Big Pay Packages Return to Wall Street

great news for real estate! Speaking of pay, whatever happened to that 90% AIG bonus tax? I think it died in the Senate, just as I predicted. I remember not that long ago there a million threads on SE discussing how the bonus tax was going to crush RE values. I told everyone that they were wrong and took a lot of heat. Looks like I was right.

...but...but...but

Wall Street is supposed to be dead! Manhattan real-estate is supposed to be dead! Armageddon! Life is over! Nobody is supposed to buy luxury real estate anymore! The luxury is ssector is finished! The days of high pay is gone - for good!! I can now afford Manhattan since everyone will be poor!!!

But..but...but....how will Manhattan prices drop to my budget ($500 psf) now that Wall Street pay will go up?

Nooooooo.

GREAT NEWS!

They can all use those bonuses to start paying our $800 billion back!

hey, haz the bullz circle jerk-off finished, yet?

Didn't want to butt in in the middle of this pure PUMP and DUMP.... but here's the latest tidbit:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/07/02/business/AP-US-Manhattan-Housing.html?_r=1

hey jsmitty, howz the 1965 H line doing... I can't wait till the FINAL REVEAL.... over or under $1.5MM?

Quoting Dottie/Sam Miller.. Poor is the NEW RICH

"In a positive sign, however, sales picked up at the end of the second quarter, Herman said, especially on the lower end of the market as first-time homebuyers entered the market lured by relatively affordable prices and a federal tax credit of $8,000.
Sixty-one percent of all sales were below $1 million -- which is considered the lower-end by New York standards -- compared to 49 percent a year ago, Miller said"

suckz on that wonderbra!

Big Pay Packages RETURN to Wall Street'
Big Pay Packages RETURN to Wall Street'
Big Pay Packages RETURN to Wall Street'
Big Pay Packages RETURN to Wall Street'
Big Pay Packages RETURN to Wall Street'

KEY WORD "WILL RETURN"

Enjoy the housing slum while you can, because it's not going to last forever!!!!!!!!!!!! Poor things.

Did you think prices and sales would increase during a deep recession?

To summarize:

-High paying jobs will return.
-Wall Street bonuses will return.
-Banks will begin hiring.
-Prices will go up.
-The city will diversify.
-Manhattan will never drop 70% (or whatever silly number one of you threw around"
-Job losses will reverse in the next 10 months.
-You will forever be bitter renter.

Ciao!!!

Oh... you've got a 100 yr horizon.... my bad.... my bad....

This will all happen before 2011.

The funny part is that Goldman itself denied it.

Not to mention they admitted bonuses will be primarily stock.

But, whatever lets you sleep at night.

some money will definitely come back, but the mass amounts of money that drove the boom is gone. Gone just like Bear , ML and Lehman. We'll revisit this in August and see how things look. Im still betting that leveraged buyers will be puking apartments before any recovery comes through.

If these past 2 years have taught WS workers anything, it's to save for a rainy day. I doubt that if this is the first high 6-figure bonus you're getting, that you are going to splurge on a million-dollar + apt. Might go out for a few nice dinners, an extravagant vacation...

Last I checked, neither restaurants nor Bora Bora (and not extell development) take restricted stock.

Good point, there will be a sig. chunk in stock. Ah, for the days when GS was a partnership and everyone got paid in cash :)

NYC10023: Good point.

Some time ago on this board, someone was talking about how sentiment changed among finance workers in the late 80s after that crash.

After that crash happened, they said that a lot of their friends vowed never to take out a mortgage. Finance income is too volatile to justify a mortgage. So, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens again and we go back to whatever you can afford in cash for a little while.

Not to mention, if all this record profit is supposed to hit, why isn't anyone putting their money with their mouths are.

Goldman stock is off 100 from peak.

Skinny: yeah, and of course, a lot of those folks swore never to buy in NYC and missed the bottom of the market in the early 90s. F*cked if you are, f*cked if you don't :)

> Speaking of pay, whatever happened to that 90% AIG bonus tax?

Didn't need it... because they gave much of the bonuses back!

> I remember not that long ago there a million threads on SE discussing
> how the bonus tax was going to crush RE values. I told everyone that
> they were wrong and took a lot of heat.

You WERE wrong. RE values ARE being crushed.
You want to remind everyone what a mistake you made? The whole "manhattan is not down 20%" line.

Alpine, nobody more wrong than you!

Memories are short on Wall St. That TARP money became an albatross the minute it was clear that in exchange for accepting this money, they'd have to meet certain expectations. GS, for one, doesn't want any regulation into how they pay their executives. Bonuses this year are going to be ginormous, just wait.

My banker friends tell me big bonuses are back!

For this year, anyway, I think most bankers will save it and splurge on smaller items. Unless you're talking someone who is already sitting on 10m+ and just got another 5m.

Anecdote. At my old place of work, people who started work in the late 80s, early 90s were divided into 2 camps. The majority waited until they had a significant amount saved or HAD to buy (expanding family) thereby missing the bottom of the market and being priced out of the city. The minority bought right away in NYC - either they knew they were not the family types or had some other personal thing going on or rich parents as backup.

> My banker friends tell me big bonuses are back!

And they're the same friends that told him nothing eventful happened in Manhattan since July.

Apparently, he and all the other janitors know the real scoop.

"Unless you're talking someone who is already sitting on 10m+ and just got another 5m. "

Of course, a huge chunk of the money they were sitting on was in restricted stock. We all know how that went.

A few years worth of OLD bonuses decimated.

I'm talking cash. A lot of people (unfortunately not everyone), liquidated restricted stock the minute they vested. Stock prices have come back somewhat, and there will be people (not a large number, brokers, so don't get excited), who will be cashing in sig. amounts soon.

Nothing eventful enough happened in Manhattan to reverse the population, fool.

> A lot of people (unfortunately not everyone), liquidated restricted stock the minute they vested.

Unfortunately, the vast majority did not in recent years. Remember, that shares have been down for a while... these guys didn't want to liquidate at prices they thought were temporarily low. That was pretty universal for everyone whose pay package was uncovered.... and pretty standard among all my bank friends.

> Stock prices have come back somewhat, and there will be people (not a large number, brokers, so
> don't get excited), who will be cashing in sig. amounts soon

"back" means 50% or more down... thats pretty decimated in my book.

10022 - opposite among the people I know (admitted not a huge number). Everyone liquidated the minute they got the stock. A few were burnt in the dot-com era. You know you're already "long" the co. - if they continue to do well, you do well. Why would you not hedge yourself by at least liquidating?

Okay, our friends and acquaintances obviously don't come from the same pool. Danger of anecdotal "evidence". My point is, brokers will get needlessly excited by the few sales that occur because there are people walking the streets who are in banking and are now going to spend part of their acc. wealth.

wonderbra... can you give me a cup size, I need a visual...thxs.

My bubbies have hard nipples.

wow silicone... how'd thunk it?

The last 3 posts are offensive and unnecessary.

Sorry grandpa.

I don't think anyone needs to weep for Wall Street. Except for those in the stratosphere, and except for those who were marginal players at best, the majority will be 70%-80% of the peak and will be above the peak within 2-3 years. I understand how that is upsetting to people who aren't on Wall Street. The biggest at-risk segment in New York City is traditional media if they aren't successfully adapting to digital media.

"10022 - opposite among the people I know (admitted not a huge number). Everyone liquidated the minute they got the stock. A few were burnt in the dot-com era. You know you're already "long" the co. - if they continue to do well, you do well. Why would you not hedge yourself by at least liquidating? "

When stock prices were high, sure. Before the declines, sure. But once they were 50% down, liquidating as a hedge didn't seem like a smart move to them anymore. I know hosts of folks who tried to wait it out...

"Danger of anecdotal "evidence"."
As I said, look at every pay package that was released in the media... nobody cashed out in the decline before the blowup. I pointed that out specifically so we weren't talking about "folks we know".

And where is all of this banking revenue going to come from to pay bonuses? Q1-2 revenue was all fixed income trading from large spreads - that's largely gone going forward. 60-70% of revenue from 2004-2007 was from sponsors - that's essentially zero now. Restructuring will do well (obviously). The HY mkt will probably shut down again in a month or two (and issuance is a fraction of what it used to be). I'll believe the bonuses when I see them.

Again, as I said... there is a reason even goldman stock is 100 points below its peak.

Guys,
My gut says bonuses will be decent, unless Obama puts a lid on them, which he won't.
What incentive is there for the these firms to not pay out big bonuses. If things go bad again,
they can come back to uncle Sam.
However, this may not translate to increased real estate activity. The problem is not that
people do not have money to pay down payments. The problem is that of confidence about the future,
which doesn't get resolved by getting next year's bonus.

right, cause when things go bad in the market, bonuses get paid out.
Talk is cheap, let's wait and see...cause my bet is total income doesn't come back the way it ever was.
twats

> What incentive is there for the these firms to not pay out big bonuses.

Simple... if they don't make money. Bonuses are tied to revenues. If those drop, its not really a question anymore.