Oh my! Deutsche expects another -40% decline in the New York MSA

LICC to the rescue!

"Giving a blanket "buy or wait" response is a pretty dumb thing to do - everyone has different circumstances, not to mention that every place for sale has its different characteristics and (more importantly) pricing."

Didn't JM give just that - a blanket "buy" recommendation - 20 months ago, at the peak of the bubble ["Manhattan real estate is unique and the sooner you get in, the better"]? Or am I missing something?

What I'm saying is that it's idiotic to buy a place at today's asking prices, when those asking prices will be MUCH lower 12-18 months from now. I never said don't look at all. Yeah, if you find a ridiculous bargain available or can successfully lowball somebody [30% below ask], go ahead. However, if you want a large selection of bargain prices from which to choose, you will need to wait awhile until sellers come to terms with reality.

“Who cares what caused the meltdown?”

That could be the dumbest question I have ever seen on this board. Bsex, you win the donkey award for the week. The donkey award means that every time you post, a donkey is placed by your screen name. You can’t see it, but everyone else can.

“Really??? You said 20 months ago that people should buy into the "unique" Manhattan RE market "the sooner, the better". Sounds like you were on the wrong side giving that advice.”

That was a snark comment given to a poster that I have had a long history with. I’m not making excuses for the comment, but that certainly wasn’t “a blanket "buy" recommendation”. Do you know the difference?

“I'm just looking for a little intellectual honesty on this board”

You are definitely in the wrong place!

“that doesn't seem to be your strong suit.”

Actually, that is one of my strong suits and why the bears don’t like me much

“Put simply, you tried to denigrate a study by cherrypicking the farthest part of an MSA that accounts for 0.3% of its population and saying that the study is invalid because this is included.”

Malthus, this wasn’t cherrypicking. It was exaggeration and a bit of over dramatic humor to prove the point. Is this your first rodeo? You need to loosen up a bit. Undo your top button or take off your shoes or something.

“I think it is you that needs some defending and I don't see anybody jumping to it.”

steve will defend me. He knows I’m right.

"That could be the dumbest question I have ever seen on this board. Bsex, you win the donkey award for the week. The donkey award means that every time you post, a donkey is placed by your screen name. You can’t see it, but everyone else can."

Seriously, why are you here, JM? To win debating points? Is that really all you care about? Fine, go ahead and "win" all the debating points you can - it's not going to change the reality that others have been trying to make you see (if the scales were ever to fall from your eyes). Good luck - I give up trying.

I like you JM, I just don't agree with you.

"Seriously, why are you here, JM? To win debating points?"

Bsex, I seem to remember that you attacked me, unprovoked I might add. I can't help that in the process of defending myself I made you look a little silly. I actually thought you were a worthy adversary until the "Who cares what caused the meltdown?” comment. Man, you really stepped in sh&t there.

"Good luck - I give up trying."

Good luck to you as well BSex and enjoy the donkey award.

"I like you JM, I just don't agree with you."

Yeah but you really want to agree with me. That's the difference.

there are many ways i could answer that.

the report was crap. didn't necessarily reach a wrong conclusion, but its methods would make any statistician cringe. although i think there is value to looking at a region, particularly when the high wage earners are so dispersed as they are here. unfortunately real-time demographic info is thin to non-existent (at least that I know of), and that's what you'd need for some serious analyses.

in general? i'd love to be more optimistic, maybe that's the point you're making.

"Didn't JM give just that - a blanket "buy" recommendation - 20 months ago, at the peak of the bubble ["Manhattan real estate is unique and the sooner you get in, the better"]? Or am I missing something?"

Not to get snarky, but you are. First, it's a bit out of context, and second, he has said quite a few times that it's not a sentiment he stands by. Nothing wrong with that, in my book.

"What I'm saying is that it's idiotic to buy a place at today's asking prices, when those asking prices will be MUCH lower 12-18 months from now. I never said don't look at all. Yeah, if you find a ridiculous bargain available or can successfully lowball somebody [30% below ask], go ahead. However, if you want a large selection of bargain prices from which to choose, you will need to wait awhile until sellers come to terms with reality."

BSexposer, I don't know if that's the best approach:

1) There's no guarantee each place you're seriously interested in will be priced "MUCH lower 12-18 months from now." It really is a case-by-case basis - some will, others won't (could sell, not budge much on price, or be taken off the market). There's no reliable degree of probability either since the sample size is likely to be so small.

2) Getting 30% below ask (I know it's just your example, but bear with my point here) doesn't mean much, as it's dependent on asking prices, which can obviously be grossly inflated. Getting a strong percentage off a reasonable comp (I think many people would say 2005-6 levels, but choose what you think is right) is a better approach. And I'm pretty sure you CAN find those deals now. Exactly why you can't make a blanket recommendation.

3) What real benefit do you have from "a large selection of bargain prices" when all you're presumably looking for is one? There isn't one really, which is why there's no specific time to "buy or wait." "Waiting for sellers to come to terms with reality" doesn't strike me as proactive enough, that's all I'm saying.

"steve will defend me. He knows I’m right."

Defend you against what?

"What real benefit do you have from "a large selection of bargain prices" when all you're presumably looking for is one?"

B/c then you can get the perfect place at a great price (rather than a good place at a decent price).

"I can't help that in the process of defending myself I made you look a little silly. I actually thought you were a worthy adversary until the "Who cares what caused the meltdown?” comment. Man, you really stepped in sh&t there."

Worthy adversary? So you ARE just interested in debating points - OK, thanks for confirming. I think all you've really done is make yourself look silly.

"B/c then you can get the perfect place at a great price (rather than a good place at a decent price)."

I think you're missing the point. You don't need to find 47 great places (and by great I include the cost), or even 2 for that matter. You only need one that suits your needs and budget. You may have to do a little more digging, but I assume that most people spending six or seven figures on something will be doing that anyway.

"You may have to do a little more digging..."

bjw - if I am looking for gold, I would rather look when it is abundant everywhere, rather than try to find a needle in a haystack. That's why I held a substantial portion of my net worth in cash until the market cracked last year. Could I have located ahead of time the one or two stocks that (it turned out) managed to survive the downturn unscathed and put all of my money in those couple stocks? Yeah, maybe. Would it have been worth the effort? No. If you want to spend all of your free time looking for the few sellers who have seen the light in this town, good luck to you - I will wait until the majority have (and this clearly hasn't happened yet).

BSexposer, I get what you're saying. I just happen to disagree that it isn't worth the effort - buying a home is a very expensive proposition, even if prices fall as much as the biggest bear here might say. And I don't think it takes THAT much time to do a solid search, visit the apts, and bid/negotiate. It's just a matter of trial and error (more or less) - the same method you'd use anyway. I know a lot of less-than-credible people bring this up often, but if you take the easy way out, you may find a little more competition in the same room. That's what I don't get - people who claim to be "waiting it out" to find a great bargain seem to be very lax about the whole thing. Great places at great prices won't just fall in your lap - there's some work involved.

“didn't necessarily reach a wrong conclusion”

AR, that depends entirely on what conclusion you are referring to

"Defend you against what?"

Exactly!

"So you ARE just interested in debating points"

I really have no idea what that means. If you are asking if I'm interested in debating some knucklehead that thinks he can tear apart my posts from 19 months ago with any credibility than you already have the answer to that question.

"I think all you've really done is make yourself look silly."

If that helps you sleep at night then you just think that big boy but remember, you are the one with the flashing donkey by your name.

"I really have no idea what that means."

Should've figured.

"you are the one with the flashing donkey by your name"

Why do I bother? Why?

"people who claim to be "waiting it out" to find a great bargain seem to be very lax about the whole thing. Great places at great prices won't just fall in your lap - there's some work involved"

Well, there's a certain threshold test I use to determine whether it's time yet to start looking seriously. I go to the listings of apts for sale in my price range on this website and see what sellers are asking per sq foot. If most of the sellers are still asking btwn $800 and $1200 (which it seems they still are), I know that they aren't serious yet and are still trying to "get out" of bad purchases without a loss. I'll be damned if I am going to bail anyone one out who bought in 2006 and now thinks he can dupe me into taking his overpriced property for what he paid (that's called the greater fool theory of investing).

"Defend you against what?"

Exactly!

¿?

BSex, can we hug it out?

BSexposer, don't you find that a bit too arbitrary and emotional to make a good decision?

"BSexposer, don't you find that a bit too arbitrary and emotional to make a good decision?"

No - would it have been "arbitrary and emotional" if I said the same thing about buying AOL stock in 1999 [which I stupidly did, incidentally - ah, the ignorance of youth]? I don't think so. Price is what you pay, value is what you get - and I know for a fact I am not getting value at the prices sellers are currently asking.

"BSex, can we hug it out?"

Maybe, but only if you take the flashing donkey sign down first.

Is the housing bust about to take Manhattan?
Reuters: Sun Jun 14, 2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55D1ON20090614

considering that Deutsche Bank has taken billions of dollars in losses in toxic mortgages, why should we listen to anything they have to say? They are not exactly the smartest people in the room.

I should also point out that Deutsche Bank is a NAZI bank as well and was in bed with Hitler:

After Adolf Hitler came to power, instituting the Third Reich, Deutsche Bank dismissed its three Jewish board members in 1933. In subsequent years Deutsche Bank took part in the aryanization of Jewish-owned businesses: according to its own historians, the bank was involved in 363 such confiscations by November 1938. During the war, Deutsche Bank incorporated other banks that fell into German hands during the occupation of Eastern Europe. Deutsche provided banking facilities for the Gestapo and loaned the funds used to build the Auschwitz camp and the nearby IG Farben facilities. Deutsche Bank revealed its involvement in Auschwitz in February 1999. In December 1999 Deutsche, along with other major German companies, contributed to a $5.2 billion compensation fund following lawsuits brought by Holocaust survivors. The history of Deutsche Bank during the Second World War has been documented by independent historians commissioned by the Bank.

Personally I would never listen to anything that a a bnk that funded the concentration camps has to say.

For example, here is a place I would consider buying:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372716-condo-14-prince-street-nolita-new-york

Note that it sold for like $650K in 2003, then this idiot paid almost double for it in 2006 - and now he wants to unload it for what he paid. Obviously nobody was interested, so he took it off the market. WOULD IN GOD'S NAME WOULD I BAIL A FOOL LIKE THIS OUT OF A MORONIC PURCHASE HE MADE 3 YEARS AGO? Why???? No doubt he expected prices to keep going up so he could flip the place for a profit. Again, the greater fool theory of investing. I am sure that a lot of properties on the market are the result of similar dumb investment decisions. But you won't see me bailing any of these fools out. Cheers!

"Maybe, but only if you take the flashing donkey sign down first."

Done. You can even be the next to give it out.

BSexposer,

I know that building pretty well, as it's one I considered when looking in Nolita. I wouldn't say it's insanely overpriced, but you have to expect these antics when dealing with Sukenik (this is one of the benefits of doing the work, you learn which brokers tend to be a bit more, shall we say, "optimistic"). But here's what I mean by emotional: "WOULD IN GOD'S NAME WOULD I BAIL A FOOL LIKE THIS OUT OF A MORONIC PURCHASE HE MADE 3 YEARS AGO? Why????" I hope it's not THAT disconcerting or upsetting to you. Move on. Find another place that would work for you. Instead of worrying about whether or not you're "bailing a fool out," I think your goals are better served by a little emotional restraint. I see where you're coming from (and understand the frustrations - I spent a LONG time looking), but as I said, am a bit mystified by the lackadaisical approach sometimes. Seriously though, good luck to you either way. And yes, please give out the flashing donkey sign to the next deserving poster (I can think of a few).

"I think your goals are better served by a little emotional restraint"

bjw - I think my emotional restraint is evidenced by the fact that I didn't get carried away and buy an overpriced apt a couple of years ago when "everyone else" was doing it. The emotional people are those who falsely thought they could jump in and out and "MAKE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS!!! - wheeee!!!". Trust me, I'm not emotionally involved - I just think it is HILARIOUS that a person like this thinks he can get $1.2MM for a place like this in this economic climate. It's just too damn funny. Nor am I in the least bit frustrated - I'm in no rush to buy anything - whenever sellers accept reality, however, I will be there to capitalize. Until that day comes, no way.

Besides, I have my $$$ in investments that I absolutely love right now - why mess up a good thing?

"For example, here is a place I would consider buying:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372716-condo-14-prince-street-nolita-new-york"

It's interesting that they ERASED the room dimensions on the floor plan*, because this building is one of the worst offenders I've seen in terms of the Offering Plan stated square footage vs what you get inside the units.

* In the building floor plans, in an unprecedented presentation, they not only list the room dimnesions, but the square footage of each individual room. For 2A the LR has "27'8" x 10'8" 295 Sq Ft", BR! has "16'8" X 9'10" 163 Sq Ft", BR2 has "8'3" x 14'10" 122 Sq Ft", the kitchen has no dimensions, but has "56 Sq Ft". i can just about guarantee you the bath is 7' x 5' for 35 Sq Ft. That's 671 Sq Ft plus ..... what?

The brokers on this deal are really shady, especially Sukenik.

BSex simply being a realist...re mkts take yrs to correct down or rise ..see Schiller for ton of evidence...folks who think all this ends quickly havent studied the history

The_President
about 9 hours ago
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I should also point out that Deutsche Bank is a NAZI bank as well and was in bed with Hitler:

Interesting point, but you misunderstand Nazis. Nazi's weren't an invading force or large group of powerful alients who came from outerspace and occupied Germany and took over the otherwise peaceful country and forced atrocities that otherwise Germans wouldn't have committed. Deutsche Bank is a Deutsche (German) bank. The German people in their entirety were responsible for the Holocaust and World War II. The Germans were not in bed with Hitler. Hitler and the Germans are one in the same. Talking about the Nazis as being the group who committed attrocities, or referencing Nazi Germany as a distinction to regular old good Octoberfest and good car engineering happy happy Germany is a big lie.

German, not Nazi

Banks and financial institutions
Deutshebank
Dresdner http://www.icmrindia.org/casestudies/catalogue/Business%20Strategy3/BSTA098.htm
Allianz

chemical companies producing Zyklon B
IG Farben http://www.icmrindia.org/casestudies/catalogue/Business%20Strategy3/BSTA098.htm
BASF
Bayer
Agfa
Hoechst

car companies
Volkswagen - Hitler's People's Car (Folks' Car - Folks Wagon)
Audi
Porsche
Mercedes slave labor

etc.

DB's history is entirely irrelevant when deciding the merits of their conclusions in the report being discussed here.

what about the fact that they took over $4 Billion in losses last year, is that relevant?

Huzzah Sir Winston! If we were to apply the President's logic to its end, shouldn't we then also boycott/disregard a vast swath of corporate and other institutions that have historical roots in the slave trade (Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., CSX Corp) or building nuclear weapons (Honeywell, Bechtel, the University of Chicago, CalTech)?

I'm all for companies that build nukes, provided of course they built them for the U.S.

> “In other words, the doomsday crowd was wrong about predicting a market apocalypse...until a market > apocalypse occurred.”

Ha. True enough...

> No, they were 100% wrong about the reasons for the correction (except maybe a couple like Urbandigs,
> MMAfia). They all know they missed it but claim victory anyway. Look, if I predict that the Yankees
> will win tonight because of a home run by Derek Jeter and the Yankees actually win tonight because
> of a bloop single by Brett Gardner - am I right? What if I then told everyone how smart I was
> because I called it right? It is both hilarious and nauseating.

Juiceman seems to be confusing cause and effect, probably intentionally to avoid admitting his mistakes.

The vast majority of bulls I can recall pointing out that the housing market was in bubble mode and would pop, that prices were just not sustainable. Robert Shiller seemed to be the Papa Smurf for most.

Now, that the RE bubble pop predicted led to OTHER effects. Doesn't change the accuracy of the bubble pop prediction - it just made the consequences first.

Juiceman's analogy is a horribly illogical one. RE popped, just as predicted. That it has extra effects doesn't change the fact that the prediction was wrong... just as Jeter then going home and getting laid and then being elected president for his heroics doesn't change the fact that the game was one.

For a better analogy, I predicted that some moron is going to fall and hurt himself.

The moron falls and hurts himself.

Then he also lands on someone, and hurts them. Then he dies.

All true, and the prediction is still right.

I look at it as... the bulls were more right than they knew... that was one horrific bubble.

"Well, there's a certain threshold test I use to determine whether it's time yet to start looking seriously. I go to the listings of apts for sale in my price range on this website and see what sellers are asking per sq foot. If most of the sellers are still asking btwn $800 and $1200 (which it seems they still are), I know that they aren't serious yet and are still trying to "get out" of bad purchases without a loss. I'll be damned if I am going to bail anyone one out who bought in 2006 and now thinks he can dupe me into taking his overpriced property for what he paid (that's called the greater fool theory of investing)."

BS, thats a well thought out approach. More folks should follow that lead...

Anyone at this point in time that sees a resurgence in the RE market in Manhattan is a die hard true beliver in the amazing power of Manhattan RE or a recent purchaser. Buy RE, become a bull...spin. I don't live in the camp where it's armagedon for RE, just brutal retrenchment in pricing.

Pres: what about Israeli nuclear weapons? Or the fact that the Israeli's actually uses submarines built by a subsidiary of ThyssenKrupp to deliver their nuclear second-strike capbility? ThyssenKrupp is the predecessor of two key corporations in the Nazi industrial base, and their submarine subsidiary, HDW, was part of the Nazi Kriegsmarine ("War Navy").

see:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/24/AR2006082401050.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin_class_submarine#cite_note-0

Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do to survive.

Buying from old enemies to defend against new ones might not feel great, but sometimes its your only option.

nyc- nonetheless, ignoring credible analysis based on irrelevant associations is utterly ridiculous.

I do agree with that. If Hitler did good math, its still good math.

Much like if Deutsche Bank has sound reasoning for their prediction that NY RE has another 40% to fall, you should listen, based on the message, not the messenger. I choose to listen to the message and I'm keeping my Krugerrands under my sofa for now, and not putting into a down payment.

and Deutsche Bank did not have "sound reasoning" for their prediction. Even Jon Miller questioned their methodology.

reminder - includes fights between nyc10022 and Hitler
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/11716-all-fights-between-nyc10022-and-someone-else-should-just-be-here

alpine, take math first. then come back to us.

"Juiceman's analogy is a horribly illogical one. RE popped, just as predicted. That it has extra effects doesn't change the fact that the prediction was wrong just as Jeter then going home and getting laid and then being elected president for his heroics doesn't change the fact that the game was one."

Funny, you have yet to say anything in this thread that shows why my argument is illogical. Your weak attempt above doesn't cut it and your cause and effect malarkey as a distraction attempt is funny. It has nothing to do with what the logic of my statement at all. Did you predict the game was won or didn't you? You already said in this thread you did not, so move on.

When nyc10022 says something is illogical, odds are high that it is highly so.

Yes, I did, and I was right. You denied the bubble pop, and you were wrong.

You can insert the words "malarkey" and "distraction" and whatever else you want here, but, jesus man, you are the one who said this:

"2005 levels? Your talking about a 15-20%+ correction. Ain't gonna happen."

Doesn't get much more wrong than that... and everything else you've said on it since is the exact "distraction" attempt you're now trying to fling at others.

Are you now claiming you didn't say it?

> Your weak attempt above doesn't cut it and your cause and effect malarkey as a distraction attempt
> is funny.

And having nothing other to say to a 10 line response other than "weak" is usually a sign that the respondent doesn't have a logical counter argument.

"And having nothing other to say to a 10 line response other than "weak" is usually a sign that the respondent doesn't have a logical counter argument."

LMAO. Your asking me to refute an arguement when you didn't refute mine in the first place. You still haven't proved why my original comment is "illogical".

Same old EddieWilson, pulling out old posts when he is trapped in a lie. Read this thread Eddie, I've addressed all these old posts. You however, have not adressed the fact that you were dead wrong (as you said in this thread), that you are EddieWilson, and that you still haven't proved why my argument is "illogical".

Seems that Shiller disagrees with the DB report:

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIbMtWW6cVO4

alpine, people have short memories. All these bears were drooling over this stupid DB report. Proves yet again that "logic" does not fit with the bear agenda. JuiceMan was right again.

plenty of banks issue their housing predictions. The DB one, however, seems to be getting the most attnetion because it satisfies the agenda of the SE bears.

Seems that Shiller disagrees with the DB report:
Not necessarily, The DB report spoke of NY the Schiller piece is speaking national. Both are probably correct. NY was last to go down, so it may have more to go, Across the country areas that have gone down substantially and started to decline earlier are probably closer to bottom...

> LMAO. Your asking me to refute an arguement when you didn't refute mine in the first place. You
> still haven't proved why my original comment is "illogical".

Right up there for all to see Juiceman. Just because you didn't read it doesn't mean its not there.

> All these bears were drooling over this stupid DB report.

Wouldn't be juiceman without another strawman argument!

Juiceman on this thread:
> > What do you think of the Deutesche study?
me on this thread:
> I think its pretty lousy.

ROTFL. whoops.

Juiceman, juiceman, I'd expect better, even from you...

And you didn't address this..

""2005 levels? Your talking about a 15-20%+ correction. Ain't gonna happen."

Doesn't get much more wrong than that... and everything else you've said on it since is the exact "distraction" attempt you're now trying to fling at others.

Are you now claiming you didn't say it?"

Riversider, Generous of you to say "not necessarily". They know these pieces are addressing different markets.

You might be giving too much credit to "they"...

"Right up there for all to see Juiceman. Just because you didn't read it doesn't mean its not there."

wow, you mean this is your argument of "illogical"?

"RE popped, just as predicted. That it has extra effects doesn't change the fact that the prediction was wrong... just as Jeter then going home and getting laid and then being elected president for his heroics doesn't change the fact that the game was one."

LMAO. Only nyc10022 can convince himself of himself. Try again sunshine, throwing a bunch of words on a page doesn't prove that my point was "illogical"

"> I think its pretty lousy."

I was actually surprised you didn't post it initially while trumping median declines in White Plains. That would have been a very nyc10022 thing to do.

"And you didn't address this.."

I've addressed all of it, in this thread no less. Just read it. EddieWilson on the other hand, has addressed nothing....

more typical bull from SE favorite sidestepper.

I'm back after maybe a year or at least 9 months, starting to check out real estate again, I have no prejudgements if I'm going to buy or rent again, but it's disconcerting to see some of the same offending personalities here. A little search and I see that EddieWilson is here in the form now of NYC10022, and Juiceman too (although I think you were wrong at least I'd get a drink with you). At least stevejhx seems to have been retired, maybe he's taking more creative writing classes at Columbia or moved to Brazil to trade stocks. And doesn't look like Petrfiz is here either, thank goodness.
Anyway, let my re-education begin, as I happen to watch a show on my DVR that has a commercial with Billy Mays. :(