30 year fixed interest rates rising, alot?
Started by khd
over 17 years ago
Posts: 215
Member since: Feb 2008
Discussion about
From 5.25 to 6% in the span of 2 weeks...what the deuce? Anyone have hypotheses as to what is going on?
cant have it all...tons of issuance, tons of debt, huge deficits, this is what happens when fed bails everybody out and gets your stocks higher - now we have to borrow it. We have 3Trln in bonds to issue over the next few years, you dont think they will want to borrow at such low rates? Treasury rollover is part of endgame
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/10/stages_of_the_credit_beast.html
supply and demand, we are issuing debt faster than buyers can absorb it. Watch the 10yr auction today, yields are risinf as we speak. Currently 3.91% up about .75% in a just a few short weeks. Reasons are many, pick your flavor. Fear of the currency, fear of inflation expectations rising, the panic run to treasuries last year is unwinding as economy attempts a recovery, worries about massive supply on the horizon, fear of the fed printing money, lack of confidence in Obama to understand that you can't spend your way to prosperity, comments by foreign govt's about diversifying away from the dollar. Choose whichever reason you like, they are all reasonable. One last point, instead of being a borrower, put yourselves in the shoes of the World's lenders. At current interest rates would you lend the U.S. MORE money. Most need one of 2 things, either a higher rate of return, or a cheaper currency, or both. hmmm seems like both are happening.
get my house price up! save my banks! get my stocks higher! and dammit, keep my rates low! and dont even think of raising my taxes!!
i want it all!!!!!
The increase in 30 year fix is bullish.
bullish, or bullsh*t?
Yes ericho, it is bullish (and in that sense probably premature or entirely misguided) but it's not good for RE. I mean, it's a torpedo directly to the RE boat which has already been debilitated enough, so kaboom, it sinks.
increase in 30 yr fix is bullish for what asset? homes? no way.