Big Housing news

i agree housing has bottomed in those areas that have seen the most dramatic declines-california, arizona, nevada, florida. we are talking about 50%+ declines in these states from peak to trough. truly amazing. however nyc is just at the beginning of our decline. we always lag. start our decline late and recover late. another 20-30% lop off in the cards. enjoy this month-over-month increase in activity, but year-over-year still dismal. on a stock chart this would be weak rise in a beaten down stock offering another opportunity to short.

hey Ill get bullish too on markets that are down 50% - screw you bears! You may have been right, but now your wrong, so HA!

You're expecting another 20-30% drop over what time frame? 6 months? 12 month? 3 years? 10 years?
Com'on, you're a trader yourself. Don't give me that!

BTW, futures breaking out. We might get a dow theory confirmation today.
GL

Commodities prices typically rise during deep recessions. Home Depot is doing well because homeowners are too strapped to call skilled tradesmen in for repairs, so they're going the DIY route. I don't think homebuilders buy from Home Depot or Lowe's.

Plus, very definitely, what cfranch said.

As bullish as I am, this is not the trigger I was looking for. In most markets that Lowes and Home Depot participate in, their sales are driven by home improvements and renovations, not new construction. This is usually a sign that people have resigned themselves to staying put and hunkering down for the long haul. I am looking forward signs that the velocity of transactions are increasing and supply is getting absorbed. Seems to only be occurring in communities where legitimate washout of pricing has taken place. Unfortunately, very little to do with NYC RE

yes i am a trader and a low volume counter trend move upward would have me shorting the stock. i think that describes nyc RE.

Cfranch,
What time frame are you looking at for this 20-30% drop?

BTW, futures breaking out. We might get a dow theory confirmation today.

SUCH A CHEEZY DAY TRADER. GOOD LUCK ON UR 500 SHARES OF SPY

ericho, even the CEO of goldman sachs calls this recovery shallow and that we have a long and protracted recession...but then again, who the hell is the ceo of goldman right! hes got nothing on ericho75 of streeteasy who claims a sharp recovery because of rising bond yields and rising material prices...

of course, many of us called for inflation to show up in rising material costs, food, energy, metals, etc.. as a side effect of actions taken to stem this crisis that will ultimately squeeze consumers and corporate profit margins because they wont be able to pass on these costs to consumers...but hey, why listen to those statements made a year ago. Its not like its happening or anything.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ac8C6y7BuXpQ

ericho-i think we drip lower for another 8-12 months

I think, among other things, we wait until coops' 2-year sublet limits run out, and Chester West who moved back into his parents' house in Westchester is forced to sell.

When do you think we will see improved inventory in the 1.5-1.8 million range on the UWS and downtown areas, priced at ~1000psf?All the bids I have placed have just stalled!They are still looking for 1100psf.

interest rates spiking today. have been on a tear. eventually going to hurt this bear market rally and most certainly going to kill this mini-buying spree in RE

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Shilling%20Expects%20U.S.%20Recession%20to%20Last%20%60Another%20Year'&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vaAuko.csdUs.asf

shilling on the green shoots.

After today's 10 year fiasco, tomorrow's long bond should be quiet interesting...

And with Mortgage Applications plummeting, you do the math....

Oil anyone?

Sorry I don't have the specifics, but I remember a story recently about the Obama administration offering various incentives to assist builders (tax breaks for buyers in some markets that only apply to new construction purchases, etc.) that are actually hurting current homeowners trying to sell, as well as adding to inventory, exacerbating troubles down the line.

the beige book report was also fairly awful, but you wouldn't know it by reading Bloomberg's headline.

long TBT and USO, looking to re-enter SRS

"Home Depot reiterated its forecast for same-store sales to decline in the high single digits."???