miniville: Housing Bottom Nowhere in Sight

that is some chart

don't know if I belive that "building costs" line (at least for this area).

"This would be a reduction of $70 billion in housing investment from the peak. Not the best news for Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW). "

As i pointed out last week, that's why the HD and LOW earnings news was so important.

Interesting evaluatin of a national market. I wonder how this plays in our own back yard? I think we experienced a 'double abnormal' experience. The tech bubble fueled a considerable RE bubble that was never corrected for in any meaningful way. This was followed by a housing bubble whose profits centered on Manhattan further increasing the size of our local RE bubble. A multi-year correction could leave Manhattan RE down another 25% from todays in-contract pricing. This would not make me happy.

Falco, for such a bearish guy, a 50% peak to trough (25% down from 70%) is not all that draconian of a case for Manhattan real estate. The graph for Manhattan is similar...all we have done is retrace to the very top of the previous range (of price to rents)....why shouldn't we fall to the middle of the normal range - if not the bottom?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHIAX#chart5:symbol=shiax;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

No green shoot here.
Distress debt have lead the general market over the past 3 years. Continue to make new highs.

And I love how the bulls think this is a 6 month correction, then a bounce straight up.