new foreclosure projections

So nearly 20X the current number by 2011. Thanks for these. I keep wondering what we're being braced for with the administration's 'smile, wave, hand out money' approach. This is a good reminder of how prudent waiting is right now.

The Street numbers I have seen suggest default liquidations will almost double by the first half of 2010 and then only gradually decline over the next several years. A big negative for the residential market as a whole.

That said, I think it will be somewhat less of a factor for Manhattan as coop boards have generally required more conservative financing.

New construction coming on stream over the next year, though, will continue to weigh on Manhattan prices. Much will be initially appear as rentals forcing down rents further...and thus increasing otherwise high price-to-rent ratios.

"That said, I think it will be somewhat less of a factor for Manhattan as coop boards have generally required more conservative financing."

but there's a point at which it falls off of a cliff: once prices go down by 40% (IF they do), unless you are in the "stuffier" buildings, Coop boards did/do not require that much equity.

Based on some of ther informal research I've done, this whole concept of people walking away from underwater houses is blown out of proportion. Accoridng to Fannie Mae, I believe that the number of walk aways is 0.5%. And why should someone walk away? When they move, they are going to have to pay rent for a less desireable apt.

And one thing I would do is I would NOT do is take forecloure projections from Realty Trac seriously. They are not a research firm. It is in their best interest to make these types of projections as, the more foreclosures there are, the more $$$ they make. Plus, the matter in which they count foreclosures is very questionable since, in most cases, they count the same properties 2 and 3 times as they go through each stage of foreclosure.

this whole "but it's different in manhattan" argument doesnt make sense to me. co-ops price in a market of substitute goods, which include condos and single family homes outside of manhattan. if westchester or nj sell off 50% from here, or if condo foreclosures become rife, it isn't like co-ops can stand untouched. not saying this happens -- but the corporate structure of the building doesn't protect it from large declines in the broader market.

meanwhile, i have to wonder how many of these co-op owners turned around after their purchases and spent all those reserves they showed to the board on hamptons real estate, etc.

did someone mention NJ???

While national foreclosure filings are on the rise, New Jersey filings dropped 41 percent in May from a year ago, RealtyTrac said Wednesday.
The cause for the decline is not entirely clear, and it may not point to any long-term trends, analysts said.

One explanation may be that troubled homeowners are seeking help in modifying their loans before they end up in foreclosure, according to Phyllis Salowe-Kaye, head of New Jersey Citizen Action, which counsels homeowners. The non-profit is continuing to see a high demand for foreclosure counseling, she said.

Another possibility: With mortgage rates dipping below 5 percent last month, more homeowners in distress may have been able to avoid foreclosure by refinancing out of troubled mortgages, said E. Robert Levy, head of the Mortgage Bankers Association of New Jersey.”

http://www.northjersey.com/business/news/47737482.html

N.J. bucks national trend with drop in foreclosures

http://www.northjersey.com/business/news/47737482.html