Prelude to a kiss

well, we disagree on where the market is headed, but that is hifnglarious.

The six month-trend may shed some light on what's going on, because the current convergence of the red and blue lines recalls an even more dramatic convergence in December - the end of another weird selling season that was marred by Lehman.

The simplest explanation is that, as a selling season wanes, the sales cycle reaches its conclusion on a relatively high number of properties - hence fewer new listings, more new contracts. So the convergence itself is no surprise. The bad news for sellers is that the lines never actually crossed in December, and they haven't crossed yet. In other words, even at the points when seasonality would most strongly favor a real decline in inventory, contracts still don't outnumber new listings. Visible inventory may fall, but only because properties are pulled from the market. Most of them are likely to return, and many of the properties that do sell - especially new construction - will be replaced on the market by shadow inventory from the same developers.

Spin?
You bought an apartment and turned into a bull!
Are you a Republican yet?
I looked a the chart. So now your also Maria Bartaloma trying to divine inspiration from every dip and blip of every piece of data. Well, the chart speaks for itself. Contracts are signing and the inventory flow has diminished...no question. The question is in the analysis. 7 months of freaking out creates a fair amount of demand. This is the endish of 'high season' so what follows is the test of true market conditions. Is this not the traditional time to see increase activity? Have not many of these prices been chopped? The Summer is upon us. This is the time that bears wade in salom rich streams feeding off the optomistic swimmers heading against currents toward their eventual dimise. Maybe it's not bulls and bears you see but, bears and salmon. Those salmon sure do look determined.
Check out the mirror...starting to look a little sock-eyed?

Did you buy on UWS?

Spawning season is over falco. There's nothing but rotting carcasses left for the bears to eat. Let them get a little shut eye. They need to rest on the promises of the next run.

I most certainly did 10023 : ) Now I feel more inclined to wax poetic.

I lost track of who bought what where. I'm a transplant, but I've lived on the UWS for 11 years (only 2 away from longest tenure anywhere). Congratulations again. Not long before you'll be collecting paint chips and personalizing your space. I finally gave in and bought myself the full BM fan deck of colors.

Werner Herzog made a film about this, starring Timothy Treadwell as the reluctant lover.

Yep, just me and about 100 others this past month on the UWS. Misery loves company I guess... Thanks '23. We have A TON or work ahead but we're well equipped for it.

spinnaker1, congratulations! Something tells me you're my neighbor.

Well done at the top, spinn. Well done.

beholder... my neighbor now, or neighbor to be?

Is it your instinct, intuition, or are you a blood relative of West81st?

spinnaker1: I was just ticked off because your second set of hints meant my original guess was wrong. I'm over it. Congrats again, and best of luck with the rest of the deal.

hehehe... I think you will be surprised. In due course, of course.

Aw, give us a clue. 10023/24 or 25? You know what would surprise me? If you bought in LT, as you seemed set on prewar.

LT, now THAT'S FUNNY!!! OK, 24. Now I'm really in trouble.

I don't see the kiss.. but if squint your eyes.. it looks like a penis (left to right w/ the right portion being the head) ?

Am I crazy or can others see this ? :)

Congrats, Spinn.... but my chartist friends say... never buy into the tip of a penis chart.... it's a no no....

What's wrong with LT..... me loves the parking out front......

Ha! Good stuff. Welcome to the hood, Spin. 10024 rocks. Just painted a 12 x 18 room (1 coat prime, 1 coat paint) with the Ben Moore Natura product this wknd - took 4 hours end to end and looks fantastic. Zero VOC and virtually odorless, DC was in there next morning. Can't believe people pay $800 or more to get rooms painted!

The trend is indisputable and trumps any thread with anecdotal cherry picking (see "Our Favorite Price Choppers"). Not bullish, but deals are happening.

Of course you buy into the tip, it's where all the action is and the point from which all life begins. Over to the left are the nuts (nutz?) and over to the right.... well, no thank you. I wish you and your friends good luck with all THAT.

And the kiss is not really important anyway. It was just a diversionary tactic used to implant the toxic poison from the plant. Like the bear in the story, if you let yourself be seduced you'll be running for the john where the only paper available is the BF's stuffed in your pants.

; )

OTNYC... love to see some bull about renovating!!! My "200k reno" will come in at 1/3. To say why would be revealing a little too much. But I can't wait. And thanks for the welcome.

spinnaker1...that was great....

Agree with using low VOC paint. I've been using Aura for the last 3 years.

I buy so much paint & supplies from Beacon paint on Amsterdam that they greet me by name when they see my caller ID :) Great for buying in smaller quantities, they'll give me a discount off their list. Delivery is free and fast, so saves me time and money in cabs schlepping.

I'm so addicted to renovation that I would love to help you pick out stuff, spinnaker.

spinnaker1, now, and in spirit (i.e. zip code). And no relative of West81, blood or other. Wouldn't dare.
Can't wait for your renovation stories. I promise no peaking.

re the cherrypicking, not to minimize the work necessary in following apartment histories, it's not that tough. i get bored of it, because you have to keep two or three threads going, keep track of a bunch of numbers, and copy and paste a lot. but i reject most price cuts that i see as uninteresting, despite the percentage or number.

i'm going to start renovating the money pit upstate this year. talk about folly. i really know how to waste more than a few dollars.

Some of the more satisfying moments of my life have been at the end of a hammer. Though that is not my chosen field, it always seems to call me back. I have built a log home and renovated many others. I even built custom furniture for a few years. But this will be my first apartment (and co-op board) so I will no doubt be looking to tap into the knowledge pool here. Perhaps us renovators can organize and share ideas, stories, sources etc etc.

did you see kylewest's renovation thread? it was great.

Kyle is definitely a great resource and poster. As for the coop thing, totally depends on the building. We were in a non-DM walkup coop on the east side and gut-renovated the kitchen and bathroom ourselves evenings and weekends. The board knew but didn't stop us. Current building was a little more formal and had us put together diagrams and pay for an architect's review, but stopped short of requiring filing with the City (costly). Really luck of the draw - if you have a difficult board, it will be slower. But ultimately, renovations benefit the building, the tenants and the shareholder value, so ultimately they all get passed and go through.

Seriously, renovating myself is more or less my middle name. I'd really really love to have a semi-pro conversation about it. Really.

So we have some closet contractors among us. beholder, OTNYC, nyc10023, aboutready, others? I assume all of us have at least some interest in talking about it further. Any ideas on how to use this forum to organize each individual project so it doesn't get too muddy?

Just a thought here:

To share your project start your own thread and call it "THE insert name here RENO" That will keep it all somewhat organized and easy to search. I won't start yet because I seem to be in a permanent holding pattern but I would love to discuss with anyone else who is. If we can organize and hold it together I can see some real benefits.

I would be happy to attend a get-together (similar to the earlier Wine & Roses meet-up) for interested parties: those who have renovated, those planning to renovate, etc. to have a beer and share stories. Will also post as much as possible, but business is finally picking up...

Spin, you ought to be penning lusty romance novels for a living. Quite the market for them!

evnyc - I'm torn. Don't know whether to focus on construction or lusty novels. Actually I'm in the middle of a book, non-fiction and not much lust (yet).

OTNYC - I'm there if we can manage to generate some interest.

Spin, the clear solution is: lusty romance novels ABOUT construction workers! Voila!

And good luck with the book! I have a couple unpublished sitting on computers that will (deservedly) never see the light of day, so I know it's work.

spinnaker...i'd buy your "lusty"romance novel. let's know when it'll be in the bookstores.