They dont mention year over year declines at all. But I did the math. ASKING rents are down year-over-year, and Citi has said previously that net effective rents could be another 10-15% cheaper including all incentives. Sure vacancy rates are lower but rents are down. Anyway, they DO mention increases in past reports...but to spare you the trouble here are the year over year decreases in rents.... [more]
They dont mention year over year declines at all. But I did the math. ASKING rents are down year-over-year, and Citi has said previously that net effective rents could be another 10-15% cheaper including all incentives.
Sure vacancy rates are lower but rents are down.
Anyway, they DO mention increases in past reports...but to spare you the trouble here are the year over year decreases in rents.
%change Studio 1 2 3
Chelsea -16% -12% -5% 8%
EV -11% -9% 4% -7%
Gramercy/Flatiron-19% -2% -15% -11%
Harlem 0% 11% 2% 6%
LES -15% -15% -15% -8%
ME -8% -8% -17% -11%
MW -13% -8% -10% -5%
MH 5% 7% -16% -22%
WS/BPC -5% -12% -9% -13%
MH -4% -19% -26% -26%
SoHo/TriBeCa -5% -6% -13% -9%
UES -16% -8% -24% -18%
UWS -13% -11% -28% -18%
WH 8% 7% 19% 4%
WV -2% -1% -7% -8%
Average -9% -7% -13% -11%
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Response by jason10006
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
Yes, 3 beds are pricier in some hoods...however in the case of Chelsea and Harlem, this is largely a function of brand new luxury doorman rentals and condos for rent, not an icnrease in older stock, IMO.
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Response by evnyc
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008
This is great information. Thanks for posting this, Jason. Interesting that Harlem has booked such increases. I thought it had been fairly hard-hit.
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Response by jason10006
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
I think I messed up slightly, they re-arranged the order but anyway its as follows:
Really I know from looking in Harlem now that this is mainly a function of so many luxury doorman rental bldgs and condos having just been built and being for rent. Trust me, the stuff that was built from 1850-2005 is a down by a lot more. Its just now there are units for $5000-20,000 for rent at places like 111 CPN and on CPE, etc.
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Response by jason10006
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
...or even just plain old $3000-$7000 asking rents for units at the Fitzgerald, 1481 5th, brownstone Lane 2, etc. Many of these were for sale and now are for sale/rent, or were just completed whether intended for sale of rent. This is huge percentage of the Harlem vacancies - maybe even half.
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Response by jason10006
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
As someone on curbed already pointed out, the "decline in vacancies" is TOTALLY seasonal. Year over year, the vacancy rate is up 50%.
in other words citi habitats is trying to hide the bad news.
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Response by Topper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008
Thanks for the posting, Jason. Very good information
Do you know if there is a soft copy available for this report? An Internet pdf?
"the vacancy rate is up 50%" you are absolutely right, sadly from a very low basis.
wonder at which level landlords will freak out. these are asking rents regardless of whether they are market rate or rent stab? i don't see the vacancy rate for Harlem :-( wonder also whether they regard as vacant a place that's both for sale and for rent.
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Response by jason10006
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
Murray Hill is in a tailspin. It was the neighborhood most filled with new college grads, and there ranks are being decimated. A guy I work with who lives there had his landlord START lease renewal negotiations at 15% down for there 2/2 doorman building. For me I would not like to live on frat row.
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Response by JKB
over 16 years ago
Posts: 162
Member since: Nov 2007
I'm with ya on that one, jason. I avoided the frat scene when I was the age to take part, now that I'm regrettably older ... no thanks.
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Response by notadmin
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3835
Member since: Jul 2008
so the party for landlords is officially over? when was the last time they had it tough? a decade ago? those rough patches tend to last long though. well, we will notice here in SE when the few landlords making comments here get more humble.
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Response by Topper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008
Thanks, TripleP!
I'd note that you can do your own comparisons over time by going to their library of reports.
yep, going there you noticed that the 3BR category seems to be actually 3BR or more. so guys looking for a 3BRs... your average might be lower that the number showed there, as it's biased upwards by 4BRs on.
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Response by jason10006
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
The vast majority of 3+ bedrooms in Manhattan are in fact just plain 3 bedrooms. THere are a minuscule number of 4+.
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Response by notadmin
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3835
Member since: Jul 2008
right now around 20% of those 3BR+ are actually 4BR+, not minuscule
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Response by OTNYC
over 16 years ago
Posts: 547
Member since: Feb 2009
Wow, UWS holding its own.
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Response by OTNYC
over 16 years ago
Posts: 547
Member since: Feb 2009
Wow, and UES getting decimated. Is this right??
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Response by jason10006
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
"right now around 20% of those 3BR+ are actually 4BR+, not minuscule"
Rentals? Outside of upper Manhattan (this survey lists only 2 upper Manhattan neighborhoods) Source? In NYC maybe, not in Manhattan below 96th. If I am wrong I will retract, but I would like a source.
Yes, the UES remember includes yorkville and the far easterly areas where lots of post-college types live. Google "Normandie Court" and you will find stories from a year ago saying even then that part of the UES was loosing its catchet with that crowd to places farther down like Murray Hill and Fidi. If they parsed out Carnegie and Lenox Hill it might look different.
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Response by jason10006
over 16 years ago
Posts: 5257
Member since: Jan 2009
Just did a SE search. In Manhattan excluding upper Manhattan and RI, they list a total of 321 4+ beds versus 1296 3+. So 20% might be right.
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Response by tenemental
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1282
Member since: Sep 2007
Jason, this is great. Saw your post on Curbed, too.
Lower East Side getting creamed. Maybe it's some of that "kids running out of parents' money" thing we've been talking about. Then again, it's also 2BR and 3BR+.
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Response by notadmin
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3835
Member since: Jul 2008
""right now around 20% of those 3BR+ are actually 4BR+, not minuscule"
Rentals? Outside of upper Manhattan (this survey lists only 2 upper Manhattan neighborhoods) Source? In NYC maybe, not in Manhattan below 96th. If I am wrong I will retract, but I would like a source."
dear, don't need you to retract. you are not my husband :-) and don't owe me explanations. just use SE, do for manhattan (19.8%) and for a fairly good approx of below 96th just leave upper (22%). are you good with math? (just curiosity)
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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 16 years ago
Posts: 9880
Member since: Mar 2009
It will be interesting to see the same report including the data from 9/1/2009 when it comes in.
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Response by notadmin
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3835
Member since: Jul 2008
are you expecting the rate of declines to accelerate?
admin, did you read the last post i had above yours? I can do math, can you read :)
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Response by notadmin
over 16 years ago
Posts: 3835
Member since: Jul 2008
it's just a typical mistake that people that are not good in math make. to assume that a small set of a small set is small also with respect to that one. do you see what i mean?
sort of, the miller samuel numbers, which Elliman spins out into a report, looks at different neighborhoods, size of apartment, type of apartment (condo, coop, luxury), and gives quarterly analysis in narrative and graph form. discusses inventory, discount from initial listing price, time on market, etc. go to jonathan miller's website once in a while, i think it's www.matrix.com.
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Response by Topper
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008
Go to the data tab at Miller Samuel and you should be able to create the above matrix on sales.
For the most part Manhattan prices seemed to have peaked in 2Q 2008 so you will generally see the biggest declines based upon the past three quarters, not the past four quarters. When the 2Q 2009 data come out early in July you will probably be seeing average price declines in the area of 25%. (The Fed's beige book reported this for Manhattan with reference to a large NYC appraiser - presumably Miller Samuel.) Price changes, of course, vary by neighborhood and property type just like rents.
Yes, 3 beds are pricier in some hoods...however in the case of Chelsea and Harlem, this is largely a function of brand new luxury doorman rentals and condos for rent, not an icnrease in older stock, IMO.
This is great information. Thanks for posting this, Jason. Interesting that Harlem has booked such increases. I thought it had been fairly hard-hit.
I think I messed up slightly, they re-arranged the order but anyway its as follows:
%change Studio 1 2 3
Chelsea -16% -12% -5% 8%
EV -11% -9% 4% -7%
Gramercy/Flatiron-19% -2% -15% -11%
Harlem 0% 11% 2% 6%
LES -15% -15% -15% -8%
ME -8% -8% -17% -11%
MW -13% -8% -10% -5%
MorningH 5% 7% -16% -22%
MurrayH -4% -19% -26% -26%
SoHo/TriBeC -5% -6% -13% -9%
UES -23% -32% -33% -9%
UWS 4% 19% 3% -22%
WS/BPC -13% -11% -28% -18%
WH 8% 7% 19% 4%
WV -2% -1% -7% -8%
Average -9% -7% -13% -11%
Really I know from looking in Harlem now that this is mainly a function of so many luxury doorman rental bldgs and condos having just been built and being for rent. Trust me, the stuff that was built from 1850-2005 is a down by a lot more. Its just now there are units for $5000-20,000 for rent at places like 111 CPN and on CPE, etc.
...or even just plain old $3000-$7000 asking rents for units at the Fitzgerald, 1481 5th, brownstone Lane 2, etc. Many of these were for sale and now are for sale/rent, or were just completed whether intended for sale of rent. This is huge percentage of the Harlem vacancies - maybe even half.
As someone on curbed already pointed out, the "decline in vacancies" is TOTALLY seasonal. Year over year, the vacancy rate is up 50%.
in other words citi habitats is trying to hide the bad news.
Thanks for the posting, Jason. Very good information
Do you know if there is a soft copy available for this report? An Internet pdf?
Thanks!
http://www.citi-habitats.com/media/pdf/2009-5-mra.pdf
"the vacancy rate is up 50%" you are absolutely right, sadly from a very low basis.
wonder at which level landlords will freak out. these are asking rents regardless of whether they are market rate or rent stab? i don't see the vacancy rate for Harlem :-( wonder also whether they regard as vacant a place that's both for sale and for rent.
Murray Hill is in a tailspin. It was the neighborhood most filled with new college grads, and there ranks are being decimated. A guy I work with who lives there had his landlord START lease renewal negotiations at 15% down for there 2/2 doorman building. For me I would not like to live on frat row.
I'm with ya on that one, jason. I avoided the frat scene when I was the age to take part, now that I'm regrettably older ... no thanks.
so the party for landlords is officially over? when was the last time they had it tough? a decade ago? those rough patches tend to last long though. well, we will notice here in SE when the few landlords making comments here get more humble.
Thanks, TripleP!
I'd note that you can do your own comparisons over time by going to their library of reports.
http://www.citi-habitats.com/market.php
yep, going there you noticed that the 3BR category seems to be actually 3BR or more. so guys looking for a 3BRs... your average might be lower that the number showed there, as it's biased upwards by 4BRs on.
The vast majority of 3+ bedrooms in Manhattan are in fact just plain 3 bedrooms. THere are a minuscule number of 4+.
right now around 20% of those 3BR+ are actually 4BR+, not minuscule
Wow, UWS holding its own.
Wow, and UES getting decimated. Is this right??
"right now around 20% of those 3BR+ are actually 4BR+, not minuscule"
Rentals? Outside of upper Manhattan (this survey lists only 2 upper Manhattan neighborhoods) Source? In NYC maybe, not in Manhattan below 96th. If I am wrong I will retract, but I would like a source.
Yes, the UES remember includes yorkville and the far easterly areas where lots of post-college types live. Google "Normandie Court" and you will find stories from a year ago saying even then that part of the UES was loosing its catchet with that crowd to places farther down like Murray Hill and Fidi. If they parsed out Carnegie and Lenox Hill it might look different.
Just did a SE search. In Manhattan excluding upper Manhattan and RI, they list a total of 321 4+ beds versus 1296 3+. So 20% might be right.
Jason, this is great. Saw your post on Curbed, too.
Lower East Side getting creamed. Maybe it's some of that "kids running out of parents' money" thing we've been talking about. Then again, it's also 2BR and 3BR+.
""right now around 20% of those 3BR+ are actually 4BR+, not minuscule"
Rentals? Outside of upper Manhattan (this survey lists only 2 upper Manhattan neighborhoods) Source? In NYC maybe, not in Manhattan below 96th. If I am wrong I will retract, but I would like a source."
dear, don't need you to retract. you are not my husband :-) and don't owe me explanations. just use SE, do for manhattan (19.8%) and for a fairly good approx of below 96th just leave upper (22%). are you good with math? (just curiosity)
It will be interesting to see the same report including the data from 9/1/2009 when it comes in.
are you expecting the rate of declines to accelerate?
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06112009/realestate/switch_sides_173596.htm
admin, did you read the last post i had above yours? I can do math, can you read :)
it's just a typical mistake that people that are not good in math make. to assume that a small set of a small set is small also with respect to that one. do you see what i mean?
Is this type analysis available for sales?
%change Studio 1 2 3
Chelsea -16% -12% -5% 8%
EV -11% -9% 4% -7%
Gramercy/Flatiron-19% -2% -15% -11%
Harlem 0% 11% 2% 6%
LES -15% -15% -15% -8%
ME -8% -8% -17% -11%
MW -13% -8% -10% -5%
MH 5% 7% -16% -22%
WS/BPC -5% -12% -9% -13%
MH -4% -19% -26% -26%
SoHo/TriBeCa -5% -6% -13% -9%
UES -16% -8% -24% -18%
UWS -13% -11% -28% -18%
WH 8% 7% 19% 4%
WV -2% -1% -7% -8%
Average -9% -7% -13% -11%
sort of, the miller samuel numbers, which Elliman spins out into a report, looks at different neighborhoods, size of apartment, type of apartment (condo, coop, luxury), and gives quarterly analysis in narrative and graph form. discusses inventory, discount from initial listing price, time on market, etc. go to jonathan miller's website once in a while, i think it's www.matrix.com.
Go to the data tab at Miller Samuel and you should be able to create the above matrix on sales.
http://www.millersamuel.com/data/index.php
For the most part Manhattan prices seemed to have peaked in 2Q 2008 so you will generally see the biggest declines based upon the past three quarters, not the past four quarters. When the 2Q 2009 data come out early in July you will probably be seeing average price declines in the area of 25%. (The Fed's beige book reported this for Manhattan with reference to a large NYC appraiser - presumably Miller Samuel.) Price changes, of course, vary by neighborhood and property type just like rents.