)
Total crime risk 117
Personal crime risk 162
Murder risk 151
Rape risk 43
Assault risk 207
Property crime risk 113
Burglary risk 47
Larceny risk 197
Motor vehicle theft risk 78

Crime (Soho – 10012)

Total crime risk 174
Personal crime risk 266
Murder risk 190
Rape risk 94
Assault risk 361
Property crime risk 146
Burglary risk 123
Larceny risk 116
Motor vehicle theft risk 137

Crime (Gramercy Park 10003)

Total crime risk 134
Personal crime risk 195
Murder risk 138
Rape risk 99
Assault risk 131
Property crime risk 123
Burglary risk 90
Larceny risk 74
Motor vehicle theft risk 138

I told you crime was going to go up people....

Oh, you silly boy.

Up which people?