Skip Navigation
StreetEasy Logo

BUY IN 4TH QUARTER 09 or KEEP RENTING?

Started by kkfred
over 16 years ago
Posts: 8
Member since: Mar 2009
Discussion about
After reading the thread "How much apt can you afford?" I just got pretty nervous about our plan to buy in the 4th Quarter. We live in a cramped (700 sqft) 1 BR apartment and our lease is up March 1, 2010. The plan was to start putting in bids and have an accepted offer by Oct/Nov and Close by Jan/Feb. We were actually considering an all cash bid - about 50% of our savings. Our combined base incomes is only 200k (the bulk of what we earn is in bonuses). We currently pay $3660 for our apartment. The thought of living there another year is not an option. Do you think we should buy in Q4 or bump up to a 2Br rental in our building for about 5k per month thru March 2011?
Response by alpine292
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

$3660 for a 1 bedroom apt.? Damn! Your being taken to the cleaners by your landlord! And at $5k a month for a 2 bedroom, it is likely that your new landlord would take you to the cleaners as well. In your situation I would buy because landlords seem to be taking advantage of you.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by kkfred
over 16 years ago
Posts: 8
Member since: Mar 2009

I know. It was my fiancee's apartment and then I moved in. I never would have agreed to the price. However, to help sound like less of a fool - the apartment is XXX Mint it has every possible amenity, garage, we are on the 25th floor with insane views and is in a very good location, convenient for our work commute.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by malthus
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009

You have a few months to make that decision -- if prices fall to a range you find acceptable then buy. I was in the same situation and decided to get a bigger rental -- in the end you have to decide whether the extra move is worth the extra space or amenities (or lower price) you could get down the line. In addition you can do better renting than you been.

Note that this is based on my assumption of further declines in prices from March/April 09. I am pretty comfortable with that assumption.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by lad
over 16 years ago
Posts: 707
Member since: Apr 2009

We're in very much the same boat -- reluctant to pay $4,500 - $5,000 for a 2BR (and that's what they're still renting for in Chelsea/the Village) but at the same time very hesitant to buy. Getting a 20% discount on our cramped one bedroom convinced us to stay another year (albeit begrudingly) because neither of the alternatives appealed to us.

Next year I think we will bite the bullet one way or another. If we can't what we want (2 bed, 1.5 bath with outdoor space, non-galley kitchen, and W/D) in our target neighborhood at our target price, we'll probably continue to rent just to avoid the higher transaction costs of buying and eventually selling something we're not totally sold on. I am very reluctant to compromise on anything when buying, especially when anticipating a relatively flat market and (min.) 5-to-7-year break-even point.

If you're tempted to buy because living in a one-bedroom apartment has driven you crazy -- and, trust me, I can relate all too well -- just keep in mind that buying something that doesn't suit you for the long-term can be a $100k+ mistake.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by kkfred
over 16 years ago
Posts: 8
Member since: Mar 2009

Lad: Even more of the same boat than you knew. We are in Chelsea, and our current rent is a %15 percent discount given when we resigned in March. A 5-7 year break even point (we were thinking 4-5) really makes buying this year make NO SENSE because we can not afford more than a 2Br/2Ba or a small 3Br/2Ba in the areas we want, and in 5-7 years we could very likely have 2-3 young children and will be more than cramped once again. I think we need to seriously consider renting another year at least and continue saving our cash.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by julia
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007

Rent, Rent, Rent

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by Mhillqt
over 16 years ago
Posts: 405
Member since: Feb 2007

I live in a 400 sq ft rent stabilized apt in murray hill paying $1200 per month..its a studio(loft) in a brownstone.....I missed the boat in 1996 with cheap apts and if i dont buy in the next yeear or so, i will be living in a rented studio when i turn 50.......not sure which is more depressing ...turning 50 in a rental OR turning 50 in an expensive overpriced coop......MAKES ME LOST SLEEP AT NIGHT LOL

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

what's done is done. i wish i had bought microsoft when they finally got windows to work...think it was windows 3.0. i wish i had dumped merrill lynch stock when it was 70 instead of waiting till it was 10. so be it.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by OTNYC
over 16 years ago
Posts: 547
Member since: Feb 2009

Yeah, but you can't compare stock to a roof over your head. I don't know why people insist on comparing real estate transactions to investment plays. They are not the same thing! Your home is your castle, and you should aim to own only 2 or 3 in your lifetime: your starter home, the home where you raise your family, and the home you retire in. If you are lucky, they will all be the same. If you are of means, then factor in a vacation property.

For the record, $1200 for a studio is not a spectacular deal. My g-friend at the time had a $256 rent controlled studio (inherited from family member) in NoLita - that was a deal worth keeping, but at $1200?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by Mhillqt
over 16 years ago
Posts: 405
Member since: Feb 2007

well the studio is in murray hill brownstone steps from park avenue...great location....for years it was a good deal but now that rents are coming down...not as much...but still i think a pretty good deal...

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by OTNYC
over 16 years ago
Posts: 547
Member since: Feb 2009

Market rate for comparable studio is probably $1800 - $2000, so yes, 33-40% off market is a good deal. And if you're happy there, then by all means take advantage of the discount. I would personally lose my mind in a studio, living like a college student.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by CarolSt
over 16 years ago
Posts: 361
Member since: Jun 2009

"I don't know why people insist on comparing real estate transactions to investment plays. They are not the same thing! Your home is your castle, and you should aim to own only 2 or 3 in your lifetime"

I agree. So few understand this.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by CarolSt
over 16 years ago
Posts: 361
Member since: Jun 2009

"And if you're happy there, then by all means take advantage of the discount. I would personally lose my mind in a studio, living like a college student."

As someone mentioned in an earlier thread.
"Live a little."

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

tell that to the baby boomers who just saw the value of their largest assets collapse.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by alpine292
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

I would not consider a 10-15% drop in value a "collapse."

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

check out 490 wea thread...appears to be closer to 30% drop. or in that case $600 K. lot of money however you look at it.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by NYCDreamer
over 16 years ago
Posts: 236
Member since: Nov 2008

There have been multiple threads and arguments of the risk/ reward value to rent vs buy. Some think that an equal rental is $1,000 to #2,000 cheaper per month than owning. Others say it's the reverses and you can save $1,000 to $2,000 month by owning. (through tax advantages) So there could be $12,000 to $24,000 difference depending on which side you take.

I think this is small change compared to market direction. If you believe the market is going down say another 15% to 30% and you're buying a million dollar place than you're going to lose $150,000 to $300,000 over the next couple of years. This is real money compared to the $12K to $24K on the rent vs buy. Bottom line if you think the market is going down you should not buy.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

lets say combined income is 800K= 480 k after taxes. two kids in private school 80 K; apt 120 K; vacations 40 K; general living 120K means net of 120 K and that's real high. and that assumes you maintain the 800K and all the grief that goes with it. 600K loss wipes out 5 years of your financial life. 5 years. alpo---i know you've never been there but trust me that would suck.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

See how the market is in a few months, and if it seems stable and you see something you love within your budget, consider buying. If the market looks like it is dropping fast, hold off.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

alpine, i was referring to all baby boomers, not just those in Manhattan, but i'd argue with your number there as well.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

aboutready, what is your point about the baby boomers? I assume you are talking about those recently retired or near retirement. The value of their homes just took a hit. Unless they were dependent on home equity for spending money, how badly are they affected? If they don't plan to move, they are still ok. If they planned to sell and move, whatever they buy will also have come down in price. If they planned to sell, then rent and keep some of cash to live off, I guess they would be affected, but there are too many scenarios for you to make a blanket statement about baby boomers like that.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

LIC, all i am pointing out is that it is indeed an investment. many baby boomers have been relying on that appreciation as part of their retirement planning. you can't tell me that there aren't large numbers of people who have had housing turn into a bad "investment" who were not speculators and flippers. unemployment, retirement, all sorts of scenarios can turn your home into a nightmare.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

Some people rely on their homes as an investment much more than others. If you never want to get caught being unemployed in a down real estate market, you would never buy a home. If people planned for their retirement smartly, a decline in the value of their homes would not have affected them as badly as you make it out.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

LIC, incomes have been stagnant for years, prices have not. most people would not have assumed that scenario and would have been hard pressed to anticipate it and plan for it. i'm happy to go find the statistics on the number of people with adequately funded pension plans, but i'm sure you're quite aware that the numbers are horrendous.

many, many people never should have bought. even if it was within their means at the time. and a growing number of experts are challenging our "ownership" society.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by streakeasy
over 16 years ago
Posts: 323
Member since: Jul 2008

The tax advantage is going to get sliced with the 28% cap on the deduction with higher income levels. I'd say that it is more likely the pct cap gets lowered even more than less likely.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

lic---are you twelve years old? would you really characterize the last 2 1/2 years as a "down real estate market?" Do you have a 401K? How much have you lost in the 18 months as a percentage? Trillions of dollars have evaporated and you're talking about planning smartly for your retirement?

Up until recently, planning smartly for retirement meant socking away as much as you could firsts in your 401K and then in general savings and allocating that money amongst stocks, bonds and cash depending on your age. Planning smartly has resulted in losses of around 30 to 40 % -- money that cannot be reasonably recouped if you are over the age of 45 not to mention if you lose your job.

Grow up.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by scoots
over 16 years ago
Posts: 327
Member since: Jan 2009

I don't think his rent sounds that expensive? It seems like market.

I guess it really depends on how much you are looking to spend and how long you intend to stay here.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by Rhino86
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

I was in your boat last summer.... And renting for $5000/month is a lot better than paying $1.1mm for something now worth $850k.

Alpine - where do you get that things have only fallen 10-15%. My buddy just sold his one bed for what he paid for it in early 2004. Still a moron after all these years.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

and i assume he thought of that as a loss because a couple of years ago he was anticipating a big gain?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

Don't get upset because other people handled their finances well. Baby boomers who are at or near retirement and who planned smartly should have had the bulk of their retirement assets in low-risk investments. Most people who have defined benefit plans are doing ok. Some people will be in better shape than others.
Also, we were not talking about losses in investment accounts, we were talking about declines in home values.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

so...tell me about how risky GM bonds looked two years ago? better yet, park avenue real estate? or Bank of America stock? what percentage of people other than government workers do you think have defined benefit plans?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

and while you're at it...tell us about all the unfunded municipal pension liabilities across the country. who is going to fork over the billions to make good on all those promises?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by sledgehammer
over 16 years ago
Posts: 899
Member since: Mar 2009

LIC, NY baby boomers who bought before 1997 didn't necessarily planned their retirement well. The RE bubble took care of that for them provided they sold by now. It was just a matter of being at the right place at the right time. Now they can leave rich and let the Generation X deal with all the bullshit! Talk about getting screwed here!

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by drdrd
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1905
Member since: Apr 2007

-and of course everyone is an investment whiz like LIC so everybody's in great shape!

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

You think that having the bulk of your retirement assets in GM bonds or Park Avenue real estate is responsible investing?
Government workers are a significant percentage of the population. Do I really have to tell you this?

The original discussion resulted from a comment that the person can't stand staying in a studio any longer. Someone set to get out and live a little, and ar said to tell that to the baby boomers who just saw their largest assets collapse. I am pointing out that ar is overstating things quite a bit.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

who said the bulk? answer my questions. were GM bonds considered risky? what percent of the population are covered by defined benefit plans? who is going to cover the shortfall for municipal pensions?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by sledgehammer
over 16 years ago
Posts: 899
Member since: Mar 2009

and Mhillqt , sorry to be tuff on you but if in the last 50 years the best you have managed for yourself is a studio rental , you must be pretty bad at managing your assets and there is no evident reason why it will change tomorrow. Keep renting! Your decision to buy to satisfy a dream may just end costing you whatever you saved for your retirement.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

nice...that's a pretty cheap shot...poster expresses concern at his/her own behavior and you pile on. very helpful....terrific insight.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by alpine292
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

"lets say combined income is 800K= 480 k after taxes. two kids in private school 80 K; apt 120 K; vacations 40 K; general living 120K means net of 120 K and that's real high. and that assumes you maintain the 800K and all the grief that goes with it. 600K loss wipes out 5 years of your financial life. 5 years. alpo---i know you've never been there but trust me that would suck."

Where did you get those numbers from, your ass? Since when does private school cost $40k a year for one child? $40k a year for vacations? I highly doubt that. And the $600k loss in property vlaue means nothing since we have no idea what the apt. is worth. $1 million? $2 million? $3 million?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

you moron:

here is tuition for Horace Mann in Riverdale:

Tuition Schedule 2009-2010 Academic Year

Nursery Division
Threes Program 2 1/2 Days $24,440
Threes Program Full Days $34,050
Fours Program $34,050
Kindergarten $34,050
Lower Division
Kindergarten to Fifth Grade $34,050
Middle Division
Sixth to Eighth Grades $34,050
Upper Division
Ninth to Twelfth Grades $34,050

so...$34 K + books, spending money, clothing, tutors, college prep course etc = $40K easily.

alpo baby: people who make this kind of money expect to take reasonably expensive vacations in nice places...not in NJ. 600 K loss was based on 490 WEA 9B comped with 3 B long string from urban digs.

work on your bathroom skills and minivan manuveurs.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by alpine292
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008

Why the hell would you want to send your kids to private school all the way in Riverdale when you can send them to PS6 for free?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by sledgehammer
over 16 years ago
Posts: 899
Member since: Mar 2009

Look! I'm convinced owning is not for everybody. Too many people decide to own and do not realize the side costs associated to being an owner ( Re tax/ increasing maintenance etc...), they just look at the sell price and think they can afford on the moment but don't factor the risks associated to being an owner vs renting.
I have the exemple of a close member of my family who decided to buy they house he dreamed off, and even if it was before the RE boom, he ignored the chances to sell it at peak price when he could and even though the house is now paid off, the mortgage was paid off in full because of an inheritance money. I must say that that member of my family always lived large and barely saved for his retirement. This person is now 63 years old, and the only retirement money available is sitting on the house. While he could have managed his financed otherwise, he didn't want to listen. Now he still has to work to pay the maintenance /heat/electricity of the house and i can't see him anytime close to retire since there is no retirement money available unless he sells the house.
Even if i find that case to be quiet disastrous, the best way to look at it, is that the property is paid in full. I can't even imagine how disastrous it would be if he didn't inherit any money to close the mortgage and would still be indebted to the bank.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by sledgehammer
over 16 years ago
Posts: 899
Member since: Mar 2009

Not only that, but since prices have started to drop, he spends all the money he earns to renovate the house hoping that it will minimize the loss due to the plummeting market. I believe when you're 63 years old, the money you're still making shall not be spend as a whole on your house like he does.
Hence my strong belief: Owning is NOT for everyone!

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by Mhillqt
over 16 years ago
Posts: 405
Member since: Feb 2007

sledge my only mistake was that i didnt predict the HUGE real estate boom post 1998...i was overcautious because i had a cheap murray hill stabilized rental....but by no means have i squandered my $$.....im a SAVER and since im a conservative investor, didnt lose much in the market either this year......ive had some health issues and i was convinced that i wouldnt be able to keep on working....but that worked itself out......its not always as clearcut as it seems....

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Actually, LIC, I don't think i'm overstating things quite a bit. I'd bet if you asked most people 57 and older they'd tell you they are scared out of their minds. A few may have planned properly, but most? And now to find that the one thing they thought they could rely upon isn't reliable in the slightest? Think. Just think. How would you feel, what would you do, if you thought at all in such circumstances? Some are deep in denial, but i doubt they will be for much longer. The others are wondering what the fuck they are going to do to survive.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by w67thstreet
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

cat food... the fear of all retirees....

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by falcogold1
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008

Mhillqt,
Predict the post 1998 RE boom? Don't kick yourself it was difficult to predict. After the dot.com implosion RE had kicked it up quite a bit. RE was due to a correction post NASDAQ but the Fed did something that was hard to predict. Dropping interest rates and holding them there for such a long time period in conjunction with legislative demands for more relaxed lending policies and patterns ursurped what should have been an organic correction in NY RE pricing. In stead, as we all know, it led to the runaway train. So now we have the organic correction that dates almost 15 years in the making. This more that any other reason is the main argument for waiting.
People who don't believe in timing are losers...end of story.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by Mhillqt
over 16 years ago
Posts: 405
Member since: Feb 2007

i think if i were 25 or 30...i would wait 5 more years....but at close to 50 yrs old waiting 5 more years doesnt give me that many years of enjoying it.....plus im in a studio...time to growup into a 1 bed......

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by sledgehammer
over 16 years ago
Posts: 899
Member since: Mar 2009

Mhillqt, your reasoning is twisted. In a year or two, you may afford a 1Bd for the same price of a studio today. I'm pretty sure prices will stay flat once we've hit a bottom. Where's the rush? Plus, as Mortgage rates are likely to increase, it will push down prices even more. You can eventually refinance when mortgage rates eventually lower. But if you decide to buy now at peak price-15%, it doesn't matter where the mortgage rates go, you will have paid a shit lot of money for your apt with very little chance to profit over its resale. Bubble prices never come back after a burst.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Mhillqt, give up preconceptions. or whatever. i'm 46 and back to renting, and sometimes it bothers me, but less and less i might add.

i don't blame you for wanting to move on, but FOR GOD SAKE'S MAN, you've gone this far, what the hell will a year or two matter? If it works, then you can feel great. If it doesn't, you can feel happy you didn't do it. And when you do bite the bullet, just budget for the 15 year rather than the 30 year. if rates increase, the relative value of the 15 year should jump significantly.

bottom line, no hurries. and i don't blame you for losing sleep. i'm very much a committed bear, and sometimes i wonder as well.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by dwell
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

Mhillqt,

why not wait 2 yrs before you buy, see how the market shakes out & move to a nicer rental apt now?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by dwell
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

cc & ar: excellent points.

private school is akin to college tuition; PS6 does not compare to HM.

Agree AR: that demographic is scared shiteless.

W67: mmrrow

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

i'm not quite there (demographic wise) and have been pretty lucky financially.

I'm scared shitless.

Actually, I think there are and going to be incredible opportunities for some, but cannot understand how many, many people are going to continue to make a living. By way of example, if half the malls in the country were shut down tomorrow, it wouldn't make much difference to anyone except those who work there. And what jobs would come along to replace the mall jobs?

I suspect that formula could be applied to most industries/companies and is starting to happen. I don't buy this crap about the replacement level of cars causing a spike in demand. We have too much of everything but short of some type of planned economy (yes matt I am a commie!) I just don't see how we can work this out without major, major disruption and pain.

Trying to find a way to wrap this up on a more positive note.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by Mhillqt
over 16 years ago
Posts: 405
Member since: Feb 2007

yes......i know...1 or 2 more yrs wont matter.....esp since ive waited so long for the market to come down....would be foolish to wait all this time and then not wait a 1 or 2 more years when its actually going down...My parents are elderly and I dont feel i have much time left with them....they want to see me settled in a nice apt....and i want to share that with them.....so im fearful that waiting i might miss that oppty......im 48 and will be 50 in 2 yrs.....but if i see a steal now....i might grab it!So many factors to consider.......

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Mhillqt, we are not far from your age. As a retirement vehicle wouldn't want, at (y)our age to do anything less or more than a 15-year mortgage. Explain to mom and dad that you might have a nice dining nook that could double as a place for a sofabed if you wait. You seem lovely, but your parents' desires to see you settled? not so good necessarily.

I'll just repeat for fun, in 1995 i bought a small two bedroom for $105K, sold for around $400k in 2000ish. how much do you think values have truly increased? where do you think the retirees are.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by dwell
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

cc: I'm scared shitless too. it further pisses me that people in our socio economics are being milked tax wise to fill the gaps.

Heard a news story yesterday re: maybe it was a mistake to export so many jobs & manufacturing: geeez, ya think? Also read that Europe is moving to the rite & we're moving to the left.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by djradon
over 16 years ago
Posts: 74
Member since: Jun 2008

sledgehammer (re, your snap judgements about Mhillqt): Holding down any place in nyc for over 10 years is worthy of respect, and paying $1200 to live in Murray Hill at age 50 sounds pretty sweet to me. Maybe instead of the prudent pursuit of wealth, Mhillqt has found himself pursuing other worthwhile paths or overcoming obstacles. Who are you to judge him? Who cares how much money he's saved? He deserves an apology. Which I guess you kind of gave in advance. But still.

falcogold1: People who can afford it might not care about timing. people can have bad timing without being losers. when i try to time the stock market, i'm wrong an uncomfortable amount of the time. i believe in timing though. i also believe being able to take advantage of opportunities is more important than timing, because there are always opportunities. still, your "partial history of the correction" is so icy and pithy, you have made me feel a little bad to be in contract.

aboutready: work until they die? move to a commune in Costa Rica? move in with friends/family? they will be getting social security, after all. reducing your expectations is hard and there's a lot to be scared of here in the early 21st century, but things would have to get pretty dark before survival become an issue. we are a pretty adaptable species.

M: turning 50 in a rental isn't at all depressing. turning 50 in a recently-purchased "expensive overpriced coop" sounds miserable. I think there's at least a 70% chance that prices will decline another 20% or more, and a 70% chance we'll see no appreciation in the next five or more years. In my humble opinion, hold on to your downpayment, try to stop thinking about real estate and streeteasy, and start planning a birthday celebration.

columbiacounty: i wouldn't even call 50% off peak (stevejhx's official prediction?) a collapse either, given the correction everyone knows we needed. FWIW, I think there's a 10% chance we'll see something i would call a collapse and a 5% chance we'll see the end of civilization in my lifetime, but prefer to stay optimistic and not entertain the cataclysm scenarios.

aboutready: i love it when you show your vulnerable side!

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

actually djradon, i'm not sure of what you speak. i'm feeling happy and saucy about my investment decisions. and overwhelmingly still in love in my personal ones. and recently i've begun to wonder if our economy has enough juice for even a real commodity bubble. we'll see. i'm looking at the evidence and seeing a near depression, if not now, in the next year of so.

and i think, very much so, that you are discounting the personal pain of many, who will adapt but not so well and certainly not in the manner that our fearless leaders would like us to believe. and have all but promised.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

ar, of course you don't think you are overstating it. Do you think I don't know anyone age 57 or older? I do have parents, and they have friends, and I have friends with parents, etc. None of them are scared senseless. For the most part, they have paid off their homes or are close to doing so, after many, many years of ownership, they have conservative retirement accounts, and they are enjoying life.

What if MHill can't afford the higher payments of a 15-year? You throw around that advice like everyone can just afford everything. You just seem a bit out of touch.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by dwell
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

"he personal pain of many, who will adapt but not so well and certainly not in the manner that our fearless leaders would like us to believe. and have all but promised."

Yup. 70 & 80 yr olds looking for jobs.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

huh?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

mhill, why don't you wait 10 or 15 years, keep living in a cramped studio, and lock a mortgage after rates go back up to 6.5-7%? Sounds great. If it were me, I would see if the economy and real estate market seems more stable later this year, would be patient in looking for places, and if I found a place that was comfortably in my budget and that I really liked, I would consider buying. If the market looks like it is going to hell, hold off and see how things look in another year.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by dwell
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

elderly people who lost 30%-40% of their retirement & now seek jobs because they haven't enough to live on.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

LIC, really? well i know many people who are very scared. you think i'm a bit out of touch? really? and you, the great promoter of real estate, isn't WAY out of touch? i have friends who bought three years ago, five years ago, all of whom are wondering what the hell they are going to do. and i have friends whose parents are wondering the same thing.

wonderful that your small insular world has no such concerns,

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by sledgehammer
over 16 years ago
Posts: 899
Member since: Mar 2009

Mhillqt, I reckon my first call on you was bit harsh, but i hope after reading my subsequent posts you understood that i am only wishing you do not make the same mistake as my family member and hopefully make a sensible decision that's not going to jeopardize your retirement.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by djradon
over 16 years ago
Posts: 74
Member since: Jun 2008

ar, you said "what would you do" (if you were in the situation of many 57+ers). these were honest suggestions. i hope and expect i can work till i die. (although i also hope to go into and out of retirement a few times.) my grandpa worked until he died last year at 85 and my grandma still runs the office when she's not wintering in Arizona.

I'm not saying there won't be pain, but these nyc property owners will probably manage a better standard of living than 99% of humans throughout history, so it's hard to justify the survivalist fear-mongering.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Oh, lic now i get it. you are the equivalent of a real estate broker. you are promoting buying based on baseless fears. good on you. such a lovely and defensible stance. i'm sorry you made a horrible purchase decision, but to incite others to similar positions is almost criminal.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by dwell
over 16 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008

"all of whom are wondering what the hell they are going to do."

AR: what are their worries? Losing job & unable to pay mtg? ARM adjustments? Upside down? Ya know it's bad when all these possibilities are so common today.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

djradon, are you joking? you do realize that many of the people who have lost their jobs are not far from retirement? and they have health conditions? and they can't afford their medications? and even greater numbers will be so afflicted soon? i'm not just talking about mnahattan here, but even in this community, i think you'll be shocked at the end of the day.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

My purchase and sale decisions have worked out tremendously well, thanks.
When have I been the great promoter of real estate? Does my opinion above sound like a great promotion?

ar, you have no idea about my world. I have a feeling it would be a bit ironic that you call me insular. Maybe you and your friends are a bunch of gossips who just constantly complain about everything possible.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

aren't you the idiot who told us that the problem is lack of solid financial planning?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

LIC, well then, i'd say you have no idea of mine as well. Easy to cast stones, isn't it? but if one isn't available for comment other than silly attacks, then one's comments are rather baseless?

what a snotty comment, and baseless and sexist. you're a nasty piece of shit, who seems to have very little understanding of economics. maybe you and your friends are a bunch of gossips you congratulate each other on purchases in a declining market.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

A bit sensitive ar? How many personal shots at me have you taken when I have disagreed with you on a topic on this board? Countless. When you live in a glass house . . .

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

"My purchase and sale decisions have worked out tremendously well, thanks. "

I am always amazed at people who need to brag anonymously. Who cares?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

i'm not sensitive at all, because i have no respect for your opinion. although i withheld opinion until recently.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by Rhino86
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

People should wait for interest rates to rise. You more than make up for it in a cheaper price. Of course LICC disagrees.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

cc, that was silly. I was correcting a false claim by ar.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

what was silly? wondering about anonymous braggarts? still don't get it. what's the point? who are you trying to impress?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

wow, LIC is a sensitive flower. i recall very few instances in which i said anything anout his or others decisions to invest in LIC (jerkico is the exception, perhaps lic in disguise?). but now, licc, you must force my hand. almost any investment in lic has been, well, whatever, the last couple of years. good look on your investment.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by LICComment
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

cc, your comment. It was dumb. It is not bragging if you didn't bring up the topic and you are countering someone who made a false claim against you.

ar, I along with many, many others who have lived in LIC and have recently moved to LIC, who actually know about the area, are enjoying it and all the good things going on here. But hey, good luck with your apartment situation too.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

so in the world according to long island city, if i call you an idiot, its ok to tell me that you have three phds and are a practicing rocket scientist. absent my original comment, you would agree that you were merely yet another anonymous braggart?

doesn't a counter argument involve unbiased third party information such as a link or a quote from someone that is verifialbe? otherwise, aren't you just making up everything you say?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by Rhino86
over 16 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006

LICCs counters involve telling me that a Shiller sources graph of price to rent ratios from 1980-2004 is fabricated, backed by an NYT article about rental prices in 2000.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by columbiacounty
over 16 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009

so...i guess that casts some doubt on his claims to real estate riches? perhaps he is ready to join enricho with the 52 inch flat screen hanging out of his ass?

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by nyc10022
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

"wow, LIC is a sensitive flower. i recall very few instances in which i said anything anout his or others decisions to invest in LIC (jerkico is the exception, perhaps lic in disguise?). but now, licc, you must force my hand. almost any investment in lic has been, well, whatever, the last couple of years. good look on your investment. "

Just a week ago he went through a meltdown... he was screaming that Ivy Leaguers weren't smart, and then went into a renters are stupid tirade.

Clearly the guy is bitter.

Ignored comment. Unhide
Response by nyc10022
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

"My purchase and sale decisions have worked out tremendously well, thanks."

You were trying to lose money? ;-)

You can try the anonymous brag all you want, but anyone whose decisions worked out would not be lashing out so much... clearly you made some mistakes and are bitter about it.

Not to mention, for them to have worked out "tremendously well", you would have needed to have sold in 2007 or before...

Ignored comment. Unhide

Add Your Comment