Until recently, I was not an insider, but it is just amazing the data that is available on the price movements of apts in NYC on SE, specifically on a "line" in a particular building. Although 30yrs and some others disagree on what is the value of Sq. Ft. pricing and what is a comp, and the value of Case-Shiller vs. Sam Miller etc etc etc. I have come up with w67th's bubble analysis, that will... [more]
Until recently, I was not an insider, but it is just amazing the data that is available on the price movements of apts in NYC on SE, specifically on a "line" in a particular building. Although 30yrs and some others disagree on what is the value of Sq. Ft. pricing and what is a comp, and the value of Case-Shiller vs. Sam Miller etc etc etc. I have come up with w67th's bubble analysis, that will hopefully outline the bubble that we all just lived thru.
Whereas, in other parts of the country... where comps are very difficult, due to lot size, shape, elevation, proximity to highways, interior amenities etc etc etc... in Manhattan, the same line sale over the 2001 to current period really highlights the Bubble and its impact on our little island, nay the WORLD.
Here are the rules and format:
1) state the building (address, link, and the line you are analyzing;
2) List in historical order (date/asking price/sold price - (a little snippet of info or thoughts on that particular unit - not mandatory)
Finally, a witty or dry verbal analysis of the analyzed building. Also not mandatory, as i believe the data above will be illustrative enough.
I'll start.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
Though what about renovations vs. not? Views/light, etc.
In some ways, I think comps in suburban zips can be easier.
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Response by alanhart
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007
Definitely, especially housing tracts in Ohio that were all built at the same time, and come in the 3BR "Camelot" model, and the 4BR "Royalty" model. Or whatever. Trulia. Or whatever.
Check out the hillbilly from Texas on 12/14/07, came in over the top at $2.5MM, 14% above ask. 5D the oft talked about estate sale looked like almost a 50% discount to 8/4/08 unit sold at $2MM, and indeed sold above ask in this markt. 5D looks like a "smart" buyer until you realize :
10 West 66th Street #20D 3 beds
↓ $1,850,000
10 West 66th Street #16D 3 beds
↓ $1,850,000
and 5D has absolutely no view. Me thinkz either 20D and 16D can be had at 20% below current ask. both have been on the market for close to a year. 16D tried the hypenated listing trick (which I pointed out and got corrected ( i think it was yesterday :)). YES ericho75, that unit has been looking for a fool for the last 2 years and actually wanted, get this, $3.1MM.... must've gotten a hard on, when the Texan bought the 19D for $2.5MM. Enjoy....
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Response by spinnaker1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Isn't this exactly what we are doing with the IYDMM... threads? And who the hell is using your account ID anyway?? Sentences and words all proper like. I don't like it one bit I tell ya. Something smells..
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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
sorry, but the "-" means there was no data on SE. the first "-" is the actual closing price, the second "-" means actual listing price is missing.
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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
pls feel free to correct the layout.
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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
damn... not 50% more like 40%... gotta go...
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Response by spinnaker1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
..spoke too soon. I see we have one ericho, one hillbilly and finally one hard-on reference. OK its you..
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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
yes, spinniker1... like that.. but this is more a time line ( i really don't care too much about reno, views, just the psf) ... I'm trying to figure out will it bottom in 2003 prices or 2001 or 1999 or 1995. I think we are already at 2003/2004, so where do we end? I wish the data set went back to 1995... $300psf back then....
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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
For you spinnaker1.... "rectum"
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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
spin, there was a verb with a z, but that would be an easy stylism to poach. w67th, we don't need no stinkin' 1995 comps. A few of us ancients lived it, and while our memories may not be fresh as daisies, we can give it a pretty good shot. and your kindness to spinnaker does you proud.
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9885
Member since: Mar 2009
"Although 30yrs and some others disagree on what is the value of Sq. Ft. pricing and what is a comp, and the value of Case-Shiller vs. Sam Miller etc etc etc."
I hope it's clear that my main point of railing against all the averages (not just $PSF) is that the true analysis comes from doing just what you are suggesting here (with perhaps some added curveballs for value of view, renovation, seasonality, etc.)
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9885
Member since: Mar 2009
for 10 W 66th, 30D i have an initial list price of $1,595,000 9/2002, then taken off the market in the first half of 2003, back on market for #1,395,000 2/12/2004
Though what about renovations vs. not? Views/light, etc.
In some ways, I think comps in suburban zips can be easier.
Definitely, especially housing tracts in Ohio that were all built at the same time, and come in the 3BR "Camelot" model, and the 4BR "Royalty" model. Or whatever. Trulia. Or whatever.
1) 10 West 66th street http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/10-west-66-street-new_york
2)
05/25/2004 #30D $1,625,000 -
04/07/2005 #10D $2,040,000 -
04/28/2006 #32D $1,775,000 -
12/14/2007 #19D $2,500,000 +13.9% $2,195,000
05/20/2008 #16D - $2,995,000 ↓
08/04/2008 #12-D $2,000,000 -16.5% $2,395,000 ↓
03/06/2009 #5D $1,405,000 +8.1% $1,300,000 ↓
Check out the hillbilly from Texas on 12/14/07, came in over the top at $2.5MM, 14% above ask. 5D the oft talked about estate sale looked like almost a 50% discount to 8/4/08 unit sold at $2MM, and indeed sold above ask in this markt. 5D looks like a "smart" buyer until you realize :
10 West 66th Street #20D 3 beds
↓ $1,850,000
10 West 66th Street #16D 3 beds
↓ $1,850,000
and 5D has absolutely no view. Me thinkz either 20D and 16D can be had at 20% below current ask. both have been on the market for close to a year. 16D tried the hypenated listing trick (which I pointed out and got corrected ( i think it was yesterday :)). YES ericho75, that unit has been looking for a fool for the last 2 years and actually wanted, get this, $3.1MM.... must've gotten a hard on, when the Texan bought the 19D for $2.5MM. Enjoy....
Isn't this exactly what we are doing with the IYDMM... threads? And who the hell is using your account ID anyway?? Sentences and words all proper like. I don't like it one bit I tell ya. Something smells..
sorry, but the "-" means there was no data on SE. the first "-" is the actual closing price, the second "-" means actual listing price is missing.
pls feel free to correct the layout.
damn... not 50% more like 40%... gotta go...
..spoke too soon. I see we have one ericho, one hillbilly and finally one hard-on reference. OK its you..
yes, spinniker1... like that.. but this is more a time line ( i really don't care too much about reno, views, just the psf) ... I'm trying to figure out will it bottom in 2003 prices or 2001 or 1999 or 1995. I think we are already at 2003/2004, so where do we end? I wish the data set went back to 1995... $300psf back then....
For you spinnaker1.... "rectum"
spin, there was a verb with a z, but that would be an easy stylism to poach. w67th, we don't need no stinkin' 1995 comps. A few of us ancients lived it, and while our memories may not be fresh as daisies, we can give it a pretty good shot. and your kindness to spinnaker does you proud.
"Although 30yrs and some others disagree on what is the value of Sq. Ft. pricing and what is a comp, and the value of Case-Shiller vs. Sam Miller etc etc etc."
I hope it's clear that my main point of railing against all the averages (not just $PSF) is that the true analysis comes from doing just what you are suggesting here (with perhaps some added curveballs for value of view, renovation, seasonality, etc.)
for 10 W 66th, 30D i have an initial list price of $1,595,000 9/2002, then taken off the market in the first half of 2003, back on market for #1,395,000 2/12/2004